Bud Elliot’s take on the game fair or foul?

Submitted by MgoFunk on November 29th, 2022 at 8:19 PM

I really like the Cover 3 Podcast but, Bud Elliot during their instant reaction podcast said that he doesn’t think the game would play out the same if it was played again.  After being challenged on it he walked it back a little bit and said “it just wouldn’t be the same.”  I’ve given it a couple days and the more I think about it the more I don’t like his take.

Knowles challenged JJ to beat him in the air, and with some excellent effort and phenomenal route running JJ beat him through the air x3.  Then, Knowles said ok…but but can you drive the field?  So Michigan drove the field.  After that the game was over.  I can’t comment on if tOSU gave up after that or if Michigan’s O-line just dominated (probably both) but the Donovan runs just look like what Michigan did last year except Donovan is faster than Haskins.  I’d say it looked real repeatable.  I wondered if anyone else agreed?

Newton Gimmick

November 29th, 2022 at 9:17 PM ^

Those guys are hacks, Bud actually has a very good record of predictions.

His analysis of Michigan/OSU was flat out bad though.  Chalked the big plays up to flukiness and luck -- not as a function of OSU's scheme and Michigan exploiting it -- and mentioned YPP outside of those plays.  Ok...that's kinda like saying "no one talks about all the times the plane *didn't* crash" 

Also *of course* most games, if replayed, would get a different result one way or another.  Seems to be so obsessed with recruiting and power ratings that actual results are less important than hypothetical point spreads in hypothetical rematches 

Parkinen

November 30th, 2022 at 6:04 AM ^

Didn’t Norte Dame beat Michigan once by scoring only on special teams?   Didn’t they have a kid named Rocket Ishmael?  Heck, I remember the Tigers winning a game when the other sides pitcher pitched a no-hitter.  Far as I know those results are still in the record books with no asterisks.  

Bo Harbaugh

November 29th, 2022 at 8:25 PM ^

Don't care.  Sounds like loser excuses.

They scored 3 points in the second half. Stroud shit his pants again.

They don't have that dawg in them.

Load the box, we'll beat them with the pass - we still have crossing routes, mesh routes and a bunch of TE trickery we never even ran.

Don't load the box, and a healthy Corum and DE run for 400 yards.

OSU is soft, soft, soft on defense.

 

Give them a healthy JSN and Marvin Harrison JR....then we might be in a shoot out.  But with just 1 elite receiver, it's curtains.  Can't run the ball with their all tackle offensive line.

Bo Harbaugh

November 29th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^

JSN healthy was the best of the 3 last year, imo. Was probably the Belitnikoff favorite coming into this year...

and Marvin Harrison JR. is even better, a superstar....like future Megatron or Larry Fitzgerald good.  I think he's a generational talent tbh.  

It's a joy to watch OSU waste so much talent.

WayOfTheRoad

November 29th, 2022 at 9:30 PM ^

JSN is absolutely better than those two. 

Says who? Olave & Wilson. In real-time, on demand. All three are sitting together and the interviewer asks who is the best out of them. Instantly and without a moment of hesitation they both point to JSN.

He and MHJr when healthy are the two best WRs in America.

skatin@the_palace

November 29th, 2022 at 8:25 PM ^

Stopped listening to him a long time ago. He’s one of those guys that picks certain stats to drill home over and over again. Not a fan of his analytics at all. He probably believes this because of his obsession with the blue chip ratio. While a good foundation, you still have to be able to coach good Xs and Os too. 

bronxblue

November 29th, 2022 at 8:25 PM ^

Is this the same Bud Elliott who used to write for the FSU SBNation site (and got otherwordly cranky when UM fans pointed out that losing two All Americans in that bowl game may have hurt UM's chances of winning) and bases 95% of his football analysis on recruiting rankings?  

Yeah, color me unsurprised his analysis is slipshod.  Probably not worth a post about it, though.

Chaco

November 29th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^

I think UM would be able to move the ball on OSU

I think a more likely shift would be OSU having a more coherent offensive gameplan; most notably some QB draws and keepers etc.  

While I don't want to see the rematch it WOULD be an epic national title game.

But right now.............I'm just focused on Purdue.

not TOM BRADY

November 29th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^

Some people just can’t get it into their thick skulls that OSU is a talented but poorly coached soft mentally weak football team. Obsessed with recruiting rankings. OSU has a bunch of recruits. Michigan has football players. 

MGoAndy89

November 29th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^

I, too, am an avid listener of Cover 3 and had the same eye roll when hearing this comment. Lazy takes like "well, OSU would just play zone" drive me nuts. All season long Michigan punished defenses that dropped two safeties by running it down their throats. If OSU didn't have the box stacked, Michigan would just do what they did last season and run all day long. So, no, it would not be the same. It would just be a repeat of what we saw last season.

MgoFunk

November 29th, 2022 at 8:37 PM ^

Finally, I thought that podcast was more popular than this.  And that was Michigan’s long drive.  They switched coverage and challenged Michigan to drive and sustain and they did.  I just thought it was a bad take and was surprised when Fornelli was like “did you watch the game?”

Newton Gimmick

November 29th, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^

I listened and was surprised/disappointed in his analysis as well, and said as much on Twitter.  He got really defensive about a couple comments and said Michigan played well.  But he sure made the win sound fluky, as if the big plays were mostly random.  He retweeted Ed Feng who said the same 

The thing is *of course* if two teams play again it doesn't go exactly the same way.  That's the problem with guys who get too immersed in their power ratings -- *actual* rankings and championships aren't supposed to be about whom he would pick to win a hypothetical rematch (rightly or wrongly), it's about what actually happened.  Explaining it away as luck because it doesn't fit his recruiting-based power ratings or hypothetical point spread is pretty empty when we just watched an actual game where his preferred team got their ass kicked 

Follow Thy Fullback

November 29th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^

Faithful listener of the Cover 3 pod here also. I DMd him Saturday night and asked basically since UM has beaten OSU back 2 back will UM be looked at as the favorite going forward in preseason and etc (which I’m glad Tom brought up on the pod). He said he thought so but asked if UM would consistently show it more and that playing close games will eventually bite UM in the ass. 
 

Bud on the pod said that Vegas has OSU favored by I think it was 3.5-4 points if played again on a neutral field. I don’t believe he said he would pick OSU but that UM probably wouldn’t have as many explosive plays. Tom pushed back on basically everything he said and said that’s fair.