Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Year	Margin	Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +	Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
2007	0.15 (41st)	14	15	2.46(33rd)	14	13	2.17 (67th)
2008	-.83 (104th)	9	11	2.42(33rd)	12	18	1.83 (57th)
2009	-1.00 (115th)	11	5	1.83(68th)	15	13	2.33 (83rd)
2010	-0.77(109th)	12	7	1.38(98th)	15	14	0.85(10th)
2011	+0.54 (25th)	9	20	2.31 (29th)	16	6	1.38 (33rd)
2012	-0.69 (99th)	7	11	1.69 (69th)	19	8	1.38 (28th)
2013	+0.38(33rd)	17	9	1.9 (64th)	13	8	2.77 (109th)
2014	-1.33 (124th)	5	5	2.4 (49th)	18	8	2.2 (63rd)
2015	-0.31 (92nd)	10	2	2.5 (32nd)	10	6	1.4 (28th)
2016	+0.54 (24th)	13	6	3.54(5th)	7	5	1.69 (39th)
2017	-0.31 (90th)	10	7	3.23(8th)	10	11	2.77 (111th)
2018	+0.38 (35th)	11	6	10.5% (3rd)	9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2019	+0	9	11	9.0% (16th)	9	11	6.1% (61st)
2020	+0.38 (35th)	11	6	10.5% (3rd)	9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2021	+0.14 (56th)	8	8	6.8% (62nd)	5	9	3.3% (6th)

Despite having extremely good turnover avoidance Michigan was almost dead even a year ago. The QBs and most of the OL return so sack avoidance should still stay high. The pressure number for Michigan is distorted by the inevitability of Hutchinson—most teams did a lot of dinking. I mostly include this in case Michigan is extraordinarily lucky or unlucky and can expect some regression. This doesn't look like much of anything, projection-wise.

Position Switches

new number, new spot [Patrick Barron]

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. Flipping sides of the ball is very bad. Sliding an OT to OG is probably fine. Sliding an OG to OT… might be bad. Flipping ILB slots is nothing.

One important one and not much else. In relative order of importance:

WR Mike Sanristil to nickel. Sainristil is now the third corner and starting nickel, so this is 50% of a position switch starter. Michigan has a good backup plan if it doesn't work out, and Sainristil was named a captain. The latter implies he's at least hacking it there. Concern level is extant, but low.

LB Kalel Mullings to RB, sort of? This is worse for LB than RB since it seems pretty clear the RB room could use a bruiser with upside. He's split time 50/50 between offense and defense… and is scheduled to start this weekend against CSU because Nikhai Hill-Green is dinged up. Since Mullings isn't a starter long term this isn't a huge deal but it does point to the severe lack of LB depth.

DT Julius Welschof to DE. Welschof was plugged in at a weak spot last year and is plugged in at a weak spot this year. At DE he's another lottery ticket who won't play if he doesn't hit. NBD.

CB Eamonn Dennis to WR. Dennis isn't likely to see the field.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios: Given the schedule 8-4 seems like a bare minimum. There's only four teams on the schedule that even kind of sort of project to be solid teams, and that's projecting that Nebraska is not a battered shell of itself by November.

Best Case: 12-0. It is not hard to project Michigan to OSU undefeated and I'm saying there's a chance.

Final Verdict

The schedule is not intimidating until the very end. Michigan has no P5 nonconference games and draws Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois out of the West. There are only four road games; two of them are at Indiana and Rutgers. PSU and MSU are at home. Going into OSU with more than one loss would be disappointing:

Conference
9/3	Colorado State	Must win
9/10	Hawaii	Must win
9/17	UConn	Must win
9/24	Maryland	Likely win
10/1	@ Iowa	Lean to win
10/8	@ Indiana	Likely win
10/15	PSU	Likely win
10/29	MSU	Likely win
11/5	@ Rutgers	Must win
11/12	Nebraska	Likely win
11/19	Illinois	Must win
11/26	@ OSU	Lean to loss
Absent:	Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota

 I've got it at 10-2, with something dumb happening against Iowa, PSU, or MSU and then Michigan not quite getting over the hump in Columbus. 11-1 is more likely than 9-3.