By The Numbers - Michigan State Preview
For a primer on the stats used here, go to the bottom of http://mgoblog.com/diaries/indiana-numbers
Rush Offense
A look at all of Michigan's performances this year, opponent adjusted.
Michigan's run game, obviously, hasn't a bad game all year. Their 5.6 overall average is the #5 ranked unit in the country.
As for State, they too have had generally positive performances from a top ranked (17) unit.
Sparty's 2.7 average brings down Michigan's expected performance for the game to a still solid +3 advantage.
Pass Offense
Despite more moderate yardage output, Michigan's passing value has still been solid at +3.1 overall, good for 30th in the nation.
The real opportunity opens up against Sparty's pass defense. Even when adjusting for opponents (like Notre Dame), the unit comes in at 101st in the country, -5.0.
Michigan year to date has passed less than the average MSU opponent, so if Tate and Denard?! put more balls in the air, this could be an 8 point advantage for Michigan. Even at their current passing levels, it is a solid 7 point opportunity, the biggest unit advantage in the game.
Rush Defense
The fears for this unit have been well discussed and the numbers here bare a muted version of the same story.
After a solid opening game, Michigan has regressed and fallen into the second half (67th) of the national ranks.
Without Mr. 50 carries a game, the State offensive focus has shifted and the running game is still above average (43rd) but nothing fearsome at this point.
As MSU has done all season, this shouldn't a gain or liability for either team all season, just a way to slow down BG and Roh on the pass rush.
Look for State to have a point or two advantage in the running game, depending on how much they are willing to shift focus to it vs throwing it.
Pass Defense
Despite the justified fear that comes from having but a single DB you feel safe with and a marginal pass rush, Michigan's pass defense has produced fairly well. Ranking 29th nationally, the unit has been worth 3.6 points per game to date, without a single game significantly below average.
The fear returns when looking at what Michigan State has done through the air so far this season (17th).
State has put up very solid numbers in all three game, even if Wisconsin's numbers are padded by a couple late inconsequential drives.
The net of all of this is a 2 point advantage for MSU.
Special Teams
The specialists should be a 2-3 point advantage for Michigan. We are +2 for the year, good for 12th nationally while MSU is 47 at just below 0 points per game.
Based on this years results, Michigan should have the advantage in every unit with the exception of punt return.
Predictions
Because no one can have enough predictions, I am adding predictions for all Big 10 games this week.
The numbers say Michigan has a 10 point advantage with the ball, and State a 3 point advantage when they are in possession. Home field is worth, on average about 3 points that is likely offset by Michigan's advantage in special teams and field position.
Michigan 38 MSU 31
Elsewhere in the Big 10:
NW 20 @ Purdue 40
Wisconsin 24 @ Minnesota 25
Arkansas State 7 @ Iowa 43
Penn State 31 @ Illinois 9
Ohio State 27 @ Indiana 17
Rush Offense
A look at all of Michigan's performances this year, opponent adjusted.
| Def | Total Off | Rush | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 2.42 | 50 | 242 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 5.03 | 36 | 199 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 12.75 | 37 | 399 | 6 |
| Indiana | 2.40 | 47 | 153 | 3 |
Michigan's run game, obviously, hasn't a bad game all year. Their 5.6 overall average is the #5 ranked unit in the country.
As for State, they too have had generally positive performances from a top ranked (17) unit.
| Off | Total Def | Rush | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | 4.05 | 26 | 81 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | -0.03 | 35 | 149 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 4.21 | 49 | 197 | 1 |
Sparty's 2.7 average brings down Michigan's expected performance for the game to a still solid +3 advantage.
| Player | Team | G | Value | Rush | Yards | TD | Rec Yards | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Brown | Michigan | 4 | 4.89 | 9.50 | 80.25 | 0.75 | 37.00 | 0.33 |
| Brandon Minor | Michigan | 3 | 2.08 | 10.33 | 59.00 | 0.67 |
Pass Offense
Despite more moderate yardage output, Michigan's passing value has still been solid at +3.1 overall, good for 30th in the nation.
| Def | Off Total | Att | Comp | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 8.39 | 28 | 15 | 197 | 3 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 0.63 | 35 | 25 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
| Eastern Michigan | -2.95 | 19 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 2 |
| Indiana | 6.52 | 26 | 15 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
The real opportunity opens up against Sparty's pass defense. Even when adjusting for opponents (like Notre Dame), the unit comes in at 101st in the country, -5.0.
| Off | Def Total | Att | Comp | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | -6.19 | 50 | 36 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | -1.49 | 36 | 26 | 288 | 3 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | -7.29 | 31 | 19 | 243 | 4 | 0 |
Michigan year to date has passed less than the average MSU opponent, so if Tate and Denard?! put more balls in the air, this could be an 8 point advantage for Michigan. Even at their current passing levels, it is a solid 7 point opportunity, the biggest unit advantage in the game.
| Player | Team | G | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Att | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate Forcier | Michigan | 4 | 5.60 | 167.75 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 40.50 | 0.50 | 21.75 | 13.50 |
| D Robinson | Michigan | 3 | 2.19 | 19.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 51.67 | 1.00 | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| Player | Team | G | Value | Value+ | Rec | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Mathews | Michigan | 2 | 3.13 | 1.17 | 3.50 | 43.00 | 0.50 |
| J Hemingway | Michigan | 3 | 3.01 | 2.54 | 2.33 | 37.00 | 0.67 |
| Kevin Koger | Michigan | 3 | 2.76 | 2.70 | 2.67 | 35.33 | 0.67 |
Rush Defense
The fears for this unit have been well discussed and the numbers here bare a muted version of the same story.
| Off | Total Def | Rush | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 2.97 | 21 | 45 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | -1.81 | 29 | 159 | 1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 0.39 | 46 | 192 | 2 |
| Indiana | -2.52 | 32 | 209 | 3 |
After a solid opening game, Michigan has regressed and fallen into the second half (67th) of the national ranks.
Without Mr. 50 carries a game, the State offensive focus has shifted and the running game is still above average (43rd) but nothing fearsome at this point.
| Def | Total Off | Rush | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | -0.26 | 29 | 106 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 1.27 | 25 | 105 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 1.09 | 19 | 101 | 0 |
As MSU has done all season, this shouldn't a gain or liability for either team all season, just a way to slow down BG and Roh on the pass rush.
Look for State to have a point or two advantage in the running game, depending on how much they are willing to shift focus to it vs throwing it.
| Player | Team | G | Value | Rush | Yards | TD | Rec Yards | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Caper | Michigan State | 3 | 1.14 | 8.00 | 35.67 | 0.67 | ||
| Caulton Ray | Michigan State | 3 | -0.21 | 7.33 | 24.67 | 0.33 |
Pass Defense
Despite the justified fear that comes from having but a single DB you feel safe with and a marginal pass rush, Michigan's pass defense has produced fairly well. Ranking 29th nationally, the unit has been worth 3.6 points per game to date, without a single game significantly below average.
| Off | Def Total | Att | Comp | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 8.75 | 41 | 25 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
| Notre Dame | 2.41 | 42 | 25 | 336 | 3 | 0 |
| Eastern Michigan | -0.21 | 27 | 16 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Indiana | 3.72 | 39 | 22 | 258 | 0 | 1 |
The fear returns when looking at what Michigan State has done through the air so far this season (17th).
| Def | Off Total | Att | Comp | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | 8.07 | 27 | 17 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 3.63 | 39 | 25 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 4.60 | 48 | 26 | 384 | 4 | 3 |
State has put up very solid numbers in all three game, even if Wisconsin's numbers are padded by a couple late inconsequential drives.
The net of all of this is a 2 point advantage for MSU.
| Player | Team | G | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Att | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | Michigan State | 3 | 3.91 | 222.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 29.00 | 17.67 |
| Keith Nichol | Michigan State | 3 | 2.40 | 84.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 18.67 | 0.00 | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| Player | Team | G | Value | Value+ | Rec | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Dell | Michigan State | 2 | 6.59 | 3.52 | 5.50 | 97.50 | 0.50 |
| B Cunningham | Michigan State | 3 | 6.42 | 3.37 | 6.00 | 79.67 | 1.00 |
| Keshawn Martin | Michigan State | 2 | 5.47 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 76.50 | 1.00 |
| Blair White | Michigan State | 3 | 5.07 | 3.49 | 4.67 | 62.67 | 0.67 |
Special Teams
The specialists should be a 2-3 point advantage for Michigan. We are +2 for the year, good for 12th nationally while MSU is 47 at just below 0 points per game.
Based on this years results, Michigan should have the advantage in every unit with the exception of punt return.
Predictions
Because no one can have enough predictions, I am adding predictions for all Big 10 games this week.
The numbers say Michigan has a 10 point advantage with the ball, and State a 3 point advantage when they are in possession. Home field is worth, on average about 3 points that is likely offset by Michigan's advantage in special teams and field position.
Michigan 38 MSU 31
Elsewhere in the Big 10:
NW 20 @ Purdue 40
Wisconsin 24 @ Minnesota 25
Arkansas State 7 @ Iowa 43
Penn State 31 @ Illinois 9
Ohio State 27 @ Indiana 17
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:13 PM ^
regressing your numbers? Michigan may well be better, but I doubt they are 10.5 points better than the line on average (i.e. imagining the teams played numerous games against each other). How much do we really know after 1/3 of the season?
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:23 PM ^
There is definitely a lot of noise in the system at this point in the season, but it also surprising how quickly the season's data pulls out real trends. Doing this for last weeks games, with no more than 3 games data on any team, I had 17 games that had at least a ten point variance to the spread and went 12-5 against the spread in the those games. Don't expect to get those results every time (otherwise I'd be in Vegas right now) but at the same time the data overall holds up pretty well at this point in the season.
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:38 AM ^
Let's see how you do this week...If it holds, you should absolutely be going to Vegas with the system in tow.
I'll drive.
October 3rd, 2009 at 2:16 PM ^
not anything that the smart money isn't already doing, anyway.
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:19 PM ^
if Michigan's true talent is 7 points better than State, that's an implied chance of winning of about 70%. The line currently has State winning about 60% of the time. That's a huge swing, presumably worth betting on.
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:19 PM ^
Talking about the pass defense you note there was no game below average. I haven't delved into the numbers, but find it surprising that the notre dame game was not below average at best...
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:28 PM ^
On an unadjusted basis you are correct, but when saying average, I was talking in relation to opponent. Michigan's performance against ND was the second best performance by a defense against them so far this season.
Off Def Value
Notre Dame Nevada 16.41
Notre Dame Michigan State 10.92
Notre Dame Michigan 8.33
Notre Dame Purdue -1.36
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:25 PM ^
Is there anyway to adjust for a Floyd/Clausen factor for the Purdue number?
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:27 AM ^
Could probably go back in and estimate a value that was lost due to the injuries and lost time. However, since I can't do that for every team in the overall picture, the fundamental numbers will stay the same but I will note any adjustments directly affecting Michigan in my writeups.
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:35 PM ^
Add +7 for MSU's continued woes on the DL, and subtract 7 from MSU for the difficulty in passing in the rain, and you get 45-24.
I pray for an Indiana upset of Ohio State Community College.
October 2nd, 2009 at 4:04 PM ^
Great stuff. A weekly feature of this would be outstanding.
October 2nd, 2009 at 4:11 PM ^
this reminds me of fangraphs.com, a baseball site that measures things by runs above and below average. Where did you pull all the info? Keep doing these posts.
October 2nd, 2009 at 4:14 PM ^
This is all done myself in spare time. I pull play by play data from the NCAA and "translate" it all in spreadsheets then dump it in Access to be queried.
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:20 PM ^
Keep doing. I'm really fascinated with the whole yards above/below average thing. I think it's a valuable measuring tool.
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 PM ^
I know you've done your analysis based on the actual numbers, but I don't see any way that Iowa puts up 43 or Indiana scores 17 on OSU. It's just not going to happen.
Other than that, good work as usual. Out of curiosity, how are you building and maintaining your database of situational data? Parsing PBP data into a query-able DB? I've considered doing that in the past, but frankly I'm too lazy. Anyway, admirable stuff you've put together here.
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:42 PM ^
Great diary. Thank you for sharing this. Don't stop.
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