Golden Nugget win totals vs. S&P
Simple article, has the SB Nation take on the Golden Nugget win totals posted in yesterday's thread. They've added the S&P projections from Bill Connelly. Something tells me that Alum96 (and I hope he returns soon) would caution against using S&P this way, but that may be a week-to-week thing vs. full season projections. In any case, Connelly is listed as a co-author so I assume the method has his blessing.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/5/20/11716618/ncaa-footba…
Items to note:
- Michigan has the second highest projected win total, of any team noted, per S&P.
- Clemson 10.04, Michigan 9.63, Oklahoma 9.62
- S&P is more pessimistic than Golden Nugget in most cases, though close overall
- OSU a lock on the 8.5 over? Not so, says S&P
- Large variances on Tennessee, FSU, Houston, and TCU
- Jason likes Michigan over 9.5. Bud likes OSU over 8.5. I like Jason.
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The British were pulling a Klinsmann that day.
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I'd like to say I intended for my comment to generate these responses, but I'd be lying. Bravo all around.
await the return of Alum96.
Meyer's teams have won nine or more games during the regular season 12 times. With Barrett coming back, I'd take the over on 8.5.
I don't like this.
I still agree with it.
If Barrett gets hurt, they'll be lucky to make 8 wins. But if he is healthy, it's hard to see more than 2 losses. It's all or nothing for them.
i feel like a lot of these win projections are very underinflated. when was the last time a non-fickell coached ohio state went 8-4 or worse? granted they're losing a lot of talent but still, i don't see them falling off that much with urban at the helm.
We need them to go 10-2.
If we are Big Ten champs against an 8-4 OSU and 7-5 MSU we run a serious risk of getting shut out of the CFP if it's tight. Especially if OSU and MSU have losses against OU and ND respectively.
Careful what you wish for.
It's very unlikely to matter at all. For a one loss Big Ten champion to be left out would be extraordinary. If the Big Ten gets killed in the non-conf games, that's not good. Otherwise, we're beating teams that beat them and are having better than expected seasons. If we're looking at it as a beauty contest, Harbaugh and a resurgent Michigan are tough to beat.
OSU barely made the CFP that year. Had Wisky been able to score 10 points in the Big Ten Championship game, OSU would have been out.
You never want to leave it in the hands of subjective judges who are going to be reluctant to leave the Pac 12 or ND out of the picture multiple times in a row if they can avoid it.
If we have 1 loss, to say Iowa, and one of those teams has one loss, we could easily be left out if our best win is over an 8-4 OSU.
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My preference would be for OSU to be undefeated and ranked #1 going into the game in Columbus. Beating them will be particularly sweet.
...the other part of me hopes that OSU has an absolutely miserable season from the get-go, and that we just pour the salt in the open wound at the end of the season. Of course, beating a GOOD OSU team is always a special thing, and something we haven't done since 2003.
But up until then, the rest of the season? Well, living in Ohio, nothing makes me happier than waking up on Sunday mornings to Buckeye weeping and gnashing of teeth -- and it hasn't happened a whole helluva lot in the past 15 years, to say the least!
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I either win money or osu goes 8-4 or worse. Whats the downside?
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Yeah, got to be honest - it might be worth a couple hundred to me to see OSU go 8-4 while losing to Michigan at home.
Wife does not agree however, so I will be merely an observer.
will still be very good. Unfortunately, they are an away game this year which I see as our one regular season loss. If ti was at home, another story, but they have a whole season to get their new starters up and running.
I don't like that our 3 toughest games are on the road (Iowa, MSU, OSU). Pretty confident we take MSU, Iowa will be tougher than we think. That could be a second loss, but I think we pull it out in a close game.