CC: Looking back, and a question we don't seem to be asking

Submitted by Gitback on

The general tenor on the board concerning the state of the program seems to be that Hoke was a bad hire from the start and that his initial success in 2011 was primarily due to Denard "saving us" inspite of Hoke's ineptituted, as well as a defense which  improved but ultimately simply enjoyed being on the positive side of the bell curve when it came to turnover margin and 50/50 plays (which even then was acknowledged as unsustainable).  

It seems to me that if Hoke, Borgess, Funk et. al. are/were inept, which is clearly the belief now, then either they've always been inept or somehow became inept over the course of the past few seasons.  We talk a lot about an increase in recruited talent not translating into on-field success and, rightly, attribute that to coaching... and some of us have gone to 11 with the vitriol.  

But this staff, by all accounts, NAILED IT in 2011.  Despite what many posters, contributors, and even Brian might recall now, while the 2011 season was happening we did NOT think we were winning despite this staff's (lack of) ability, we thought we were winning because of their ability.  We lauded the fact that they came into a situation with limited personnel, limited depth, and players who were unsuited to Hoke's particular vision of football and guided them to an 11 win, BCS bowl season.  It seems to me that if this staff is now just a group of inept, out-of-their-depth neophites, we'd have picked up on that in 2011 (we certainly seem to see it that way now).  But go back and read the write ups and comments after the Nebraska win, and the OSU win.

Here's what Brian had to say after the Nebraska pummeling:

I was wrong. I was mad when Michigan hired Brady Hoke because I though it was a capitulation, that it was Michigan returning to the things that made it such a frustrating team to root for once Lloyd Carr stopped having the best defense in the universe.
It turns out as I was sitting in the stands burning up inside as Rocky Harvey scatbacked Illinois to victory or Michigan punted itself into oblivion against OSU, Brady Hoke was standing on a sideline burning up inside, whether it was at Michigan Stadium or somewhere in the MAC. Hoke does not want to lead by 17. He wants to lead by 21, dammit. If anything, the playcalling this year has been too aggressive what with the constant unleashing of the dragon
If this feels like getting back to Michigan, it's the Michigan of your dreams, the Michigan you left back in Peoria when you shipped to Saigon. You've got one good picture of her and she's that pretty every day in an ugly place. "This Is Michigan" is about the idea, not the reality—at least not a reality from the last 20 years. So far. Days like Saturday inch us closer to the picture in our heads.

Here were his thoughts after OSU:

I could not have been more wrong about Hoke. He's not the milquetoast win-by-not-losing sort. He's not even average. He has a gut feel that is on par with every RPG minimaxing engineer out there. Forged by the fires of MAC defenses, Hoke has learned to push when he should and pull back when he should. I would not want to play poker against him.
I know Hoke talks about toughness and physicalness even if the latter isn't really a word, and that's fine and important. It's half of the equation. The other half is putting your guys in position to take advantage of that. Hoke does that. MANBALL: pretty much not pejorative anymore.

Undertand, this isn't a Brian "callout;" we all thought we were seeing the same thing here.  (Go read how we - and I use "we" as the "collective mood of the board" - felt after Hoke won the Conference Coach of the Year award.)  I was in agreement with Brian's analysis then, and I'm more or less on board with the "this staff looks out of its depth now" sentiment.  But while we're duscussing how we got from THERE to HERE, the conversation is always about how much this staff, particulary on offense, just seems to "not get it."  There is no talk about how they went from "getting it" to, well, "not."  

Now... after the Sugar Bowl we were all a little *yeesh* about the offense, and had no illusions that the Alabama game in Dallas was going to go well for us.  Brian's write-up mentions worries that now seem prescient.  

ALL RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A TALK. Holy pants the offense. This was the third time this year Michigan's offense was just beyond terrible; they lost the other two but horseshoed themselves the Sugar Bowl. It was imperative that Michigan establish something VT had to react to, but they never did. Their big tactical innovation for this game was a not-very-spread formation with a TE, a tailback, and Odoms in motion for a jet sweep fake. That worked on the first play of the game when Odoms got the edge and then hardly ever again. I don't understand Michigan's emphasis on running to the perimeter against a defense like VT's that thrives on getting their safeties to tackle in space. Meanwhile, Michigan receivers got zero separation all night, allowing VT to tee off on the run with impunity. Michigan needs an athleticism upgrade there.

However, we didn't think this staff was out of its depth by any stretch.  Now, we act like it's been evident since day one and only Denard, Molk, Martin, Kovacs and luck saved us that year.  We went from calling out other fan bases for ripping on Hoke's looks, his weight and his demeanor, to doing it ourselves.  

These things we point to now, these "basic," "egregious," and "nearly comical" errors that are so plain to us today, were some of them there in 2011?  To me, it's more than "we now have more data."  I can see how the results of this season and the two prior outweigh 2011; but the rhetoric now is "they've clearly always been incompetent," yet that wasn't our take back then.  We Legitimately thought these coaches were good 4 years ago, now there's no way they were ever anything but a gang of monkey's fucking a football.  

How did WE, as a blog, a board, a group of "compatriots," get from THERE to HERE?  Lack of results on the field, sure.  But to go from one extreme to the other in terms of our affection for this staff, our confidence in them... talk to me a little bit about your experience going from "there" to "here."

Wolfman

October 8th, 2014 at 8:56 PM ^

w/just a few minor changes imMho. Denard never had his Slaton and Devin never had his Denard. As the wise baldur said, "they only put him on the field when he was going to get the ball." Imagie, if you will, this scenario, one that would have been used at any junior high level. They had decided to stick with the zone read because it was the wisest move. Now if you had two jr. high coaches that were running the read with keeper option you would want two things in the backfield: 1) QB capable of reading the DE and 2) the RB that when given the ball could do the most damage. They could have easily done that with these two, utilizing the no.1 ranked dual threat at qb Devin and what turned out to be the best RB in America, Denard. Instead they chose to do so only when the defense would know DR would get the ball. If they had kept them both in the backfield throughout the entire game and ran it the way RR drew it up we would have had the best 2 man combo in the backfield when Ricky L was deciding whether to keep or pitch or when Rob Lytle humbly accepted the job of being the lead blocker for Flash Gordon. Virtually unstoppable is my guess as was the case with the former two examples. Apologizing in advance for my paragraph breaks not working.

Mittelstadt

October 8th, 2014 at 4:52 PM ^

and more thin every season.  Most successful coaches are maniacal about detail with their teams so they can eke out any advantage.  And they're very strategic thinkers.

Hoke has proven to be neither.

Brady is not a detail guy.   

And in 2011 our opponents didn't know what to expect and by the grace of God we were very lucky several times that year.  Do you really feel we out-strategized anyone?

A detailed coach who's maniacal about it would not be able to go without a headset.

It would drive most of us on this board nuts to not be part of the strategic discussion.  That's most of the fun of the game.

Again, I love Brady's love of Michigan and his loyalty.  

But you are what your record says you are.

 

 

Leonhall

October 8th, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^

I've gotta call bullshit on this, I just don't see RR winning 11 games in any conference besides the big east. No way he beats state, Msu had his offense figured out to a cue, there was zero creativity to his offense...I'm not convinced he would have played fitz


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Wolfman

October 8th, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^

We don't have to revisit it. We got a good DC at that time, created turnovers at a rate we hadn't seen before and Al and Brady were wise enough to allow the offense to operate the way it had been taught.  That's probably one of the few times you'll see Brady and wise in th same sentence. 

bjk

October 8th, 2014 at 9:03 PM ^

for Hoke to realize Brandon was sucking his guts out. Film study, Woow Factor, Unimformz. Brandon said early on that football was the goose with the golden eggs, and that he was going to focus on it. Maybe this is the outcome of an egoistic know-nothing giving the football program his brand of TLC. I may be going delusional here, but could Brandon have mandated Bo-era style ball on his handpicked coach in his dream job?

MichiganTeacher

October 8th, 2014 at 9:05 PM ^

I think Hoke absolutely got dumber, and I think he did it on purpose. Allow me to explain.

2011 - Hoke comes in. He sees what happened with RR. Sees that RR tanked 2008, and says "I have to WIN NOW" to avoid RR's fate. He does everything he can to WIN NOW. He uses Denard as Denard should be used (well, almost, anyway). He runs schemes on O and D that are suited to his team's actual strengths, not the MANBALL Hoke wants.

2012 - Hoke figures that now he has the grace period RR never got. After a Sugar Bowl victory, Hoke figures, well, now I'm the Bomb Diggity, I can do what I want. He moves away from spread concepts and tries to force schemes on his team that don't work. He neglects the WIN NOW strategy in favor of development and forcing the team to play 'his style.' The problem here was that he was terrible at player development outside of the DL, as evidenced by how he 'developed' Bellomy and DG this year.

2013 - Hoke assumes this year he finally has his guys and it will work. 5-0 only encourages him. All downhill from there.

I think the psychology of the situation was pretty huge.

In reply to by MichiganTeacher

Yeoman

October 8th, 2014 at 10:13 PM ^

Hoke's been a head coach for quite a while now and he's never forced a style on a coordinator. They come in and run what they know how to run--Hoke's willingness to avoid meddling, to let his assistants do their jobs, was a consistent theme when he first came and people were talking about why he was good to work with.

Why would we think that had suddenly changed here, when the one thing that's different in this job from the others is that here he's got a boss that's just the opposite, to the point that the coordinators' film sessions are held with the AD and not with Hoke? An AD with a background in commodity marketing, an AD that's selected a particular style as the new (and return of the old) brand of Michigan football, a particular style that the coordinators have mysteriously gravitated towards?

Nothing's going to change when we swap head coaches. I'm not quite sure who'd even want the job, under the circumstances. In a lot of ways I think Brandon would be in the same situation, looking for a new HC, that RR was in after he fired Shafer.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with the style Brandon wants to see, any more than there was anything inherently wrong with RR's preferred 3-3-5. What's wrong is hiring people and demanding that they do something other than what they know how to do. What's even worse is following that up by kneecapping them. It has a tendency to scare off prospective replacements.

SFBayAreaBlue

October 8th, 2014 at 10:34 PM ^

When Hoke was hired my immediate thought was that we were returning to the days of high floor-low ceiling, 8-4 every year until the next coach could come in 4 years later.  I was wrong.  The ceiling was elevated because of Denard and rainbow farting unicorns blowing lucky bounces and armpunt receptions our way.  The floor looks to be much lower, with already a 7-6 season and this year looks to be worse. 

I wrote this four years ago:

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/end-season-catharsis-nsfw-language

That was me biting my tongue about the coaching change, taking a "Wait and See" attitude. And instead venting my anger at everything else.  I wanted to be supportive of the new guy, even if I didn't believe in him. 

Now I can openly say he's the wrong guy for the job.  I wanted Jim Harbaugh 4 years ago. I want him for coach now.  But the fact is he probably won't be.  And there just aren't any other obvious choices. 

Miles was right

October 8th, 2014 at 11:19 PM ^

Our two qbs do not seem like gamers at all...i dont think Gardner is prepared, and I think Morris is full of himself.


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