Basketball Free Fall

Team looked pretty ugly tonight.  Defensive lapses.  No one willing or able to drive into the lane.  Lots of tough jumpers for us, pretty floaters from 5 ft for them.  Beilein knows this year doesn't matter.  He doesn't have to win another game.  He's got two more years to make the tourney after this one, and I'm pretty confident he gets it done.  Hopefully he continues to recruit players on the level of Brundidge and Darius with fewer "Under the radar" types.  Truth be told, I think hiring him instead of Tubby was a mistake.  That doesn't mean Beilein cant be successful here, he just isn't there yet.

I have never really been a big fan of this coaching staff. I would rather go after a good young coach somewhere but thats just my thought. I would ask every year when Amaker was here why  we didnt fire him and go get Thad Matta and that has really came back to hurt us. Ifwe dont go dancing next JB should be gone.

Everyone freak out! We had zero exceptions to the season. Now the young team hits the wall and everyone wonders why? This was expected. Sorry they got your hopes up a few times with some close loses but it happens when everyone is 18-20 years old. Wait until next year to start freaking out. 

I've been a Beilein backer since his arrival.  I think he is a solid coach and an extremely ethical guy with a young, inexperienced team.  But, even with that youth, he needs to show better on the floor.  He knows that.  He knew it before the season started.

My biggest concern is that he's a "system" coach and his system, even with the right players, might continue to get abused in the Big Ten.  Before the season, I heard rumors (very well-placed rumors) that JB would need to produce this year (despite the understood limitations of his young team) or could be on the hot seat.  Some of the staff movement lead me to believe those rumors were true.  I don't know if I think he should stay or go (assuming he doesn't pull out of the funk), but Brandon will have a tough call to make at the end of the year.

Non-Conference:

Michigan Offense: 1.08 PPP

Michigan Defense: .86 PPP

Conference:

Offense: 1.02 PPP

Defense: 1.25 PPP

Good teams in Non-Conference just in case people points to weak teams that Michigan faced (Clemson, UTEP, Kansas and Syracuse):

Offense: .89 PPP

Defense: .94 PPP

The main culprit for Michigan's slide is their defense, not their offense.  In non-conference play, the defense is excellent, but once the conference starts, Michigan defense suffered big time for some reason.  Whatever worked in non-conference, it didn't matter against Big 10 teams.

Unless, Michigan shore up on the defensive side, they're going to continue to lose games unless they get red hot from 3 point land.  They need to figure out how to be more efficient on the defensive side.  The offense isn't the problem since they're average/above average.

I think Minnesota is just a terrible matchup for us.  Their bigs are too much for our inexperienced young guys.  I'd really like to see a Big Ten game where neither Morgan or Smotrycz gets in foul trouble.  It seems like we always do better when we have both of them on the floor at the same time.  Unfortunately, it seems like we only see that for the first few minutes of each half.

"(It's) frustration, not because we lost, but the way we lost. It's the 20th game of the season and youth is not really an issue," sophomore Darius Morris said.

"We just need to be better players and start doing the things the coaches ask.

"It was just all coaches. They took over and called our performance out -- everybody -- and things that we need to improve."

Beilein didn't regard the meeting as unusual, and maybe even necessary to sort out what's keeping the team from winning.

"That's what teams do — they work it out," Beilein said. "Team chemistry is fine. They've got to understand there's more to it than being great friends."

Darius doesn't feel that youth is an issue with the team's current losing streak.

It also sounds like the team got a little tongue lashing after the game.

Here's the link to the article -

http://detnews.com/article/20110122/SPORTS0201/101220404/1131/rss17?utm…

I think we'll win 4 more games this season bringing us to 5 wins in the conference. That is not good.

One things I have noticed is that I feel like we don't move enough on offense. We just pass it around the perimeter and hope that something opens up. I do think Beilein is a good coach and we will be better next year, but we should not have lost all of the past few games....

My original prediction was somewhere around 12 wins.  I allowed early success to make me forget how young this team really is and see them as at least a NIT team with an outside shot at the NCAA.  Now I remember how young they are, and  I am once again in the "anything over 12 wins is a bonus" mode. 

My reasonable pre-season expectations for this Michigan team with no seniors, no star players, no real frontcourt strength and poor outside shooting were ten wins total and maybe three wins in the Big Ten. Close losses to ranked teams, while starting three first-year players, are encouraging, but they’re still losses, so frustration is understandable. I’d imagine that the players and coaches are feeling it worse than the fans.

Barring a miraculous turnaround for this season of Wolverines’ Winter Woes, this likely will be John Beilein’s third losing season out of four at Michigan. He had a total of three losing seasons in 29 seasons as a head coach before moving to Ann Arbor. Are former West Virginia University coaches just not suited for success at Michigan? Maybe.

If this Wolverines team fails to win a game (or wins less than three games) between now and the end of the season, then I’d expect Dave Brandon to consider ending the John Beilein experiment, just as he ended the Rich Rodriguez experiment. It may be easier to find a promising young head coach willing to take over the Michigan basketball program that lacks a long recent winning tradition than it was to find a promising young head coach to take over the Michigan football program.

Even if this team somehow manages to win as many as five more games and put themselves on the NIT bubble or into the CBI Tournament before the season ends, I can’t help but think that if the losing continues with few signs of on-court improvement, there will be outside influences preying on Michigan’s two best players, Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway, Jr., to accept what I’d call the Udoh Advantage* and transfer to better situations while they still have enough eligibility left to experience consistent winning. If that were to happen, then unless John Beilein could land a "Foreign Freshmen Fab Five" for 2011-12, his stay in Ann Arbor might have to end before its regularly-scheduled expiration date.

If you’re frustrated by the losing, and ready to concede the basketball season, then for Wolverines’ Winter Winning, visit Yost Arena where the nation’s 6th ranked college hockey team (17-6-4; 14-4-1-0 in CCHA play; 9-1 record since December 4) plays to enthusiastic sellout crowds and has four home games left this season before the CCHA playoffs.

* After a promising freshman season at Michigan, Ekpe Udoh, the Big Ten’s leading shot blocker as a freshman, "took his talents" to Baylor where he became the Big XII’s leading shot blocker and the sixth pick in last year’s NBA draft.

Given the young talent on the team and in the recruiting class, I would give Beilein another year regardless of how this season turns out (unless that young talent all leaves as Chatster alludes to above). 

But next year will be the 5th year under Beilein.  The team will be entirely his players.  At a minimum he needs to finish in the upper half of the B1G next year and make the NCAA tournament.  Otherwise, he will only have had 1 decent season out of 5 and it wasnt even that great, we went 9-9 in the B1G.

I don't know how you can fire RR after 3 years and continue with Beilein after 5 years if they flop next year.

Hopefully, it will be a moot point as they will be strong next year and beyond.

I'm of the thinking that maybe, just maybe, the B10 is one of the tougher conferences in America and is the type that can chew up young teams starting freshmen in the front court.  I mean, look at MSU - preseason #2 team to probably not being ranked this week.  Also, they just trudged through a particularly tough slate, with the only games against non-ranked teams being on the road.  This team was never as good as 11-3 and aren't as bad as 1-5 in the B10.  I still think they make the NIT with a nice push at the end, and that is enough for me.  And yes, Beilein needs to start winning more games, but unlike how people treated the football coach from WVU, I'm willing to let this young team grow up a bit before dismissing the head coach.

is a great coach but not a great recruiter.  Many people blame youth for his team's underperformance and there is some truth to that - his current players will likely be significantly better with more experience.  But that's just a symptom of the larger problem of recruiting.  Beilein's initial recruiting class was very poor resulting in Douglass and Novak - two hardworking but limited role players - as the only juniors on this team.  In his next couple classes, he brought in some decent talent, possibly  a couple gems who may develop into stars (Morris, Hardway Jr, Smotrcyz) but no elite level top 50 talent.  Some of the top players on the best teams are freshman and sophomores - with better talent it is possible to win with youth.  The other problem, besides basic talent, is a lack of bigs/size.  For whatever reason, Beiliein has trouble recruiting talented big men.  Morgan has potential but even he is overmatched by bigger players in many games and he's the only real banger on this team.  Smotrcyz and Horford don't have the bulk to hold their own in the paint - although they both have great potential.  McClimans, so far, doesn't seem to have similar potential.  So there are many nights, like last night, when Michigan has no inside presence and gets manhandled inside (outrebounded 38-13!!) while they jack up a bunch of 3's from outside.  And who has Beilein recruited so far next year?  Two small guards - talented but without the size this team seems to be lacking.

I didn't expect much this year, based on their talent level, but was encouraged by their early non-conference performance and my expectations increased.  Now I see only 3-4 wins at most on the rest of the schedule.  They will probably have another losing record.  A losing record for Beilein in years 3 and 4 is not even remotely adequate.  Michigan should be, at the very least, a perennial top tier Big Ten team, and a solid tourney team most years.  I love Beilein's ethics and coaching and would like to give him another year to develop the current talent - and that's generous - but if there's not significant improvement next year, it's time for another coach.  

and JB is meeting expectations, so no problems here!

Seriously, we're stuck with JB at least for the next few years until all renovations/ additions are complete. Then, he can retire and we can hire an actual basketball coach.