2017 recruiting class attrition

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on January 9th, 2020 at 9:43 AM

16/30 now gone before their senior year with the #5 ranked 2017 class. 
 

  • 5 star D. Peoples-Jones: NFL
  • 5 star Aubrey Solomon: Transfer
  • 4 star Cesar Ruiz: NFL
  • 4 star Drew Singleton: Transfer
  • 4 star Jordan Anthony: Transfer
  • 4 star Tarik Black: Transfer
  • 4 star Oliver Martin: Transfer
  • 4 star James Hudson: Transfer
  • 4 star Deron Irving-Bey: Transfer
  • 4 star J. Kelly-Powell: Transfer
  • 4 star Corey Malone-Hatcher: Medical retirement
  • 4 star O’Maury Samuels: Dismissed from team
  • 4 star JaRaymond Hall: Transfer
  • 4 star Benjamin St-Juste: Transfer
  • 3 star J’Marick Woods: Transfer
  • 3 star Kurt Taylor: Transfer

14 guys remain

  • 4 star Luiji Vilain
  • 4 star Ambry Thomas
  • 4 star Chuck Filiaga
  • 4 star Dylan McCaffrey 
  • 4 star Nico Collins
  • 4 star Josh Ross
  • 4 star Donovan Jeter
  • 3 star Brad Hawkins
  • 3 star Andrew Stueber
  • 3 star Joel Honigford
  • 3 star Phillip Paea
  • 3 star Kwity Paye
  • 3 star Ben Mason
  • 2 star Brad Robbins

Is this just how college football is now? 

swalburn

January 9th, 2020 at 9:51 AM ^

Harbaugh has taken big classes.  From 2016-2019 I think we took around 103 kids (the 2018 class only had 19 kids), which is about 26 a year.  Factor in that some guys from 2015 Redshirt and this is inevitable.  Harbaugh is going to bring in big classes and some guys are going to get passed by younger guys and then the older guys are going to leave.  Not many of the guys you listed were set to be contributers other than a couple.  Someone would have to crunch the numbers for all the top teams but this really isn't surprising to me in major college football.   

stephenrjking

January 9th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^

Harbaugh absolutely recruits with transfer attrition in mind. He wants as many guys as he can get; some are hits, and others transfer out to better opportunities, making room for a new class of guys to come in and try it out.

The number of players graduating in three years is related to this. Transfers aren’t just accounted for, they are expected. 

WestQuad

January 9th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^

During the Hoke era, people complained that Alabama recruited a lot more players than everyone else and then gave them a handshake when they didn't work out.   People on here alternated between mandatory 4 year scholarships across the NCAA or wanting to do the same thing.  

Well we're doing the same thing, but we're not doing the surprise gray shirts and other shennanigans.  In situations like JKP where guys get their degree I think it is great.   

It's a bummer to see guys like Solomon and Singleton, who you were rooting for, transfer, but what are you going to do?

BlueUPer

January 9th, 2020 at 9:54 AM ^

Seriously, other than Aubrey, who else helps us?  Or is better at his respective position than who is currently on the roster.   I don't care what Wiltfong or any recruiting expert says (I think his giving his opinion on this the tactics of recruiting at UM was unprofessional.)

 

Gulogulo37

January 9th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^

People keep saying this but how many people here watch enough Tennessee football to know? I heard him mentioned in the bowl game. Don't know how many snaps he got though. Some said his stats weren't great but that can be very misleading for DL. Plus, DPJ is pretty crap if we're just looking at stats. 

2manylincs

January 9th, 2020 at 10:09 AM ^

Who helps us is the real question and you nailed it.. not many. 

We would love to have the nfl guys back obviously, but you cant blame someone for taking the opportunity for their dream job. Thats what everyone goes to college to do.

The only one that i see that would be a sure contributor is st. Juste and he had health problems when he was here.

Aubrey, singleton, anthony, hudson, and maybe irving-bey would likely be in the 2 deep. But thats no guarantee of playing time and they all moved on. Its just how college football works.

BlueUPer

January 9th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^

I apologize for putting this here but ...that Wiltfong thing yesterday truly irritates me.   A person of his stature in the recruiting world saying what he did was unprofessional.  How could this not sway recruits, painting such a negative picture of literally our team's leadership....even if true.  

With that said....we've done reasonably well recruiting with ...no plans... no meetings....no nothing! 

Damn, how did we get that vaunted 2017 class without meetings or just having asst. coaches hope and pray that the kids they bring in fit the needs of the team?   Perhaps, Wiltfong should write an introspective article on how many of these players in this class and others are drastically over rated!

Coach Carr Camp

January 9th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^

Yea, I didn't have a chance to say in thread yesterday, but that comment was just cheap journalism - throw out a vague anecdote that fulfills a preconceived notion about Michigan for clicks. When Harbaugh started at Michigan, he was an innovator in recruiting. He was sleeping over at kids houses, starting satelite camps, playing with his shirt off at those camps. I know some folks thought his antics were a bit crazy, but you can't deny he was busting his ass looking for recruiting advantages. But now our recruiting strategy is apparently some disorganized shit show? I find that hard to beleive. More likely we're just a second tier football school and recruiting reflects that. 

  

Quailman

January 9th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^

This. Thank you. It's unbelievable that a National Recruiting Analyst would come out with that. What was the point of that on his end except to use the UM name for clicks. Very unprofessional and an incredibly bad look. Why would any school give them any insight now moving forward if they are just going to be negatively recruiting against schools. 

buddha

January 10th, 2020 at 1:03 AM ^

Unprofessional? The guys job is to literally write about both the state of recruiting and the institutionalization of recruiting at predominantly high-profile schools. You may not have liked the article, including its suggestive remarks about UM, but that’s his job! 

We have work to do. Our recruiting is not where it should be (and it has nothing to do with bagmen or whatever excuse posters on here have). We have issues that need to be addressed...and - honestly- I’m not totally sure Harbaugh will mediate them. 

ih8losing

January 9th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^

The staff goes for a lot of players with potential but underrated. Coaching them up is an issue no one seems to want to point to.  Coach Z is BY FAR, the one that has been able to develop his players. If we, for some reason, were to lose coach Z, watch the DBs decline rapidly. Ed Wariner is the other clear impactful coach in development. How many years now have we complained about lack of progress by QB, WR, RB, DE, TE , safeties? 

michgoblue

January 9th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^

Here's my analysis in response to your question:

You cannot count players leaving for the NFL as attrition - tons of top juniors leave for the pros.  So take DPJ and Ruiz out of the analysis. 

You also cannot count Samuels, since Harbaugh 100% did the right thing by dismissing him.  Every team has those types of issues, and we are usually critical of guys like Mork, Meyer, etc. for looking the other way for talented guys.  

Obviously, you cannot count Malone-Hatcher's medical retirement.  

Aubrey Solomon - Solomon didn't do much on Tenn this year.  While he would have been a nice DL depth piece, his flaky recruiting saga, his subsequent transfer and now his lack of production on a new team lead me to believe that his transfer is not a loss for us

Tarik Black - Let's get over his freshman year - since losing two years to injuries, he hasn't shown much.  I feel for him because he looked promising but he may just not have been able to make up for losing two years.  Sure, he has not been targeted much, but is he legitimately getting separation?  Also, our WR room is pretty stocked so this is not a huge loss.

Oliver Martin: We have some damn good and fast slots on the roster.  Jackson, Sainristil and Bell more than cover this position.  Not a huge loss.

Kelly-Powell never saw the field much, Woods doesn't have the speed necessary to keep up with top teams, and Taylor was never going to play here over the talented RB on the roster.  Not insulting the kids but those are not losses.  They were depth guys who didn't see the field and left.  

St.-Juste was known to be a project recruit (Canada) with a boom or bust nature, and sometimes those guys just don't work out.  

I thinkt that the biggest losses were James Hudson and JaRaymond Hall - both play positions of need, and I am not sure why they didn't work out here.  Would feel a lot better about next year's roster if both were here.  

No real opinion about Singleton, Anthony and Irving-Bey.  How are they doing on their respective new teams?

michgoblue

January 9th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^

Disagree re: DPJ.  His choice is come back and play for free or go pro and, assuming that he is as confident as most top college athletes, dominate the combine and be drafted in the top 3 rounds and make over $1 million to play the same game.  I don't get why so many people don't understand this.  If he goes pro, he is literally 3-months away from becoming a millionaire.

Here's a clip from a 2017 article from the Business Insider - the numbers are certainly higher in 2020:

Things really drop in the second round, where the average contract was worth about $5.1 million over four years ($1.3 million per year), according to Spotrac.com, but with only half of that guaranteed. The value of third-round contracts drops to $3.3 million, but takes an even bigger hit in guaranteed value, with the average contract worth just $756,000 in guaranteed money.

Once a player falls past the third round, most draft picks will sign a 4-year deal in the $2.4-2.9 million range. The only major difference late in the draft is the signing bonus, ranging from $400,000-600,000 in the fourth round to slightly more than $60,000 in the seventh round.

Sure, we all can sit here and say that he would benefit from another year (which I do agree with, by the way), but it's pretty hard for most 21 year-old athletes to turn that down. 

 

285matt

January 9th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^

On paper this looks really bad, but I think it's hard to say. I'd get rid of the nfl/medical/dismissed, and just look at the transfers. Do they perform well where they transfer? Only time will tell on most of them. I agree a culture change is needed, but I wouldn't throw out the possibility that most of these guys just didn't develop into what we needed them to be. Maybe look at the ones that transferred and played all last year and post their stats and compare them to our current stats. 

 

Oliver Martin was 5 for 28 at Iowa.

D. Singleton had 1 sack and 34 tackles

A. Solomon had 2 sacks, 28 tackles. 

 

These are just a few I quickly got. I think it'd be interesting to see how they all(that played) performed.

285matt

January 9th, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^

Oh for sure. Just take a look at our high ranked commits over the past few years. Was R. Gary as dominate as his ranking suggests? Same with DPJ. K. Walker. And a bunch of others. I don't know if I can say it's from Michigan coaching or just that they didn't develop. But like I've said before, a lot of the top players in the NFL were NOT top ranked prospects. Go look at Michael Thomas' recruiting profile. I think Michigan has had a decent amount of bad luck in the recruiting trail, with so many top tier players being misses for us. I'd be curious to go and see where the other top players from those cycles are, and if their recruiting profile ranking matches how they performed.

That being said, I do think we have just missed out on way too many prospects too. AJ Dillion at BC,Najee Harris, Mekhi Beckton at Louisville to name a few. We still have a top class with plenty to look forward to. 

Larry Appleton

January 9th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^

Everyone was ready to hang themselves after the 2018 class signed, but that class has a real chance of having more significant contributors than the far more lauded 2017 class. 

Gentleman Squirrels

January 9th, 2020 at 10:13 AM ^

If you look at the 2018 class - Harbaughs worst class on paper - it’s interesting to see the number of  players that have or will contribute in a meaningful way - Hutchinson, McGrone, Bell, Gray, Barrett, Mayfield, Hayes, Moody. Practice players that have made noise - Milton, Upshaw, Welschof, Schoonmaker. That’s 12 out of 20 with a maybe on Gemon green and Christian Turner

atticusb

January 9th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^

I'd love for this to be evidence of improving player development.  In my mind, that's a hugely critical thing for a Michigan coach.  If we're going to improve relative to the peers we most want to beat, it's going to have to come from strong player development.  2017, a large make-up class to recover from Hoke... 2018, "disappointing" initially and on paper, but maybe looking better re: game performance?  That would be a positive sign....

ih8losing

January 9th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^

new reality. But this also shows how important it is to have top recruiting classes year in and year out. That's how you build depth and ultimately position the team for greater success. IF that success (aka, B1G championships, playoff appearances, beating OSU) materializes, then players will be more likely to stick it out and wait for their opportunity, imo. 

And I agree with others that players going to the draft early should in no way be viewed negatively. Michigan needs players in the league to point to for better recruiting also. Look at New Orleans, they may as well be the New Orleans Buckeyes. Or should we call them THE New Orleans Buckeyes? Sigh...

 

Go BLue!

 

 

OkinawaGoBlue

January 9th, 2020 at 10:22 AM ^

Would like to see pre-portal recruiting data on a particular class(es) to see the percentage of those who became large contributors on the field vs sitting on the bench (or leaving).  In other words, out of a class of XX players recruited, what is an average percentage of players who became "somebody" (starters or lots of playing time).  Of the 14 remaining from the 2017 class listed, a large number of those are in this latter category.  Maybe the percentages from pre-portal days are close to the same.

MGoStrength

January 9th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^

The attrition of this class is a primary reason UM was #11 in the team talent composite in 2019 as opposed to like #6.  Imagine if Solomon & Jeter were playing like 5-star & 4-star DTs instead of having to play undersized guys, DPJ was playing like a 5-star WR, Hudson was playing like a 4-star RT instead of a RS freshman, JKP was playing like a 4-star DB, and Singleton was playing like a top LB instead of a former walk on.  That would make UM look like a lot different team.  Oh if only...

285matt

January 9th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^

I agree. I think there's been more guys that didn't develop or perform to what their ranking suggest. Is it coaching? You could argue that it is coaching, but we have guys that are outperforming their ranking, by a lot. 

MGoStrength

January 9th, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^

It's hard to think it's coaching when guys like Hall go to CMU and don't play, Singleton goes to Rutgers and doesn't start, Solomon starts but puts up similar numbers to Kemp, etc.  The only loss that hurts was Hudson.  I think he'll be a fine tackle and his problem was a frustration over losing his spot on the depth chart after returning from injury.  But, the rest of the guys just weren't as good as their recruiting profiles would suggest.  But, you'd think film and evaluation should be better than having so many misses.

Jimmyisgod

January 9th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^

When you list those guys out, I remember thinking some of them were overrated recruits.  Jeter didn't seem like a 4 star recruit, neither did Hudson to me.  Hall definitely didn't look lie a big time college player.  Singleton's under performance was more about injuries.

And I'll even say this, despite the athlete that he was, I did not think DPJ should have been a 5 star WR.  5 star means you're not only a freak athlete, but a somewhat polished product as well.  DPJ didn't do much during his All American week.  And when he got here he wasn't a crisp route runner, didn't catch the ball all that well.  High 4 star based on athletic ability, not a 5 star IMO.

I think we're a big money brand with a rabid fan base, i think the services give some (not all) of our recruits an undeserved bump, this raises expectations and makes money for them.  I'm not saying that's a big part of the problem, but it's a part of it.

Jimmyisgod

January 9th, 2020 at 10:38 AM ^

Who left isn't the big issue, the fact that in 2020, only a few guys who are left will be major contributors is an issue.  This is their senior year, our depth chart should be dominated by seniors.