About Last Week

In the year 390 BC, in the earliest days of the Roman Republic, Gauls from the north invaded the Italian peninsula. They defeated the Romans at the Battle of Allia, and then conquered and sacked Rome. As a ransom for the return of the city, the Gauls demanded 1,000 pounds of gold from the Romans. The Romans agreed.

According to Livy, when it came time to weigh out the gold, the Gauls brought a large scale and a series of weights. The Romans thought the scale and weights were rigged, and they complained to Brennus, the long-haired chieftain of the Gauls, that they were not being treated fairly. Brennus heard their complaint, withdrew his sword, dropped it on the scale with the other weights (adding to the amount of gold the Romans had to bring), and declared “Vae Victis.” The most common translation is “woe to the vanquished.”

 

A more modern translation, though, might be “hold this L.”

The Road Ahead

Penn State (5-2, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 33-28

Recap: This game was supposed to be the oasis in the middle of Penn State’s march through a tricky middle portion of the schedule. Instead, the Nittany Lions trailed in this game late in the third quarter, and never managed to separate themselves from a team whose only conference win was over Rutgers by 7. Trace McSorley was almost the entire Penn State offense; he was responsible for more than 75% of Penn State’s 73 offensive plays (36 passes, 16 carries, 3 sacks). That makes 3 straight games where McSorley has been responsible for >70% of plays. He only hit that number twice all of last year.

Penn State has, as an English soccer announcer would say, lost the plot a bit. For the fourth straight week, they’ve turned in a performance that was more head-scratching and less defensible than the week before.

• They struggled with Illinois for three quarters, which, okay but they won by 39 points so how mad are you gonna get lol.
• They blew a lead to Ohio State, which, okay but Ohio State is pretty good.
• They blew a lead to Michigan State, which, okay but fumble luck and weird Sparty shit happened and maybe Michigan State is secretly good.
• They nearly lost to Indiana, which, okay but… uh… the thing is… hey did you see that Purdue game?

This is not the ideal trajectory for a team that is only now hitting the crux of their schedule. They have consecutive matchups with Iowa, Michigan (on the road), and Wisconsin. They may already be out of the Big Ten East race, but one more loss would certainly do it.

This team is as frightening as: A pancreas. Not 100% sure how it works or what it does, but a bad one killed my pa, so maybe don’t screw around with it. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Since Don Brown arrived in Ann Arbor, Penn State is the only team to exceed 6 yards per play against Michigan, when they racked up 8.3 YPP last year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The fact that Don Brown isn’t sleeping well.

Don Brown apparently hasn't been sleeping much Still stinging from Penn State game last year. Was asked on Inside Michigan Football radio show if he's had the upcoming game circled for a while: "I wake up every morning and I think about it"

— angelique (@chengelis) October 22, 2018

When they play Michigan: Two stops left on the Revenge Tour.

Next week: vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (PSU -6)

[AFTER THE JUMP: More discussion of ancient Gaul, probably.]

Rutger (1-7, 0-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Northwestern 18-15

Recap: The good news: Progress!

Despite being a 3-touchdown underdog, and despite their overwhelming Rutgerness, Rutger led this game for nearly 27 minutes. On defense, they held Northwestern to 3.43 yards per play, the Wildcats’ worst non-Michigan offensive outing of the season. Offensively, Isiah Pacheco had his second consecutive productive day on the ground, rushing for 76 yards on 11 carries, including a 44-yard touchdown. Artur Sitkowski had a more than 10-fold increase in his passing output over last week, throwing for 81 yards on 31 attempts. More importantly, for the second time this year, he didn’t throw a single interception.

The bad news:

Good for Rutgers that they figured out how to inflate their Finding Nemo swimmies. But for what is coming, they’d probably need an ark.

This team is as frightening as: Man nipples. I know why they exist (at least in theory), but that doesn’t make it any less weird. Serve no purpose whatsoever. Can theoretically be displayed in public, but that is frowned upon in many settings. They are generally ignored, but if attention is drawn to them, it’s almost certainly not for a good reason. Prone to chafing. Fear Level = 1

Michigan should worry about: Michigan is only 1-1 all-time at Rutger.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan’s average scoring margin in those two games at Rutger has been +38.

When they play Michigan: “play” is a generous verb here.

Next week: Bye

Indiana (4-4, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 33-28

Recap: A good ol’ fashioned Indiana game, in which the Hoosiers outgained a ranked team by 137 yards but manage to blow a second half lead in the manner of a waiter carrying a tray full of banana cream pies through a fancy restaurant in a slapstick comedy. There’s the setup, then the moment of purposeful delay, as if “oh, maybe he won’t catapult that tray of pies onto the 87-year-old lady in the fur coat,” and then, BAM, 95-yard kickoff return.

This team is as frightening as: I absolutely cannot get a read of this team. They are the mystery box you reach into at Halloween. Is it peeled grapes, or is it HUMAN EYEBALLS??? Sure, it’s probably grapes BUT MAAAAAAAYBE IT’S EYEBALLS (definitely grapes). Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Indiana is actually 13th in the country in number of offensive plays per game. In the Big Ten, only Ohio State and Northwestern run more plays per game. Given Michigan’s depth issues at defensive tackle and general desire to rest guys up and stay healthy for the Ohio State game as much as possible, the last thing they want to do is play a bajillion snaps.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ideally, those extra snaps would get some backups some extra run if the game goes the way you the statistics would suggest.

When they play Michigan: The game never goes the way the statistics suggest.

Next week: at Minnesota, 8:00 p.m. FRIDAY, FS1 (IU -2.5)

Ohio State (7-1, 4-1 B1G)

Last week:

(•_•)
<) )╯    Lost
/ \

\(•_•)
( (>      To
/ \

(•_•)
<) )>    Purdue
/ \

Recap: Okay, that’s not entirely accurate. Ohio State did not lose to Purdue. Ohio State got boat raced by Purdue.

***NERD ASIDE***

While I have used it many times, I was unfamiliar with the etymology of “boat race” as a verb meaning “to beat like a redheaded stepchild.” And, in an attempt to make sure I didn’t accidentally use an offensive, uncouth phrase (such as, for example, “to beat like a redheaded stepchild”), I looked it up. It turns out, the Boat Race is the name of an annual 8-man rowing/crew race between Oxford and Cambridge on the Thames. Given the nature of the Thames in that spot, whichever boat gets out front early can move into the middle of the river, where the current is fastest, and is therefore almost never overtaken.

And boy, did Ohio State get boat raced.

Purdue came out with their foot on the gas (yes, I know boats don’t have gas pedals), and never let up. And once they settled in with a lead, it was over. But while the Boilers blew the game open in the second half, that’s not when they won it. They won it on the last drive of the first half. After Ohio State missed a short field goal to come up empty on a red zone trip (a theme in this game), Purdue had the ball on their own 20 with 1:51 and a 7-3 lead. A lot of coaches would be content with their modest lead and play it conservatively. But Jeff Brohm was aggressive, and Purdue drove to the Ohio State 13, where they faced a 4th and 3 with 30 seconds left.

EVERY COACH IN AMERICA kicks the field goal in that situation. Every single one. Points going into the locker room, and a 10-3 lead at the half over the #2 team in the country? Who doesn’t take that? Well, Future Louisville Head Coach Jeff Brohm, that’s who. He called for a fake, and his PUNTER SLASH HOLDER ran Jordan Fuller the hell over for a first down. Purdue scored on the next play to go up 14-3 and claim the middle of the Thames. From there, it was just a matter of breaking huge play after huge play.

More like Row-dale Moore, amirite

This team is as frightening as: I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked through Columbus at dusk looking for an MS Paint. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: /gestures subtly towards this entire century of Michigan/Ohio State

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Dwayne Haskins threw the ball 73 times. Against Purdue. Because Ohio State’s run game churned out 78 yards on 24 carries.

This loss makes 5 straight games in which Ohio State failed to rush for 4 yards per carry. In the first six years of the Urban Meyer Era, Ohio State had a TOTAL of 7 games of <4 yards per carry.

And this is the side of the ball that is WORKING.

When they play Michigan: Startin’ to get those old familiar feelings.

Next week: Bye

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Notre Dame (7-0)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

Next week: at Navy, 8:00 p.m., CBS (ND -24)

Western Michigan (6-2, 4-0 MAC)

Last week: Won at Central Michigan, 35-10

kelly shorts

Recap: You probably didn’t see much of it, because for some stupid-ass reason the MAC scheduled the game on the same day as Michigan/Michigan State (and the lightning delay extended the Michigan game well into the afternoon window), but Western thumped the Chippewas at Kelly-Shorts Stadium. And they did it by running the ball down the Chips’ throats. The Broncos threw nine passes on the day. They only threw two passes in the entire second half. For a pass-happy team, that says something about something.

Western left Ann Arbor as the #117 S&P+ team, with an 0-2 record and a 49-3 shellacking ringing in their ears. Since then, they’ve run off six straight wins, including a dominating road win over their biggest rival. They’re up to #74 in S&P+, and they’re on a collision course with NIU for a last-game-of-the-regular-season, winner-take-all game for the MAC West title.

Next week: vs. Toledo, 7:00 p.m. Thursday, ESPN2 (WMU -6)

SMU (3-4, 2-1 AAC)

Last week: Won at Tulane, 27-23

Recap: SMU left Michigan as the #117 S&P+ team, with an 0-2 record and a 45-20 shellacking ringing in their ears. Since then, they’ve won 3 out of 4, and are marginally less shitty. They, however, are not on a collision course with anything other than the bottom of the canyon, as they now face a four week stretch that includes Cincinnati, Houston, and Memphis.

On the bright side, this four week stretch ALSO includes UConn, who is surrendering an unfathomable 9.23 yards per play. The second-worst team in the country is more than 1.5 yards per play better than UConn. One play against UConn is worth almost 2.5 plays against Michigan. So, SMU will get to have some fun and score some points.

Next week: vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN (SMU +8)

 

Nebraska (1-6, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 53-28

Recap:

It’s been a long time coming, and was only a matter of time, but Nebraska FINALLY got that first win under Scott Frost.

The funny thing is, it wasn’t that much different from their performances against Colorado, Purdue, or Northwestern: really good, balanced offensive production, but also some significant defensive lapses (especially through the air). And, on a completely totally unrelated note, Nebraska plays Ohio State in two weeks.

Next week: vs. Bethune-Cookman, noon, BTN (Nebraska -many)

Northwestern (4-3, 4-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutger, 18-15

Recap:

There’s no such thing as a ‘good’ three point win over Rutger. But if such a thing were possible, this wasn’t that. Northwestern scored a touchdown on their opening drive, and then scored a net one point on their next ten drives (one field goal scored, one safety allowed. They needed a 4th quarter touchdown drive featuring two 4th down conversions to retake the lead.

At 3.43 yards per play, Northwestern became the first Power 5 team to accumulate less than 4.0 yards per play against Rutger since Rutger joined the Big Ten. Kansas averaged three times as many yards per carry against Rutger as Northwestern’s 2.72 YPC. And they didn’t intercept Artur Sitkowski. WHO DOESN’T INTERCEPT ARTUR SITKOWSKI WHEN HE THROWS THE BALL 31 TIMES? His interception rate was 8.5% coming in.

Northwestern still controls its own fate in the Big Ten West, but at this point, I wouldn’t trust them to control a potato peeler without supervision.

Next week: vs. Wisconsin, noon, FOX (NW +6.5)

Maryland (4-3, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 23-0

Recap: Maryland ran 39 plays. They gained 115 yards. They didn’t cross the Iowa 40 yard line once. With sacks, they averaged 1.9 yards per pass attempt. They did not win.

Maryland is Cecil Fielder. Or, probably more like Rob Deer. Maryland doesn’t give mediocre performances. They don’t swing to make contact and move runners over. No, sir. They swing for the fences. And if they make contact, that ball is going over them there mountains. And if they don’t make contact… yeah they usually don’t make contact.

Maryland has played seven games. They have four wins, and those wins were damn decisive: a win over currently #6 Texas (which, we don’t have time to discuss, but… #6 Texas?), a 45-14beatdown of Bowling Green in which they outgained BG by 5.3 yards per play, a 42-13 evisceration of Minnesota in which they outgained the Gophers by 4.8 yards per play, and a 34-7 Rutgering of Rutger in which they allowed 8 yards passing.

In those losses, though… man. A 21-point loss to Temple (without an offensive score), a 21 point loss to Michigan (with one offensive score until the garbagiest of garbage time), and a 23-point loss to Iowa (where they didn't even pretend to try to feign to score any points of any kind at any point in the game).

Next week: vs. Illinois, 3:30 p.m., BTN (MD -17.5)

Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Illinois, 49-20

Recap: This game went about as you would expect, so there’s no reason to discuss for long. The first half was played in snow, hail, wind, and general unpleasantness, leading to a total of seven first-half turnovers (5 by Illinois, 2 by Wisconsin). Wisconsin was up 14-0 midway through the 1st quarter, and Illinois never came close to threatening the lead.

I do, however, want to be sure you all saw this. Because this is some Big Ten shit.

Dude drops a punt snap in the snow, picks it up, boots it 13 yards… and a LINEBACKER fields it on the fly in traffic.

(Illinois, by the way, is staring down the barrel of another 3 or 4 win season. The Illini are 8-23 under Lovie Smith. Their current 2019 recruiting class is ranked #75 in the country, and last in the Big Ten. It’s not looking great. Other than Lovie’s beard, which remains scrumtrulescent.)

Next week: @ Northwestern, noon, FOX (UW -6.5)

Michigan State (4-3, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan, 21-7

Recap: Remember that? I remember that.

Next week: vs. Purdue, noon, ESPN (MSU -2)

Wait, say that part again: (MSU -2)

Take my money: I’m not a bookie, sir. This article is for entertainment purposes only.