AP Poll and voter breakdown - Week 12
Not my work, but a good compilation by a Stanford Reddit guy (who also helped run the CFB Imperialism game over the summer).
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9w75ea/ap_poll_voter_consistency_week_12/
November 11th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^
Our UCLA friend Jim Alexander has Ohio State at #3 and M at #6. Interesting world.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
The Georgia chucklefuck who has UGA at 3 and us at 6 whole publicly declaring he roots against Michigan should be removed as a voter.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:14 PM ^
Wow. Why all the animosity for David Pollack?
November 11th, 2018 at 5:45 PM ^
Not Pollack. He's referring to the guy I mentioned in the earlier thread, John Bednarowski of the Marietta, GA Daily Journal.
See my post below (I cross-posted it in this thread for convenience) for details.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
I know it's not Pollack. I guess I should have put /s.
November 11th, 2018 at 8:10 PM ^
Jokes are best left unexplained and unindicated.
Don't let someone with a broken sarcasm detected influence your humor.
November 12th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
I'm surprised he doesn't just go full homer and put Georgia at 2 and Michigan at 11 or something.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
Chris solari has a vote on the ap? There goes the credibility of that poll
November 11th, 2018 at 5:23 PM ^
I saw someone in another thread say this is 1973 all over again only on a national scale. I have a gut feeling that going 12-1 and beating a 4-loss team in a CCG isn't exactly punching a ticket to the CFP.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
Being honest here. I would be happy with a Big 10 championship at this point. If we win that I wouldn’t lose sleep over a playoff spot. I’ve wanted nothing but beating Ohio St and winning the Big for the past 15 years on my mind. 2006 really crushed me with the whole national title or bust thought. We need to get back the Big 10 title first. That’s more pressing than a committe saying we are a top 4 team. Once we get that back I’ll be first in line with a pitchfork.
November 11th, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^
November 11th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
Unless Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game, we'd have both a better win (at OSU) and a "better" loss (at undefeated ND) than any other potential suitor. I'd never say never, but people's concerns over this team getting left out at 12-1 are overblown.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
We're good unless Georgia beats Bama until we aren't good anymore. That's the whole point.
Tua left with a knee injury. Do we know if that'sanything serious or just precautionary?
November 11th, 2018 at 6:34 PM ^
I've long discussed the potential dangers of a 12-1 Bama team (granted, I also don't think Bama is losing to Georgia). I've also discussed how much the behind-the-scenes politics will come into play. You'd have to potentially put in Bama in over multiple one-loss P5 champs. There would also be the issue of Michigan having an actual better resume than Bama. Obviously, it could possibly happen, but it's hard to see how the committee could justify leaving out a 12-1 P5 conference champ over a non-champ, even if that non-champ is Bama.
From what I could gather, Tua aggravated an existing injury (same one he tweaked last week against LSU). Doesn't appear to be anything that's going to keep him away long-term. Not to mention, this week is Bama's annual FCS sacrifice before the Iron Bowl, so Tua probably isn't playing much more than a quarter on Saturday.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:27 AM ^
I'm not so sure Michigan would have a better resume than Bama, even if you leave out the scores and only consider W/Ls, and we have the B1G to thank for that. Disappointing year all around. The B1G champ is going to have 4-5 losses including one to Duke and one to Akron(!!).
If you include the scores in the resume, it wouldn't even be close unless UGA beats them easily. They are so far ahead in every metric it's not even funny. They are flat out murdering good teams right now.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^
I agree. Let's win out before we worry about being left out.
If we do win out, it is highly unlikely that we are left out of the playoffs.
"If" you take the FPI at face value the odds are in our favor to make it in the playoffs if we win out.
-Notre Dame only has a 52.6% chance of winning their last two games. Basically a coin flip. If they lose once and we win out - it will be likely that we leap frog them.
-Georgia has only a 28.7% chance of winning their last three games (SEC title game). Those are really good odds in our favor that they have another loss coming.
-Oklahoma has been a bit lucky the past two weeks and they only have a 35.7% chance of winning out including a potential conference title game.
-WSU and West Virginia each have less than a 20% chance to win out and likely wouldn't leap frog us anyways.
November 11th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
I think the only way we have to sweat a bid is if Notre Dame and Georgia both win out. Going on the odds you posted, and assuming that those outcomes are independent, there's a 15% chance of that happening. Assuming that Clemson also wins out, that we'd be a coin flip with a one-loss Bama to grab the 4th seed, and that Oklahoma's resume and complete one-dimensionality put them squarely behind us, that gives us a 90+% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. I'll take it.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:29 AM ^
Yes, this is correct. There really is no need to get worried at all right now. So much football left to be played.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^
Actually there is a URL that has the same table with better functionality. When you scroll over the team logo, it highlights that same logo all over the table so you can get an idea of distribution.
Link HERE:
https://collegepolltracker.com/football/grid/2018/week-12
You can also click on the teams, which features a handy orange-shaded distribution scale so you can see how the votes were distributed week to week (each tab for a different week).
Link HERE:
https://collegepolltracker.com/football/team/michigan-wolverines/2018
The website also has poll respondent profiles to check out who the person is, their voting history, etc. I'm going to cross-post what I wrote in the Coach's Poll thread since it's far more relevant to the AP Poll:
"First, a caveat--I'm sure Michigan may benefit from favorable rankings among maybe some pro-Michigan journalists out there, but at least over the past several weeks there have been ZERO "upper range" outliers. The vast majority pick Michigan at #4, a smattering at #5, and then only 3-4 in the nation at #6.
Three journalists have chronically ranked Michigan lower than the others over the past few weeks. They are:
Jim Alexander of the Press-Enterprise (Inland Empire, CA). From a quick google search, this is the first year he's been a voter in the AP polls. Online profile seems innocuous enough.
Rob Long of 105.7 FM The Fan in Baltimore, MD. Seems to be an SC Gamecock fan, but nothing particularly antagonistic against Michigan.
And then there's....
John Bednarowski of the Marietta, GA Daily Journal. Naturally he ranks Georgia currently at #4 this week. Ranked OU #5 and Michigan at #6. Select quote from his latest column online:
"After growing up in Ohio, I pull for Ohio State one week of the year, and that’s when it plays Michigan."
Bottom line is I'm glad the CFP doesn't really take these polls into account, or if they do, then it's a small sliver of the information they consider.
November 11th, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^
Man some of these voters are just straight stupid
November 11th, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^
I agree, but at least some of them are coming from a place of principle. Like guys who say, "No 2 loss teams allowed in the Top 25" or something like that. What I don't like are the guys who are outright homers, like that John Bednarowski guy I mentioned earlier up the thread. He's outright stating that he actively roots AGAINST Michigan simply because he grew up in Ohio. Hard to believe that the dude ranking Michigan at #6 isn't a biased position.
November 11th, 2018 at 6:01 PM ^
Fact: 10% of people are mentally ill. Applies here.
November 11th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^
Only 1/10?
1 in 10 Americans are on antidepressants, so I'd wager that percentage is much higher.
November 11th, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
Two more weeks left and conference championship. No reason to worry about this until we’ve won those games. If we win out we should be playing in the playoffs.
A lot of football left to play. We haven’t seen more than one undefeated p5 team in the playoffs in any year since 2014, let alone three. Let’s see what happens.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^
I can multitask my worrying. Thank you very much.
November 11th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
Some of these people are admittedly biased and we used these votes to help decide the BCS championship game? Yikes!
November 11th, 2018 at 6:31 PM ^
UCLA guy is most egregious, but the Maryland guy is also off. I just don't see how you can put Oklahoma ahead of Michigan. Their defense is practically non-existent.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^
Especially after they keep getting lucky to beat bad teams.
November 11th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
There are voters with UK still in their top 15
November 11th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^
It’s getting closer. Better hope Bama stomps Georgia. We now have 12 votes of 60 move ya out of the #4 spot. Just saying
November 12th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
We're blessed to be even having this conversation.
November 11th, 2018 at 8:54 PM ^
Stop worrying. The plan is to get better every week and if that happens . . . I recommend that you think very big. The Wolverines would have to find a way to win in week fashion with perhaps some injuries in order to be left out after winning out. In other words, I believe the committee will get it right. Oddly, the calculated ratings seem to agree that a one loss Michigan is more worthy than an undefeated ND and that is the real issue.
November 11th, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
LOL... I see Sparty helmets in there.
November 12th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
Right now I couldn’t care less about the ratings & potential college playoff. I’m into 3 games right now. Indiana, Ohio State & Northwestern. Worry about the rest later.