Michigan Offense on 1st Down Stats

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on

So in the last installment of this series of statistics, I gave you some indications on how the defense is performing on 3rd down. In this one, I look more at how Michigan approaches 1st down and the results thereof. I currently plan on having one of these for 2nd down as well, but we'll see how it goes. Same stipulations as last time:

This is from ESPN box scores so they may not match up perfectly with UFR (as I found at least one error in the last installment). Yards-to-go might vary slightly.

  • Most of this was done typing through quickly without double checking every little detail. I wouldn't be surprised if I was missing one play. I'm also not worried if I did.
  • This is only 6 games, so there are only so many snaps available in some situations. So if we're 1/1 on 1st&50 (which we're not), it could make some statistics look unlike you'd expect.
  • My box scores don't distinguish passing plays that go to scrambles.
  • My definition of successful on 1st or 2nd down is gaining half the yards needed for a new 1st down. So on 1st&10, 5 yards would be considered successful. If it's 1st&20, it would take 10 yards to be successful. This way I can use a common formula for every play, as 3-5 yards isn't enough when it's 2nd&20 type scenarios. It does make it kind of strange to classify runs of 4 yards on 1st&10 as unsuccessful when they probably should be considered successful. So keep that in mind as well. With that said, we'll start with 1st down.  Michigan has taken a snap on 1st down a total of 175 times (excluding kneel plays). On those plays, we've had 158 that are 1st&10, the others either being 1st&goal, or 1&5/1&15/1st&20 after a penalty.
  • Again, I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions, but rather just provide information. Do with it as you wish.
    On 1st&10, Michigan has run the ball 109 times while passing the ball 46 times (plus 3 sacks, kept separate because they are pass plays that go for rushing yardage). That's about 69% rushing plays on 1st&10, again, taking into account scrambles weight that number a little bit higher than what it really is. On those 1st&10 plays, here is a break down of what I consider successful plays by rush/pass:
    image 

S-Rush are successful runs (gains at least 5 yards in this case), U-Rush are "unsuccessful runs" (gains less than 5 yards), S-Pass are passes for at least 5 yards, and U-Pass are either incomplete or complete for less than 5 yards.

As far as the passing, Michigan has a very high completion rate on 1st&10. Only 18 of the U-Passes are incomplete, which says something both about our passers' and the easy throws they tend to be making. If you excise those 18 incompletions, that leaves you with only 5 passes that are brought down for less than 5 yards, which is a pretty good number in my e-pinion. Our average pass play on 1st&10 is going for just over 5 yards, while the average completion is going for about 8.

The running game needs a little bit more explaining. Since this is based on 5 yards to be successful, the ratio of successful to unsuccessful is somewhat skewed toward unsuccessful. Seven of those 52 runs still went for 4 yards, and another 6 runs went for 3 yards.

I would argue that those would be generally accepted to be still pretty successful. If that's the case, you're looking at a ratio closer to 70 successful runs to 39 unsuccessful runs. If that's not enough for you, to support the success we're having on the ground on 1st&10, I'll point to the ~5.7 yards per carry we're averaging. That's pretty good.

In 1st and less than 10, 8 of which of the 1st&GL situations, Michigan has 10 1st down attempts. Of those attempts, we've run the ball 9 times, the lone passing attempt being a non-1st&GL attempt after a Notre Dame offsides penalty.

Of the runs, only 3 were considered successful, which can be explained by being in the redzone where defenses tend to clamp down on the run. That said, we also only averaged 1.1 yards per carry in this situation. A look:

Team Down Yards-To-Go Yards Gained Note
WMU 1 9 2  
ND 1 2 2  
ND 1 1 0  
ND 1 7 -1  
EMU 1 5 -4 Not in redzone
EMU 1 8 0  
IOWA 1 3 3 TD
IOWA 1 8 7  
IOWA 1 9 1  

Take that for what you will.

On 1st and longer than 10, we don't have too many examples to choose from, but we did have one wildly successful play come from it. Chart:

Team Down Yards-To-Go Rush/Pass Yards Gained Note
WMU 1 15 rush 4  
WMU 1 15 rush 43 TD
Indiana 1 15 rush 7  
WMU 1 20 pass 0  
ND 1 20 pass 3  
Indiana 1 20 pass 0 INT-Forcier
IOWA 1 15 pass 0  

That touchdown gets the edge over the interception as the INT only lead to 3 points, IIRC. Passing obviously hasn't gone well here. Teams obviously are gearing up for the pass when we're in these long situations, and it shows as we can hardly get off screen passes.

Comments

IBleedMaizeNBlue

October 12th, 2009 at 6:40 PM ^

Thanks for posting this. This puts numbers to what I've been harping on for trends of the Michigan offense. In MY e-pinion, the biggest problem for this offense is the plays that go for negative or no yardage on first down (not counting X and Goal situations). This is the root of many of the problems that we see with the plethora of 3-and-outs. This is not unique to Michigan football. Many coaches simplify what needs to be accomplished on offense by breaking it down into manageable goals. This goal for Michigan would be to "win" the first downs. If the team can gain positive yardage on first down, the playbook opens up very significantly for the coach or the o-coordinator. Positive yards on first down is a key facet to the elusive "building of momentum". Gaining positive yards on first down not only builds the players' confidence, but the coach can now elect to run a bread-and-butter play (one that the team practices a lot, and is regarded as a guaranteed gain) to further churn out yardage and get the offense moving forward. This option may not be available if the team is forced to go with plays that are designed to produce larger chunks of yardage if they are forced to make up for the yardage lost (or not gained) on first down. (As an aside, the importance of a productive running game are also important for these reasons). Too often this season Michigan has put itself in a situation where it is forced to gain more yards in fewer tries. This restricts the playbook for a coach or o-coordinator to find two plays that will now go 10+ yards. These plays are more likely to be passing plays rather than running plays (which average, on a team with a solid running game, about 3.5 yards/carry). A higher frequency of passing plays puts a lot of pressure on an inexperienced QB: the more often we lose yards on first down, the more often our QB is called upon to make the right reads and a good throw on longer passing plays. Statistically, as more of these situations present themselves (QB having to make longer passes, more difficult throws/reads), the QB is presented with more opportunities to show his inexperience. The resulting problems bleed into each other: if we do not make up the yardage, we go 3-and-out. The more 3-and-outs we get, the longer our D must be on the field, and the less likely our offense is to establish a rhythm and sustain drives. The less effective our offense, the less points we score on O. The less points we score on O, the more likely we are to lose. For an example of this, see the first three quarters of the MSU game. I'd be interested to see the numbers on first down for that game. In short, when you lose yardage on first down, you're in a jam. You're behind where you want to be. With the focus on "winning" the first down (which Michigan is perfectly capable of doing since we're highly ranked in the big ten for total offense), Michigan will have much greater success with their offense.

Joined: 07/01/2008

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oakapple

October 13th, 2009 at 8:15 AM ^

You have it about right. As I recall from past studies, five yards is indeed the over/under on 1st & 10. It may seem counter-intuitive, but a gain of 4 yards is actually a mild failure. The chance of converting 2nd & 6 is slightly worse than the chance of converting 1st & 10, so if you only gain 4 yards, you've made your job harder.

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