Big Ten Standings Update
With Iowa's loss today (3 conference losses), Northwestern now can lose next week to Iowa and still be in the driver's seat to win the west division (games against Minnesota and Illinois the final two weeks). Northwestern holds tiebreakers over Purdue and Wisconsin; both are hoping for Northwestern to lose at least two more times for a shot at the championship game.
Obviously, we all know the situation in the east division...while I'd like Ohio State to win out the next three games, it would take a lot of pressure off if MSU can knock them off in East Lansing next week. Early thoughts on the spread/score predictions for next week?
November 4th, 2018 at 1:03 AM ^
I think MSU over OSU 21-19.
Michigan scores as many points as it wants against Rutgers.
Iowa over Northwestern 17-14.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:14 AM ^
Based on what I saw Today from osu and also how MSU has continued playing fairly well through all the injuries, I would give MSU a strong shot to win that game handily
November 4th, 2018 at 1:26 AM ^
I'll take Michigan State over Ohio State.
Call me crazy, but I'll also take Michigan over rutger on the road in a rivalry game.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:07 AM ^
You’re crazy. I hope this is Rutgers big recruiting weeekend again.
November 4th, 2018 at 8:55 AM ^
*rutger
November 4th, 2018 at 1:36 AM ^
November 4th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^
Nebraska's run defense entering the game was tied with Kansas and Syracuse for 71st in yards per game. State's kind of a different animal. That said, they should be able to get some yards after the catch and hit some deep balls.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
Look out world— Ohio State ran the ball against Nebraska!
November 4th, 2018 at 1:43 AM ^
Somewhat relevant, but not threadworthy; if what we are all hoping wilchappen in 3 weeks actually happens, I fear that we may still end up on the outside looking in. ND, Bama and Clemson are locks. That means that we are realistically in a 3-team fight for a single spot. It would be down to us, Georgia and Oklahoma. Georgia plays nobody until they meet Bama in the SEC championship game. If they win that, they are in and we are screwed because a 1-loss Bama team is a lock to make it. We are rooting for Bama big time. As for Oklahoma, we are ahead of them and our absolute drubbing of a top 20 team tonight should increase that lead. They don’t play anyone until the last game of their season against W. Virginia. If they win that, and we beat a weak OSU team’ do they jump us? Not likely but possible. Because the B1G West is so bad, we can’t rely on much of a bump for beating NW again. Bottom line, this thing is far from over.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:19 AM ^
I think you are going a little overboard calling osu weak. They're 8-1. Not blowing out teams lately, but they are still good and have a ton of talent.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:33 AM ^
I could have been clearer. Weakened in terms of perception if we beat them, in particular if they lose to Sparty this weekend. I totally agree that OSU aid one of the 5 most talent-laden teams in the country. Maybe top 3. But if they lose to sparty, they would come in as a 2-loss team who has also struggled with some really mediocre teams (and lost to two crappy teams). They wouldn’t be top 15. And while I also view them as scary as hell, a win over them in such a situation wouldn’t have as much juice.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
Ohio State is basically one of the best Big XII teams. WVU, OU, and OSU all have these high-powered offenses and have little to no defense. So if it comes down to a Michigan v WVU getting the 4th spot, just look at the two bodies of work. The only thing that may [actually] work in the Big XII’s favor is their conference championship game— which could be OU vs WVU again.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:47 AM ^
There is a 0% chance that the loser of the CCG makes the playoff. It's never happened, it's not going to happen.
If we win out, we're in. That simple.
November 4th, 2018 at 5:56 AM ^
Strongly disagree Alabama is a one loss lock if their loss is the last game of the season
November 4th, 2018 at 6:20 AM ^
You know they lost their last game of the season just last year, right?
November 4th, 2018 at 6:51 AM ^
Was it the CCG? Alabama dropped to 5th then moved up to 4th after Auburn lost their 3rd game in the SEC CCG. Not at all the same as staying ahead of a CCG winner.
November 4th, 2018 at 6:57 AM ^
I think you just made his point for him. Look, if it's a last play of the game situation, it could happen. But if Michigan is playing the way they have been, they'll be in.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:03 AM ^
Nothing you have said is even remotely possible.
Oklahoma has no chance to jump Michigan if they both win out. None. Zip. Zero. Oklahoma needed OT to beat Army, lost to a Texas team thats been overrated all season and lost to Maryland and then they barely beat a 5-4 TTU team. They are not in the same class as Michigan. And W. Virginia is just another overrated Big12 team.
The committee will not give Bama the nod if they lose in the SEC finals over a conference champion Michigan whose only loss came to a playoff team (which at that point will be #2 playoff team, behind Clemson) by 1 score on the road in the first game of the season.
What I learned this week is that the ACC besides Clemson is garbage and even Clemsons resume is suspect. Nothing but cupcakes and their only win over a team with a pulse is Syracuse at home. Id take any one of four or five B1G teams to beat Syracuse at home.
Alabamas resume isnt sparkling either. LSU is what I thought they were. A good D, sucky O team that lost to way way way overrated Florida. Georgia hasnt beaten anyone. The Big12 and PAC10? Hahahaha.
All in all, college football kinda sucks this year at the top. There is a lot of parity. I think there are 4 teams that are ahead of the rest and that includes Michigan. Beyond that there is probably 30 teams with major flaws that can be lumped together and the order they fall is inconsequential.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:57 AM ^
Now, floridas only good win is mississippi state, who's only good win is texas a&m, who's only good win is UK.....
Uk's only good win is florida and mississippi state but lost to texas a&m. UK is being propped up for beating a florida team that beat mississippi state that has only beaten tamu, that has only beaten uk... wait, what?
Georgia has only beaten UK who's essentially getting propped up by beating a team that beat a team they lost to. Georgia lost to florida (now 6-3 just lost to an unranked 4-4 team) who's only good win is mississippi state
LSU has beat georgia, and auburn, auburns only good win is mississipi state who's only good win is tamu and auburn lost to tamu who's only good win is UK who beat florida that beat mississippi state............... and so on and so forth.
So...
LSU>Georgia/auburn>tamu>UK>florida>mississippi state/florida>georgia/lsu/tamu>uk/auburn
These teams are literally getting credited good wins for their own fucking losses.
Its like saying 1>2>3>4>5>6>1 so 1 must be pretty fucking good because 6>1
It's a giant SEC transitive circle jerk that is ALL based around Georgias #3 preseason ranking. None of these teams have beat anyone "good" except each other and they are only considered "good" wins because of:
1) Applying the transitive property in the worst friggin way possible by ignoring every negative implication it has
and
2) Georgias preseason #3 ranking.
LSU got bumped to #3 for beating georgia despite losing to #22 fl the week before, florida who is now 6-3 and just lost to unranked 4-4 missouri.
The SEC knob slobbing is unreal.
The one redeeming thing about all of this is that alabama just throat stomped lsu and maybe that makes georgias loss to lsu look even worse.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^
Clemson is far from a lock. ND still has Syracuse and USC. Crazier things have happened. Michigan should worry about Michigan. We all know the only “lock” is Alabama. Clemson @ BC next week could be a really good game.
Let college football do college football things.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:04 AM ^
If all S&P favorites win the rest of the way, Northwestern will be 5-6 entering the Illinois game on the final weekend, needing a win to
(a) be bowl eligible
(b) clinch the division
Crazy.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:44 AM ^
So, Michigan absolutely needs Ohio State to be 10-1 and ranked in the top 8 when they play because a 7-5/8-4 Big Ten Championship Game opponent will not do much for SOS.
Should be rooting for Northwestern next week as well. 8-4 (7-2 in conference) Northerstern would probably be ranked 24th-ish going into Indy.
Obviously must take care of business. But this is the best we’ve matched up with Ohio State in a long time.
November 4th, 2018 at 2:23 AM ^
Until Michigan shows it can beat Rugters, I withhold judgement on whether or not the team is truly accomplished this year.
November 4th, 2018 at 8:03 AM ^
One thing is for sure... Michigan will never beat Rugters.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:56 AM ^
November 4th, 2018 at 3:02 AM ^
The Chicken Littles on this thread are dissecting this a lot more than the committee would. “One loss? Plays both offense and defense? Won their conference championship? Done! When’s lunch get here?”
I’m not necessarily defending the committee’s approach, but I believe I’m describing it. Alabama’s chance to get in without winning the SEC likely went by the board when they beat LSU. It’s one thing to take a non-division champion; it’s something else to take a team coming off of a loss in the conference championship game. The optics are terrible.
November 4th, 2018 at 6:22 AM ^
The optics of letting Bama in last season, despite losing to the only good team they played, wasn't great either. They still did it.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
This has been discussed SO MANY TIMES.
You can't make last year a comparison for what they could do without at least acknowledging that they only (they even said so) put Alabama in because OSU had some horrible losses. If we are a 2 loss team having lost, badly, to Rutgers or Indiana after the conference game, that's a totally different comparison for the committee than judging between a one loss surging Michigan.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
Not to mention, a 1-loss Michigan would have had that loss in the first quarter of the first game of the year... oh, and it was against a team currently in the top-3. By one score. At said team’s field.
If Alabama is ranked #1 and play #5 Georgia for the SEC Championship, and they lose, they (Alabama) would fall to no better than 5. #2 would move to #1, and the #5 team would move somewhere between #2-4, leaving the other top-3 alone—assuming they all won their last game.
November 5th, 2018 at 6:24 AM ^
The precedent is set. Bama is a lock until they lose twice in a season, or there's enough undefeateds to keep them out. I will believe this to be the case until proven otherwise.
November 4th, 2018 at 4:42 AM ^
Obviously want MSU to beat osu.
Michigan beats Rutgers and Indiana...which is highly likely...
michigan will be playing for the big ten championship.
Now...
if Michigan wins out and wins the BIG they will be in the playoffs, regardless if they beat a 10-1 or 9-2 osu team and a 8-4 team to finish. Michigan looks impressive. Holding 8 of 9 teams to season lows in offense. Some of the teams Michigan beat look bad but if Michigan don’t beat them Wisconsin is 7-2, MSU is 7-2, psu is 7-2 and northwestern is 6-3....Michigan has made them look worse.
beat rutgers
November 4th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
And if Michigan clinches the CCG birth despite losing to OSU but because OSU lost to MSU then that CCG birth is going to be meaningless.
We NEED to beat OSU for perception and as a result we want OSU to look as good as possible. Which means OSU needs to beat Sparty.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^
Agreed. We need a strong win against a 1 loss OSU team in the tidy bowl. OSU will have two losses then lose their bowl game to finish the season with 3 losses.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:03 AM ^
Well, I certainly would like OSU to lose - at minimum - one of their last three, that one being their game against us, but in all honesty, I cheer for their failure whenever I can, so 0-3 is even better. Watching the OSU-Nebraska game from the Monroe St. - Toledo Red Robin as I was forced to do yesterday, however, the fact that Nebraska was able to hang around bodes well for us, I think, and it makes me wonder if MSU might be able to "Penn State" them and make them play that ugly, plodding brand of football that Dantonio has mastered.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:06 AM ^
As much as I’d like osu to lose next week msu’s defense does not match up well against osu’s offense. Hope for more Dantonyee weather wizardary. If not msu’s pass D is gonna get torched.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
I respectfully disagree. I think that Spartan defense matches up well with Ohio State’s offense. If you take out the obvious “Ohio state has no running game/Michigan State has a good run defense”, look at what you’re left with. Michigan State’s defense still plays aggressive and are usually in that tight zone/man coverage. Haskin’s best games have all come against teams with a softer zone defense— Oregon State, TCU, etc. Purdue went to man in that game and Haskins was trying to force the ball. I expect the same from MSU... the key is going to be can Dantonio limit Urban’s offensive possessions. If MSU gets their ground game going early, this could be a Typical Dantonio game where he gets the other team to play down to his level.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:17 AM ^
Yeah, rooting for OSU to lose all their games...
November 4th, 2018 at 7:25 AM ^
Just win your next game. Ohio state could possibly lose the next two games. I know they won yesterday and will play much better against us that’s a given, but you can’t fix your linebacking core that is just flat out not good and getting roasted every week
November 4th, 2018 at 7:29 AM ^
Osu looks broken. Think I’d be more surprised than not if they beat staee
November 4th, 2018 at 7:32 AM ^
It will be most interesting to see what the committee does this week. Michigan will move into the top four. The question is whether or not they put ND on notice and have Michigan jump them-into the #3 spot. This would be very good news for Michigan...assure them of a spot should they win out. It would also open the door for Georgia should they win out and beat Bama for the SEC championship. I am sure that if Georgia wins out they will be in if ND is in the #4 slot. If Bama's only loss is to Georgia they will be in.
If the top 6 teams in this weeks ranking hold serve, with Georgia being AL's only loss, It will be most difficult for the powers that be to not begin a process to increase the "final" field. Here, I believe those six will be Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, ND, Georgia and Oklahoma. West Virginia can "threaten" here...LSU is out...don't think there are other strong contenders-barring huge upsets...strange that OSU is so "outside looking in". Within those 6, 7 if you include WV, teams will play themselves out more than they will play themselves in...but I think this is the pool from which the final 4 will come.
November 4th, 2018 at 8:14 AM ^
If LSU is out then georgia should be out because they beat georgia who has only beat UK who has only beat florida who beat lsu. LSU is literally getting win credit for losing.
Which means that if georgia beats bama then bama should be out because lsu beat georgia and lsu is getting left out.
See my post above about the sec circle jerk of rankings and you'll see how ridiculous all of it is right now.
November 4th, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
We want MSU to beat OSU. I'd prefer to wrap up the East Division sooner than later or not at all.
It is The Game. Both teams are already motivated enough. If OSU has its 2nd loss and heaven forbid we lose in Columbus - then we still have the BigTen Championship game as consolation.
November 4th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^
No, we don't. Because clinching a CCG birth while losing to a 2 loss OSU does literally nothing positive for us.
We need to beat OSU and we need OSU to look as good as possible.
We need to start looking competitive with OSU to start winning some of these recruiting battles and for preseason rankings. Look at how basically the entire SEC outside of alabama is being propped up because of georgias #3 preseason ranking. They've literally beaten no-one good except each other and those wins are only considered good because of that preseason rank.
I don't get how people still don't understand this. Basically the only reason the B1G was so highly rated in 2015/2016 was because of OSU's 2014 national championship propping up everyones rankings for 2 years.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:26 AM ^
No, I disagree.
How can you say if we lose to a 2 loss OSU team, but still make the CCG it would do nothing for us?! Winning our first conference championship since 2004 would do nothing for the program???
If we win out we will make the playoffs. It won't make a difference if OSU is 10-1 or 9-2...when we play them. Also no one can truly argue that a 9-2 OSU team is "weak." Perhaps weaker than recent years, but it would still be a quality opponent.
This team has goals...win the conference and make the playoffs. If OSU loses one more time we have the first locked up.
Let's do both. But for sure get at least the first one.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
Correct. OSU could have 3 losses and it still wouldn’t matter. The beginning of the year, all of the media were predicting that Michigan would go 1-2 during the Wisconsin/Michigan State/Penn State stretch... guess what, they went 3-0.
Thanks to those three [and Ohio state] teams giving Winovich motivation to not only come back this season, but to come back with that ‘edge’ and passion to play possessed.
The simplest answer is, If Michigan wins out, they are in. None of this “two from the same conference” matter holds. Take the two teams’ losses—let’s say it’s Alabama’s loss vs Michigan’s— and measure them. Michigan lost in the FIRST GAME of the season by one score on the road to the current #2 team. Alabama [would have] lost on a neutral field (essentially a road game) by one score (let’s assume it’s close) to the #5 [at best] team. To me, Michigan gets that vote. Strength of Schedule (outside of conference)— Michigan: Notre Dame, SMU, WMU; Alabama: Louisville, Arkansas State, Louisiana, and The Citadel (FCS). Michigan again.
Let’s look at their “signature” wins—
Michigan: #15 Wisconsin, #24 Michigan State, #14 Penn State, potential top-10 Ohio State
Alabama: #22 Texas A&M, #3 LSU, potential top-15 Mississippi State.
Texas A&M and MSU cancel out.
Wisconsin OR Penn State cancels out Mississippi State.
Ohio State would equal/lose to LSU.
then Michigan has an EXTRA win against a ranked/top-15 opponent.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
Because it will be the season where we beat a shit ass b1g west team and lost to OSU. If you're a recruit deciding between the two are you going to pick
1) The team that had a down year but still beat a dominant michigan squad
or
2) The team that had a dominant defense but still lost to one of OSU's worst teams in the last decade?
November 4th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
You honestly think snapping the BigTen Championship drought would do nothing for our players, staff, media coverage, or recruiting?
We should want one more OSU loss to guarantee us a spot in Indy for a title. We should make the playoffs if we win out no matter what OSU does.
November 4th, 2018 at 6:35 PM ^
Sparty went to the playoffs 2 (3?) years ago. DIdn't do shit for them.
November 4th, 2018 at 6:52 PM ^
You are moving the goalposts.
Winning the BigTen Championship elevated MSU's profile, elevated recruiting, validated Dantonio, and have their smug bro-fans bragging rights.
It is insane that you don't place a value on a conference title.
There won't be a negative difference for UM if OSU finishes with an extra loss from MSU. There will be a positive difference meaning we lock up a conference championship game appearance.
November 4th, 2018 at 8:14 AM ^
I think MSU takes down the Buckeyes. There is something off with that team. 2 win Nebraska could have easily won yesterday if they made just a couple more plays. The stats in that game were close, Nebraska actually had more passing yards.
Someone else already pointed out but a loss to MSU could bring them to life and make our game against them really hard. Or it could just verify there is something wrong with OSU.