Measuring efficiency of converting yards to points

Submitted by PopeLando on October 31st, 2018 at 2:36 PM

I, like many of you, have been pretty frustrated thus far with our offense’s perceived struggles. In many games, we’ve put up a lot of yards, but the scoreboard hasn’t really reflected that, so the narrative has become “we’re bad at turning yards into points.”

My questions were: how inefficient are we at turning yards/plays into points, and how does that compare to the rest of the B1G and some notable teams in the rest of the country?

Some notes:

  • I included the entire B1G, plus Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Houston.
  • Total Points includes FGs made, and offensive TDs only.
    • My analysis does not include PATs and 2-pt conversions, because at that point you’ve already done the yardage/play work. This decision on my part can be debated if you like.
  • This does not account for strength of opponent. The skew is strong in this one.
  • This does not excise short fields due to turnovers (i.e., MSU’s 7-yard TD drive last week really helps their numbers here) or long kick returns.
  • Source: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27

Might as well –

CHART

Sorted according to Yards/Point. Obviously, the lower your Yards/Point or Plays/Point metric is, the more efficient you are.

Yards-Points.JPG

Observations:

  • Rutgers…Jesus…
  • So it turns out we’re not as bad as I might have thought. If you look at only B1G competition, we’re second-best at turning yards into points.
  • Penn State has been really efficient, both with the Yards/Point and the Plays/Point.
  • You can’t really answer the “how good is our offense” question with this analysis. OSU still puts up half a yard per play better than us, with an additional 135 yards of offense per game; the fact that they’re about as efficient as Michigan at turning those yards into points tells me more about the number of drives they’re taking than it assuages my fear level (still at 10, thank you very much).

Anything else you see? To me this is interesting but still incomplete. Maybe I should have looked at Points/Drive instead?

Comments

kejamder

October 31st, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^

I think I can intuitively understand yards or plays per point, but it's different to see points in the denominator. What if you flipped it to points/yard gained or points/play? It should still show the same conclusion, but maybe in a more common or easily understandable format? 

EastCoast_Wolv…

October 31st, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

What about looking at the ratio of yards/point to points/play? Mathematically this is just points/play, which is the inverse of your last column (plays/point). But intuitively it feels like a comparison of "how good is your offense at moving the ball" to "how bad (since lower values are better) is your offense at converting yards to points". Michigan's still 3rd in the Big Ten but only slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Maryland.

GarMoe

November 1st, 2018 at 7:13 AM ^

They’re small numbers but I think he’s on to the real measure though.  That’s was the first thing I wanted to see as well.   You can still use those to compare across teams.  And to be honest, the title seems to indicate that would be the goal - turning yards in to points hence how many points per yard.

Tex_Ind_Blue

October 31st, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

Thanks for taking the time to gather all the data. How do these teams compare in terms of scoring drives? Do they score on most of the drives or only in a handful? For instance, a 2 play TD drive for 90 yards  would include a long play. A 16 play TD drive of 90 yards would achieve the same yds/point but different plays/point. Who is more efficient? Who kills more clock thus eliminating couple of chances for the opponent? 

Bambi

October 31st, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^

It's a good thought and has the potential to be a good measuring stick/discussion point, but any real conclusions seem incomplete without adjusting for opponents or short fields IMO.

Take PSU for example. Against Iowa they had 7 points from a pick that gave them the ball on the 3. 3 were from a FG after a big kick return where PSU didn't get a first. A drive where their offense didn't pick up a first down helps them here because they were already in FG range.

Against Indiana they scored 33 points. 7 were from a kick return to the IU 5. 7 were from a kick return to the IU 36. 3 were after a punt fumble when PSU only got 24 yards. So in reality that's 16 points from their offense on full field drives. Those two games alone hugely skew the numbers. And it's not even like the KJ 93 yard TD against OSU or the Sanders 78 run vs MSU because they made those plays happens. These are just drives where the PSU offense did nothing really but got gifted points.

PopeLando

October 31st, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^

Yeah, I agree. Reviewing this, I think a scatter chart of drive length coupled with a points/drive metric would be more instructive. 

But on the good side, it means that we can put a worry-inspiring narrative to bed: we are not, in gross and taking everything else equal, uncommonly inefficient at converting yards to points. To me, that's a valuable place to start!

Bambi

October 31st, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^

Agreed. This is definitely a good start and seems to me like a great example of "here's a an idea I had with some back of the envelope calculations to prove the general point. Now lets fine tune it."

The drive length thing is a good idea. This may be harder to do but maybe some metric including potential yards gained/yards available to gain, weighted towards drives with a larger denominator. 

IE give a team credit for scoring a TD on a 5 yard TD drive, because punching that in is still valuable. But also give teams credit for longer TD drives. Then you can also account for a FG drive that started at your own 20 and finished at the opposing 20 versus a FG drive like PSU had against Iowa without a first down.

NittanyFan

October 31st, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

Good analysis.  A couple methodological points:

1. The "more correct" way to do this is to have a historical database where you have information "the average team that started a drive from their own 32 yard line scored 2.9 points."  Then be able to compare individual drives against that.  As you said, short fields can skew things dramatically.

2. As I understand it, this is, to a large extent, a part of the FEI methodology.  S&P+ looks at things a bit differently (play-by-play), but FEI is more drive-by-drive in its analysis.

3. Obviously, junk drives/time should be excluded (or weighted lower) too.  When Alabama leads 77-3 in the mid-4th Quarter, their 0-point, 39-yard drive doesn't really matter much.

hammermw

October 31st, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^

What about our defense? It feels like we give up a lot of points per yard.

Hasn't been like it the last couple of games, but last year and the first half of this year, it felt like we gave up all of yards on TD drives. There weren't many drives where we gave up a couple first down and then punt.

Wallaby Court

October 31st, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^

I like this and see two potential ways to account for the distortion of short, successful drives caused by returns or turnovers. The first would be to weight drives and points based on length. However, I suspect that would change the purpose of the metric. Alternately, you could simply filter out all drives that start inside the opponent's 30 (or 25 or 20) yard line. At some range, points should be assumed, either from a field goal or a touchdown.

trustBlue

November 1st, 2018 at 2:42 AM ^

1) I am not getting the exact same data as shown here - is your data is based on 7 games rather than 8? (I think the ncaa site may have updated shortly after you posted.) It's a little weird with only 7 games since the UM-MSU game would be included for MSU, but not for UM. 

2) I would be interested to see the data sorted a few different ways (e.g. by total points, or by total yards, or by yards per play):

Just eyeballing the numbers, it seems like yards-per-play is the most directly correlated to scoring output, while factors like total # of offensive-plays seem to have little or no correlation to scoring output (Indiana leads all teams in number of offensive plays by a significant margin, but is only average in total scoring).

Yards/Point seems to be somewhat (inversely-) correlated with total scoring, but the correlation seems much weaker than Yards/Play - Purdue is the third highest scoring team in the league but its Yards/Point is almost the same as Northwestern and MSU, which are the two lowest scoring teams in the conference not named Rutger.

Overall it certainly seems to the suggest that the "bad at turning yards into points" is definitely incorrect vis-a-vis Michigan, and more generally, that points-per-yard is probably not a good predictor of total offense for any team. The better route for putting more points on the board would seem to be to just focus on putting up more total yards/yard per play and that the points will tend to take care of themselves.

blueinbelfast

November 1st, 2018 at 8:29 AM ^

I've found the media's writing off our offense very problematic. We've very clearly placed an emphasis on the ground game (and TOP) with the intention of wearing down defenses over the course of the game, even if it holds us back from putting up big points. There is significant risk in this strategy, especially against a team like PSU. But at the same time, it has allowed us, at least in theory, to keep significant aspects of our offense under wraps as we come up to this crucial final run. I suppose we might want to test a more wide-open style under game conditions. But, on the other hand, if we are capable of that more wide-open style, we now have PSU, OSU, and any potential later opponents primed to play a team that plays a grind-it-out-on-the-ground style of offense, when it's far from inconceivable that we could (especially with Black back) open a game with an aerial attack that would completely knock a quality opponent for a loop.

Am I dreaming? Quite possibly. But the potential is definitely there.

johnlewing

November 1st, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^

I suspect a good portion of the measurements is measuring how good an offense is at avoiding penalty yards and/or gaining yards on defense penalties.  This could be a little bit distorting.

Michigan and Ohio State are both highly penalized teams - 112 and 119 of 129.  Unfortunately the stats are in total so you don't know how it breaks down between offense and defense.

Penn State, Alabama, Houston, and Notre Dame are all top 50.  Oklahoma is 73, which is near the median, so for them the measure of efficiency is probably truly true and impressive as a measure of yards while being penalized about average.

Not saying the stats aren't interesting or informative, but if adjusted for penalty yards, it would be a better pure statistic about playmaking ability on no-penalty plays (no loss on your own penalty and/or no gain on a defenses penalty).

Bottom line guess:  avoiding penalties may be a really important part of this efficiency stat for those able to do so.  would be interesting to see it adjusted to remove penalties impacts.

johnlewing

November 1st, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^

Put more simply, if we had the stats:  penalty yards gained on scoring drives, penalty yards lost on scoring drives, net penalty yards on scoring drives, and avg. penalty yards per point gained....it would tell us how important avoiding penalties or gaining from penalties on defense is to scoring points.  Suspect it's more important than one might guess without seeing those stats.  Average penalty yards gained per point scored would highly correlate to the yards per point efficiency stat.

Not saying it would be more important than offensive playmaking ability, just that it might be more important than people would guess.