Defense wins championships; offense qualifies for bowls?
Many UM fans are on-edge headed into Big Ten play, seeing as last season we started 4-0 before league opponents began to really exploit the weaknesses in our back 7 and the wheels totally came off. Similar to the 2009 squad, this year's team is led by its offense and hopes the D can do just enough to let the O pile up adquate points. Yet the 2009 Michigan offense, though dangerous, was inconsistent and really began to struggle once a few key injuries took their toll. The 2010 offense, by contrast, is a fully-operational Death Star with the deflector shield up and running. Now, we all know that "defense wins championships," but the incredible potency of the offense got me wondering--short of a Big Ten championship, which most UM fans will concede is not altogether realistic this season--how well can an offensive juggernaut with a suspect D exepct to perform?
The answer, it appears, is "not too shabby." In 2008 and 2009, there were nine FBS teams that finished within the top 20 in total offense and in the bottom 20 in total defense (2008 Houston, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette; 2009 Houston, Troy, Texas A&M, Utah St., Florida Atlantic, and UTEP). Combined, these teams put up a 70-52 record (57.4%). Two of those teams reached double-digit wins (2008 Rice was 10-3; 2009 Houston was 10-4), and five of the nine reached bowl games (a sixth, Louisiana-Lafayette, qualified for a bowl at 6-6 but didn't go to a bowl, probably because they are Louisiana-Lafayette). Looking only at the true cream-of-the crop offenses (i.e., those that finished in the top 5 nationally), all four teams (2008 Houston, 2009 Troy, Texas A&M, Houston) reached the post season.
Certainly we hope Michigan's defense will continue to improve as the young players gain experience and confidence. But even if the defense remains in the bottom-sixth of the rankings all year, the chances of a respectable 8-4 type finish and a return to the post-season look very good if the offensive heroics continue.
September 27th, 2010 at 7:47 PM ^
Our secondary was bad last year, but our Turnovers had more to do with a lot of the losses in the Big Ten than anything else i thought.
September 27th, 2010 at 7:48 PM ^
A lot of U-M fans are on edge because that's just their nature.
September 27th, 2010 at 9:07 PM ^
The kind of people who find a $50 lying on the sidewalk and complain that it isn't a C note.
September 27th, 2010 at 7:48 PM ^
A big flaw in this reasoning is the teams that you use to support your argument. None of those teams consistently played the rigorous schedule that we will face. It is hard to compare them. However, if we continue to rape the ocular cavities of our opponents' defenses during the big ten season, I think you may be right. I still don't like that nauseous feeling I get every time our defense takes the field though.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:23 PM ^
That was sort of my concern as well. The only team from a BCS automatic-qualifying conference to have a top-20 offense and a bottom-20 defense that made a bowl was 2009 Texas A&M , and even they only managed 6-6 (plus they lost their bowl game and finished under .500).
September 27th, 2010 at 8:02 PM ^
Offense and Defense win championsips. One is not more important than the other. I would think considering the success of certain teams in the NFL (I'll grant you that it's the NFL and not college), like the Saints vs. Colts match up last year, that people would be more open to the idea of offense winning championships. It seems that the old idea of defense winning championships is being threatened. Granted, as I said before, I've always thought that idea was stupid, but last year the Saints D was ranked 25th, and the Colts D was ranked 18th.
I can't find the stats for college football, but I would imagine Alabama had one of the best defenses last year, but my main point is that both sides of the ball are equal. If an offense is better than a defense, then the offense will typically win out, whereas if a defense is better than an offense, then the defense will typically win out.
Look at our team this year. It could be argued that a few of the teams we've played have had better defenses than we have presently, certainly Notre Dame's D was heads above ours, however, due to the strength of our offense we were able to win that game (amongst others).
I think "defense wins championships" is more of a sports meme overall then an actual, relevant, piece of information. I tend to think that match ups are more important than a strict D vs. O view on things.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:08 PM ^
9 of the 10 BCS champions since 2000 had top 10 defenses. The only violator was Ohio State whose defense was ranked 23rd in their championship year.
I've been told that 10 straight national champions isn't enough of a sample size, so take it for what it's worth.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:26 PM ^
And virtually all of those teams scored a crapload of points, too. Those were great teams, not one-dimensional squads.
September 27th, 2010 at 9:04 PM ^
They were certainly capable of scoring points, I'm not saying that offense doesn't matter. Ohio State's team ranked in the 40's in terms of offense. About half of those teams were in the 20 range (including Alabama 2009).
Take list of championship caliber teams and the one with the best defense will probably take home the crown. Hell just look at BCS game match-ups, the team with the better defense usually wins. There are some exceptions involving two top 5 defenses. The big exception is 2002 Ohio State beat Miami on some controversial plays.
Many times, the team with the lower ranked offense won the championship game.
There is a clear premium to having a great defense.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:40 PM ^
September 27th, 2010 at 9:09 PM ^
You have to be strong on both sides of the ball if you want to win alot of games. Not to mention, one DOES affect the other. If the offense controls the clock, the defense will get plenty of time to rest and perform at a higher level. So I just thought I'd pipe in and say Amen brother! GO BLUE!!
September 28th, 2010 at 10:13 AM ^
you will also find a high turnover margin. The Saints top 3 in TOM, 39 takeaways. Teams can play "bend don't break" if they get off the field with TOs. You can call it luck to some degree but in some circumstances, in this case the saints, they were scoring a lot of points so teams were forced to push the ball downfield. Yards and turnovers ensue. I don't think the colts have a "bad" defense but they aren't amazing. They won the AFC with a +2 TOM. They do have Peyton Manning though....that helps.
September 27th, 2010 at 7:57 PM ^
The 2004 team had a midlle of the pack B10 defense that gave up 5 yards a play.
It can happen.
September 27th, 2010 at 8:47 PM ^
September 27th, 2010 at 10:38 PM ^
not enough points guys, so be gentle... this seemed like possibly the most applicable thread. am i reading into troy woolfolk's most recent tweet too much? -> "former teammate brandon herron"
September 27th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^
It looks to me like it was a joke. No need for panic.
September 27th, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^
Scoring defense and scoring offense isn't necessarily reflective of the strengths of those 2 units. It includes a lot of other variables (special teams play, turnovers, average starting field position, number of plays a game for both sides of the ball, etc) that play a role. A team that prevents points at a premium rate may actually have a better offense and special teams unit than defensive unit.
For example, the offense may rarely turn the ball over, consistently drive the ball down the field and the special teams may consistently excel in hidden yardage and combine with the teams offense to give their defense much easier starting field position than the majority of defenses face. As a result, they would be expected to allow fewer points anyway. Additionally, the overall strength of a team could play a role. If a team is rarely trailing and often leads by a wide margin, then the opponent will likely have to become a one dimensional offense and throw much more often than they would prefer too. This will make it easier for the defense to defend and also play a role in the number of points they allow.