Will rushing yards improve this year?
After reading this article on MLive about our OL this upcoming season I began to wonder how our rushing output could change. It's the offseason so let's do what we do best, speculate.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2017/05/from_mason_cole_to_ce…
The team is entering into year 3 of Harbaugh and I was curious how his previous coaching stops would compare.
Stanford Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh
2007 - 1134 yards
2008 - 2385 yards
2009 - 2837 yards
2010 - 2779 yards
San Francisco Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh
2011 - 2044 yards
2012 - 2491 yards
2013 - 2201 yards
2014 - 2176 yards
Michigan Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh
2015 - 2057 yards
2016 - 2768 yards
As you can see by the numbers, Harbaugh's 2009 Stanford team had the best output at 2837 yards. Obviously the NFL game is a little different, but I included those numbers for those curious of the rushing trend in San Fran.
With the addition of Frey and tidbits that Michigan is going to run more spread looks, how much of an improvement can we really expect in terms of total rushing yards? Or should we just expect better pass protection and cleaner holes for the RBs? The current projections of the OL are LT Cole - LG Bredeson - C Kugler/Ruiz - RG Onwenu - RT Runyan/JBB
SPECULATE
On the other hand, if the OLine does improve, I'm inclined to say yes.
OL play will be much better with the run, but will be worse in pass prot. Overall, an improvement though.
Based on this, I see our rushing yards going up, a lot of short passes to the outside or WR end-arounds to take advantage of our WR skillsets (also adding to the rushing yards), and a lot of screen passes to mitigate pass prot.
You are going off a pretty big number to start. Lots of that got racked up, I expect, as we ran the ball in the second half of blowouts. Be great to be well over 200 yards a game again.
at least to me, isn't so much is the amount of rushing yards going to improve, but rather can they successfully run the ball against the better teams. They struggled quite a bit against Wisky, Iowa, OSU and FSU to run the ball.
Exactly, season totals don't mean shit to me. What can they do against the good teams is what drives me crazy on Saturdays in the Fall. Recently, they are good at getting their asses kicked.
numbers were the year before and after he was coaching.
Stanford before Harbaugh
2005 - 1015 yards
2006 - 781 yards
Stanford after Harbaugh
2011 - 2738 yards
2012 - 2440 yards
2013 - 2904 yards
Michigan before Harbaugh
2012 - 2389 yards
2013 - 1634 yards
2014 - 1954 yards
unless every player is the same on offense, every player of your oppostion is the same, and ever opponent is the same for all years being compared, how can you make a conclusion that past results indicate future success? There are different variable sever year. Please explain it to me because I'm not smart.
2005 - 1015 yards
2006 - 781 yards
Stanford after Harbaugh
2011 - 2738 yards
2012 - 2440 yards
2013 - 2904 yards
I dont know what to tell you.
You could never compare coaches. We'll never know if Harbaugh is a better coach than any other, because they are not at Michigan coaching the exact same players and playing against the exact same opponents.
if there were small variances...but if you double your running production the year before with maybe 1 change on the O-line..at some point you have to recgonize that one coach is better because you have to assume that taking the same X percentage of players and doubling a win total is reasonable enough to say the coach was the difference.
Here's something where I think we need to look at the "bump" in production caused under Harbaugh, so if you tack on the final years of Hoke, you get this trend:
2013 - 1634 yards
2014 - 1957 yards (roughly 16% improvement from 2013, but 5-7)
2015 - 2057 yards (roughly 4%, but obviously new coach, so whatever)
2016 - 2768 yards (roughly 25% improvement in year 2)
So, if I had to guess, 2017 - barring OL issues - might see another increase, but I doubt such a dramatic one.
YES!! I think Evans will be even better this year and hoping Kareem Walker will show us why he was one of the top backs in the country out of high school. Greater home run threats with our speed so really looking forward to a more Michigan-like running game this year. I have faith that our O Line will be better than average by mid season.
GO BLUE!!
I really hope so
Doubt it due to my low expecations for the line. Seems like Evans could be the best back we've had in a while though, so that could help.
We'll see soon enough how good the featured back is against the Florida defense. It usually isn't that bad either so I hope all of your guy's hype with Evans is true. I think he's a shifty and fast kid but I don't think he is a top 5 (running back) even in the B1G. Hopefully I'm wrong.
It will be better. I think the line will be as good or better than last year and Evans will have a breakout season.
Maybe.
I think the line will be better. Although there is less experience than last season, I think it will be a case of addition by subtraction. It also sounds like some of the guys in the lead for starting spots have better run blocking skills than pass blocking (Onwenu, Bredeson, Runyan).
Better
Yards per attempt
Yards in wins vs losses
Yards in 4 th quarter
Other ways to reflect whether run the ball better
2015
Average yds per rush - 4.2
TDS - 27
Yards in losses
Utah - 29 carries for 76yds
MSU - 33 carries for 62yds
OSU - 25 carries for 57yds
2016
Average yds per rush - 4.8
TDS - 41
Yards in losses
Iowa - 35 carries for 98yds
OSU - 43 carries for 91yds
FSU - 36 carries for 89yds
Should probably wait for more comments to see the trend either positive or negative, but my prediction is are rushing yards go up. I think Evans is the real deal, but unlike some I think Issac is the one to have the beakout year. He needs to get more touches, but he is the type of back who can wear defenses down. If one of our QBs could get a better down field touch we really should destroy teams. Harbaugh runs play after play to set up the play action and then Speight misses it. You can see how pissed Harbaugh gets because it is there all day. Hit one in the Iowa game and season is different. I think we run the ball more this season because we have the line for it. Our offense will be better this year and the season will go as the defensive backfield goes IMO.
I mean they could be up or down depending on if Michigan chooses to run or throw for 1,000 yards against Rutgers.
I'm guessing the numbers are similar to last year if not down a bit. Not a whole lot of opportunity to go up from last year's 200+ yards per game unless they throw the ball fewer times per game. I'd expect more passing attempts with second year starter Air Wilton and his merry bunch of Tacopants-sized wideouts.
improvement when we play good defenses. Our rushing game was garbage against Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, and FSU last year. Basically anytime we played a defense with a pulse.
The running game wasn't great against IU either. Smith broke a couple big ones and O'Korn had the 30 yard scramble to pump up the YPC.
is by large a mirage. They weren't very good against good defense. They went under 100 yards against OSU, FSU and Iowa. They went over 100 yards against Wisconsin but their ypc is 3.0 which is awful. They struggled against UCF with under 3.0 ypc. Only good defensive team they did well was against Colorado which is over 4.0 ypc.
Most of their yardages were against bad defense especially Rutgers which they ran over 400 yards. Ran for over 200 yards against Indiana, Maryland, Hawaii and PSU. PSU was without 8 of their 11 starters(plus starting LB was ejected by a dumbass rule). Not exactly murder's row.
Yards goes down (already a high number), but efficiency will be up. Passing yards are going to go way up though.
Yes, we will have more rushing yards.
1. This year's backs are better than last year. Deveon was solid runner and a great pass blocker, but he was not a home run threat. Evans, Higdon and Walker are better runners.
2. The wide receivers will be worse. We are losing two NFL wide receivers and are gaining very athletic freshmen. Freshmen WR are not great. I'm expecting there will be more running plays called to compensate for this.
3. The offensive line should be better than last years group. I'm hoping.
In summary, more yards per play + more running plays called = more season rushing yards.
I think we'll see improvements with the additon several players or players with more prominent roles, like the RB's you mentioned.
Magnusun, Kalis and Braden played a lot of football for UM but never seemed live up to lofty recruiting rankings. I think this year's offensive line will have a much higher upside.
I'm not expecting too much drop off in terms of receiving production from the wr's. Last year Darboh and Chesson were:
Darboh - 57 catches, 862 yds, 7 td
Chesson - 35 catches, 500 yds, 2 td
Chesson didn't even average 3 catches a game!! I don't know if it will be just 2 players, maybe it ends up being 3 or 4, but if the production from the starting wr's in 2017doesn't match or come down close to matching what Darboh and Chesson did, then UM's passing offense will probably be pretty poor.
The area where I think we'll really miss Darboh and Chesson is their blocking in the run game.
There are a number of ways to improve rushing performance. The most obvious is to improve O-line blocking. Another way is to give more carries to a back who is able to create yardage. Yet another way is a quick passing spread attack that keeps the linebackers off the line of scrimmage. I am hopeful that we will see all three of these in 2017. Obviously, we will have to see about the blocking (I am hopeful). But more carries to Evans can only help (I like Higdon alot too), and an NFL spread passing scheme can really open up running lanes. It will be interesting, for sure.
2ea - 1,000yd rushers
at computing game totals and made a dumb comment.
Does anyone know of a college I could attend that doesn't require Algebra?
we are a passing team now
You pass to run the ball. Trust me, it's going to work.
Expect high variance. I like Kugler from what I've seen, have a feeling we'll be asking why he didn't play last year. Cole will be good and Bredeson average. I'd expect better from left side runs, given improved RB potential. Right side is going to be a mix of Onwenu pummeling and opening huge holes and missing his assignment or bouncing off his guy (or being late off the ball) and getting the play submarined. RT is an unknown, but the expectation should be below average. A lot of the time the tackle's job is either blocking down or walling off the DE, which isn't that difficult against bad or mediocre teams.
Similar high variance story - though for different reasons - for DBs, WRs, TEs.
we'll be +337 yards over last year's production.
Sorry, I'm too busy to show my work.
This year we'll have more diversity in our running attack. Adjusting to what works or not, and keeping opponents off guard.