Worst: This is What We All Wanted?

Up front - this one section is going to delve a bit into COVID-19. Feel free to skip.

Honestly, I've been pretty ambivalent about the college football season happening in 2020. Once it became clear that a full-blown pandemic was sweeping across the globe and poised to linger in the United States, the notion of trying to piece together something resembling a football season felt immensely illogical. It was never a question about "if" it was possible - there was a will and, if you weren't too worried about the impact of thousands of potential infections on college students, a way. It was basically the same (cynical) logic applied to students returning to campus - it's been a staple of people's lives for decades and those with money on the line didn't want to slow that gravy train. Fast forward a couple of months and you've got nearly-empty stadiums dotted with human heads adorned with masks and Fathead cut-outs cheering on teams missing key players because a highly-communicable disease...communicated itself to them. And sometimes they didn't even get that far, cancelling games not because there was some great epiphany about the ludicrousness of trudging through a season at the same time daily positive tests counts eclipsed 100k and about 1,000 people died as games were played, but because teams are contractually obligated to cancel games as "punishment" for athletes testing positive for a disease that, again, seems to be lingering over this country like a damn fart cloud.

But beyond the banality of it all is the fact that the conference pivoted so many times you assumed they must have travelled a half-dozen times. First the season was delayed, then cancelled, then re-opened and delayed, then finally played, and during those tumultuous months players across the conference had to make decisions regarding their future health and financial well-being. Michigan was hit with a number of players potentially sitting out the year, including Jalen Mayfield, Nico Collins, and Ambry Thomas, the latter only a year removed from a bout with colitis, a condition whose treatment can weaken one's immune system and make you more succeptible to COVID-19. While Mayfield ultimately decided to return, both Collins and Thomas decided to remain opted out, major blows considering both were some of the most talented players on their side of the ball in the conference, if not nationally.

Fast forward to this game and two of the glaring weaknesses Michigan had, namely their lack of two good corners and a legitimate #1 receiver, were in full view. On the defensive side, Gemon Green gave up the first TD to White but otherwise, in my opinion, continued his solid play from last week as Jayden Reed had only 1 non-catch for not-18 yards. Not stellar by any means (his PI call came during that period in the 2nd quarter when Michigan was getting called for everything and it felt dubious). But the other corner spot, whether it be Vincent Grey or Jalen Perry, was eviscerated by freshman Ricky White, who repeatedly beat his coverage deep for huge gains on lobs by Rocky Lombardi. Some of the passes were on-point throws and credit should go to Lombardi for them, but others were absolutely ducks that better corners would have picked off. That was the thing watching this game - it was like a slow-motion car wreck in which one team just didn't seem to have any idea how to defend some rather unimpressive playcalling. I know there are personnel limitations on this team but Michigan's defense consistently looked out of sorts throughout this game to a degree I really haven't seen in some time. People will point to the OSU game last year but that was a game where Ohio State put players in positions to succeed despite Michigan having a coherent-enough gameplan they tried to execute. This game was more inexplicable, like daylight savings came early and the team seemingly overslept and groggily mucked through the game for 4 quarters. A week after flying around and generally looking like your standard-issue Don Brown team with some question marks at tackle and corner, the defense looked lost and ill-prepared, a damning indictment for a season with only 8 games and extra weeks to prepare. I recognize that Minnesota is probably worse than we all expected, but it's still a pretty good offense that Michigan largely bottled up for 4 quarters, yet MSU's absolutely-predictable offense stymied them. Michigan failed to collect a sack after picking up 5 last week, and only had 2 TFLs a week after grinding Minnesota down with 9. MSU had pockets of success running the ball but this was a Rocky Lombradi-led passing attack that was allowed to sit in the pocket (admittedly at times with heavy protection) and throw to whomever he wanted.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Milton had the type of stat line (a) was absolutely not how they drew it up, and (b) probably should have resembled Lombardi's day. Milton threw the ball 52(!) times, completing 62% (!!) for 5.8 ypa(!!!), with no TDs or picks. On the one hand, Milton made some easy throws and kept the offense moving despite being put in some bad spots (7/17 on 3rd down despite an average distance of 9 yards), and led the team on the ground with 59 yards. On the other hand, throwing the ball 52 times for under 6 ypa meant he rarely tested MSU's corners downfield and most of his rushing came on him bugging out of pockets or being forced to run because of MSU's pressure; I didn't rewatch the game but I only remember one or two designed runs. I have high hopes for Giles Jackson, Roman Wilson, and AJ Henning going forward, but this offense absolutely lacks a long downfield threat and it shows. And without that real threat to stretch defenses, MSU was able to commit a ton of defenders closer to the LOS and smother the rushing attack while also constricting passing lanes. In fact, Milton got lucky a couple of times that balls weren't picked off as he threw just outside the grasp of a LB he clearly didn't see (in the case of Simmons on one completion) or into double coverage. MSU's defense isn't like it used to be but they still have P5 players on it, and when a team only has to worry about slants and screens to RBs they can shut those down. Collins would have provided that deep threat to loosen them up.

All that said, in no way are these absences excusing a loss like this. MSU out-executed Michigan and just played better; unlike recent MSU wins in this series they deserved to win based on their performance in this game. Still, Michigan is the more talented team and should have been able to overcome these losses against a team with a new coaching staff and limited practice time. I know I'll be in the minority here so whatever, but I really wasn't as impressed by MSU's gameplan on either side of the ball as much as I was dismayed by Michigan simply not executing the way they have both toward the end of last year as well as against Minnesota. I'm sure the UFR will show some wrinkles I didn't see, but Michigan's failure to get to Lombardi or keep up with MSU's perfectly average WRs wasn't because MSU pulled out a bag of tricks or showed formations that should have surprised the staff or players. Once it was clear that MSU wasn't going to allow a ton of inside runs, it fell on Michigan's offensive staff to go back to the outside runs, jet sweeps, etc. that were working and stop, for example, putting Haskins in the wildcat near the goal line and give away the game to the defense. From a physical standpoint Michigan's secondary should have been able to keep up with Ricky White, yet technique breakdowns led to numerous long completions.

This season was always going to be strange; I doubt we'll see the majority of teams in the conference even play their full truncated season of games, and those that do will feature a fair number of players sitting out due to positive infections or the fear of contracting the disease. But one of the few consistent thru-lines is that all but the elite teams are wildly inconsistent week-to-week. Michigan looked like a world-beater last week while MSU looked to be losing the talent battle to Rutgers; this week it's Michigan that looked lost and ill-prepared while MSU played like a team that could at least give any non-OSU team trouble. Next week Michigan could go to Indiana and run the Hoosiers off the field while MSU gets lost in the cornfields against Iowa. We really don't know, and it's why this season has always felt so surreal and irrelevant. At least MSU did Michigan the solid of making this irrelevance clear 2 games in.

Worst: Caring is Overrated

This is a small point but I wanted to make it early on because I think it informs the rest of this diary - I despise the notion that players "care" more about games than others. I've talked about it before and, well, nothing's changed in my view after this game. That's always been the constant refrain in this series; whichever team wins tends to get the reflexive "they just wanted it more" platitudes based mostly on the final score. MSU played better than Michigan and should be commended for that, but Michigan didn't suddenly lose their interest in beating MSU after two straight years of smashing them into a fine paste. Similarly, the assumption that MSU suddenly found a new gear to motivate them against Michigan after Mark "the chip on my shoulder has a chip on its shoulder" Dantonio was replaced with Tucker is crazy. Reducing a complex game of football into a single factor treats the losing team as lacking in some moral character and creates some illogical conclusions such as "this 5th-year senior decided to mail in his final game against MSU".

Now, that doesn't mean teams can't come out "flat" emotionally in the sense that early mistakes or bad calls can snowball on a group of people who are under stress. Look no further than last year's game against Notre Dame, where Michigan hamblasted a top-10 Notre Dame team 45-14, picking up 437 yards (including 303 on the ground) versus 180 for the Golden Domers. That's a huge rivalry game for both teams and, given the fact the teams won't play each other until my 4-year-old is in college, had sufficient bragging rights and "stakes" in play. And yet, Michigan absolutely dominated the first half of that game and Notre Dame always seemed a step slow and "disinterested" throughout, to the point that some wondered if perhaps they had shut out Brian Kelly a bit. Well, Notre Dame hasn't lost since and just got a home game against Clemson without their Heisman-trophy candidate and likely top-5 pick QB because of a positive COVID-19 test that was a day too late.

Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way, and when it doesn't go your way against a rival it stings doubly. MSU played well enough to win this game and they did, and that's enough without analyzing the psyche of college players. The gameplans weren't great (and I'll get into why next) and the breakdowns didn't help, but people trying to read into the posture or body language of players as some proxy for the willpower of the coaches and players feels foolish.

Worst: Round Holes and Square Pegs

So yeah, about the offensive playcalling. MSU's defense isn't particularly intimidating but the one thing they've been able to do for a decade now is stop Michigan from consistently running inside. Michigan knew this last year and focused more on throwing the ball, to great success. And that's been one of Josh Gattis's defining traits as his tenure at UM has progressed - his ability to gameplan for what the defense doesn't want you to do, not just what Michigan would like to do. Obviously the offense has a core philosophy of running the ball (both from the backs as well as the QB) while mixing in the passing game, but unlike during past eras when you could set your watch to the playcalls on standard downs, this version of the offense typically tried to maximize advantages and minimize mis-matches whenever possible. Look no further than the first halves against OSU and Alabama for evidence.

Initially, I thought the offensive playcalling against MSU had regressed, that it was how it felt: a series of minimal runs into stacked boxes and setting downs on fire. And yet, on review the playcalling was more balanced, with 12 runs and 17 passes on first down before that last scoring drive featured a dozen passes. And those runs generated the same number of first downs or TDs (5/12) as passing did, though they had more success on that front in the first half than the second. Still, it obviously felt like a slog from the jump, and upon reflection I think that's because Michigan never felt like they could stay on schedule. They generally scored on drives where they didn't take a penalty or suffer lost yardage; all but one of their scoring drives were "clean" in that respect (their first TD featured the one MSU sack of the day), while only one of their non-scoring drives went off without a loss or penalty. Now, that's not particularly unique to most college offenses, but with a young QB and an offensive line performance that warrants a racheting down of expectations, Michigan found itself too often behind the sticks and unable to catch back up.

Some of that is because the offensive line struggled all day maintaining the line of scrimmage. MSU repeatedly found gaps in the blocking, sometimes with only 4 linemen, and that led to plays being re-routed or busted before they could get going. Even on some of Michigan's longer runs (I'm thinking of a Haskins's big run in particular), the backs wound up making guys miss or change direction multiple times in order to evade tacklers before they got into the open field. Compare that to last weekend wherein backs were in the open field before a defender could even get a hand on them. Milton was only sacked once but was forced out of the pocket multiple times, and overall it looked like MSU was able to consistently push back the interior of Michigan's line when they wanted to. Part of that is likely personnel but some of it also felt schematic.

What was perhaps most infuriating was a return of Michigan's reticence to run their QB on early downs. By my count Milton only ran the ball three times on first down, and only one seemed to be designed for him to do so. Obviously with the depth chart the way it is and MSU cheating up you don't want to expose your QB to excessive hits, but Michigan has a stable of good running backs that'll get defenses to bite if you give them a reason, opening up rushing lanes for Milton. Last year we all sort of assumed Patterson didn't run for reasons beyond the playcalling, but this was a game where Michigan could have used Milton's legs more efficiently and not, say, trotted out predictable wildcat runs.

And because Michigan's running game never got started, Milton wound up throwing the ball 52 times, mostly on short and intermediate passes. Honestly, if you had told me before the game that one QB would have completed under half his passes but averaged 10 ypa while the other completed 62% but only for 6 ypa, I would have assumed Milton was the one with the inconsistent howitzer. On the one hand it's a testament to Milton's maturation and ability that he never seemed panicked or manic with the ball in his hands; he made some poor throws here and there but he generally seemed to roll through his progressions and get the ball out on time. But that's not an optimal way to use Milton in this offensive scheme. Now, part of that seemed to be that the offense wasn't trying to stretch the field; on a couple of third downs Milton threw behind the marker and expected his receivers to pick up the yards after the catch. I understand that Michigan's speedy receivers are capable of mountain-goating away from defenders, but it rarely felt like Michigan's receivers were getting downfield separation or that Milton was really looking for it. Because this game, like all conference games this year, are shot like TikTok videos it was hard to see much downfield, but after watching MSU get a number of DPIs it was annoying to not see Michigan push the ball downfield and take their chances. But if you're afraid that your rocket-armed QB can't throw the ball downfield accurately, that's a major limitation for this team and one that dramatically lowers the ceiling going forward.

Best: Young Guns

I don't want to completely dismiss the effort offensively. Milton throwing the ball 52 times isn't optimal, but he didn't turn it over and generally played within himself. Both Wilson and Henning look like legitimate players as true freshmen, and Blake Corum picked up two TDs and was one of the few guys who looked demonstrably faster than the guys trying to bring him down. These are guys who can stretch the field and make this offense hum when fully operational, so if they're already integrated this deeply into the offense despite the available talent that's a positive sign. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick All struggled again bringing in the ball, though he did block well on some of Michigan's longer runs. Milton clearly has a comfort level with him and that's always valuable for a young QB to trust his TE, but All absolutely needs to start pulling in some of these throws given the matchups he tends to get.

As for the defense, I maintain that Gemon Green looks like a good #2 corner on this team. The problem, of course, is that they don't really have a #1 and that's going to kill them against teams that have multiple downfield threats. It certainly did in this game, and rotating Perry, Gray, and even Daxton Hill didn't really provide much relief. In fact, Michigan got some relief only when they shifted to two-high safeties which helped a bit but also left other parts of the field open. MSU didn't make them pay as much as they could have but teams with better offenses will, and it'll likely be pretty ugly. Again, we're only talking about 2 games and at least some of the corners' issues seemed to be misreading the play and letting guys get by them so perhaps it can be ironed out a bit, but Michigan still needs someone to emerge as a #1 corner on this team or, barring that unlikely outcome, a second, decent #2 you can help with additional coverage.

Worst: Pass Rushmore?

One of the more startling occurrences in this game was the complete lack of a Michigan pass rush. A week after both Hutchinson and Paye demolished Minnesota's offensive line, Rocky Lombardi was rarely touched despite MSU fielding a pretty forgettable line. Now, some of that seemed to be by design; MSU did a good job of chipping in with additonal blockers when necessary and Lombardi got the ball out quickly when he felt pressure. And yes, there were a number of un-called holds, but nothing egregiously different than past games. Still, MSU's offensive line isn't demonstrably better than recent vintages, yet Michigan's ends couldn't get past it. And this lack of penetration extended to the linebackers, who also struggled to get into the backfield and disrupt the MSU offense. If I was a massochist I guess I could re-watch and focus on the line, but I'll leave that to the experts.

Michigan's defensive line is only going to survive this year if they can consistently compress the ends of the pocket, and this is an ominous sign if Michigan can't do so consistently. Again, it's a weird year and this was a weird game so I'm not going to read too much into these struggles unless they persist, but the Indiana game is suddenly a referendum on whether or not this team will be able to consistently generate pressure on the QB in this league.

Worst: Whistling Pass the Graveyard

As a preface because I'm sure every MSU fan who stumbles upon this post (which they totally don't care about), Michigan didn't lose this game because of the referees. MSU was boned by stupid calls as well (there was an illegal block call that seemed like...plain ol' blocking to me) and could have lodged a couple of credible complaints had the game gone the other way. Still, a week after it felt like the refs were exceedingly lenient with holding against Minnesota, it was annoying to watch UM get called for some questionable pass interference calls (I'm thinking particularly about Gemon Green's after UM tied the game at 7) while MSU was just as grabby (an incompletion to Mike Sainristil to end Michigan's first drive in the 4th quarter jumps to mind). If the refs want to call a tight game that's fine but they need to be consistent (a) in its application to both teams and (b) throughout the game.

One of the stats I noticed in this game was that MSU had more first downs by penalty (5) than they did rushing (3). I've been writing about these games often enough that it felt like a disparity I've seen before, so I went back and looked at every game under Harbaugh and how many first downs each team got via penalty. Here's what I found.

In the last 6 games of this series, MSU has averaged a shade over 4 first downs via penalty (Michigan averages a shade under 2) and only 5 by rushing. And even that's a bit misleading, as MSU picked up a total of 20 first downs running the ball in 2016 and 2017 and have a total of...8 first downs running the ball the last 3 years. At no point since Harbaugh arrived have they "won" the penalty battle, and yet Michigan isn't particularly penalty-prone; I couldn't find a breakdown between offensive and defensive penalties but anecdotally I don't remember Michigan being egregiously dinged on defense. Again, this isn't an excuse for Michigan's loss but it's still a surprising stat.

The other issue I had with the referees, and this went both ways, was their apparent unwillingness to review questionable catches. While I think Grant Perry's reception near the goalline was correctly ruled a catch, I would have totally understood had it been investigated. But that Reed non-catch on MSU's game-winning drive absolutely shouldn't have counted and possibly changed the outcome of the game, as MSU would have had to punt and Michigan subsequently scored on the ensuing drive to pull within 3. That's sadly been a pattern in college football this year, but it was still weird to watch them review Lombardi's clear 4th-down conversion to end the game while more dubious plays remained unquestioned.

Worst: What To Make Of It All?

A lot has been made about how inexcusable this loss was, how this was clearly Harbaugh's nadir as a HC at Michigan. I get that feeling, and there's no excuse why Michigan lost to MSU after how both teams looked in week 1. But at the same time, this is an incredibly weird season. Look no further than the fact that the home team is under .500 this year (6 wins vs. 7 losses), and only Maryland won as a home team this weekend. Michigan played poorly, and both the offense and defense underwhelmed both schematically as well as on the field, but like I said up top what did people expect given how this season started? Teams are juggling spots, trying to figure out rotations and lineups, and every week we're hearing stories about guys contracting COVID-19 and games being delayed, cancelled, or played with significant chunks of rosters missing. Michigan's been lucky, I guess, that they haven't been hit hard yet, but it feels somewhat inevitable. Anyone expecting a sane and predictable season was just setting himself up for disappointment.

That's not to excuse Harbaugh, but this is sort of who he is. He's a good coach and he raises your floor but he's not going to break the ceiling that Michigan has been ramming into for the better part of 3 decades while other teams like Alabama, OSU, Clemson, etc. have smashed through. He's tried to shake up the team on both sides of the ball, bringing in guys like Brown and Gattis, and while there have been glimmers of positivity you can't only tweak at the margins so much before you either need to accept the current reality or dramatically upset the status quo. And while it's easy to say "blow it up and try something new", college football is littered with programs that tried to reset and realized too late that there's a deep chasm of pain just below your "average" season.

We'll see how this year plays out; I said when the season started I expected UM to go 5-3. Considering they've still got games against ranked IU, Wisconsin (in some form), PSU, and OSU at the end, that feels about right, give or take a game. If that leads to a referrendum on Harbaugh so be it, but there's also a good chance some of those games aren't going to happen, or the particulars will be so altered by player absences, that looking for a change because of it feels like a fool's errand.

Worst: Death to Frippery

The wildcat was innovative when it popped up in the NFL, but the fact it came into vogue with Ricky Williams sort of shows its shelf life. Yet, every time Michigan got close to the goalline Haskins saddled up under center and took a direct snap, usually smashing into the line for a yard at best. I sort of understand the deployment of this offense when you have Shea Patterson as your QB, but Joe Milton is bigger than Hassan Haskins AND has the added benefit of being able to credibly throw the ball. I screamed when Michigan tried to run a pop-pass on third down at the goalline after running with Haskins the play before, not only because it almost got picked off but also because there's no damn reason to do so with a credible dual threat already at QB. It cost Michigan 4 points that time and, arguably, the game. Much like how I hate isolation offense at the end of a basketball game, I wish offensive coordinators would just run the offense they call the rest of the game and not try to out-think a defense that has seen these formations before and know how to respond.

Quick hits

• I was surprised by how many UM players came up lame throughout the game. In a game where UM looked a step slow throughout, seeing so many players have to come off the field for stretches was a bit alarming.
• A week after Moddy missed 3 FGs, Quinn Nordin hit a routine FG and generally looked competent doing it. That was refreshing and, I hope, a glimpse of a non-terrifying future on special teams.

Next Week

So yeah, next week it'll be a battle of 2(!) ranked teams as Michigan travels to Bloomington to face 2-0, ranked Indiana. I'll be honest - I don't have a single read on this game. Michigan could get skunked for 4 quarters, they could dominate an Indiana team that needed a miracle to beat PSU and hasn't looked all that impressive, or it could be yet another game in this series where things explode in every direction and you just hope you're the one standing in the end. My gut tells me Michigan isn't as bad as they looked against MSU and they pick up a close win against the Hoosiers, somehow winning two road games against ranked teams for the first time in Harbaugh's tenure, but who the hell knows anymore.