Fall Roster Overanalysis
EVENT REMINDER:
FOOTBALL EVE 2018, hosted by Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending, will be at 6:00 PM on Thursday, August 30, at 327 E. Hoover, Ann Arbor—the same place as last year. There will be Scratch BBQ and Catering. There will be beer. There will be "OMIGOD COLLEGE FOOTBALL" on TV.
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Don't look too closely at the video or the new weights or you'll realize you're being a little bit lied to. Doesn't matter, we've got PHONEBOOKS so let's OVERANALYZE them as is TRADITION around these PARTS! Steve?
Can I help?
Yes.
Chart?
Yes.
WEIGHT GAIN 2000 AND 18 THOUSAND!
We had something new this spring: an incoming freshman roster. That seemed to be coming from the players themselves since they didn't match any of the services. Anyway we have that to compare with the new bodies. The rules:
- All weight gain is muscle
- All weight lost was excess fat
- No change means the player replaced excess fat with more muscle.
QUARTERBACK | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Shea Patterson | 200 | 203 | 205 | +3 | +2 | ||||
Brandon Peters | 216 | 220 | 230 | +4 | +10 | ||||
Dylan McCaffrey | 199 | 217 | +18 | ||||||
Joe Milton | 220 | 234 | +14 | ||||||
RUNNING BACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Karan Higdon | 190 | 189 | 190 | 202 | -1 | +1 | +12 | ||
Chris Evans | 200 | 206 | 216 | +6 | +10 | ||||
Tru Wilson | 190 | 200 | 202 | +10 | +2 | ||||
O'Maury Samuels | 192 | 205 | +13 | ||||||
Kurt Taylor | 194 | 195 | +1 | ||||||
Christian Turner | 185 | 200 | +15 | ||||||
Hassan Haskins | 207 | 212 | +5 | ||||||
Michael Barrett | 215 | 224 | +9 | ||||||
FULLBACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Jared Wangler | 219 | 230 | 229 | 240 | 240 | +11 | -1 | +11 | - |
Ben Mason | 251 | 254 | +3 | ||||||
Ben VanSumeren | 232 | 236 | +4 | ||||||
SLOT RECEIVER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Grant Perry | 185 | 196 | 191 | 195 | +11 | -5 | +4 | ||
Eddie McDoom | 180 | 181 | 187 | +1 | +6 | ||||
Nate Schoenle | 185 | 192 | 202 | +7 | +10 | ||||
Oliver Martin | 198 | 200 | +2 | ||||||
WIDE RECEIVER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Donovan Peoples-Jones | 199 | 208 | +9 | ||||||
Tarik Black | 206 | 215 | +9 | ||||||
Nico Collins | 206 | 218 | +12 | ||||||
Ronnie Bell | 174 | 182 | +8 | ||||||
TIGHT END | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Zach Gentry | 230 | 244 | 248 | 262 | +14 | +4 | +14 | ||
Nick Eubanks | 236 | 240 | 252 | +4 | +12 | ||||
Sean McKeon | 240 | 248 | 251 | +8 | +3 | ||||
Ryan Hayes | 262 | 271 | +9 | ||||||
Luke Schoonmaker | 229 | 231 | +2 | ||||||
Mustapha Muhammad | 244 | 245 | +1 | ||||||
OFFENSIVE TACKLE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Juwann Bushell-Beatty | 319 | 319 | 311 | 315 | 318 | - | -8 | +4 | +3 |
Grant Newsome | 280 | 318 | 314 | 318 | +38 | -4 | +4 | ||
Nolan Ulizio | 293 | 291 | 295 | 305 | -2 | +4 | +10 | ||
Jon Runyan Jr. | 275 | 304 | 298 | 310 | +29 | -6 | +12 | ||
James Hudson | 302 | 301 | -1 | ||||||
Andrew Stueber | 314 | 323 | +9 | ||||||
Jalen Mayfield | 275 | 296 | +21 | ||||||
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Stephen Spanellis | 335 | 307 | 300 | -28 | -7 | ||||
Ben Bredeson | 310 | 308 | 320 | -2 | +12 | ||||
Michael Onwenu | 350 | 350 | 350 | - | - | ||||
Andrew Vastardis | 305 | 311 | 317 | +6 | +6 | ||||
Cesar Ruiz | 316 | 319 | +3 | ||||||
Joel Honigford | 275 | 295 | +20 | ||||||
Chuck Filiaga | 345 | 341 | -4 | ||||||
Phillip Paea | 275 | 296 | +21 | ||||||
DEFENSIVE TACKLE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Bryan Mone | 312 | 325 | 310 | 325 | 335 | +13 | -15 | +15 | +10 |
Lawrence Marshall | 241 | 238 | 268 | 285 | 285 | -3 | +30 | +17 | - |
Michael Dwumfour | 300 | 290 | 285 | -10 | -5 | ||||
Aubrey Solomon | 297 | 287 | -10 | ||||||
Deron Irving-Bey | 274 | 294 | +20 | ||||||
Donovan Jeter | 288 | 308 | +20 | ||||||
DEFENSIVE END | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Chase Winovich | 220 | 230 | 245 | 253 | 255 | +10 | +18 | +8 | +2 |
Reuben Jones | 225 | 222 | 245 | 250 | +3 | +23 | +5 | ||
Rashan Gary | 287 | 281 | 283 | -6 | +2 | ||||
Ron Johnson | 245 | 264 | 267 | +19 | +3 | ||||
Carlo Kemp | 255 | 264 | 280 | +9 | +16 | ||||
Luiji Vilain | 242 | 255 | +13 | ||||||
Kwity Paye | 241 | 260 | +19 | ||||||
Taylor Upshaw | 240 | 246 | +6 | ||||||
Aidan Hutchinson | 258 | 268 | +10 | ||||||
Julius Welschof | 253 | 253 | - | ||||||
LINEBACKER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Noah Furbush | 210 | 217 | 238 | 240 | 237 | +7 | +21 | +2 | -3 |
Josh Uche | 217 | 226 | 238 | +9 | +12 | ||||
Devin Bush | 232 | 222 | 233 | -10 | +11 | ||||
Devin Gil | 230 | 220 | 231 | -10 | +11 | ||||
Jordan Anthony | 236 | 245 | +9 | ||||||
Drew Singleton | 219 | 222 | +3 | ||||||
Josh Ross | 229 | 225 | -4 | ||||||
Cameron McGrone | 225 | 228 | +3 | ||||||
VIPER(!) | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Khaleke Hudson | 205 | 205 | 220 | - | +15 | ||||
Jordan Glasgow | 200 | 210 | 210 | 223 | +10 | - | +13 | ||
SAFETY | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Tyree Kinnel | 200 | 206 | 201 | 215 | +6 | -5 | +14 | ||
Josh Metellus | 204 | 199 | 204 | -5 | +5 | ||||
Brad Hawkins | 204 | 213 | +9 | ||||||
J'Marick Woods | 203 | 210 | +7 | ||||||
Jaylen Kelly-Powell | 173 | 184 | +11 | ||||||
Casey Hughes | 185 | 187 | +2 | ||||||
Sammy Faustin | 190 | 187 | -3 | ||||||
CORNERBACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Brandon Watson | 188 | 189 | 203 | 200 | 204 | +1 | +14 | -3 | +4 |
David Long | 187 | 187 | 198 | - | +11 | ||||
Lavert Hill | 168 | 177 | 181 | +9 | +4 | ||||
Ambry Thomas | 179 | 183 | +4 | ||||||
Benjamin St-Juste | 193 | 196 | +3 | ||||||
Myles Sims | 173 | 183 | +10 | ||||||
Vincent Gray | 180 | 184 | +4 | ||||||
Gemon Green | 175 | 174 | -1 | ||||||
German Green | 178 | 175 | -3 |
Hit THE JUMP fo…
Dude, I have like two jobs here.
Okay you do it.
[Hit THE JUMP if for some excessively optimistic obsessiveness]
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Let's talk about the weights, by position:
Quarterback.
Dylan McCaffrey ain't as gangly anymore and Brandon Peters is up to playing weight but the eye-opener here is Joe Milton at 234 pounds. That's not Cardale Jones (249 lbs on the Chargers) size but it's on the way there.
Running back.
You all saw the jacked photo of Higdon to make his 12 new pounds the most believable on the roster. Somehow Chris Evans is pacing ahead still, up to 216. O'Maury Samuels is over 200, and Michael Barrett, if he sticks at RB, is immediately the largest running back on the roster.
Receiver.
Big gains for last year's crop (except Oliver Martin) give Michigan three Big Ten-sized receivers where last year they had none. Tarik Black's 9 pounds are the most encouraging because he probably lost a lot of weight while holed up last year, and he was pretty spindly last year.
Tight end.
Zach Gentry is huuuuge. Eubanks is also well into blocky-catchy size now and if that comes with the associated blocking uptick he might ameliorate the loss of Wheatley. Also Ryan Hayes is listed as a tight end but he's up to 271 already—hoping for four games and a redshirt but it'll be fun to see those four games.
Offensive line.
Huge gains for freshmen becoming redshirt freshmen are normal but these are some big jumps. Joel Honigford is up 20 pounds, Andrew Stueber—despite reports he was up to 340—was listed at 323. Bredeson and Runyan gained 12 pounds each heading into their junior seasons. Also Jaylen Mayfield, who was supposed to be a TE type to hang weight on, is already listed at plausible left tackle playing weight. Filiaga being down 4 is probably a good sign but it's unknown how much of that was shift. Onwenu continues to be a silly guess because you can't weigh an object if the scale is just gravitationally sucked into it.*
Note: Paea has been working with the offensive line but he's still a DL to the rosters. He's also up to 296.
Defensive line.
Again the second-year players all got thicc. Paea, DIB and Jeter are all up near or past (in Jeter's case) 300 pouinds after 20+ gains. Kwity Paye's jump to 260 was something we heard about in spring, but Luigi Vilain's leap is probably more encouraging because his injury was still holding him back last spring. Carlo Kemp also put some proof to his spring hype by coming in at about the same size as Gary. Aubrey Solomon losing 10 pounds is not discouraging but I don't remember him carrying much bad weight. Mone at 335 is terrifying but also corroborates the spring chatter that he's topping out as more immovable object than unstoppable force.
Linebacker and Viper(!).
Uche as the second-heaviest linebacker on the roster is something I didn't think I'd be seeing and probably good for him. Gil's 11 pounds are a great sign since his issue was size; Devin Bush's 11 pounds are probably something to keep the NFL from getting squirrely about a 220-pound doom squirrel. Surprised to see Singleton and Ross didn't gain that much but Brown likes them small.
Both Vipers are a lot bigger, about the size now that Bush was last year. Khaleke put proof to that in photos; Glasgow moved to Viper from strong safety and if he was able to play with that much more weight it's a good thing he did.
Safety.
All eyes are on JKP's tiny waist, which grew a few sizes but is still just 184—that was always a 2019 growth chart and he's on pace. Tyree Kinnel is the third guy lighting up Instagram with glistening new biceps at the beginning of fall and that's showing.
Cornerback.
David Long lost last season's chance to grow from his 2016 injury and he caught up—198 should be about his perfect size. Myles Sims is up to 183 which tracks with our belief he'll be the most likely freshman to be a true sophomore by this time next year.
Special teams.
I didn't put it on the chart but punter Brad Robbins is the biggest gainer on the team, up to 206 from 181. All 25 pounds are in his leg of course.
* You can take a snapshot of the event horizon but that won't be its current weight just the weight it shows when time stops.
This sounds like a lot of meat for the meat god.
Wanna hear about some walk-ons?
Just plausibly left-tackle shaped things please.
Freshman OL Griffin Korican is 6-6/305. Greg Robinson (NNTGERG) is down 8 pounds and to 6-6/280 so that's probably not happening. Dan Jokisch is up 28 pounds.
Is he 6-6?
He's 6-4 and that puts him at 279.
279 is like Michigan State tackle-sized.
Jess Speight is now 6-4/302. Presumably none of that is chicken fat.
Don't you have a 6-8 tight end you can put protein shakes into?
Carter Selzer is 6-8 and gained 12 pounds. He's a RS sophomore.
I'm listening.
He's now 234.
Height(!) Changes
These guys are all an inch taller than they were last year: Zach Gentry is now listed at 6-8. Deron Irving-Bey is 6-5. Devin Gil is 6-2. Ronnie Bell is 6-1. Casey Hughes the Utah transfer is 6-0 despite being 5-11 and 22 years old. Jon Runyan is 6-5.
6-5, that's big enough to play tackle!
You know people don't actually grow…
His dad is 6-10 or something it's happening
Number Changes
Tru Wilson is now 24 instead of "let's screw with Carl Grapentine" 27. Jacob West is #15 and a quarterback. Josh Uche is now #6 instead of #35! That's huge.
Huge! … Why is this huge?
Victor Hobson, David Bowens, Prescott Burgess, Paul Goebel as a junior in 1920…
Oh so roster overanalysis isn't just a once a year thing.
Not on the Roster:
Ran out of eligibility: Mason Cole, Mo Hurst, Mike McCray, Garrett Moores, Mo Hurst
You said Mo Hurst twice.
That second one was a reflexive sigh.
Oh. Transferred (you knew this) or left the program: Drake Harris (WMU), Ian Bunting, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Kekoa Crawford, Kareem Walker, Alex Malzone, Ja'Raymond Hall, Ty Wheatley Jr., Mo Ways, Wilton Speight.
Walk-ons not returned: Alex Kaminski, Austin Brenner, Brian Chu, Joe Beneducci, Nick Volk, Cheyenn Robertson, Ryan Tice, Conner Edmonds, Eric Tim, Evan Latham, Sean Fitzgerald, James "Doug" Foug.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO…..
They changed the rule.
….OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
They changed the rule! No more Foug'ing; no more Foug.
Any new walk-ons other than Korican catch your eye?
Jeff George Jr. and Berkeley Edwards both grad transferred in. There's a Kyle Grady.
As in Kelvin and Kevin?
No.
Freshman Numbers
Player | Pos | # | Deep Significance |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Milton | QB | 5 | Wangler! Also Tate. |
Michael Barrett | ATH | 6 | Softens the blow of losing both Kareem and Wheatley Jr at the same time. |
Christian Turner | RB | 28 | Fitz Toussaint shout-out |
Hassan Haskins | RB | 25 | Good RB number. Harlan Hukleby, Jon Vaughn, Rob Lytle for a year |
Ben VanSumeren | FB | 20 | Big Hart? |
Ronnie Bell | WR | 8 | Haven't had a good Avant YMRMFSPA lately. |
Ryan Hayes | TE | 60 | You sure you're a tight end? |
Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 89 | Ian Bunting did not leave because I kept yelling "Pitch it to Breaston" at him where did you hear that? |
Mustapha Muhammad | TE | 85 | Obviously went Kogering. |
Jalen Mayfield | OL | 73 | Dufektion. |
Aidan Hutchinson | DL | 97 | Hi dad. |
Julius Welschof | DL | 96 | The Sechsundneunzigiest zahl. |
Taylor Upshaw | SDE | 91 | Honoring Tom Seabron |
Cameron McGrone | LB | 44 | Swett! |
Myles Sims | CB | 6 | Like two Marlin Jacksons |
Casey Hughes | DB | 35 | Don Dufek, Tom Darden |
Gemon Green | DB | 9 | Marlin Jackson times three! |
German Green | DB | 13 | Marlin Jackson plus ten! |
Vincent Gray | DB | 31 | Marlin Jackson AND Braylon Edwards |
Sammy Faustin | DB | 17 | Dwight and Ivan Hicks, Otis Williams...guy knows his safeties |
Jake Moody | K | 13 | Why not 3? |
Errata
Jared Wangler has moved to fullback. How's that transition going?
Evidently he's embracing it.
What does it all mean?
We're gonna be awesome!
This has to be one of our bigger teams in recent years. Michael Barrett already 224
August 3rd, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^
It’s odd that the skinny RB who conventional wisdom said was too slight to stand up to whole-game punishment is 14 lbs heavier than the guy who’s supposedly the tougher, more physical runner.
August 4th, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
Yeah that blew my mind too.
Is Higdon like 4-5 inches shorter or something? Could just be a weight distribution thing.
Pretty sure Higdon is very short. He looked about 3 inches shorter than Kinnel at media days in photos and Kinnel can't be 6 feet tall.
I thought Evans was pretty short though too, but you're right that that must be the difference.
That was easily the biggest shock to me about this roster: that Evans is the second biggest RB on the team.
August 4th, 2018 at 12:45 AM ^
Can’t forget Aaron Gibson from Wisconsin who was I’m the vicinity of 400+(!!!).
Mayfield may see the field this year (see what I did there, see?).
Seth - a few thoughts I would love to hear your opinion about....
- What's the deal with Oliver Martin having the same jersey as Shea? Camp battle to see who keeps it or something more?
- For all the talk about Higdon getting bigger, he's listed as the same size as Long and Watson. Which of their measurables is the most BS?
- No mention of walkon QB Sessa and his 6'8" 210 pound frame?
- I didn't think I would see the day when Bredeson was heavier than JBB. I am not sure how excited to be about that.
August 5th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
- Harbaugh's deal with jerseys is you take whatever number you want and the first guy to earn his way onto the field gets to keep it. If Patterson still doesn't have the whole playbook mastered by the last week of fall and Martin leaps to the top of the slot pile it's possible that Shea will have to go with a different number. Otherwise Martin will.
- Higdon is about 5-10 (I've stood next to him a couple times because we tend to arrive at Crisler about the same time for basketball games and end up in the same jam of people waiting to get our tickets scanned). From photos of the group Watson and Lavert are about the same height and Long is an inch taller than them. I would guess Long is 5-11 and the other two are 5-10. The kids all tower over those guys. Ben St-Juste looks like a stork.
- I couldn't go into all the walk-ons. Tackle was interesting so I included plausible tackles. Also offensive lineman is the most likely place for a walk-on to emerge since you can't really know what you have in most guys until they've been three years in a college weight-training system, and in-play intelligence is more important than pure physical ability.
- That's not surprising at all. JBB is built like an OT but he's lean. Bredeson is a really big dude and could keep getting even stronger. It feels like he's been around forever because he started in 2016 but remember Bredeson is just a true junior. He can't buy a beer until next February. Most offensive linemen don't get close to their playing weight until about the age Bredeson is now.
Seth - this seems like the largest avg weight gain this program has seen since y’all started publishing these annual reports. Correct?
August 4th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Mayfield was never a TE type.
August 4th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
Would love to see the ht change column in the same chart as the weight change. Perhaps develop a ht to mass ratio number that probably doesn’t mean much more than over analyzing overanalysis #xft = ft # x their fake 40 time improvements which can translate to Force in Newtons right?
Too much ...? :)
August 4th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
I can not believe that 18-21 year old males gain weight every year. Great news!
Raise your hand if you knew Evans weighed more than Higdon.
Myles Sims at #6
Too young to remember Dave Brown?
http://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/football/fballam/aabrownd.htm
Will miss the former HOTY. (Smiley face)
Doug Foug NOOOOOOOO
I hate all new kickoff rules.
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