Hoops Preview: Indiana
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#44 Michigan (6-2) vs #80 Indiana (4-3) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
WHEN | 12:30 pm ET, Saturday |
LINE | Michigan -8 (KenPom) |
TV |
CBS PBP: Carter Blackburn Analyst: Bill Raftery |
Right: TRADITION IS TRADITION [Bryan Fuller]
THE STAKES
You may have forgotten that Jim Delany, in his infinite wisdom, moved the Big Ten Tournament up a week so it could be played in New York City, the geographic center of the conference. This explains why Michigan is playing two conference games in early December, beginning with Saturday afternoon's tilt against Indiana.
Both teams are coming off losses to Carolina powers and could use a pick-me-up, especially one that counts towards the conference win tally.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Josh Newkirk | Sr. | 6'1, 195 | 57 | 19 | 110 | No | |||||||||||
Good outside shooter, turnover issues. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Aljami Durham | Fr. | 6'4, 175 | 67 | 14 | 130 | No | |||||||||||
Low-usage spot-up shooter, promising defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Robert Johnson | Sr. | 6'3, 195 | 83 | 20 | 112 | No | |||||||||||
Athletic slasher and efficient catch-and-shoot player. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 13 | Juwan Morgan | Jr. | 6'7, 230 | 65 | 22 | 127 | Yes | |||||||||||
Excellent around hoop on both offense and defense. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 20 | De'ron Davis | So. | 6'10, 249 | 53 | 23 | 128 | Very | |||||||||||
Really tough to stop in post. Bad FT shooter and foul-prone defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 11 | Devonte Green | So. | 6'3, 186 | 60 | 22 | 92 | No | |||||||||||
Combo guard shooting well from outside, struggling with turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Freddie McSwain | Sr. | 6'6, 220 | 31 | 26 | 95 | Very | |||||||||||
Good post defender and shot-blocker, lacks offensive skill. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 30 | Collin Hartman | Sr. | 6'7, 220 | 8 | 18 | 187 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Sharpshooter just getting back from another knee injury. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Despite the photo gracing the top of this post, Indiana has a new man in charge: Archie Miller, whose Dayton squads that were consistently excellent on defense. His first Hoosier squad is, uh, not that; they're 4-3, 217th in adjusted defense, and already have suffered blowout losses to Seton Hall (alright) and Indiana State (woof). This is looking like a reset year.
That said, IU still boasts plenty of talent, and they nearly went wire-to-wire with Duke on Wednesday before a very late flurry by the Blue Devils got the final margin to ten.
The matchup of the game is at center, where Moe Wagner will do battle with talented IU sophomore De'Ron Davis. This could be one of those duels in which neither can stop the other; Davis is the type of burly, hyper-efficient post scorer (76% on twos) that often gives Wagner trouble, while Wagner's diverse game should give the foul-prone Davis problems on the other end. The outcome could easily come down to which of these two can stay on the floor the longest.
Another matchup of great import is power forward Juwan Morgan against either Duncan Robinson or Charles Matthews. Morgan is an athletic putback machine who draws a lot of fouls; keeping him off the offensive boards is going to be one of M's top priorities.
The rest of the lineup isn't as intimidating as in years past. Wing Robert Johnson is an efficient inside-outside scorer with plenty of apparent talent, but he's yet to take on a star-level load. (He'll still be a tough cover for, say, Robinson or MAAR.) Senior Josh Newkirk is a point guard by default; he's mostly out there for his outside shooting and defense, and he struggles to avoid turnovers as a distributor. Freshman guard Aljami Durham is an efficient offensive player in a small role; he's been a very strong defender so far.
When Davis needs a breather or gets into foul trouble, Freddie McSwain provides a lot of energy and really good rebounding and shot-blocking numbers for a 6'6" big man. He doesn't provide Davis's offensive punch, however, even though he uses a high volume of possessions—turnovers and free throw shooting are significant negatives. Stretch forward Collin Hartman, a career 40% three-point shooter, is just getting back into the mix after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. Sophomore combo guard Devonte Green is a decent outside shooter who's struggled inside the arc.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
This looks like a lot of recent IU/Michigan matchups. Both teams boast strong offenses; Michigan is less turnover-prone while IU has better rebounders. Neither team has a particularly formidable defense, though the Hoosiers are especially bad in that regard this year.
Both teams have suffered from terrible three-point numbers: both are making about a third of their three-point attempts while allowing makes at a 41% clip on the other end. Michigan appears to be suffering from far worse thluck*, however; while M has an enormous gap of attempts on their opponents, IU actually takes fewer three-pointers than their foes.
Unlike the relatively high-paced UNC affair, this should be a relative slog; both teams play at a low tempo.
[*three-point luck, if you're not a podcast listener]
THE KEYS
Win the post fight. I expect both De'Ron Davis and Moe Wagner to score with great efficiency and struggle with foul trouble. If either can avoid the latter, that may make the difference all on its own. If that doesn't happen, the better player between Freddie McSwain and Jon Teske could be the decider; Teske has a size and skill advantage, McSwain has experience and athleticism on his side. Meanwhile, somebody—probably Charles Matthews—is going to have to keep Juwan Morgan off the boards, where he excels at getting garbage buckets.
Get Robinson going. Michigan might be able to hide Robinson on defense against low-usage freshman Aljimi Durham. Defense hasn't been his only problem, however; against athletic teams, he's had a tough time getting open so his shot can make up for his defensive shortcomings. Robinson has to find a way to get those shots; it was clear in the UNC game that while Isaiah Livers is talented, he's not ready to get big minutes in these games without making the same type of mistakes that are getting Robinson on the bench in the first place.
Settle on a rotation. John Beilein hasn't had nearly as much time as usual before Big Ten season to settle on a group of eight or nine rotation player. He deployed an 11-man rotation against UNC even before blowout time and Michigan suffered for it. I'd like to see Brooks/Simpson at point guard until Jaaron Simmons shows something more against even a bad opponent; I'd also like to see Jordan Poole soak up Ibi Watson's minutes. Less lineup tinkering should hopefully lead to fewer defensive lapses.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 8.
This is a get-right game for Michigan on offense, and Wagner is poised to go off if he can stay on the floor. He and Teske should do enough to get the win with some help from an above-average outside shooting game against IU's poor perimeter defense.
ELSEWHERE
December 1st, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^
that is all.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^
Just realized that original of that with Louis CK is much less funny now
December 1st, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
I realized that as I clicked "post". Oh well...
December 1st, 2017 at 2:35 PM ^
Yours is still good.
December 2nd, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 3:26 PM ^
weird. I had no idea who Louis CK was before his scandal and I still really don't. Need to hit Wikipedia.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
don't go insulting idiots...
December 1st, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^
This looked like a safe win until IU took Duke to the wire and we got curbstomped.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:37 PM ^
this game could be a toss-up @ IU
December 1st, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
This will be a good measure of where Michigan is at. Going to the Dance requires winning games like this. Blue still searching for an answer at point guard.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
Go Blue.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:20 PM ^
It is the winter of the year 2075. An elderly Ace Anbender feebly waves his cane in the general direction of the virtual "Publish" button. A photo of Tom Crean adjusting his pants appears on the mgoblog.com front page.
December 1st, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
gif could not possibly look worse for Crean. Out of context, it looks he should be arrested for the conduct.
December 1st, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 5:24 PM ^
December 2nd, 2017 at 8:26 AM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^
Looking forward to Bill Raftery already having an opportunity to call a Michigan game in early December. Best in the biz. Go Blue!!!
December 1st, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^
We now go to Mr. Delany for a counterpoint...
December 1st, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 2:56 PM ^
December 2nd, 2017 at 11:34 AM ^
Really like Livers. Hope he continues to develop and I'll be happy. Future star, imo.
December 1st, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
your join dates implies you're not new here; and yet...
/s aside, you are not wrong.
December 1st, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^
December 1st, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^
more minutes.
He's physically much more capable of keeping Morgan off the boards and out of the paint. He did struggle with the skill of Maye on Wednesday but I don't think Morgan has the moves and savvy that Maye does. Livers job should be much more straightforward (although he did give up a bad OREB to LSU by turning his head and losing his man, but we'll see if he's learning).
Hartman is a good matchup for Robinson, but I don't think there's any way we want to see him on Durham. He's a 6'4 slasher that has a really good A:TO ratio and super high FT rate. In other words, he'll dribble circles around Robinson. They would exploit that matchup badly if we tried to put Robinson on him.
December 1st, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
Well, our boys got a dose of reality on the road vs UNC. They now have the knowledge of where they are currently at vs a great team.
This is a huge game for this team. Nothing is a must win this early, but this almost feels like a must win game. Both IU and Michigan are projected to finish near the middle of the pack in the B1G, which won't be good for an NCAAT spot.
Michigan needs to get momentum going into this tough stretch, and we need to win this home game against a very similar ranked IU team. 8 points is a big spread. I hope Michigan can win, and I don't care by what margin of victory.
December 1st, 2017 at 11:52 PM ^
December 2nd, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
Aren't Sean Miller's days at Arizona numbered? His asst and team are in the FBI probe of Pay to Play athletes with Adidas, like Rick Pitino at Louisville. Isnt it just a matter of time?
Perhaps Archie is not big enough a coach to follow his brother into 100 grand recruit payouts?
December 2nd, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^
Where is the liveblog,
we do it for football games, why not for basketball games?
is it because its December? or because only football games have enough followers?
Will liveblog for basketball resume in January?
December 2nd, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^
Where is the liveblog,
we do it for football games, why not for basketball games?
is it because its December? or because only football games have enough followers?
Will liveblog for basketball resume in January?
December 2nd, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^
Where is the liveblog,
we do it for football games, why not for basketball games?
is it because its December? or because only football games have enough followers?
Will liveblog for basketball resume in January?
December 2nd, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^
Where is the liveblog,
we do it for football games, why not for basketball games?
is it because its December? or because only football games have enough followers?
Will liveblog for basketball resume in January?
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