Ain't no stoppin us now [JD Scott]

[Ed-Seth: This is very well done. First front-paged Diary since...?]

THE STORY.

Going into the 2020 B1G tournament, Kim Barnes Arrico’s young Wolverines stood at 19-10 overall, 10-8 in the conference, and squarely on the bubble.  The good side of the bubble, probably, but on the bubble nonetheless.  They’d missed some opportunities to make their mark, going 1-6 against ranked teams and getting blown out by a so-so Rutgers team in Piscataway coming down the stretch.  They needed to win one and probably two games to guarantee a spot in the tournament; their opener was Nebraska, who they'd split home games with during the season.

They were also hurting.  Reliable scorer and all-court defender Kayla Robbins had been lost for the season in January, and her replacement, Danielle Rauch, had broken her hand a couple of weeks later.  Freshman Maddie Nolan – generously listed as 5’-8” and wearing a gigantic knee brace after a lost senior high school season – was still getting comfortable playing starter minutes.

Nebraska led 42-34 at halftime and had been in control for most of the way, but Michigan went on a 13-2 run to start the third quarter, capped by a Nolan three, and never trailed after that.  Nolan would finish with a breakout 9-point, 7-rebound, 4-steal performance in 39 minutes.  She’d follow that up with 13 points and 8 rebounds (again - she's FIVE-EIGHT) in a ticket-stamping 67-59 semifinal win over #11, regular-season co-champ Northwestern.  Nolan harassed 1st team All-B1G guard Lindsey Pulliam into 9 disinterested, inconsequential points before fouling her out.

The team’s hot streak would end in a tight, tetchy semifinal loss to similarly hot Ohio State, but Michigan had clearly played their way off the bubble, perhaps up to a 6 or 7 seed, which is critical in the women’s game, where the first two rounds are played at the seeded teams’ home arenas.  A couple of Michigan teams have gotten blown out in the second round by homestanding high seeds over the past decade.

We all know what happened next…I’ll say this – I went to the B1G tournament in Indianapolis, and this was a team that was playing really, really good basketball.  They had a shot to make some noise.  Sigh.

So.  Why so much talk about Maddie Nolan, when this team has two clear first-team All-B1G candidates?  Because she’s a great indicator of the increased talent level of this team.  Kim Barnes Arrico (KBA from here on out – I hate the initials thing, but come on, I’m typing here) has not lacked for stars in her tenure, but overall depth has not been a strength.  Maddie Nolan was probably the fifth or sixth guard going into the 19-20 season, behind Amy Dilk, Akienreh Johnson, Kayla Robbins, and Danielle Rauch.  Fellow frosh Michele Sidor came in with more hype.  In the past, the 5th or 6th guard playing in a B1G tournament game would be a sign that the wheels had fallen off.  Not for this team, not anymore.  The talent level is higher than it’s ever been.  So are the expectations.

[Hit THE JUMP]

GUARDS

Dilk is Michigan's most important player [JD Scott]

The assumption here is that KBA will usually roll with three guard-shaped objects.  Even so, the top 3-4 guards are all over six feet, presenting major matchup issues against most teams.

It starts with Junior Amy Dilk (11.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg), who has started at point guard since she walked in the door.  It’s easy to see why - she’s unflappable, tall enough to match up with any guard, has an excellent handle, can get on the glass, and is a very versatile offensive player able to either go to the rim or shoot over a defender.  What she needs is a bit more reliable range on her jumper (she’s been a 30% and 36% three point shooter) and (dear god) to Take Care Of The Ball.  She's got an excellent handle, but she has this tendency to float a bit, which shows up in stolen passes and breaks going the other way.  Put it this way – another year of marginal improvement and she’s first-team all-B1G.  45% from three, with half the turnovers?  She’s honorable mention All-America.

Fifth-year senior Akienreh Johnson (10.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.4 apg) is back after getting an exemption for the season-ending knee injury she incurred in her freshman season.  ‘AK’ seemed to come out of nowhere as a soph – finally healthy at the end of the season, she was suddenly scoring from everywhere in the B1g tournament and NCAA tournament.  her scoring dropped as a junior, but as a senior starter she became a consistent scorer and lights-out perimeter defender.  Not a great shooter, she does seem to have a knack for big baskets and is capable of mixing it inside. One of only two seniors (!) she will be counted on to do the same this season.

The third guard will usually be junior Leigha Brown (14.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) an immediately-eligible transfer from Nebraska who was the B1G sixth player of the year.  My memory of her is that she is an elite, streaky scorer from inside and out but an average defender.  That said, KBA likes to say that the women are the ‘hardest working team in america’ and the team takes that very seriously.  The assumption here is that she will become a plus defender on osmosis alone.  

I think I’ve said enough about Maddie Nolan already…except to say she’s a tough little shit, and I love watching her play.  the presence of Brown probably bumps her back to the bench, but her versatility should still get her 18-20 minutes a game

The other possibility at third guard is Junior Danielle Rauch who is less likely than Nolan to try to score and more of an orchestrator.  Also a capable, hyper defender, she is also slightly hampered by her 5’-8” height but is very capable of spelling Dilk or Johnson.

Yet another possibility is soph Michielle Sidor, who came in as one of the bigger scorers in the country but who hasn’t had enough long stretches to get hot.  she has shown that she can run the offense capably and shoots well but seems to hesitate to do so.

The frosh include combo guard Meghan Fiso, a superb scorer from Seattle, and Elise Stuck, who was a double-double machine in Charlevoix before missing almost all of her senior season with a knee injury.  Minutes will be hard to come by for both this season.

FORWARDS / CENTERS

Hailey Brown can do everything well. [Dianna Oatridge]

Michigan only lists one center on the roster, Soph Izabel Verajao (5.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg). Yes, that Verajao - 13-season NBA hairdo Anderson Varajao is her uncle.  Izabel came from Brazil as a gangly post player with a surprising array of subtle post moves, an ability to get to the offensive glass, and a willingness to mix it up in general.  “Protecting the rim” is something of a misnomer in the women’s game, but she has shown flashes of (raw) shot-blocking ability and generally plays very good (if handsy, foul-prone) defense.  She’ll be relied on to spell Hillmon from time to time, as well as to serve as the second post player when KBA goes big.  Still somewhat raw, despite those post moves, it’s easy to see her developing into an All-B1G-level player by the time she leaves.

The north star of the team is junior Naz Hillmon (17.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.4 rpg), a relentless, physical, double-double machine and obvious B1G POY and all-American candidate.  Not a great shooter, Hillmon gets her points by hustle, effort, and sheer force of will – as a frosh non-starter (!), KBA used her as instant offense and played her as the point in a full-court 1-2-1-1 press, where she was absolutely mesmerizing. Sadly, KBA rarely uses that press anymore, now that Hillmon starts, but the hustle continues.  She just never, ever takes off a possession and bangs bodies for position constantly, particularly on the offensive end.  She’s just okay defensively; while she never gets lit up, she’s not a great shot-blocker and doesn’t play great positional defense, although she does make up for that by being a tremendous defensive rebounder.  And for someone who pounds bodies as much as she does she’s unfortunately not a great foul shooter.  These are minor quibbles, honestly.  She will, in all likelihood, finish her career as the greatest player in program history, may be its first All-American and has a chance to lead them to their first conference championship.  Put double-zero in the rafters right now.

The only senior besides Akienreh Johnson is Hailey Brown (8.9 ppg, 3.3. rpg, 1.2 apg), a do-everything player that has started every (healthy) game since she walked in, now 92 of 92.  She’s one of those players that’s a plus at everything – a good, not great, three-point shooter (she and AK were basically the two go-to shooters in the last half of 2020), a good defender, takes care of the ball, can run the floor and bang the boards.  A dependable, useful player in every way.

Junior Emily Kisor is another plus player that does several things well.  A good, long defender, can score a bit, hits the glass, and just generally fits well when she’s on the court.  Her trouble has been and will continue to be opportunity…KBA’s three-guard lineups will tend to limit the opportunities for a small forward, and Kisor has had trouble finding minutes.

Those minutes will continue to be scarce with incoming 5-star, #30-ranked freshman Cameron Williams, who (I believe) comes in as the highest-ranked recruit in program history.  On tape, she looks like a big, strong, smooth pogo stick, not afraid to mix it up inside.  Sometimes you see a tall player that has clearly dominated on size alone and never developed skills.  Not this one.  Minutes will have to be found.

Last but not least is incoming frosh Whitney Sollom, an athletic 6’-4 post from Hartland who can run, shoot, and pass.  Similar to Williams, this is not a player that has dominated on size alone…or rather, she probably has (this is Hartland, after all), but she does appear to have athleticism that will translate to a higher level of competition.

HEURISTICS, ETC.

Dunno. [JD Scott]

(stipulated:  I have no idea what heuristics mean in the context of women’s basketball, but Ace et al like to use the word so I thought I’d toss it in here)

There’s not a women’s section on KenPom, sadly.  But there is a site called HerHoopsStats, which is very good.  What it shows for michgian is exactly what you’d expect for a young team that relies on an inside post player when it needs a critical bucket.  Slow tempo.  It also shows a team that is good, not great offensively, and about average defensively.  As someone who’s watched just about every game for the last three years, that feels right.  KBA’s roster has gotten bigger, and a bit slower and more methodical.  They are one of the slowest-tempos in the B1G.  I have a feeling that this team might run a bit more than in the past couple of seasons based on having aggressive defenders like Nolan and Rauch and Johnson forcing turnovers on the perimeter.

The stats also point up (by far) the biggest weakness on this team, which is turnovers.  The womens’ game tends to be slower, certainly, and Michigan is slower than most, but that slowness and methodical approach hasn’t’ reduced turnovers – 16.2 per game, 13th in the conference.  A team that doesn’t force turnovers (9th in the conference, although I expect that to improve significantly this season) needs to control its own turnovers, and Michigan simply doesn’t do that very well.

A PREDICTION

Naz will be Naz. [JD Scott]

As great a player as Naz Hillmon is, the most critical player is Amy Dilk.  For this team to take a step forward, which means a seed in the NCAA tournament, she has to have a clear first-team All-B1G season.  She has to shoot a little better, and score a little more and turn over the ball a lot less.  Hillmon is as close to a guaranteed first-team All-B1G player as there is in the conference.  She will dominate.  But she needs help, night in, night out.

My guess is that she gets it from a deeper roster, or at least gets it often enough that Michigan takes one more step up the ladder, to 3rd or 4th in the conference, gets a 5- or 6-seed, and makes the Sweet 16.  Then, in 21-22, a senior-laden team wins the B1G and gets home games for the tournament.

I can’t wait.