California vs. Florida - Approachs to COVID?
First, STAY HOME AND STAY SAFE until further notice:
On March 19, California had 1,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus. That same day, it was the first state to issue a stay at home order for the whole state.
Three days later on March 22, Florida also hit 1,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus. It did not issue a stay at home order until the Governor reluctantly did on April 3. It was one of the last states. (Although 7 never did.)
Florida has been widely criticized for its late response. Florida (Miami) was supposed to be one of the next "hot spots" after NYC. It has also been criticized for allowing church services, wrestling, massage parlors as "essential businesses." Anecdotal evidence from the internet indicates many people in Florida are still moving about, without masks, etc. On the other hand, California was praised for its quick response.
Both states continued to see an increase in cases over time, but then....
Florida appears to have flattened its curve.
California appears to have flattened its curve.
Both states appear to be past the peak according to the IHME model (which also indicates Florida has done less distancing measures). (Of course, models are only as good as what you know at the time.)
It is hard to see how one approach has been significantly better than the other after a month. Is there more to it?
California has more cases and more deaths, but it also has more people. Florida is filled with more elderly people, but its hospitals have not been overrun as predicted.
Is it possible that regular social distancing alone is enough? Why hasn't there been a bigger difference to date? Shouldn't four weeks tell us something or is it too early to tell?
As states begin to re-open, shouldn't we examine how different approaches have been effective?
Anyway, STAY HOME AND STAY SAFE until further notice.
April 21st, 2020 at 11:14 PM ^
I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Seriously.
So seeking to learn. Doesn't Flordia have a retiree population? With up to 500k case predicted, and 26k actual what gives. Lockdown started April 1, 2 weeks after this was called a pandemic, now they are opening up to some some degree. Is being inside the house worse than being safe outdoors. Thoughts on other factors?
Relevant to this discussion:
I saw a bunch of social media posts today saying "California is spiking in daily new cases, how can any states be opening up!!!"
The first part of that is true - they have had some big numbers the last 2 days (2256 and 3018).
But it also turns out that Los Angeles County just reported 2000 positives from tests conducted --- get this, anywhere from 7 to 17 days ago.
(that also begs the question: what good is a positive result from a test conducted SEVENTEEN days ago????)
I do think things are improving in America as a whole, but there's TONS of noise out there in the data. It's damn near impossible to put context around a lot of things.
If there’s one thing that has become crystal clear to me is that COVID, and everything surrounding it, has polarize the American people like nothing else in history.
Each faction assumes the intellectual high ground, declaring their opposition to be either “gullible sheep” or “tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorists”. My biggest concern in all of this is that deep political division, when coupled with economic depression, have historically lead to war — whether civil war, and/or attack by foreign invaders.
All I see is people do is wag fingers, place blame for not doing enough, doing too much, listening, not listening, trusting, or not trusting. But, I think every American, regardless of party or belief, needs to understand that perhaps NEVER in our history has our nation been so quickly and thoroughly destabilized economically and politically. I’m sure many reading this will say, “it’s Trump!” or “it’s the Dems!” They are us, and we are them. It’s OUR fault. So what are WE going to do about it?
This is not a “call to arms”, this is me imploring a nation to look into itself and ask why we are so polarized, and if, in that divided state, we are ever going to be able to rebuild our Republic for the sake of our children?
The virus is NOT going to kill us all, and neither is a vaccine or some miracle drug going to SAVE us all. But, we, the People, are responsible for what steps our nation takes from here on out. The Government is not our savior, neither is it our enemy. It’s a tool for the People. Fear has paralyzed our nation, and I pray the it doesn’t fall, like so many others have, under the weight of a crisis.
What type of legacy will we leave?
April 21st, 2020 at 10:19 PM ^
I bet it would be different if we didn't have a complete lack of national leadership or a propaganda channel backing up their idiocy.
April 21st, 2020 at 10:35 PM ^
*sigh*
Case in point, right here! You just couldn’t resist, huh?
There’s no way to know how it would be under someone else’s leadership, and it’s really irrelevant.
Would you stand over a drowning man and tell him how much better off he would have been had he NOT fallen in the water?
April 21st, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^
Yes.
/s
April 22nd, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
lol, plea for reason instead of political division is immediately met with "but if those guys weren't so bad, everything would be fine"
I applaud your comments. In their best form, Republicans are supposed to be independent minded thinkers intent on building a society where all have the opportunity and freedom to pursue their own path to happiness. They are very far from that. Democrats are supposed to be the party of science, looking out for those they feel may not have the ability to pursue happiness. Very far from that. Both goals are strikingly similar in their ultimate form, however.
Political parties are dumb, everyone should shake them off immediately. Every national crisis and conflict reveals that more and more clearly.
April 21st, 2020 at 11:17 PM ^
What a shitty response to a call for reason.
Amnesia Joe will fix all of this....no worries