College Hockey's Pairwise Predictor Up and Running
USCHO's annual pairwise predictor is up and running now that Denver has beat Wisconsin. It can be found at http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwp/
The concept is that you can choose who wins each game of each conference tourney's final weekend, and it will spit out what the pairwise rankings will be. Michigan needs to be a top 4 in the pairwise to get a #1 overall seed. I have run one scenario, which I envision to be a worst case scenario for Michigan and can get them down to a three way tie for third, and we lose the threeway tiebreak, as we have the lowest RPI of the three. My scenario is as follows, if anyone is able to get us lower that'd be interesting as well. It'd also be interesting to see how likely it is for both Michigan and Minnesota to be #1 seeds, as well as watching the 3 CCHA teams on the bubble.
Atlantic Hockey
- Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara
- Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst
- Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT
CCHA
- Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami
- Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan
- Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Bowling Green
- Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan
ECAC
- Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard
- Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate
- Championship game: Union defeats Cornell
- Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate
Hockey East
- Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine
- Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence
- Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College
WCHA
- Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech
- Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State
- Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver
- Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
- Championship game: Minnesota defeats Minnesota-Duluth
March 12th, 2012 at 12:39 AM ^
thats a really cool thing to play around with.
March 12th, 2012 at 12:45 AM ^
That's what she said.
March 12th, 2012 at 12:58 AM ^
I hardly know what I'm doing with this, but I have a scenario that places us sixth behind Minnesota-Duluth, BC, BU, Union, and Miami.
Atlantic Hockey
- Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT
- Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst
- Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara
CCHA
- Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan
- Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan
- Championship game: Miami defeats Bowling Green
- Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
ECAC
- Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard
- Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate
- Championship game: Union defeats Cornell
- Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate
Hockey East
- Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine
- Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence
- Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College
WCHA
- Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech
- Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State
- Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver
- Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
- Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota
I found another setup where Michigan falls to a two.
- Michigan gets swept at the Joe.
- Minnesota, BU, Cornell, and AFA win their tournaments.
- Plus some other stuff in the 3rd place games.
However, while looking around I have also found some scenarios where we get swept and still get the 1 seed.
Bottom line is, if we can win one game at the Joe, I think we're in great shape!
Pretty much what everyone else has said - looks like the worst Michigan can do is the 6th overall seed. I also tried to see if Michigan could take the top overall seed; it looks like we can't flip the BC comparison. We can be the 2nd overall seed though, eg:
- WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
- WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
- WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
- WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
- WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
- Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
- Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
- Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College.
- ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
- ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
- ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
- ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
- CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
- CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
- CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
- CCHA Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
- Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
- Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
- Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Niagara defeats Air Force.
I prefer this version:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php
It lists all the common opponents in the individual comparisons.
Basically, the upshot for Michigan is, unless we lose two games at the Joe, we're pretty much locked into the number two or three spot overall. That almost ensures us the top seed in Green Bay, because the committee will likely want to keep Minnesota-Duluth in St. Paul, and both they and Minnesota are ranked high enough that they won't meet in the first round. I'm making travel plans for Green Bay now. (It's a relatively easy trip for me from Chicago anyway.)
I'd love to see MSU left out in the cold yet again. Would've been nice to see Merrimack beat Maine, that would've helped.
Michigan wins one this weekend, and we should get a #1 overall seed.
they got smacked around by Miami, and I am emotionally invested in the idea of them not making the tournament.
March 12th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^
Since it seems that MIchigan only needs one win to lock up a one seed, they couldn't have asked for a much better match-up to. Granted BGSU is playing well right now, but drawing the 11 seed for your CCHA semi-final game is pretty nice.
Because of the way the Pairwise works, losing to a team like Bowling Green, which is not "under consideration," doesn't hurt your Pairwise nearly as much as losing to a better team does.