First, I want to lead off by giving props to Gary Moeller.  He became coach at Michigan when I was 10 years old and I was a big NFL fan, but college football had yet to capture my imagination.  Moeller's teams quickly changed that.  They ran the ball down people's throats, then they got you off balance with their beautiful screens and draw plays, and finally they'd hit you over the top to a blazing wide receiver with a phenomenal name.  Mercury Hayes, Amani Toomer, Desmond Howard, Derrick Alexander, Jon Vaughn, Tyrone Wheatley, Tim Biakabutuka and Elvis Grbac are just some of the names he helped propel to superstar status during his tenure. For my money there hasn't been as aesthetically pleasing of an offense at Michigan since the Moeller era, and if I want to watch some football highlights that will put me in a good mood, 1990-1994 is my go-to.  Rest in peace Gary, and thank you for helping to ignite my passion for Michigan football.   

In addition to being awesome to watch, Michigan football was 44-13-3 under Moeller, won or shared three conference championships, and according to College Football Reference's ranking system (SRS) never finished a season outside the top ten in his five years - it was undeniably a great time to be a Michigan fan.  With that being said, holy shit was his tenure a mine field of gut punch losses.  Despite having experienced this era first hand as a fan, looking back through old box scores I couldn’t help but be slack jawed at how many losses came in the most agonizing way possible.  Apparently, I had repressed the memories.  The Harbaugh era has had its share of tough losses, but I don't think it can hold a candle to what Moeller's teams endured in that era.  So, with Moeller's passing, I think it's a good time to relive his tenure, unfortunately highlighting the losses that were such a big part of his time at Michigan.  

For this post I'm going to examine all of Michigan's brutal losses or ties under Moeller, and rank them on how soul crushing they were. Quickly, I think it's worth going over what makes a loss more devastating than others:  1. Stakes - Michigan in this era was pretty much always ranked somewhere in the top 10 and was always in the Big Ten title and national title hunt, and any loss could wipe that away.  Therefore, we can just always assume every game had the highest stakes possible.  2.  Feeling like your team should have won - this can come down to statistical dominance or blowing a lead late in the game. (Think OSU 2016) 3.  Unlucky shit happening to your team - bad calls by the referees or fluky plays that led to the loss. (Think every Michigan loss to MSU in the Harbaugh era).  4.  The game being close - It sucks to lose in a blowout, but in a way it's relief as you don't dwell on it as much as you feel like the better team won.  Generally, the losses that stay with you are games it felt like your team could have pulled out.  So, for this exercise we're just going to focus on the close losses (7 points or less).  Let's get to it!  

 

1990 Overview - Michigan went 9-3 to take a four way share of the Big Ten title along with MSU, Illinois and Iowa.  End of season SRS ranking 5th.  They were 2-3 in one score games.  The losses: 

Notre Dame - Wow, what a ball breaker to start Moeller's career.  Probably should have been a sign of how things would go.  This checked all the boxes of a devastating loss.  Michigan was #4 and Notre Dame #1 coming into the game.  Michigan should have won and outplayed Notre Dame outgaining them 443-399, with YPP being 6.3-5.3.  Michigan blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead, and it required an incredibly fluky play by Notre Dame to win:  

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That play happened on 3rd and 15 from the Notre Dame 15-yard line late in the 3rd quarter with Michigan up 10.  If it falls to the ground like it would have 999 out of 1,000 times if you replayed that deflection, Notre Dame punts, Michigan gets the ball at midfield and likely scores to seal the game.  Instead, the Irish score a touchdown on that drive to make it a 3-point game and pull it out with a 4th quarter touchdown, winning 28-24.   

Dong Punch Level - 12/10.  Like sticking your genitals in a blender and turning the level to frappe

Michigan State - Another cruel loss.  This was a back-and-forth game, but Michigan was the slightly better team outgaining MSU 389-365 to a tune of 5.7 YPP - 4.9.  Michigan also had a Desmond Howard kick return touchdown on top of that, so it's hard to believe they lost.  I'm sure even those of you who were too young to experience this game know how it ended - with perhaps the worst refereeing decision in the history of college football.  Down 28-27 with 6 seconds remaining and having just scored a touchdown, Michigan elected to go for 2 to win the game instead of tie:

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Incomplete pass.  No flag.  Game over.  

Dong Punch Level - 13/10.  Complete injustice.  If I had been 8 years older and had a flame thrower East Lansing would no longer exist (although that city had probably evolved to be flame retardant by that point?!)

Iowa - Not a ton to say about this game.  Iowa scored to take the lead with 1:09 left in the 4th quarter to seal the win 24-23, but they had been the better team for the second half and it was a slight miracle that Michigan still held the lead at that point.  Still rough cause it cost Michigan an outright Big Ten championship.  

Dong Punch Level - 8/10.  Like getting kicked in the nuts five seconds after having just taken a shot there with a baseball bat.  It hurts but you're pretty much already numb to the pain.  

So, yeah, 1990 was a rough start for Moeller.  Three losses by a total of 6 points, making it quite easy to envision a more fortunate Michigan team playing for a national championship in that season rather than the Gator Bowl.  

1991 Overview -

Michigan went 10-2 to win an outright Big Ten title, but lost handily to the top two teams in the country in Florida State and Washington.  They had zero one score games and they ended the season 5th in SRS.  Great team, but clearly a notch below the steroid abusers - er, best teams in the country rather.  Let's move on as they were no heart breakers this year.  

1992 Overview -

9-0-3 record, outright Big Ten title, ended 5th in SRS.  2-0-3 in one score games. These will get slightly lower dong punch scores because ties are slightly easier to swallow than losses. Let's take a look at those ties: 

Notre Dame - This was pretty much a toss up to the stats, Notre Dame outgained Michigan 398-378, but Michigan was slightly better on a per play basis, 6.0-5.8.  This was hard result to take because Michigan again led by 10 going into the 4th quarter, and when Notre Dame had the ball deep in their own territory with a couple of minutes left in the game, Lou Holtz decided to kill the clock instead of going for the win, thus ensuring the 17-17 tie.  It was in stark contrast to Moeller's 2-point decision two years prior against MSU, and exposed Notre Dame as the chickens they continue to be.  Somehow though, Michigan was the team to get the fluky plays as they recovered three Notre Dame fumbles, but couldn't capitalize on that turnover advantage.  

Dong Punch Level - 8/10.  Like getting emotionally invested in an argument with an obvious imbecile in the YouTube comments section, you can't help but lower yourself to their level and it just ends up embarrassing you while keeping you up at night.  

Illinois - This was a game Michigan completely dominated to a tune of 523 yards - 314, and a YPP differential of 6.9-4.2.  They blew the game on the back of 10 (!!!!) fumbles, 4 (!!!) of which Illinois recovered.  Michigan actually needed to kick a field goal with sixteen seconds left just to salvage the tie, 22-22.  

Dong Punch Level - 9/10.  Like losing the argument to the moron in the YouTube comments section.

Ohio State - Michigan was outgained by nearly 100 yards, but still was better than OSU on a per down basis.  Michigan blew another 10-point fourth quarter lead in this game, already the third such occasion in Moeller's tenure.  The game ended 13-13. 

Dong Punch Level - 9/10.  Like washing your pants that had note in a pocket with a really hot girl’s phone number written on it - feels like a pretty big missed opportunity.      

1992 - three ties, three blown fourth quarter leads (they led Illinois going into the 4th quarter), no shot at the national title come bowl season. 

1993 Overview – 

8-4 record, 0-3 in close games.  Finished the season ranked 9th in SRS. 

Notre Dame – Michigan was the statistically better team in this game, but I’m assuming a big part of that was because Notre Dame stormed out front and Michigan was playing catch up in the second half.  Michigan needed a final minute touchdown just to get the game within four, and Notre Dame won this 27-23. 

Dong Punch Level – 6/10.  Like being tied to a chair and being forced to watch daytime television.

Illinois – Michigan was slightly outgained by Illinois, but held a hefty YPP advantage of 6.7-5.7.  This was another big fourth quarter lead blown by a Moeller team, this time 11 points, and Illinois took the lead with 41 seconds remaining by converting on a 4th down and 6 from Michigan 15-yard line.  Illinois 24-21.  Brutal, and holy shit was Illinois a thorn in Moeller’s side as the following year Michigan dominated them again but had to sweat out a 5-point win.  I guess this is the era that Illinois being Michigan’s rival became a thing permanently entrenched in Illinois fan’s minds.        

Dong Punch Level – 11/10.  Like being tied to a chair by Red Dragon who forces you to watch replays of your most embarrassing moments in high school, while repeatedly asking, “Do you see?” 

Wisconsin – Michigan won the yardage battle 359-343 and 5.7-4.9 but were undone by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Wisconsin recovered all three fumbles in the game, two of their own, and one of Michigan’s.  I don’t remember this game at all, but it looked quite boring based on the box score and I’m sure the fans in Madison were unbearable about it.  The 13-10 loss dropped Michigan to 4-4 on the season, and they would be unranked for the first time (and for the last time following their subsequent four game win streak) in the Moeller era.   

Dong Punch Level – 7/10. Like spilling scolding hot coffee on your crotch while sitting in the middle seat on an airplane.  Every second you’re left to stew in it feels like an eternity. 

So, 1993, another tough season for Moeller.  Finished 8-4 when they really should have been 10-2. 

1994 Overview – 8-4 record, 2-2 in one score games, finished 7th to SRS. 

Colorado – You’d guess based on the stats that Colorado deserved to win this game.  They outgained Michigan 511-415, to a tune of 6.8 YPP to 6.4.  However, that was because Michigan spent most of the 4th quarter trying to kill clock rather than put the game away.  Following Michigan’s fullback (on his only touch of the game no less) fumbling the ball at the Colorado 15-yard line with 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter to give Colorado life, Michigan held a 26-14 lead with a 415-280 yardage advantage, and a YPP edge of 7.2(!!!)-5.5.  You probably know how this one ended – with Colorado’s Kordell Stewart completing a 65-yard hail Mary as time expired to win 27-26.  Michigan had held a 12-point lead just two minutes and 16 seconds of game time prior to that miracle. 

Dong Punch Level – 15/10.  An all-timer.  Like the worst thing that’s happened to anybody in the history of everything – not being able to find the TV remote when the Pitbull Dr. Pepper commercial comes on. 

Penn State – PSU outgained Michigan 444-437, but Michigan dominated on a per play basis 7.2-6.0.  Penn State also got an awful call in their favor when Michigan safety Chuck Winters ripped the ball out of PSU running back Kijana Carter’s hands while he was still standing, but the refs decided to call him down. (See 40:46 at this link for video of the play: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2OihwT_iDc)

 

You can’t say this call was a definite game changer as Michigan still stopped PSU on that drive, however they would get the ball at their own 14 instead of their own 38, and proceed to go 3 and out after having scored TDs on 3 of their 4 previous drives.  So, it did seem to change the momentum a bit.  Plus, it was just a blatantly obvious missed call which makes it harder to stomach.  Penn State would take the lead 31-24 on a 16-yard TD reception on 3rd and 11 with 2:53 remaining in the game.  Michigan would stall out on their ensuing possession despite having a 3rd and about an inch at the PSU 41 with a minute and a half remaining; first, by getting stuffed on a 3rd down handoff, then throwing an interception on 4th and 1.  I remember the following Monday at school my friend being incensed at how a coach couldn’t just call two QB sneaks in a row at that situation of a game, as it seems almost impossible not to pick up one inch with two opportunities at it, and it’s hard to argue with his reasoning.  Penn State would hold on to win 31-24 and finish the season undefeated (but end up second in the polls). 

Dong Punch Level – 9/10.  Like flushing the toilet at a party and having it overflow, and so everyone at the party judges you, when in fact it was the guy in front of you who took the massive shit that clogged the toilet. 

That was 1994.  An 8-4 team that was probably more deserving of being 9-3 or 10-2.  And that was it for the Moeller era as he resigned following an embarrassing incident in May of 1995. 

 

TLDR version – Moeller’s Michigan went 6-8-3 in one score games during his five-year tenure.  That may not sound so awful, but for a consistently top ten team it’s quite remarkable to be under .500. For comparison’s sake, D’Antonio was 34-23 in one score games at MSU over his 13 years, and evil incarnate (AKA Urban Meyer) was 21-3 (!!!) during his seven seasons at OSU.  In five of the 11 losses/ties, Michigan was leading by 10 or more points entering the fourth quarter.  Of Michigan’s six wins, you could argue they were fortunate to win in two of them (1990 OSU and 1993 Notre Dame, both games they won on last second field goals), but those were both basically 50/50 games and they deserved to win all the others.  In their 11 losses/ties I would say there were actually two they deserved to lose (1990 Iowa and 1993 Notre Dame), four were coin flips, and five were injustices of the highest order (1990 Notre Dame and MSU, 1992 Illinois, 1993 Illinois and 1994 Colorado).   So, basically with any modicum of luck, Moeller would have been at worst 11-4-2 in these close games, thus possibly playing in multiple bowl games with national titles at stake, and would be remembered with much more reverence by college football fans.  Here’s a chart combining statistics from those 17 close games that further shows Michigan’s poor fortune in them:

My first thought when reviewing all these brutal losses was to ponder if this is what caused Moeller’s drunken outburst that led to his resigning.  For me personally, when I get one bad beat in a poker game with a $10 buy in, I feel like the universe is against me and I spend the next week in an existential crisis wondering what the point of this whole life thing is.  With all these bad beats in such a high-profile high-stakes position, it had to have an effect on Moeller’s mental state and makes me wonder how much it contributed to his drunken behavior.  Probably not as much as I think, alcohol makes you do weird and stupid things, but it’s probably not nothing either. 

Questions I have for the board:  Has any other team that was consistently a preseason national title contender suffered so many rough losses over a five-year period as this? Did OSU under Cooper come close to this? For people who are a bit older than me and probably remember the games in more detail than me, how much of these late collapse losses fall on Moeller’s shoulders?  (I didn’t rewatch full games other than the Colorado game, and he turtled up pretty good in that one. Basically, one first down in the final ten minutes would have sealed that game and Michigan ran nine times for three 3-and-outs over that stretch.  It still took a miracle for Colorado to win, but Moeller’s play-calling left the door open.)  I’d also just love to hear people’s memories who were at some of these games and memories of the Moeller era in general. 

 

All stats via the Bentley Historical Library - http://websites.umich.edu/~bhlumrec/athdept/fbstats/

One final note - I haven't listened to the MGoPodcast that covered Moeller, so hopefully this isn't just retreading something they went over in that.