Revisit history: What the 12 team playoffs would look like during the Harbaugh era
So, there is a small sense of sanity coming around in college football, expanded playoffs. What would is have looked like if the 12 team playoffs had exist since Harbaugh first arrived in 2015.
So I found a nice website that has recorded the final CFP ranking on Selection Sunday:
https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
You can toggle by year and even roll back through the weeks of each year if you so desire. So here are the results for the previous 7 years:
I also did a conference count over these seven years, here is what came from it.
Some Observations:
> Michigan would have made the playoffs in '16 and '19 in addition to last year.
> Michigan also finished 14th twice, but I do not believe they would have been bumped in because 1) in 2015, the BIG TEN had 3 teams in already and the SEC (Ole Miss was 12) only had 1. There was no way 4 BIG TEN teams would get in and only 1 SEC school. In 2019, Auburn finished 12, Alabama was 13. I believe that year Auburn beat Bama hence the rankings, so they would have stuck with Ole Miss because we lost to OSU.
> Big 12 could have remained more stable as they multiple teams in 5 of the 7 years.
> PAC 12 and ACC have really fallen behind the other 2-3 conferences. ACC has really fallen off with only 1 representative the past 4 years.
> ND is a HUGE benefactor with this set up. Just like last night, ND is annually over rated and has a well structured schedule to ensure they get minimum 8 wins. Pull out one win and presto they are in the the CFB... What a pile of BS
> Would this have changed Harbaugh's narrative over the past 7 years? To me, not much, while he would have made the playoffs a couple of times and it would have been interesting to see how they would have done with (what I assume no pre bowl early departures). He would have still had the OSU thing hanging over his head. MAYBE had be won a playoff game that would have given him some leeway, but in the end beating OSU is what matters.
Moving forward, I really believe this will go a long ways to breaking up the cartel of Bama, OSU, and Clemson as more teams will be able to tell recruits they can come to school there and still have a chance for the playoffs. It will take a few "upsets" to make this happen, I would expect the 4v5 games to be even and some of the 3v6 games, but until that happens there will be a few 1 seeds or 2 seeds that get upset
September 4th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
Did you incorporate 6 conference champions each year? It doesn't look like it.
September 4th, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
Also, the top 4 conference champions earn bye weeks. So for instance last year Georgia would not have gotten a bye week.
2021 would have featured byes for Alabama, Michigan Cincinnati and Baylor.
September 5th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Also, only the top four conference champions get a bye. So even an undefeated #1 ND would not get a bye until they join a conference. Gotta love that!!
September 6th, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
Right. So last year, under these rules, Georgia would have been #5, Notre Dame #6, and OSU would have slid to #7. So if they stayed true to their rankings, MSU would have played at OSU as the 7/10 game with the winner advancing to play Michigan. I can almost guarantee that they would have seen that in the committee room and done a little adjusting to make sure that didn't happen. My guess is that MSU would have slid down to #11 and OSU would have slid up to #6 or Michigan would have become #3 behind Cinci.
September 4th, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
Imagine if MSU beats Baylor in the 2021 twelve team playoff - we would get a rematch with them. I have no doubt we wouldn't have let refball be a factor in that scenario.
Then, Ohio State beats Utah and Georgia - another rematch with OSU. I have no doubt that the ranking committee would not have let the board fall this way. OSU and ND would probably have flipped.
I'm guessing that kind of shenanigans would happen a lot, so these wouldn't have actually been the brackets. But, a fun exercise nonetheless. Thanks for putting these together!
September 4th, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
This part is fun:
Florida goes to Wisconsin in December in 2019.
Florida goes to Michigan in December in 2018.
LSU goes to Ohio State in December in 2018.
USC goes to Wisconsin in December in 2016.
Florida State goes to Michigan in December in 2016.
Florida State goes to Notre Dame in December in 2015.
Ole Miss goes to Iowa in December in 2015.
Yes please.
The regular season will still matter a shit ton in SEC country to avoid this.
September 4th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
I wonder if some tinkering would happen to keep certain teams and players warm.
September 6th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Except that OSU has already publicly said they'd play their "home" playoff game in Indy, presumably so that their offense doesn't have to deal with snow since it's not built for winter outdoor football.
September 4th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
So many shitty teams that have no business sniffing a playoff. ND will be in every year. They will dumb down their schedule more. Byes are stupid. Should have been 8 teams.
September 4th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^
We lost bowl games to FSU and Florida in those potential playoff years, but yes how interesting if those games had been played in the big house.
September 4th, 2022 at 8:30 PM ^
Wasn't Alabama a top -12 team in 2019? I know they finished with the same record as Florida.
September 6th, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
Indeed, bama finished the regular season ranked #9 in both polls, and #8 after the bowl games.
September 5th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
In general I think expansion is the right step to improve the landscape of college football. Once the playoff was created it significantly devalued the regular season and benefited teams who play in easier conferences or divisions. It helped lead to the class system where schools willing to bend the rules get the recruits, then make the playoff, then get even more recruits.
I also LOVE the idea of trying to preserve conference relevance via home field advantage and byes.
With that being said, 12 does feel like a LOT of teams. I could have lived with 6 or 8. I also think it will take time for the playing field to level out because Georgia/Bama/OSU are still going to win most of the time in this format.
September 5th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
I think the expanded playoff system, which may go in effect in the 2024 season, two years from now, will do more to alter weekly rankings and the final selection of playoff teams as constituted under the current system.
My feeling on this is based on the fact that so many times we have heard the pundits claim that Alabama's winning veneer precludes its denial from a playoff spot even when challenged in late season matchups or close victories or losses against, for example, any team not named Georgia. The likelihood of protected seeds, at least among the top-ranked four, would seem to be diminished under the 12 team playoff format. Though you will get an annual debate over who the top four are or should be.
September 5th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
One of the reasons I like the expanded playoff is because it's potential impact on diversification of the field and thus on recruiting. In that sense, I think this could have changed the narrative and trajectory of the early Harbaugh years. They make the playoffs in 2016 and 2018 and maybe recruits that went elsewhere are taking a second look at, or even signing with, Michigan.
September 5th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
There's an article in the Athletic today ($ LINK) that shows which teams would've made a 12-team playoff since 1999. Michigan makes it in seven times (1999, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2016, 2018, 2021), tied with Clemson, PSU and Texas. tOSU leads the way with 18 appearances, followed by Oklahoma (16), Alabama (13) and Florida (12).
September 5th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
We would have been a shoe in for the playoff in 2004 as Big Ten champs, no? I think M was also top 10 heading into the Rose Bowl.
September 5th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
Shared title with Iowa in 2004. They were ranked 11th, we were 13th, so I think we would've just missed out.
September 6th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
OMG I would have LOVED to have that rematch vs. msu last year...............
September 6th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Moving forward, I really believe this will go a long ways to breaking up the cartel of Bama, OSU, and Clemson as more teams will be able to tell recruits they can come to school there and still have a chance for the playoffs. It will take a few "upsets" to make this happen, I would expect the 4v5 games to be even and some of the 3v6 games, but until that happens there will be a few 1 seeds or 2 seeds that get upset
I agree and that's why I get frustrated when people say "look at Georgia kill number 11 team, we don't need expanded playoffs". For one, those are preseason ratings. In addition, I absolutely think colleges will be able to sell kids on the chance to join their program to help them reach the playoffs. Maybe that Texas kid stays in Texas rather than join Alabama to be a 3rd string DE or whatever. Look at the programs that have been able to rise up in college basketball due to the ability to make the playoffs and get national exposure. There will always be the UNC/Duke/UK group that is more often than not a top team but then you also have teams like Gonzaga who have been able to become a national brand and attract the top talent in the country. It won't work out exactly like that with a 12 team football playoff as it will still heavily favor P5 schools, but it will help to spread out the 5 star recruits more and bring more parity to the game. Maybe an undefeated Michigan playing an undefeated OSU won't have quite the stakes, but maybe that Nebraska/Iowa game the day before has huge playoff implications (lol given their current states but historically they've been solid)
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