Best:  Music To My Ears

I’ve been some iteration of this diary for years now; depending on how much credit you want to give me for the 2010 (!) 38-28 loss to Iowa recap as told through the always-topical “Bruce Willis Movie Posters” I’ve been at this for over a decade.  And for those of you who have been paying attention/alive during that period…it’s not been a great era for Michigan football.  They’ve beaten OSU exactly once over that span in a game that turned on probably the worst OSU team missing a deep ball to win it.  They’ve won 2 bowl games, one in which they didn’t put up 200 yards of total offense and the other where they rag dolled a Florida team that went 2-4 against ranked teams on the year.  They canned Rich Rod after the 2010 season because his defenses were consistently awful and replaced him with Brady Hoke, whose offenses kept getting worse the farther he got away from Rich Rod’s offensive recruiting.  Jim Harbaugh was brought in with much fanfare and the results have been deserving of much less fanfare, generally winning the games he should and never winning the ones they shouldn’t.  All the while I’ve tried to keep an even keel in these write-ups, enjoying the journey and trying to never get too emotionally invested in a game that, as has been said numerous times, is played by college students trying to hold onto an oblong ball while being with about half a ton of force over 100 times a games.  It’s cliche to say but the unpredictable, poetic brutality of football is why it’s so enchanting and why I try hard to capture these feelings (and I hope those shared by others) watching it these 12-ish week it’s played by Michigan every year. 

So when I’m writing these diaries it’s typically late at night on Sunday, when I’ve got some free time and can focus without the distractions of family, house needs, and work.  And I’m using doing so with music playing in my headphones, sometimes just for background noise but other times because I’ve heard a song somewhere or am trying to capture some sentiment about how I want to convey a particular sentiment.  Now, written out this sounds incredibly pretentious but in reality it’s more organic, though I’d be lying if I didn’t say the playlists at times sounded like a break-up mixtape.  But honestly, going back you can track the state of Michigan football pretty well by some of these songs:

• Michigander – Fears (1/2/2018)
• Andrew Belle – Drought (11/25/2018)
• Jr Jr – Same Dark Place (11/25/2018)
• Kris Angelis – Heartbreak is Contagious (10/19/2019)
• Dan Mangan + Blacksmith – Mouthpiece (1/2/2020)

I’ll save you 2020’s rotation-heavy except that songs with titles like “Ditchdigger” and a song called “Wolverine” which features this apropos refrain:

I am the wolverine
Get close and show my teeth
And no love for my own
I walk my path alone
And I am the submarine
The deep hunter of the sea
And I sink enemies
Making widows in the open ocean

And so it’s been hard to shake the sense that this year might be different than the past decade.  Now, I’m still not ready to believe Michigan is competing for a national title or even a conference title given that OSU is still a ball of rabid possums with rusty, tetanus-laced knives attached to their tails, but outside of a half of football against Rutgers the Wolverines have been sandblasting their opponents to a degree we really haven’t seen under Harbaugh with any consistency.  I know people will talk about 2016 and 2018, and I’ll contend that 2016 is probably the most talented squad he had at UM but ended with a thud while 2018 started with a loss to ND and thus always had that pall of a loss to a rival hanging over it.  But while this year remains quite young, I’ve got renewed confidence that they’ll surprise me in ways that won’t lead me to inexplicably go emo some Saturday in fall. 

Michigan came into this game the favorite by any relevant analytic save for fan confidence, which viewed this matchup as some Jigsaw-from-Saw-level, Rube-Goldberg-ian device to break Wolverine fans’ hearts.  Wisconsin had beaten UM the last two times the teams squared off by a combined score of 84-32, including the largest margin-of-victory in the series for the Badgers last year.  And in all honesty, that cumulative score probably undersells the one-sidedness of those games; Michigan trailed 35-0 and 28-0 before getting on the scoreboard.  Though Wisconsin had two losses already, both had been (relatively) close affairs with then-unbeaten Notre Dame and PSU, two top-12 teams that they had actually out-gained yardage-wise but had been done in by turnovers and special teams blunders.  And while Graham Mertz, Wisconsin’s highest-rated QB recruit in school history, came into the game leading the country in turnovers, Wisconsin QBs have a tendency for turning into a mix of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady whenever Michigan rolls into town.  So it was not without reason for fans to worry that this would be the day Wisconsin turned it around, that a run of bad luck would break for the Badgers and Michigan would be the karmic recipient.

And yet, outside of a 30-ish second blip at the end of the first half that impending sense of doom never really manifested itself on the field.   Wisconsin’s running game, as it has all year against P5 defenses, struggled to get anything going, finishing the game with 43 yards on 32 carries.  Even if you throw out the 34 yards the Badgers lost on the 6(!) sacks they allowed in this game we’re still talking about under 3 ypc for the game, with a long of 13.  And speaking of Mertz, he had approximately 3 good throws all day (including 2 on that half-ending TD drive) but was otherwise as inconsistent as advertised, at times seemingly seeing ghosts as Michigan’s defensive line compressed the pocket on nearly every play.  And the barrage came from all directions; as noted those 6 sacks came from 6 different players, with David Ojabo leading the pack with a career-high 2.5 and a forced fumble thrown in as well.  But push also consistently came from inside, with Chris Hinton and Mike Morris generating 1.5 sacks along with 3 solo tackles.  Aiden Hutchinson, despite being kept relatively quiet on the box score (3 tackles, half a TFL), was his usual disruptive self, repeatedly breaking up Mertz’s progression as he screamed around the corner even when being almost comically held.  But the most emphatic declaration that this wasn’t going to be a day of redemption for the Badgers came when Daxton Hill, perhaps aggrieved about being beat over the top by Mertz for UW’s first-half TD, Ancient One’d Mertz’s soul from his body with a thunderous sack that knocked the signal caller out for the rest of the game.  Wisconsin tacked on a late scoring drive to just hump over 200 yards of total offense, but even with that Michigan held the Badgers to their lowest yardage performance (210 yards) since 2019. 

As for UM’s offense, they nearly doubled the total rushing yardage the Badgers had given up all year (112 yards to 69 yards) while also throwing for over 250 yards at 60% completion percentage and 3 TDs, by far the best performance any team has had against Wisconsin in the air.  So on one hand, empirically this was a great performance against maybe the best non-Alabama/Georgia defense in the country.  On the other hand … it had it’s moments.  Michigan’s long run on the day was a mere 8 yards, with Haskins and Corum never getting into much of a rhythm between the tackles or breaking anything at the edges.  Obviously a decent amount of credit for that should go the Wisconsin’s front 7, especially their linebackers who flew around all day, but still it’s been two straight games where defenses designed to slow down UM’s rushing attack have been pretty successful in that endeavor.  As for the aerial component of the game, Cade McNamara and his receivers struggled to connect in the first quarter as he went 5/10 for 32 yards before completing a 4th-down pass to Roman Wilson that was followed by a 34-yard flea flicker to Cornelius Johnson for a TD.  While some of those incompletions could be placed at the feet of his receivers, others felt like a continuation of the issues he had against Rutgers, short-arming some balls and throwing behind his receivers.   Things improved from there on and McNamara finished the game with 2 TDs and a healthy 7 ypa while ceding some plays to JJ McCarthy, who flashed his athleticism on a couple of QB runs (including a Bush Push TD on 4th down) as well as his now-customary bomb to Daylen Baldwin.

Strip the names of the jerseys and a 38-17 final score makes complete sense given the yardage, turnover, and general talent disparity on display in this game.  Wisconsin felt like some of those late-Dantonio MSU teams, where the defense played at a championship level for as long as it could until the offense’s ineptitude finally put them so far behind the eight-ball that they crumbled.  Wisconsin is probably better than their current 1-3 record; they’ve played 3 top-20 SP+ teams (and 2 in the top 10) and other than Iowa and maybe Nebraska probably won’t see another one in the top-30 for the rest of the regular season.  But this was a game that Michigan could have allowed to be far more interesting than it needed to be Saturday afternoon, and the fact they weathered Wisconsin’s good fortune and squashed them in the second half is a testament to perseverance and outward confidence that hadn’t been on display in recent years.  Hopefully it’s just one of many such weekends, as I really want to give the Spotify algorithm something more optimistic to use going forward.

  

Best:  Keeping the Train Running on Time

If you want perhaps the starkest difference between this year and 2020, look no further than the fact that Michigan has never trailed this year; only BYU, Alabama, and Georgia can claim that distinction as well.

 

I chronicled this earlier, but in 2020 Michigan had a ton of trouble getting the lead:

I don’t want to dwell on 2020 too much, but I also want to put in perspective just how bad the year went for Michigan on both sides of the ball.  On defense, 2020 featured these lowlights:

1. Michigan allowed every team to score first in all 6 games, and each time it was a TD.
2. They also allowed teams to score quickly – 3 teams scored on their first possession, 2 on their second, and 1 on their third possession (Rutgers).

and then barely held onto it:

1. Discounting the Minnesota game in which Michigan led for good midway through the first quarter, the Wolverines didn’t lead in a game until the start of the 4th quarter against Rutgers (!), and then never again.  So in a span of 5 games Michigan’s offense secured the lead for about 12 minutes of gametime.

Those are absurdly bad stats for any level of football, let alone a P5 program with, ostensibly, a talent advantage against most of their competition.  But that near-constant deficit led to Michigan having to throw the ball an absurd amount (around 65% of their offensive playcalls were passes) to try to keep pace, which led to an abandonment of the running offense and a marked increase in turnovers and general dysfunction offensively.  One is free to complain about it as much as one wants, but Michigan’s offense isn’t designed to get off schedule too often so Michigan’s ability this year to keep teams off the scoreboard early while getting at least one score in the first quarter has been a godsend for them.  It’s allowed Michigan to lean so heavily on their rushing attack, which in turn has taken some pressure off McNamara and the receivers so that they’ve been comfortable taking deep shots as safeties cheat up.  Michigan didn’t need to abandon their running game even as it trudged along for most of the afternoon because they always had the lead, and toward the middle of the 3rd quarter you could visibly see Wisconsin’s defense realize that as well.

And this constant advantage on the scoreboard undoubtedly has taken some pressure off the defense as well.  Macdonald clearly wants to mess with offenses and bring pressure from unexpected directions, and when the offense is put in situations where their playbook is crunched due to the score that plays right into his hands.  Wisconsin’s offensive line, particularly their tackles, isn’t up to the usual Badger standards, but Michigan’s 6 sacks are more than half of what Wisconsin has given up all year and even when they didn’t get home the looming threat of pressure drove errant passes and skittering feet by the Badger QBs even when the pocket held up.   

Now, there will undoubtedly be a time this year when Michigan trails, likely in some high-leverage situation on the road.  It remains to be seen how they’ll respond, if they’ll be able to move the ball against an engaged defense.  My guess is the answer will be in the vicinity of “okay, not great”, but right now Michigan’s ability to keep games on their terms has been immeasurably valuable at letting this still-maturing team handle the transition costs from the roster and staff turnover this offseason with aplomb.

 

Best:  YaMo Be There On Defense

I mentioned it up top but Michigan’s defense played exceptionally well in this game, broken UW QB be damned.  Graham Mertz came into the game a broken QB but save for two NFL-quality throws that account for nearly half of his total yardage (54 yards) to end the half Michigan snuffed out anything resembling a passing game by the Badgers.  And it started early – on Wisconsin’s first drive they tried to run a little screen to TE running across the line  that in previous iterations of this game would have gone for a long score.  Instead, Mazi Smith batted it down and Wisconsin was off the field.  That happened a lot in this game, where Michigan’s defensive line so dominated Wisconsin’s that the Badgers couldn’t string together the type of chunk plays that let them grind defenses down.  On the day Wisconsin had exactly 2 drives that were longer than 4 plays, one being a 15-play, 78-yard FG drive that was just a series of short runs and dump-offs that humped its way from the Wisconsin 6 to the UM 16, and the other a 9-play, 24  yard (!!) punt drive that was as exciting in reality as it reads on paper.  Otherwise, Wisconsin’s drives averaged 3 plays for 9 yards, and that includes the aforementioned late-half TD drive and a 43-yard TD drive in the waning minute of the game.  And unlike against PSU where Wisconsin killed themselves with penalties, Michigan was responsible for a lot of these stalled drives as the Badgers only had a single illegal formation penalty all day.

I have been a bit critical of people blaming all of UM’s defensive struggles last year on Don Brown, but Macdonald’s changes to the defense this year shouldn’t be overlooked.  While the secondary hasn’t faced a truly elite passing offense yet they’ve still been markedly better in coverage than last year, giving up a long of 45 yards deep into the WMU game, a 36-yarder on UW’s first TD drive, and otherwise not giving up a pass longer than 29 yards all year.  They’ve only generated 2 picks all year (with one in this game) but are also averaging 5 PBUs a game.  At some point you have to assume some of these deflections will turn into more picks, especially if Dax Hill continues his penchant for taking any completion on him personally.

And the defensive line has been a revelation compared to last year, where UM struggled to stop anyone on the ground.  A concern coming into the year was the depth and flexibility outside of Hutchinson, especially in a defense that wanted to play multiple formations.  And yet, 5 games into the year Mazi Smith, Chris Hinton, and especially Mike Morris have held up pretty well while also generating a decent amount of pressure.  In this game Wisconsin’s best linemen were their guards and center, yet Michigan’s defensive line held their ground and rarely allowed the Badgers to get to the linebackers to set up longer runs.  And because of this, Hutchinson and Ojabo were able to keep the edges on runs while also having opportunities to abuse the tackles.  And Josh Ross’s return to the lineup clearly helped shore up some of the yardage leak we saw last weekend, as few tackles were broken if the play got to the second level.

Again, it’s still relatively early and this defense will face it’s first true “legit” offense next week against Nebraska, who come into the game with the nation’s #34 offense per SP+ and #11 in total yardage.  They struggled somewhat last weekend against a mobile QB in Noah Vedral and Martinize is going to be far more elusive, so we’ll see how they adjust.  But a lot of what UM is doing defensively this year isn’t luck or opponent-variant; they’re just playing sound scheme and being aggressive when necessary, which is what was honestly missing toward the end of last year. 

Worst:  No Need For Drama

As noted earlier, Cade started this game a bit rough but rounded into shape as the game progressed.  I thought he looked a bit limited on one of his scrambles in this game; he’s not a speed demon by any means but he’s got enough speed to usually get the edge for a first down.  But otherwise he executed the offense well and saved UM when the pocket collapsed; his ability to avoid UW’s pressure on a 3rd-down pressed against their own endzone and dumping it off to Corum (who made a great play to get the first) was key in flipping the field, and he also kept plays alive a couple of other times to give his receivers a chance to get open downfield.  And his downfield throws continued to be solid, including a nice throw to Wilson that set up the winning score in the 3rd quarter while under pressure.  McCarthy came in and showed the running aspect he brings to the offense but there should be no debate that McNamara is the starter until he (a) craters over multiple games or (b) gets hurt.  Cade just led UM into a very hostile road environment and engineered them to a great offensive performance, and that shouldn’t be overlooked. 

I also, in general, disagree with the general sentiment that all passing issues begin and end with the QB.  During the Patterson years I often argued that a decent chunk of the issues the passing game had weren’t because of Shea’s inconsistency but at least in part due to the WRs not running the correct routes and dropping catchable balls.  The Army game stood out from that era where guys were dropping balls left and right and the refrain was “Patterson threw it wrong” and I couldn’t understand that logic.  If WRs are supposed to be some of the best athletes on the field, they should find a way to beat a corner they’ve got 20 pounds and 3 inches on most of the time.  The QB has to do so much before and during a play that sometimes he might leave a ball a little short or not right on the money, and it’s on the WR to run his route correctly and hold onto balls thrown close to him.  Yes, sometimes defenders are making it hard for the receiver to pull in the ball; overcoming that is part of the job for a WR, just like it is on the QB to deal with linebackers and defensive ends.  And similarly, sometimes WR just run bad routes, and so a ball that looks a step behind or ahead of them is due to that poor play and not the QB.  Like, Daylen Baldwin absolutely overran a route in this game that the announcers noted would have been a first down had he just “sat down”, but instead it looked like McNamara threw the ball behind him.  I’ve long contended that UM needs to have a dedicated WR coach and while the WRs have gotten better as the year’s gone on, it remains an issue.

Best:  Staying Healthy

There were a lot of reasons why last year’s game against Wisconsin looked different than this year’s version, but a major one was that Michigan came into the game largely healthy.  Outside of Ronnie Bell, they have their core starting lineup in place and have been so for most of the year.  By comparison, last year UM came into that game down both of their starting  offensive tackles as well Paye and Hutchinson, then lost I believe Hawkins and/or McGrone during the game.  I’ve seen it said elsewhere that being healthy is a skill and it’s true; most college teams don’t have the depth to plug into multiple missing starters and function without a drop off, and in a year where UM is already dealing with some transition costs having a lot of their best, experienced players available has been a godsend.  Hopefully that continues.

 

Bad:  Poochie

If there was one bit of game theory that looked worse in hindsight than maybe in the moment it was the decision to pop up the kickoff toward the end of the first half.  Michigan had just marched down the field to put themselves up 10 again and with only about 27 seconds to go Wisconsin was probably content to head into the locker room without really trying to move the ball downfield, especially knowing they’d get the ball to start the second half.  But UM took a bit of a gamble by popping the kick off and, at least initially, generating a fumble out of an up-man bumbling the recovery.  But once that didn’t happen UW ground out a 9-yard run and were basically at midfield.  Two throws later UW scored and the fanbase absolutely fell into the usual pit of despair that seemingly follows anything positive happening for the opponent.  Had UM just booted the ball as they had all game into the endzone I think UW would have been content to run the ball twice and run out the clock.  Obviously it’s a bit of a gamble with the potential for another cheap possession to end the half and a show confidence in your defense/absolute unmitigated contempt for the UW offense, but in that circumstance UW needed a break like that to get anything going and I’m not sure the trade-off was worth it.  Jay Harbaugh has been a really good special teams coach and I don’t blame him for taking the risk, but just didn’t pay off.

 

Good:  Swagger

I generally think outward displays of “swagger” is an overrated aspect of a football program; Miami’s (YTM) entire brand is “swag” with their turnover chain and  pathological desire to “light guys up” with big plays and all it’s accomplished these past couple of years are a plethora of missed tackles and MSU beating your by 21 at home.  But the best version of Jim Harbaugh and his Michigan teams have always been the ones with a healthy dose of confidence.  It doesn’t necessarily mean trolling a rival fanbase that jumps around to a song released well before virtually any student in that stadium was born (though that’s a plus), but it does mean taking calculated risks and trusting that your team will make it all work.  In this game UM struggled on 3rd down (only going 6/19) but were 4/5 on 4th downs, including in situations around midfield where other coaches (including Harbaugh in the past) may have taken a more conservative approach.  But instead, he took the smart plays where they should be and it paid off with a team that was able to keep the ball moving and clearly demoralize the UW defense as the game progressed.

 

Next Week:  Huskers

UM has another tough road test with a night game against the Huskers before the bye week.  Nebraska continues to be error-prone but are better than their 2-3 record would say; they probably should have won against MSU two weeks ago and played Oklahoma to a draw for most of their game.  They also just ran for over 400 yards against Northwestern, which may have the worst defense in P5 but still shouldn’t have been that bad.  Scott Frost will having the Cornhuskers amped for a chance at a big win, and it’ll be on UM to respond.  I do think they’ll find running lanes to be a bit easier than against Wisconsin and Rutgers, plus the passing game will likely have some more options downfield.  It’ll be tighter than you’d hope but I think UM pulls it out.