Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities

Submitted by joegeo on November 26th, 2023 at 9:38 AM

You're about to witness the greatest miracle of the machine age. Based on the revolutionary computation law of probability, this machine will tell us the precise order of the 4 golden tickets.

Here they are: all 32 combinations. Some are more likely than others, of course. Here are the current lines: Mich by 21, Texas by 11.5, Oregon by 9, FSU by 5.5, Georgia by 4.5.

G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU (all favorites win)
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Ohio St
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU 
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) Alabama 
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Georgia 4) Alabama
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Georgia

Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes anyways:
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Ohio St 
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas 
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Ohio St 
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Texas 
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Mich
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Georgia
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) FSU 2) Oregon 3) Texas  4) Alabama
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) FSU 2) Alabama 3) Oregon 4) Mich
***G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Alabama  2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Alabama 2) Oregon 3) Georgia 4) Mich

***8 1-loss teams!!!

Notes:
I think that if Mich and Wash/Oregon are in the semifinal, they will work the seeding as best as they can to match them up for the last true rose bowl.

I think Alabama is in if they beat Georgia despite head to head loss to Texas.

Rooting Guide: 
Michigan over Iowa (just win): In this case, any of Texas, Alabama, or FSU winning eliminates Ohio St (according to my scientific predictions)

In case of disaster: Texas or FSU loss gives Michigan a solid case to still qualify. 

umfan83

November 26th, 2023 at 11:04 PM ^

So at least according to your projections, if Michigan loses they still make it in 12/16 scenarios, so about 75% chance of getting in with a loss. 
 

They’re not going to lose but I find it interesting.