CFP Playoff Scenarios
For the conference finals, UM and Georgia are heavy favorites. TCU and USC, not so much. If UM and Georgia win, what happens based on different TCU/USC outcomes?
First question is who the committee says is first replacement (#5): OSU or Alabama? I think they go with OSU given a historical disdain for 2 loss teams. We'll have an answer this evening.
Second question is who jumps whom if teams lose (assuming losses aren't blowout losses here). Here's my thoughts:
Scenario 1: TCU wins; USC wins
3 - TCU; 4 - USC
Scenario 2: TCU wins; USC loses
3 - TCU; 4 - OSU
Scenario 3: TCU loses; USC wins
3 - USC; 4 - TCU
Scenario 4 (chaos scenario): TCU loses; USC loses
3 - TCU; 4 - OSU
November 28th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
If the committee puts OSU in over TCU if they lose it will be absolute robbery. TCU beat every single team in the Big 12, which in a way makes playing an extra game more potential for bad than good. Every team that is not playing Saturday should be treated as having an additional loss. TCU should not get penalized for losing their first game of the season in a game OSU didn’t make in their own conference. You shouldn’t be rewarded for not making your CCG.
I would go as far as to say if USC loses they should be ahead of OSU. Again, they shouldn’t be penalized for making a game OSU didn’t. I know OSU fans will claim that if the B1G didn’t have divisions they would be in the B1GCG like the Big 12 and PAC-12 does. Again, I don’t want to hear it. They had a chance to lock up a bid at home and lost.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
I agree about TCU. However, OSU vs USC is a different story. I would put, right now, OSU over USC. I feel that OSU has the better resume and looks better as a team. But USC has the potential to win another game and be a conference champion, in which case then I would put them in over OSU. If USC loses, not only do they have two losses, they also are not conference champion so USC's resume is not as strong as OSU's (great metrics, only lost to #2 UM).
November 28th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I'm just gonna throw this out there...what if Michigan loses to Purdue, and Georgia loses to LSU, and TCU and USC both win?
Second scenario: Michigan loses, Georgia loses, and TCU and USC BOTH lose?
November 28th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Scenario #1:
1. TCU
2. USC
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
Scenario #2:
1.Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC/OSU/Bama.
I feel in the second scenario you'd get the "you can't be punished by playing in a bonus game" narrative
November 28th, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
Lets add all the 4 team scenarios just for fun:
S1: UGA, UM, TCU, USC all win - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. TCU, 4. USC
S2: UM, TCU, USC win, UGA loses - 1. UM, 2. TCU, 3. UGA, 4. USC
S3: UGA, TCU, USC win, UM loses - 1. UGA, 2. TCU, 3. USC, 4. UM (USC conference title and better loss bumps them, but I can see 3/4 being switched due to Michigan's dominance the rest of year and to avoid the SF rematch)
S4: UGA, UM, USC win, TCU loses - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. USC, 4. TCU
S5: UGA, UM, TCU win, USC loses - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. TCU, 4. OSU
S6: TCU and USC win, UGA and UM lose - 1. TCU, 2. USC, 3. UGA, 4. UM
S7: UGA and UM win, TCU and USC lose - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. TCU, 4. OSU
S8: UGA and TCU win, UM and USC lose - 1. UGA, 2. USC, 3. UM, 4. OSU
S9: UGA and USC win, TCU and UM lose - 1. UGA, 2. USC, 3. UM, 4. TCU (possibly UM is ahead of USC but same matchup either way)
S10: UM and USC win, UGA and TCU lose - 1. UM, 2. USC, 3. UGA, 4. TCU (UGA and USC might be swapped)
S11: UM and TCU win, UGA and USC lose - 1. UM, 2. TCU, 3. UGA, 4. OSU (possibly the only scenario where Michigan/OSU rematch in semis is possible. You can't drop UGA below OSU even if you are trying to avoid that rematch, too blatant)
S12: UGA wins, UM, TCU and USC lose - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. TCU, 4. OSU (feels weird to not move down UM and TCU after a loss but seems like the only plausible action here)
S13: UM wins, UGA, TCU and USC lose - 1. UM, 2. UGA, 3. OSU, 4. TCU (a little less blatant attempt to avoid UM/OSU rematch)
S14: TCU wins, UGA, UM and USC lose - 1. TCU, 2. UGA, 3. UM, 4. OSU
S15: USC wins, UGA, UM and TCU lose - fuck this is a tough one. 1. USC, 2. UGA, 3. UM, 4. TCU (USC goes to top based on conf title, everyone else slides down 1)
S16: Everyone loses - 1. UGA, 2. UM, 3. TCU, 4. OSU (everything stays the same except OSU jumps in)
I think that's all scenarios but if I missed one let me know.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
THANKS for doing this!
So hey -- it looks like OSU has about a 50% chance to make the playoffs. The good news is that there is only ONE scenario that has Michigan 2 and OSU 3. That's the scenario I DO NOT WANT.
By the way, I'm curious what you think here -- what if Michigan wins with an eyepopping score. Something like, 47-3. And Georgia squeaks by 20-18. Does Michigan go to 1 then? Or will this not matter in the slightest?
November 28th, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
Go TCU
Go USC
Fuck Ohio. They dont deserve a shot in the playoff after getting hammered in their own back yard by 22 points.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
I agree, but the fact of the matter is, if we don't get "chalk" results in all four games, well...OSU has got a very good chance of sliding into that 4 seed.