The Big Ten West is a big, beautiful, shining mess of mediocrity this year, and I find it fascinating. So I dug into scenarios for the division title.

With two weeks remaining there are still five (!!!) teams in the running.

Two teams have been eliminated:

-Northwestern (1-7) with 1 win and 2 games left can't catch any of the teams that already have 4 wins total

-Nebraska (2-4): Because Iowa and Minnesota play each other, Nebraska pulling off upsets against Wisconsin and Iowa the next two weeks, wouldn't be able to catch the winner of the Floyd of Rosedale.

 

Situation for the contenders

Purdue (4-3)

Remaining Games: Northwestern, @IU

Tiebreakers: Illinois, Minnesota

Prediction: Win, Win (6-3)

Illinois (4-3)

Remaining Games: @Michigan, @Northwestern

Tiebreakers: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa

Prediction: Loss, Win (5-4)

Iowa (4-3)

Remaining Games: @Minnesota, Nebraska

Tiebreakers: Wisconsin, Purdue

Prediction: Toss-up, Win (5-4, or 6-3)

Minnesota (4-3)

Remaining Games: Iowa, @ Wisconsin

Tiebreakers: (none)

Prediction: Toss-up, Toss-up (4-5, 5-4, or 6-3)

Wisconsin (3-4)

Remaining Games: @Nebraska, Minnesota

Tiebreakers (none)

Prediction: Win, Toss-up (4-5, or 5-4)

 

Scenarios to get to B1G Championship Game:

Purdue:

• Win against both Northwestern and Indiana
  • Iowa loses to Minnesota or Nebraska
• Lose to one of Northwestern or Indiana
  • Iowa loses to both Minnesota and Nebraska
  • Minnesota loses to Wisconsin
  • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern

Illinois:

• Win against both Michigan and Northwestern
  • Purdue loses to either Northwestern or Indiana
• Loss to one of Michigan or Northwestern
  • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana
  • Iowa loses to either Minnesota or Nebraska

Iowa:

• Win both remaining games
  • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern
• Win against Minnesota, Loss to Nebraska:
  • Illinois loses both games
  • Purdue loses a game

Minnesota:

• Win against both Iowa and Wisconsin
  • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern
  • Purdue loses to Indiana or Northwestern
• Win against Iowa, loss to Wisconsin:
  • Wisconsin loses to Nebraska
  • Illinois loses to both Michigan and Northwestern
  • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana

Wisconsin:

• Win against both Nebraska and Minnesota
  • Iowa loses to Nebraska
  • Illinois loses to both Michigan and Northwestern
  • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana

No team controls their own destiny

The snake is eating its tail, and oh is it tasty. Because of tiebreakers being dealt out evenly, no team can win out and go to Indy without help, which is incredibly hilarious.

Let's filter out some very unlikely scenarios to get down to what could happen

Wisconsin, while still alive, really needs a tear in the fabric of spacetime. While each are possible, Northwestern beating both Purdue and Illinois along with Iowa losing to Nebraska is extremely unlikely.

Minnesota can't lose a game. Nebraska beating Wisconsin, and Northwestern winning out against Illinois and Purdue is extremely unlikely.

Iowa probably can't lose a a game. Illinois losing to Northwestern and Purdue losing to Northwestern or IU is not likely.

Pretty unlikely: All you had to do was beat Michigan State!

Illinois is probably out of it.

They will need to break a 2-game skid and pull off a big upset against Michigan to have a somewhat realistic shot. In addition to that, Purdue would need to drop a game to either Northwestern or Indiana. They are inconsistent, but will be favored in both games, so adding that to an upset at the Big House, seems pretty unlikely.

A likely loss to Michigan requires Purdue to lose to both Northwestern and IU, which is also very unlikely.

It seems to come down to a pivotal game

Iowa @ Minnesota next week is the likely decider of this all.

Iowa winning means they are 5-3 and only need to beat Nebraska and Illinois to lose to Michigan to lock in an Indy trip.

If Minnesota wins, it puts Purdue in the driver seat and they just need to beat Northwestern and Indiana, games in which they will likely be favored.

Minnesota is seriously in the mix too

Minnesota winning the Floyd of Rosedale means they need Michigan to win next week, and Purdue to get upset by either Northwestern or Indiana.

Michigan's rooting interest

East scenarios are clear now: the winner of The Game is in, no matter what else happens.

None of these teams are terrifying, but it seems like Purdue is the most dangerous team to play at this point due to the potency potential of their offense. That means root for a Minnesota win when they host Iowa next week, or for Purdue to lose against IU in the last week of the regular season.

I personally, would prefer to see Minnesota. If you're with me, we want Minnesota to beat Iowa next week and for Purdue to drop a game.

None of these scenarios seem like a lock

While the Big Ten is likely to shake things up in the near future with the B1G Championship game always going to the East winner (so far) and USC & UCLA joining the conference, who can deny the fun this brings? I truly can't tell you what's going to happen. Bust out your popcorn!