Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Iowa
WHERE	Homesure Lending Stadium Indianapolis, IN
WHEN	8:17 Eastern, Saturday
THE LINE	M -11
TELEVISION	FOX (Johnson/Klatt)
TICKETS	good luck
WEATHER	it's indoors

Overview

Michigan versus Iowa was well down the list of possible Big Ten Championship games, but

Iowa had to pull out a game against Nebraska in which they trailed 21-9 in the second half, and then Wisconsin had to gack it up against Minnesota, oh and also Michigan had to beat Ohio State. That trifecta hit, and so see above.

This version of Iowa is basically Wisconsin minus some key parts, like functional pass protection and the A+ defense Wisconsin has this year. They're 10-2, yes, but rank just 21st in SP+; they're actually one slot behind a 7-5 Iowa State team they managed to beat early in the year whilst being outgained 2-to-1. So they're not scary, except in the way that they're scary where you get stuck in a slog and then some guy who used to live on a pig farm writes himself into local legend.

Still, nice to be favored by 11 in a conference championship game.

[Hit THE JUMP for words]

Run Offense vs Iowa

grunt and move [Patrick Barron]

Well, it's Iowa: they run a 4-3 and primarily base out of cover two, like they have for twenty years. These days the Hawkeyes do concede to modern football by having a spacebacker, the 205-pound safety-ish Dane Becton.

This edition of Iowa doesn't have the elite DL or two they always seem to roll out but the results have been uniformly excellent nonetheless. Iowa's giving up under 3 yards an attempt, which is second best in the conference. Comparisons to Wisconsin will be drawn but the Badgers are on another level at a stunning 2.0.

Michigan did have to grind it out against the Badgers, struggling to 2.6 yards per carry, but that was actually one of the better performances of the year against Wisconsin. Iowa is good; they are not generational.

Iowa excels at preventing chunk plays. They've given up 35 ten-yard runs this year but only four of those have cracked 20 and none have gone 30. (For comparison, Wisconsin gave up a ridiculous 16 ten-yard runs this year; Paul Chryst only has himself to blame that Wisconsin is not in this game.) Most of their line yards stats are more solid to middling than ridiculous—28th in line yards allowed, 85th in power success rate allowed, 84th in sack rate—but Iowa again excels at preventing 4+ yard runs.

How are they doing this? Well, one, by playing a large number of terrible offenses. But also by being extremely sound even if they were getting pushed back by the better offenses on the schedule. Alex:

The Badgers ran for only 3.5 YPC as a team, but Braelon Allen, who I think is their best back by a considerable margin, was able to rush for 5.2 YPC. And looking under the hood, you see some encouraging signs for a team like Michigan. Notably, the defensive tackles were often being moved by Wisconsin's interior offensive line, and it was the linebackers and safeties who were helping to fill the gaps and make up for it. This is a problem that can be eliminated if you pass the ball effectively and spread those LBs out, something Wisconsin was incapable of doing.

Hassan Haskins looks like a good matchup here because his ability to grind out 2-3 extra yards on every play just as long as the OL can deliver him a couple yards downfield is likely to push out those two and three yard runs to four and five, which is a massive difference over time.

KEY MATCHUP:

Pass Offense vs Iowa

no whammies [Fuller]

Cover two shell, tons of INTs from defensive backs that didn't have much recruiting profile, linebackers roaming underneath: Iowa remains Iowa. Starting corner Matt Hankins is out, and that figures to be a major blow even if Alex though David Bell lit him up. The guy starting opposite Hankins, Riley Moss, has four INTs this year despite missing  a couple games and was named first team All Big Ten. Michigan might be able to avoid him somewhat because their receiving options are all pretty equal. It may not matter that much, because there's nothing fluky about Iowa's ability to generate INTs. Alex:

Here are their ranks in INTs per game by year among all FBS defenses:

2017: 2nd

2018: 3rd

2019: 34th

2020: 11th

2021: 1st

Turnovers are generally random luck, but Iowa's ability to generate interceptions specifically is not luck, it's schematic

This might be a game to avoid the middle of the field except on heavy play action, because most scenarios where Michigan loses feature a –2 or worse in the turnover battle.

Iowa does not get after the QB particularly well; they're 86th in sack rate. Again this is a conservative team that wants to force you to drive the length of the field. Alex charted a blitz rate of 32%, which is pretty low, but unlike the rush defense this is a team that's giving up a relatively low number of 10 yard plays and a relatively high number of bigger chunks. They also tend to play off coverage so quick game stuff is there.

Michigan's pass protection and interception avoidance have been elite this season. Michigan's up to second nationally in sack rate allowed after skunking Ohio State, and McNamara has taken advantage of that to throw just three picks on the season, one of which came when McNamara saw a Nebraska DL jump offsides and took a free play that was not in fact free since the officials missed the call.

Michigan seems better prepared than just about any team to deal with Iowa's approach because they can productively dump it off to their backs, use All in play action, and allow a very interception-averse QB plenty of time to find open guys against the zone. Purdue ripped the Iowa pass defense. Since Iowa missed Adrian Martinez and (most of) Sean Clifford due to injury they did not play a single functional passing offense the rest of the year unless Minnesota's all-RPO-all-the-time attack counts.

Meanwhile Michigan has had YPA days of 8.5, 8, 7.5, 8.8, and 9.5 down the stretch here. Wobbles against Rutgers and Northwestern are a long time ago.

KEY MATCHUP: MCNAMARA vs PICKS. If he has zero, Michigan wins.

Run Defense vs Iowa

doooooom [Fuller]

One does not want to be condescending, but Iowa's offense is not good. At all. They've gotten by on a ton of turnovers and special teams plays, squeezing by Iowa State despite 173 yards of offense, getting outgained by Northwestern, and putting up 14 points against Purdue and Wisconsin in their two losses. They are averaging under 300 yards a game; amongst teams Michigan has already played they're most statistically similar to Northwestern and Indiana.

Things are more grim in the air but even on the ground Iowa is 120th in line yards and 120th in stuff rate; they're also triple digits when it comes to gaining 4+ yards. Despite this, running back Tyler Goodson has decent stats (4.6). Everyone thinks center Tyler Lindenbaum is headed for the top ten picks of the NFL draft, but the rest of the offensive line is a mess in pass protection. They're good executing the same inside/outside zone scheme Iowa has run for a million years, but their deficiencies in the other phase led to this incredible run/pass split in the Wisconsin game:

That's a team that's running until it's in an obvious passing down. I doubt this kind of split persists in the championship game because Iowa will be more likely to take early-down shots given the extreme unlikelihood of Iowa driving the field. It is probably not going to be that far off, though.

As far as results on the ground have gone, Goodson has turned it up a couple notches as the season comes to a close:

Opponent	Carries	Yards	YPC	TDs
Indiana	19	99	5.21	1
@ Iowa St.	21	55	2.62	1
Kent St.	22	153	6.95	3
Colorado St.	18	57	3.17	0
@ Maryland	19	66	3.47	0
Penn St.	25	88	3.52	0
Purdue	12	68	5.67	0
@ Wisconsin	13	27	2.08	0
@ Northwestern	21	141	6.71	1
Minnesota	18	59	3.28	0
Illinois	27	132	4.89	0
@ Nebraska	23	156	6.78	0

Caveats apply since Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska are the conference's #14, #8, and #10 rush defenses in yards per carry. Michigan is just 7th but there's a pretty big gap from 7 to 8, and Michigan's spent the bulk of the back half of the season playing very conservatively against teams that have reasonable (or lethal) passing attacks. Iowa is not that, and Michigan will likely get more nosy on early downs, particularly given how predictable they are forced to be because of the pass pro issues.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN LINEBACKERS vs ZONE RUN FITS. Has been an issue from time to time and all Goodson does is run zone so any missed gaps are likely to be exploited.

Pass Defense vs Iowa

 

Ragaini is used to this kind of thing [Fuller]

This should be a Hutchinson/Ojabo bloodbath. Iowa is 103rd in sack rate allowed; they've given up 31 despite only passing around 330 times. Alex on that OL:

 

The bad news is every other part of the line outside of Linderbaum is a tire fire. Iowa rotates a lot of guys in and out at the other four spots but has struggled to find the consistency they're looking for. The line, particularly the interior, is pretty good at run blocking. It's just that the entire line, save for Linderbaum, is a pass blocking catastrophe. I like LG Kyler Schott and I didn't mind RG Connor Colby, but Colby in particular has some major pass blocking issues. The rotational guards are Justin Britt and Cody Ince, with the former being particularly weak in pass blocking. It's the tackles, though, where things really break open. Iowa is slated to start Jack Plumb at LT and Nick DeJong at RT and both received at least a half-cyan for pass blocking, and both were abused in the clips I'm about to show you.

Spencer Petras has been named as Iowa's starter; Alex Padilla was an option after a midseason injury gave Padilla the opportunity to play and get ~100 attempts in. Petras is completing 58% of his passes for 6.5 YPA; Padilla 46% for 6.2. Padilla is generally regarded as more mobile but that's in a "moves around and rolls out" sense. He has –25 rushing yards. (Petras is at –99). This might be relevant if Petras continues to struggle as mightily as he has against pressure this year:

so... according to @PFF_College, spencer petras has averaged 3.3 yards on his 64 attempts under pressure this season, third-worst in the big ten ahead of jack tuttle and art sitkowski

— football season ace (@AceAnbender) December 2, 2021

"Michigan gets a ton of rush and Iowa turns to Padilla hoping for a spark" is a fairly likely occurrence tomorrow.

Tight end Sam LaPorta leads Iowa in catches and yards, as is foredained by fate, and is likely to be a mid-round NFL draft prospect if he decides to come out this year. He's… I mean… you know, an Iowa tight end.

#Huskers Play Action from Iowa.

TE Sam LaPorta makes the Catch for 30 Yards.

Ft. Husker Sports Radio pic.twitter.com/YAeX3oGh0U

— @DaltonEastNE (@DaltonEastNE) November 27, 2021

He's averaging 12 yards a catch, respectable for a TE. Receivers Keagan Johnson, Nico Ragaini, and Charlie Jones are all fairly nondescript: they are neither majestic leaping high-point guys or little slot buggers; they're all around 6'0" and decent all-around players.

Iowa is likely to hit some underneath passes when Michigan's zone looks like it looks presnap, but when Mike Macdonald is able to induce a delay—probably any delay—the walls are likely to cave in.

KEY MATCHUP: AIDAN HUTCHINSON vs GO GET THE STATUE. If Bama loses to Georgia and Hutchinson turns in something similar to his OSU game he's got one hand on the trophy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is a matchup of FEI's #1 and #2 special teams units in the country, and by a mile. The gap from #2 Michigan to #3 Texas A&M is the same as the gap between A&M and #20 Baylor. Michigan surged into the lead after a blocked punt and fancy KOR touchdown against Maryland, but Iowa regained the crown by blocking a Nebraska punt for a touchdown last week. This is no fluke:

Iowa saw something in NU's punt protection that led to a game-turning play. Marchese told reporters after the game that Iowa's punt block team practiced the attack all week if NU was punting from the left hash mark, and got a feel for the Huskers' cadence.

Also Oliver Martin fair caught a ball at the seven, which resulted in a safety a little bit later.

More broadly: Iowa does everything at least well. Kicker Caleb Shudak is 22/25 on the season and ranks third once distance is taken into account. Punter Tory Taylor is averaging 46 yards a kick and and has only suffered 77 return yards on a whopping 69 punts. Returner Charlie Jones has a kick return TD against Illinois and is averaging 8.5 yards per punt return—second only to AJ Henning, but Henning has issues catching the ball that Jones generally does not. Shudak's getting touchbacks on about 60% of his kickoffs and opponents have not gotten a plus return all year.

Michigan essentially matches all that except Brad Robbins is even better at preventing returns and dropping the ball inside the ten and kickoffs are even less likely to see any kind of return. That will hopefully neutralize Jones, and then it's just about the kickers keeping up their season-long consistency unless one team manages to block something.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Iowa's able to Army it up with a bunch of short gains that turn into makeable third downs.
• McNamara's throwing into coverage a lot.
• The ghost of Ron Coluzzi descends on Iowa special teams.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• It's a passing down.
• Iowa linebackers are catching Hassan Haskins in the face a few yards downfield.
• Iowa is forced into catchup mode.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Crazy Kinnick Juju Even Though It's Not At Kinnick, +1 for Special Teams To Match M, –1 for Paper Tackles, –1 for Immobile Quarterbacks, –1 for Can't Drive The Field Against, Like, Nebraska And Northwestern, +1 for That Is A Lot Of Interceptions, +1 for Ferentz Will Be Aggressive Just To Annoy Us, –1 for Cinderella Story Vs Legit Top Team)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for Playoff Bid And Big Ten Championship At Stake)

Loss will cause me to…  McKayla Maroney face for six months.

Win will cause me to… read a lot of tweets about bad Michigan streaks that came to an end this year.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

This is a really bad offense that doesn't run it consistently enough to stay out of passing downs that are not going to go well. I assume that Iowa's going to look at this matchup and break tendencies as hard as they possibly can, and that'll probably get them some yards. Touchdowns seem unlikely. This is a team that has scored about 10 points a game on drives where they weren't set up in deep in opposition territory by interceptions or special teams. I'd expect around that Saturday, maybe plus 3-7 if they hit something tricky.

The Iowa defense is a much better unit that is hard to judge because there's ain't played nobody and then there's Big Ten West with crossovers against Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland. It looks like they're set up to give up 3 yards a carry that Haskins will extend to an untenable five, and Michigan's passing attack should keep an INT-averse QB clean.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hutchinson has two sacks.
• McNamara does not throw a pick.
• Michigan, 29-12.