Updating projections as we go along and get material new info and changes.  This will be version 3; future updates will happen on an as needed basis.

• V2.0 (11/25)
• Way too Early Edition (6/03)

Working framework

• Lorenz indicated Michigan has now signaled they have 27 spots (not 28 as we all assumed)
• 21 current commits.
• Various peeps with premium access say we will grayshirt here or there, so I made some projections with that in mind.  I grayshirted 1 player.  That knocked down class to 20* (*grayshirt is still part of class but doesnt count against scholarship until January).
• We will have attrition from our current recruits, so I took best guesses and knocked out 3 not named Viramontes. That knocked current class down to 17.

Changes since last update

• DT Jordan Elliott went from "projected in class" to "committment".
• ATH Victor Viramontes (sigh) went from "committment" to "projected out of class".
• CB Lavert Hill decommitted from Penn State.
• DL Keyshon Camp hates Michigan weather so went from "projected in class" to "he gone".
• Moved ATH Chris Evans from "likely decommit" back to "committment".
• Moved DL Rashad Weaver from "committment" to "likely decommit".

Section 1 deals with current commits - who is staying and who is going. And who is going to open a spot by grayshirting. I listed us with 17 immediate scholarships and 1 grayshirt - with 3 decommits. Will discuss below chart.

Comments

• I took an educated guess with 3 decommits based on how many spots still seem in play. 
• As for the 3 decommits, one seems clear unless UM misses on just about all other LB targets: David Reese. He wants early entry, crystal ballz have all changed for him, and we are recruiting a ton of LBs still.  Hence he is "most likely".
• The other 2 decommits could come from just about any players ranked below 328, so I picked 2.  I had Chris Evans as one as he visited Purdue a while back but basically he was just a guess.  I've added him back this time around into the class and replaced him with Rashad Weaver who is sniffing around Temple so I assume this is the staff telling him to check out other options.  I've kept Kiante Enis as a decommit solely based on Ace's story that UM was only contacting him once a month; that "feels" like what Harbaugh did to commits at Stanford as a way to push them in another direction.  It's guesswork.
• Antwaine Richardon impressed coaches in a camp setting on a bum knee so I have him staying in the class; however maybe someone like he or Sir Patrick Scott could be bumped out of class if David Long, Lavert Hill and Chris Brown all want in as they all corners. But I have them both in the class at this point.
• Guessing on a grayshirt is hard to do. Half a year at UM for an out of state is still $12K or whatnot so I don't know how many kids families - esp in economically challenged spots - can afford this. Maybe they can financial aid. But a full ride elsewhere could always be the easier route. So I didn't want to put 2-3 grayshirts like some assume, so I am simply going with Josh Metellus as a guess.

Section 2 is who we will land and who we will miss on. This is based on trying to reverse engineer - obviously these things can change on a dime. I cheated here a bit by saying Quinn Nordin will be part of the class and decommit from PSU and go to UM despite having to pay out of pocket for a semester. Maybe a stretch but he is a Michigan kid and hey Harbaugh or Franklin for 4-5 years? So I have 11 commits which takes us to 29 total... 2 grayshirts.

Comments on Projected "YES"

• 2 less sure names than in V2.0 as Camp is off the board entirely, and Elliott converted from yes to committment.  So with the decommittment of Viramontes this still leaves 2 open slots in a world we get 3 more decommittments and grayshirt Metellus and Nordin.   That "problem" can be easily solved by giving them both full scholarships and then that would be the class.  I am hoping 1 of those "OPEN" spots gets refilled by Vicious Vic.  I don't see any clear candidates from the projected "NO" column to fill into this area at this time so I've just left them as open slots.
• I've split the "YES" into 2 categories - one UM feels like a clear leader or flip candidate and then more foggy.
• Gary visits in January and this battle goes down to the wire due to SEC teams invovled but at this point he really seems like UM's to lose.
• Walker had an "excellent visit" to Auburn last weekend, per Webb which sucks but thus far no crystal ballz seemed to have flipped.  But Webb seems to indicate its a bit less of a slam dunk than it was 5 days ago.  If we start hearing about new offers to running backs in coming weeks, it's time to worry.  Until then, keeping him firm.
• Davis comments post official to OSU were less than giddy - sounded like he did not get the attention he wanted and he seems less "all in on UM" vs what he once was. But at this point I still have him in the class.  A few weeks ago Lorenz said UM would prefer a tackle (Delance) over a guard (Davis) but he changed that to either would work last week.  Not sure if that means there is room for both or first come first serve.  Maybe he should be in "less certainty" bucket after last visit.
• Hill decommitted from PSU since last update; he and Corley announce together on Dec 16 - most assume UM for Hill and MSU for Corley.
• Still have Young in class but wr recruiting seems very in flux.  Lorenz expected him to commit during OSU weekend - main competition Bama and FSU but UM is only 1 of 3 that would accept a commitment today.  Lorenz says maybe hhe wants to hear more from Miami with new coach now. UM is trying to juggle Corley, Crawford, McDoom, Jones, Young.
• Jones has had UM as a favorite seemingly as long as Davis; it appears to be down to UM vs ND and UM is putting a hard core press on him with multiple visits the past few weeks.
• I have Nordin as a grayshirt - he seems destined in the class as he has now removed PSU commit from twitter and seemingly lives in Ann Arbor on weekends. 
• Bush Jr. seems 50/50 FSU v UM.  Webb says UM staff feels very comfortable he is headed to Ann Arbor and he has also gotten a lot of attention by staff these past few weeks.  We'll know mid December.
• Brown seems down to UM v Texas.  Brown's dad seems to like UM.

[this photo has nothing to do with the piece but it needed more photos and Jessica would definitely tell me "no"]

Comments on Projected "No"

• I put the "no's" who at this time could maybe be a yes down the road at the top; then I put the rest of the masses lower.  Will focus on guys at top in this section.
• To me Nauta wants to go to Georgia short of an ebola breakout hitting Athens.  Every comment he makes leaves the door wide open to go to Georgia so I am quite pensive on any chance for UM here.  We seem a clear second.
• UM is putting a full court press on flipping Long from Stanford; still seems 50/50. 
• Delance visits this weekend, so we'll see if any crystal ballz - especially of the Wiltfong / Lorenz type budge.  If not, he probably drops to not really interested category. 
• Jackson seems like the LB UM likes most who has a legit chance of liking us back but seemed to be heavy with Durkin so that is not great.  Also him tweeting stuff about Durkin being with him then getting egg on face a few days later may be a negative.   A lot of big players are still involved here.
• Vicious Vic apparently got some snake oil sold to him as a lot of shade was thrown towards UM.  Sounds like UM will try to get his mind changed so I'll put him in this category for now.

Of the rest of the "No"s

• Hardman visited, said some "generic" nice things per Brian but we seem in 3rd behind GA / TN.  He loves Pruitt.
• No movement on Kelly since last update - for a high profile recruitment we supposedly have a decent chance on you don't hear much in UM's favor other than "under the table" stuff - all the ballz to OK.
• McCullouch seems more like a dream at this point.
• Crawford is really quiet so impossible to read - the longer he does not commit to Oregon which is his dream school, I suppose better for UM.  UM was out to visit in past week.
• With Camp off the board due to weather, UM pressing on Daniels again but apparently he loves Oklahoma, and now says "distance matters" so seems like we are outside looking in there.
• Onwuzurike has been a mystery - starting to see some crystal ballz to Washington on him.
• Maybe Mathis is a backup plan for Nauta but his other main choice is UF which runs a very TE heavy offense too.
• McDoom seems to be getting Oregon attention as well.   Webb says he likes that UM is interested but doesn't know much about the program other than its a historic program (that's what sucking for many of these kids lifetimes will do).  Needs to schedule a visit to make this anything more than a distant fling.
• Jones was here for OSU game - seems to be in a category with Young.
• Hudson may be a backup plan if Bush / Jones fall through?

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