Fall Roster Overanalysis Comment Count

Seth

EVENT REMINDER:

FOOTBALL EVE 2018, hosted by Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending, will be at 6:00 PM on Thursday, August 30, at 327 E. Hoover, Ann Arbor—the same place as last year. There will be 12802hsllogoScratch BBQ and Catering. There will be beer. There will be "OMIGOD COLLEGE FOOTBALL" on TV.

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Don't look too closely at the video or the new weights or you'll realize you're being a little bit lied to. Doesn't matter, we've got PHONEBOOKS so let's OVERANALYZE them as is TRADITION around these PARTS! Steve?

Can I help?

Yes.

Chart?

Yes.

WEIGHT GAIN 2000 AND 18 THOUSAND!

We had something new this spring: an incoming freshman roster. That seemed to be coming from the players themselves since they didn't match any of the services. Anyway we have that to compare with the new bodies. The rules:

  1. All weight gain is muscle
  2. All weight lost was excess fat
  3. No change means the player replaced excess fat with more muscle.
QUARTERBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Shea Patterson     200 203 205     +3 +2
Brandon Peters     216 220 230     +4 +10
Dylan McCaffrey       199 217       +18
Joe Milton       220 234       +14
RUNNING BACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Karan Higdon   190 189 190 202   -1 +1 +12
Chris Evans     200 206 216     +6 +10
Tru Wilson     190 200 202     +10 +2
O'Maury Samuels       192 205       +13
Kurt Taylor       194 195       +1
Christian Turner       185 200       +15
Hassan Haskins       207 212       +5
Michael Barrett       215 224       +9
FULLBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Jared Wangler 219 230 229 240 240 +11 -1 +11 -
Ben Mason       251 254       +3
Ben VanSumeren       232 236       +4
SLOT RECEIVER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Grant Perry   185 196 191 195   +11 -5 +4
Eddie McDoom     180 181 187     +1 +6
Nate Schoenle     185 192 202     +7 +10
Oliver Martin       198 200       +2
WIDE RECEIVER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Donovan Peoples-Jones       199 208       +9
Tarik Black       206 215       +9
Nico Collins       206 218       +12
Ronnie Bell       174 182       +8
TIGHT END
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Zach Gentry   230 244 248 262   +14 +4 +14
Nick Eubanks     236 240 252     +4 +12
Sean McKeon     240 248 251     +8 +3
Ryan Hayes       262 271       +9
Luke Schoonmaker       229 231       +2
Mustapha Muhammad       244 245       +1
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Juwann Bushell-Beatty 319 319 311 315 318 - -8 +4 +3
Grant Newsome   280 318 314 318   +38 -4 +4
Nolan Ulizio   293 291 295 305   -2 +4 +10
Jon Runyan Jr.   275 304 298 310   +29 -6 +12
James Hudson       302 301       -1
Andrew Stueber       314 323       +9
Jalen Mayfield       275 296       +21
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Stephen Spanellis     335 307 300     -28 -7
Ben Bredeson     310 308 320     -2 +12
Michael Onwenu     350 350 350     - -
Andrew Vastardis     305 311 317     +6 +6
Cesar Ruiz       316 319       +3
Joel Honigford       275 295       +20
Chuck Filiaga       345 341       -4
Phillip Paea       275 296       +21
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Bryan Mone 312 325 310 325 335 +13 -15 +15 +10
Lawrence Marshall 241 238 268 285 285 -3 +30 +17 -
Michael Dwumfour     300 290 285     -10 -5
Aubrey Solomon       297 287       -10
Deron Irving-Bey       274 294       +20
Donovan Jeter       288 308       +20
DEFENSIVE END
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Chase Winovich 220 230 245 253 255 +10 +18 +8 +2
Reuben Jones   225 222 245 250   +3 +23 +5
Rashan Gary     287 281 283     -6 +2
Ron Johnson     245 264 267     +19 +3
Carlo Kemp     255 264 280     +9 +16
Luiji Vilain       242 255       +13
Kwity Paye       241 260       +19
Taylor Upshaw       240 246       +6
Aidan Hutchinson       258 268       +10
Julius Welschof       253 253       -
LINEBACKER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Noah Furbush 210 217 238 240 237 +7 +21 +2 -3
Josh Uche     217 226 238     +9 +12
Devin Bush     232 222 233     -10 +11
Devin Gil     230 220 231     -10 +11
Jordan Anthony       236 245       +9
Drew Singleton       219 222       +3
Josh Ross       229 225       -4
Cameron McGrone       225 228       +3
VIPER(!)
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Khaleke Hudson     205 205 220     - +15
Jordan Glasgow   200 210 210 223   +10 - +13
SAFETY
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Tyree Kinnel   200 206 201 215   +6 -5 +14
Josh Metellus     204 199 204     -5 +5
Brad Hawkins       204 213       +9
J'Marick Woods       203 210       +7
Jaylen Kelly-Powell       173 184       +11
Casey Hughes       185 187       +2
Sammy Faustin       190 187       -3
CORNERBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Brandon Watson 188 189 203 200 204 +1 +14 -3 +4
David Long     187 187 198     - +11
Lavert Hill     168 177 181     +9 +4
Ambry Thomas       179 183       +4
Benjamin St-Juste       193 196       +3
Myles Sims       173 183       +10
Vincent Gray       180 184       +4
Gemon Green       175 174       -1
German Green       178 175       -3

Hit THE JUMP fo…

Dude, I have like two jobs here.

Okay you do it.

[Hit THE JUMP if for some excessively optimistic obsessiveness]

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Let's talk about the weights, by position:

Quarterback.

Dylan McCaffrey ain't as gangly anymore and Brandon Peters is up to playing weight but the eye-opener here is Joe Milton at 234 pounds. That's not Cardale Jones (249 lbs on the Chargers) size but it's on the way there.

Running back.

You all saw the jacked photo of Higdon to make his 12 new pounds the most believable on the roster. Somehow Chris Evans is pacing ahead still, up to 216. O'Maury Samuels is over 200, and Michael Barrett, if he sticks at RB, is immediately the largest running back on the roster.

Receiver.

Big gains for last year's crop (except Oliver Martin) give Michigan three Big Ten-sized receivers where last year they had none. Tarik Black's 9 pounds are the most encouraging because he probably lost a lot of weight while holed up last year, and he was pretty spindly last year.

Tight end.

Zach Gentry is huuuuge. Eubanks is also well into blocky-catchy size now and if that comes with the associated blocking uptick he might ameliorate the loss of Wheatley. Also Ryan Hayes is listed as a tight end but he's up to 271 already—hoping for four games and a redshirt but it'll be fun to see those four games.

Offensive line.

Huge gains for freshmen becoming redshirt freshmen are normal but these are some big jumps. Joel Honigford is up 20 pounds, Andrew Stueber—despite reports he was up to 340—was listed at 323. Bredeson and Runyan gained 12 pounds each heading into their junior seasons. Also Jaylen Mayfield, who was supposed to be a TE type to hang weight on, is already listed at plausible left tackle playing weight. Filiaga being down 4 is probably a good sign but it's unknown how much of that was shift. Onwenu continues to be a silly guess because you can't weigh an object if the scale is just gravitationally sucked into it.*

Note: Paea has been working with the offensive line but he's still a DL to the rosters. He's also up to 296.

Defensive line.

Again the second-year players all got thicc. Paea, DIB and Jeter are all up near or past (in Jeter's case) 300 pouinds after 20+ gains. Kwity Paye's jump to 260 was something we heard about in spring, but Luigi Vilain's leap is probably more encouraging because his injury was still holding him back last spring. Carlo Kemp also put some proof to his spring hype by coming in at about the same size as Gary. Aubrey Solomon losing 10 pounds is not discouraging but I don't remember him carrying much bad weight. Mone at 335 is terrifying but also corroborates the spring chatter that he's topping out as more immovable object than unstoppable force.

Linebacker and Viper(!).

Uche as the second-heaviest linebacker on the roster  is something I didn't think I'd be seeing and probably good for him. Gil's 11 pounds are a great sign since his issue was size; Devin Bush's 11 pounds are probably something to keep the NFL from getting squirrely about a 220-pound doom squirrel. Surprised to see Singleton and Ross didn't gain that much but Brown likes them small.

Both Vipers are a lot bigger, about the size now that Bush was last year. Khaleke put proof to that in photos; Glasgow moved to Viper from strong safety and if he was able to play with that much more weight it's a good thing he did.

Safety.

All eyes are on JKP's tiny waist, which grew a few sizes but is still just 184—that was always a 2019 growth chart and he's on pace. Tyree Kinnel is the third guy lighting up Instagram with glistening new biceps at the beginning of fall and that's showing.

Cornerback.

David Long lost last season's chance to grow from his 2016 injury and he caught up—198 should be about his perfect size. Myles Sims is up to 183 which tracks with our belief he'll be the most likely freshman to be a true sophomore by this time next year.

Special teams.

I didn't put it on the chart but punter Brad Robbins is the biggest gainer on the team, up to 206 from 181. All 25 pounds are in his leg of course.

* You can take a snapshot of the event horizon but that won't be its current weight just the weight it shows when time stops.

This sounds like a lot of meat for the meat god.

Wanna hear about some walk-ons?

Just plausibly left-tackle shaped things please.

Freshman OL Griffin Korican is 6-6/305. Greg Robinson (NNTGERG) is down 8 pounds and to 6-6/280 so that's probably not happening. Dan Jokisch is up 28 pounds.

Is he 6-6?

He's 6-4 and that puts him at 279.

279 is like Michigan State tackle-sized.

Jess Speight is now 6-4/302. Presumably none of that is chicken fat.

Don't you have a 6-8 tight end you can put protein shakes into?

Carter Selzer is 6-8 and gained 12 pounds. He's a RS sophomore.

I'm listening.

He's now 234.

Height(!) Changes

These guys are all an inch taller than they were last year: Zach Gentry is now listed at 6-8. Deron Irving-Bey is 6-5. Devin Gil is 6-2. Ronnie Bell is 6-1. Casey Hughes the Utah transfer is 6-0 despite being 5-11 and 22 years old. Jon Runyan is 6-5.

6-5, that's big enough to play tackle!

You know people don't actually grow…

His dad is 6-10 or something it's happening

Number Changes

Tru Wilson is now 24 instead of "let's screw with Carl Grapentine" 27. Jacob West is #15 and a quarterback. Josh Uche is now #6 instead of #35! That's huge.

Huge! … Why is this huge?

Victor Hobson, David Bowens, Prescott Burgess, Paul Goebel as a junior in 1920…

Oh so roster overanalysis isn't just a once a year thing.

Not on the Roster:

Ran out of eligibility: Mason Cole, Mo Hurst, Mike McCray, Garrett Moores, Mo Hurst

You said Mo Hurst twice.

That second one was a reflexive sigh.

Oh. Transferred (you knew this) or left the program: Drake Harris (WMU), Ian Bunting, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Kekoa Crawford, Kareem Walker, Alex Malzone, Ja'Raymond Hall, Ty Wheatley Jr., Mo Ways, Wilton Speight.

Walk-ons not returned: Alex Kaminski, Austin Brenner, Brian Chu, Joe Beneducci, Nick Volk, Cheyenn Robertson, Ryan Tice, Conner Edmonds, Eric Tim, Evan Latham, Sean Fitzgerald, James "Doug" Foug.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO…..

They changed the rule.

….OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

They changed the rule! No more Foug'ing; no more Foug.

Any new walk-ons other than Korican catch your eye?

Jeff George Jr. and Berkeley Edwards both grad transferred in. There's a Kyle Grady.

As in Kelvin and Kevin?

No.

Freshman Numbers

 

Player Pos # Deep Significance
Joe Milton QB 5 Wangler! Also Tate.
Michael Barrett ATH 6 Softens the blow of losing both Kareem and Wheatley Jr at the same time.
Christian Turner RB 28 Fitz Toussaint shout-out
Hassan Haskins RB 25 Good RB number. Harlan Hukleby, Jon Vaughn, Rob Lytle for a year
Ben VanSumeren FB 20 Big Hart?
Ronnie Bell WR 8 Haven't had a good Avant YMRMFSPA lately.
Ryan Hayes TE 60 You sure you're a tight end?
Luke Schoonmaker TE 89 Ian Bunting did not leave because I kept yelling "Pitch it to Breaston" at him where did you hear that?
Mustapha Muhammad TE 85 Obviously went Kogering.
Jalen Mayfield OL 73 Dufektion.
Aidan Hutchinson DL 97 Hi dad.
Julius Welschof DL 96 The Sechsundneunzigiest zahl.
Taylor Upshaw SDE 91 Honoring Tom Seabron
Cameron McGrone LB 44 Swett!
Myles Sims CB 6 Like two Marlin Jacksons
Casey Hughes DB 35 Don Dufek, Tom Darden
Gemon Green DB 9 Marlin Jackson times three!
German Green DB 13 Marlin Jackson plus ten!
Vincent Gray DB 31 Marlin Jackson AND Braylon Edwards
Sammy Faustin DB 17 Dwight and Ivan Hicks, Otis Williams...guy knows his safeties
Jake Moody K 13 Why not 3?

Errata

Jared Wangler has moved to fullback. How's that transition going?

image

Evidently he's embracing it.

What does it all mean?

We're gonna be awesome!

Comments

Don

August 3rd, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^

It’s odd that the skinny RB who conventional wisdom said was too slight to stand up to whole-game punishment is 14 lbs heavier than the guy who’s supposedly the tougher, more physical runner.

TrueBlue2003

August 4th, 2018 at 2:09 AM ^

Pretty sure Higdon is very short.  He looked about 3 inches shorter than Kinnel at media days in photos and Kinnel can't be 6 feet tall.

I thought Evans was pretty short though too, but you're right that that must be the difference.

That was easily the biggest shock to me about this roster: that Evans is the second biggest RB on the team.

AC1997

August 4th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^

Seth - a few thoughts I would love to hear your opinion about....

  • What's the deal with Oliver Martin having the same jersey as Shea?  Camp battle to see who keeps it or something more?
  • For all the talk about Higdon getting bigger, he's listed as the same size as Long and Watson. Which of their measurables is the most BS?
  • No mention of walkon QB Sessa and his 6'8" 210 pound frame?
  • I didn't think I would see the day when Bredeson was heavier than JBB.  I am not sure how excited to be about that.

Seth

August 5th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^

  1. Harbaugh's deal with jerseys is you take whatever number you want and the first guy to earn his way onto the field gets to keep it. If Patterson still doesn't have the whole playbook mastered by the last week of fall and Martin leaps to the top of the slot pile it's possible that Shea will have to go with a different number. Otherwise Martin will.
  2. Higdon is about 5-10 (I've stood next to him a couple times because we tend to arrive at Crisler about the same time for basketball games and end up in the same jam of people waiting to get our tickets scanned). From photos of the group Watson and Lavert are about the same height and Long is an inch taller than them. I would guess Long is 5-11 and the other two are 5-10. The kids all tower over those guys. Ben St-Juste looks like a stork.
  3. I couldn't go into all the walk-ons. Tackle was interesting so I included plausible tackles. Also offensive lineman is the most likely place for a walk-on to emerge since you can't really know what you have in most guys until they've been three years in a college weight-training system, and in-play intelligence is more important than pure physical ability.
  4. That's not surprising at all. JBB is built like an OT but he's lean. Bredeson is a really big dude and could keep getting even stronger. It feels like he's been around forever because he started in 2016 but remember Bredeson is just a true junior. He can't buy a beer until next February. Most offensive linemen don't get close to their playing weight until about the age Bredeson is now.

ch1townma1ze

August 4th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

Would love to see the ht change column in the same chart as the weight change. Perhaps develop a ht to mass ratio number that probably doesn’t mean much more than over analyzing overanalysis #xft = ft # x their fake 40 time improvements which can translate to Force in Newtons right? 

Too much ...? :)