I don't think we're getting much information out of this year's Challenge: the bowl rosters are so different from the rosters during the season that there's not much predictive data available to the systems. It's starting to look like a dart throw.

Fortunately I ran a few of these back when bowls were still bowls. Here's the first.

A quick recap of the format: like the confidence-weighted version of Bowl Mania, each game gets a number from 1 to 39 depending on the predicted point spread (or efficiency difference in the case of FEI). The Vegas predictions were the consensus lines posted at Vegas Insiders on the Sunday before the bowls began.

 

New Orleans Bowl: Troy 50, North Texas 30

The Troy defense gets eight sacks and forces five turnovers as they finish off an 11-win season that included a win at LSU. Everyone gets this right.

W: FEI 38, Sagarin 28. Vegas 27, Massey 21, SP+ 20

 

Cure Bowl: Georgia State 27, Western Kentucky 17

Georgia State wins the rushing battle 147 to -2 (including -45 yards in sacks). Vegas had WKU as a six-point favorite and the computers generally concur.

L: SP+ 25, Vegas 24, Sagarin 18, FEI 15, Massey 14

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State 38, Oregon 28

Brett Rypien vs. Justin Herbert; Boise gets an early 24-0 lead and coasts (it was more one-sided than the score would indicate: half of Oregon's points came on fumble and interception returns for TDs in the last minute of the first half). They were a 7.5-point underdog, although FEI had Boise a heavy favorite.

Herbert had missed a chunk of the season, which Vegas knew but the computers did not. Also, Willie Taggart had left Oregon to take the FSU job a few days before I pulled the Vegas line.

W: FEI 29, SP+ 8, Massey 6

L: Vegas 33, Sagarin 15

 

New Mexico Bowl: Marshall 31, Colorado State 28

Marshall rips off three plays of 65+ yards, something Colorado State had struggled with during the season (I see at least four TD runs against them of 50+). Another upset per Vegas and most of the computers, although, curiously, FEI again had Marshall as a heavy favorite.

W: FEI 28, Massey 1

L: Vegas 21, SP+ 15, Sagarin 10

 

Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee 35, Arkansas State 30

The fourth of the first day's five games to be won by the underdog. ASU had more yards and more first downs (34-17) but had two drives stall inside the MTSU 10. MTSU also had a defensive TD.

MTSU had lost their QB for half the season and won four of five down the stretch after his return. That may explain why Vegas viewed them more favorably than most of the computers.

L: SP+ 35, FEI 30, Sagarin 24, Vegas 17, Massey 11

 

Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic 50, Akron 3

FAU was favored by 22.5.

W: Vegas, SP+, FEI all the maximum 39, Massey 37, Sagarin 36

 

Frisco Bowl: Louisiana Tech 51, SMU 10

AKA the “Sonny Dykes Bowl.” SMU coach Chad Morris accepted the Arkansas job on 12/11, one day after I pulled the Vegas lines, and most of the staff left with him, but the line didn't move much (maybe half a point?). Statistically the game was fairly close, except for six SMU turnovers, two of which were pick-sixes. Computers and Vegas all agreed on SMU in the 5-8 point range.

L: Sagarin 30, FEI 21, Vegas 20, SP+ 18, Massey 18

 

Gasparilla Bowl: Temple 28, Florida International 3

This is an odd one; Vegas and the scores-based systems had Temple by 7-9 points; the two “advanced” systems had it roughly a tossup. I'm not sure what to make of the result, either—FIU lost their quarterback on their fourth play from scrimmage and had no chance after that.

W: Sagarin 31, Vegas 30, Massey 30, FEI 11

L: SP+ 5

 

Bahamas Bowl: Ohio 41, UAB 6

No contest. Dorian Brown had 152 yards and 4 TDs on just twelve carries.

W: FEI 37, Sagarin 37, Vegas 36, Massey 35, SP+ 30

 

Potato Bowl: Wyoming 37, Central Michigan 14

Shane Morris's last college game. Also Josh Allen's last college game. Morris was 26 of 43 for 346 yards; Allen was 11 of 19 for 154.

Alas, Morris also threw four interceptions and fumbled twice.

It occurs to me here that this bowl season had a lot of games radically impacted by turnovers. I mean, most games are impacted by turnovers, but how often do you see a +8 turnover margin? And this is just three games after the SMU debacle. Is this a feature of bowl season generally, or just an unusual week?

W: Sagarin 13, SP+12, Vegas 2

L: FEI 7, Massey 7

 

Birmingham Bowl: South Florida 38, Texas Tech 34

Over 1100 yards gained, 55 first downs; USF comes back with three consecutive fourth-quarter TD drives. SP+ saved by the late score; the others had it as more or less a toss-up but SP+ had USF by 8.

W: SP+ 34, FEI 8, Vegas 7, Massey 2

L: Sagarin 3

 

Armed Forces Bowl: Army 42, San Diego State 35

Is this 1967 or 2017? The two teams combined for 77 points and 42 first downs but only 31 yards passing. SDSU's Rashaad Penny ran for 221 yards and four scores on just 14 carries; Army did not punt or attempt a field goal and held the ball for 46 minutes. Army won the game with a 15-play drive that used up almost all of the final six minutes, then ran a successful 2-point conversion to go up 36-35 (the game ended on a scoop and score on SDSU's final hail-Mary-lateral play).

L: Vegas 23, Sagarin 20, SP+ 19, Massey 13, FEI 3.

 

Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State 34, Toledo 0

Another underdog (+7.5) victory and this time it wasn't competitive; Toledo had scored almost 40 ppg in the regular season but the closest they came to threatening in this one was a second quarter punt from the ASU 39.

L: Vegas 34, Massey 33, Sagarin 27, FEI 24, SP+ 16

 

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State 33, Houston 27

Fresno gets its tenth win in Jeff Tedford's first year, following an 11-loss season in 2016. Both teams moved the ball between the twenties but struggled in the red zone; there were eight field goal attempts in the game, none longer than 40 yards.

Only Connelly gets this right; FEI had Houston a fairly heavy favorite.

W: SP+ 3

L: Sagarin 1, Vegas 6, Massey 9, FEI 27

 

Standings after one week:

• FEI...........190-127 .599
• Massey....132-105 .557
• SP+.........146-133 .523
• Sagarin....145-148 .495
• Vegas.......141-178 .442

I thought I came in without any expectations but I was definitely NOT expecting this. Still could be randomness at this point though.

 

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah 30, West Virginia 14

Another bowl win for Kyle Whittingham, this his eleventh in twelve tries.

This was the first bowl of the year seriously impacted by an opt-out: WVU's Justin Crawford decided to prepare for the draft (he wasn't drafted, it turns out). Maybe more significant was the loss of Will Grier to a broken finger in November. The Vegas line was adjusted accordingly but the computers didn't know about either, of course.

W: Vegas 29, SP+ 23, FEI 14, Sagarin 9

L: Massey 12

 

Quick Lane Bowl: Duke 36, Northern Illinois 14

NIU was 1 for 12 on third down conversions, 0 for 6 on fourth down. It's hard to win that way and they didn't.

W: Massey 25, Sagarin 25, Vegas 19

L: FEI 6, SP+ 21

 

Cactus Bowl: Kansas State 35, UCLA 17

Josh Rosen was out due to a concussion; his backup played well for a half but K-State took control in the second half in what was thought at the time to be Bill Snyder's last game (he changed his mind again and came back for one more year). Jedd Fisch coached UCLA.

W: Massey 27, FEI 19, Sagarin 14, Vegas 9, SP+ 7

 

Independence Bowl: Florida State 42, Southern Mississippi 17

The fourth P5 vs. G5 matchup, and the fourth time SP+ substantially overvalued the G5 team compared to the other systems. But while the others might be written off as quirky, even defended (Boise won their game after all), this one makes no sense. FSU was a 15.5-point favorite, Sagarin said 18, Massey said 22.5...but SP+ had So. Miss by a field goal. I can't think of any explanation other than a failure of the schedule-adjustment algorithm.

FSU was never threatened during the game, though they were threatened briefly a week prior when some Reddit internet detectives determined that the team was not in fact bowl eligible because their win over Delaware State couldn't be counted. It being in no one's financial interest to call off the game, the rule was conveniently reinterpreted.

W: Massey 39, Sagarin 39, Vegas 38, FEI 32

L: SP+ 24

 

Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa 27, Boston College 20

Wind chill of 12 in New York, icy turf; why can't the CFP hold some games there?

B.C. nearly doubled Iowa's yardage, A. J. Dillon had over 100 yards rushing by halftime, and Iowa won with scoring drives of zero yards on four plays (FG set up by an interception return) and 16 yards on four plays (TD set up by a long kickoff return). They've been Iowa for a long time.

W: Sagarin 22, SP+ 17, Vegas 13, FEI 10, Massey 8

 

Foster Farms Bowl: Purdue 38, Arizona 35

Vegas favored Arizona; every computer favored Purdue. The computers were right, Purdue put up 555 yards in the win.

W: Massey 23, FEI 17, SP+ 9, Sagarin 8

L: Vegas 15

 

Texas Bowl: Texas 33, Missouri 16

Missouri outgained Texas but turned the ball over four times and converted only 3 of 14 third downs.

2017 Texas was more Iowa than that year's Iowa was: #7 in dFEI, #104 in oFEI. So it's fitting that their punter was named bowl MVP. Also Iowa-like was their ability to generate turnovers in the passing game without necessarily getting pressure on the QB. Maybe that explains the big gap in how SP+ and FEI assessed this team.

W: FEI 36, Sagarin 26, Massey 22

L: SP+ 27, Vegas 11

 

Military Bowl: Navy 49, Virginia 7

Not as close a contest as the score would indicate. Virginia ran the opening kick back for a TD; Navy then outgained Virginia on the ground by 452 to 30. Their quarterbacks alone ran for 202 yards and seven touchdowns and they won 49-7 without completing a pass.

FEI got this very right. I didn't pay any attention to it at the time but there was a 46-point swing between FEI and SP+ in the two games involving military academies. Hold that thought....

W: FEI 26, Sagarin 6, Vegas 1

L: SP+ 4, Massey 4

 

Camping World Bowl: Oklahoma State 30, Virginia Tech 21

VT gained 158 yards on their first two drives, unfortunately the second drive only reached the one and ended with a lost fumble. They also failed on three fourth down attempts and threw a pick. OSU didn't turn the ball over, Mason Rudolph hit a couple of deep balls and that was more than enough, despite being badly outgained on the ground (and slightly outgained overall for that matter).

W; SP+ 29, Vegas 22, FEI 20, Massey 5, Sagarin 4

 

Alamo Bowl: TCU 39, Stanford 37

Stanford took a 21-3 first half lead; TCU came back and the two teams traded haymakers down the stretch (long Bryce Love run, even longer Jalen Reagor reception, Desmon White punt return) until TCU finally won it on a field goal with three minutes left.

SP+ making a bit of a comeback these last two games.

W: SP+ 26, Massey 19, Vegas 8, Sagarin 7

L: FEI 2

 

Holiday Bowl: Michigan State 42, Washington State 17

Reporter: “I'm still unclear on whether Luke Falk was injured.”

Leach: “You will remain unclear. Next question.”

Injured or not, he didn't play, Grinch couldn't steal D'Antonio's Christmas, and the game wasn't a contest.

W: Massey 15, SP+ 1

L: Vegas 12, FEI 9, Sagarin 2

 

Belk Bowl: Wake Forest 55, Texas A&M 52

107 points, 1260 yards, 63 first downs, and they had time for five turnovers and eleven punts???

There were 37 possessions in this game. That's a lot of opportunities for commercial breaks and it took over four hours to get them all in.

W: FEI 33, SP+ 31, Massey 24, Sagarin 19, Vegas 14

 

Sun Bowl: North Carolina State 52, Arizona State 31

Compared to the Belk Bowl this was a defensive struggle as both teams were held under 500 yards. On second thought that's probably just a tempo thing as there were 50 fewer plays run in this one.

W: Massey 34, SP+ 32, Vegas 25, Sagarin 21, FEI 13

 

Music City Bowl: Northwestern 24, Kentucky 23

How was this game close? Northwestern outrushed Kentucky 333 to 65, didn't turn the ball over and had a defensive TD. But they also turned the ball over on downs four times (!) and missed a field goal. In the end it took a failed two-point conversion in the final minute to decide it.

The computers dodged a bullet here; they all had Northwestern a double-digit favorite.

W: Massey 38, Sagarin 38, SP+ 37, FEI 35, Vegas 32

 

Arizona Bowl: New Mexico State 26, Utah State 20 (OT)

New Mexico State's first bowl in 57 years. Plenty of yards but not many points as the two teams combined to go 6 for 40 on third down conversions.

The scores-based systems had USU as a 10-12 point favorite; Vegas and the advanced metrics had it in the 2-4 point range.

L: Sagarin 34, Massey 31, Vegas 18, FEI 12, SP+ 11

 

Standings before the main event:

• FEI..........445-156 .740
• Massey....411-152 .730
• Sagarin....383-184 .675
• SP+.........358-220 .619
• Vegas......351-234 .600

 

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State 24, USC 7

Leave it to Ohio to provide us our first high-profile opt-out as Denzel Ward chose to prepare for the draft. USC had more yards and almost twice as many first downs but Sam Darnold threw a pick six and lost two fumbles and USC couldn't move the ball on the ground.

L: SP+ 38, Massey 36, Sagarin 35, Vegas 31, FEI 25

 

Tax Slayer Bowl: Mississippi State 31, Louisville 27

MSU came in without their starting QB and this time we don't have to wonder if he was really hurt, but backup freshman Keytaon Thompson held his own against Lamar Jackson, who had a long TD run but also threw four picks and was sacked six times.

W: Sagarin 5, FEI 4

L: Vegas 26, SP+ 13, Massey 10

 

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State 21, Memphis 20

With David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard on their rosters you'd think these teams could have run the ball, but they didn't (Henderson was injured and Pollard was only used on kickoffs, to be fair).Allen Lazard caught ten passes, including a tipped ball at the back of the endzone for the game winner.

Big swing on what was essentially a coin flip here, as SP+ once again went heavily for the G5 team.

W: Massey 20, Sagarin 16, FEI 16

L: SP+ 28, Vegas 16

 

Fiesta Bowl: Penn State 35, Washington 28

Washington had given up 92 yards per game on the ground during the season; Saquon Barkley got that on one carry. PSU got up 28-7 in the first half and was able to shorten the game with some long drives...although some of those long drives came up empty: a 13-play 6-minute drive that ended in a missed FG, another 13-play 6-minute drive that ended in an interception.

The scores-based systems were heavily on PSU; the others called it a tossup.

W: Massey 28, Sagarin 17, Vegas 4

L: SP+ 2, FEI 1

 

Orange Bowl: Wisconsin 34, Miami 24

An odd game: Miami outrushed Wisconsin, but couldn't do it on third and short (they were 2 of 10 on third downs). Wisconsin held the ball for more than 40 minutes but did most of it through the air. Malik Frasier threw three interceptions, Alex Hornibrook was great, Wisconsin won. That's 7-0 for the B1G so far.

Wisconsin was a 7-9 point favorite in all systems (a bit less in FEI maybe). Good calls.

W: SP+ 33, Sagarin 33, Massey 32, Vegas 28, FEI 22

 

Outback Bowl: South Carolina 26, Michigan 19

Let's not dwell.

L: SP+ 36, Vegas 35, Massey 32, FEI 31, Sagarin 29

 

Peach Bowl: UCF 34, Auburn 27

Once again SP+ is alone on the G5 team but this time it works out. In the G5/P5 matchups, and ignoring the service-academy game (for reasons we'll get to later, SP+ can't handle true option football well), SP+ averaged 36 confidence-points higher on the G5 team than FEI. That's half the board; that's a lot.

W: SP+ 6

L: Vegas 37, Sagarin 32, Massey 26, FEI 18

 

Citrus Bowl: Notre Dame 21, LSU 17

LSU went for fourth and goal at the one in the second quarter...and jumped. They then missed the short field goal. Facing the same situation with two minutes to play in a 14-14 game, Orgeron kicked the field goal. It then took ND three plays to drive 73 yards and win a game that LSU dominated statistically.

W: FEI 34, Sagarin 23, Massey 16, SP+ 10

L: Vegas 10

 

Rose Bowl: Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48 (2OT)

Don't know what to say about this; I'm sure you remember it well. Everyone had Georgia by one or two points, and so it was.

W: SP+ 14, Sagarin 11, FEI 5, Vegas 3, Massey 3

 

Sugar Bowl: Alabama 24, Clemson 6

Odd difference of computer opinion here, as FEI and Massey had Clemson by a touchdown or so and the others had Alabama by 2-4. Massey and Sagarin aren't usually that far apart; I'm guessing it had to do with Massey still including data on the prior season while Sagarin purges it once “the graph is well connected.” Clemson's prior season was very very good after all.

W: SP+ 22, Sagarin 12, Vegas 5

L: FEI 23, Massey 17

 

Final Standings:

• FEI..........551-229 .706
• Massey....543-237 .696
• Sagarin....535-245 .686
• SP+.........481-299 .617
• Vegas......422-358 .541

That's impressive.

I used the moneyline odds to work up an estimate of the standard deviation in the pool and it was just about 60 points. So there's one sigma between the top three and Connelly, and another sigma down to Vegas. Suggestive, maybe, certainly not convincing of anything on its own. That didn't stop me from drawing some tentative conclusions:

(1) The computers are much better at this than I ever would have guessed. Vegas has all their data, has their results, has all sorts of potentially useful news on injuries and coaching changes and whatnot. But somehow the computers are able to hold their own.

And now a brief aside: Massey has a page on his website with a compilation of about 100 or so ranking systems he's found posted on the internet. His website also has a useful feature where on any page you can click on one of the columns and it not only sorts the page on that column but also, in the bottom row, shows the correlation coefficient of every other column to the one you've selected.

So on the compilation page you could (for some reason the last row is no longer there on this page, alas) sort on a consensus of all ranking systems and see how correlated each one was to its brethren.

The most uncorrelated system was some random nut who didn't believe in schedule adjustments and had Toledo as a top five team. That wasn't serious.

The most uncorrelated serious system was SP+, and that continued to be true every year I was able to check it.

Anyway, seeing that pushed me towards recognizing

(2) the + in SP+ was too small. G5 teams are overrated compared to everyone else. It didn't hurt him too badly in the contest and you could argue that he's right and everyone else is wrong (Directional Florida!!!), but the burden of proof is on the outlier and he finished last.

I think Connelly also saw this, and he seems to have fixed it in later years.

But the decisive swings to me were the Texas and Navy games.

(3) SP struggles to evaluate teams with styles too far outside NFL norms. Navy? It's never seen a triple option. Texas? The only demonstrated way to generate turnovers is to pressure the quarterback, other turnovers are just noise.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, he's only down one sigma to the others after all. Need more data.

Except for point #1. Maybe the computers being that much better this year was a matter of luck, but I'm convinced they aren't a lot worse.