Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
You're about to witness the greatest miracle of the machine age. Based on the revolutionary computation law of probability, this machine will tell us the precise order of the 4 golden tickets.
Here they are: all 32 combinations. Some are more likely than others, of course. Here are the current lines: Mich by 21, Texas by 11.5, Oregon by 9, FSU by 5.5, Georgia by 4.5.
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU (all favorites win)
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Ohio St
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) Alabama
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Georgia 4) Alabama
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Georgia
Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes anyways:
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Mich
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Georgia
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) FSU 2) Oregon 3) Texas 4) Alabama
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) FSU 2) Alabama 3) Oregon 4) Mich
***G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Alabama 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Alabama 2) Oregon 3) Georgia 4) Mich
***8 1-loss teams!!!
Notes:
I think that if Mich and Wash/Oregon are in the semifinal, they will work the seeding as best as they can to match them up for the last true rose bowl.
I think Alabama is in if they beat Georgia despite head to head loss to Texas.
Rooting Guide:
Michigan over Iowa (just win): In this case, any of Texas, Alabama, or FSU winning eliminates Ohio St (according to my scientific predictions)
In case of disaster: Texas or FSU loss gives Michigan a solid case to still qualify.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
Beat Iowa.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:04 PM ^
So at least according to your projections, if Michigan loses they still make it in 12/16 scenarios, so about 75% chance of getting in with a loss.
They’re not going to lose but I find it interesting.