OT: Sault Ste. Marie is the linchpin of the US economy, who knew?
So apparently the single most important asset in the US economy is the 48 year old Poe Lock in Sault Ste. Marie. If it has to shut down for any significant amount of time, the entire economy, especially in the midwest, is basically fucked.
I'm not usually a fear-monger, but I had no idea that lock was so damn important, and I've lived in Michigan my entire life.
It's a freep article so I'll just copy the most important bits.
A U.S. Department of Homeland Security report indicates a 6-month shutdown of the Poe Lock in Sault Ste. Marie, if one occurred, would plunge the nation into recession, closing factories and mines, halting auto and appliance production in the U.S. for most of a year and result in the loss of some 11 million jobs across the nation.
Even the Army Corps, which operates and maintains the Soo Locks, has acknowledged that the 48-year-old Poe is in need of major upgrades, which have been limited by funding constraints. The Corps is “slowly overhauling components” of the lock each year, but, as Corps spokeswoman Lynn Rose told the Free Press some months ago, “As the lock ages, the probabilities of failure increase.”
Previous studies done by the Corps have concluded that a 30-day closure of the Poe could have an economic impact of $160 million. But the Homeland Security report — which had been previously available to some industry insiders in draft form, but kept secret from the public — went much further, outlining economic and employment impacts across the country, and even into Canada and Mexico, calling the Poe, “the Achilles’ heel of the North American industrial economy.”
Such a long-term event, the report said, would send an economic tidal wave crashing across U.S. manufacturing. Iron ore mining would virtually stop and production of steel-related items — from cars and construction and equipment, to railcars and appliances — would halt, with millions losing work until the problem was resolved and work recommenced, which would likely that months more.
“In terms of an impact to the North American economy,” the authors wrote, “it is hard to conceive of a single asset more consequential than the Poe Lock.”
EDIT: Added content...
More ominously, for even any short-term closure, it concluded that any plans to react — by using trucks or rail, for instance, to move iron ore — would almost certainly fail.
In past studies, there have been suggestions that the iron ore might be moved by truck or by rail, but the Homeland Security report makes clear that each of the thousand-footers carries the equivalent of seven trains with 100 rail cars each or about 3,000 trucks — a volume that would be impossible to ship overland, even if steel mills were equipped to take the iron ore by road or by rail, which they are not.
Nobody is saying anyone would decide to shut down the lock. But nobody thought the Chernobyl plant would explode, until it did.
just gave ISIS a new target.
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and since we all carry guns up da UP, we'd shoot 'em. holy wah, end of threat.
Walked around the locks, took our own boat through all the time, etc.
Security was still relatively relaxed before 9/11.
Mom & grandparents always told stories of how locked down it was (barrage balloons et.) during WW2.
Still visit occasionally and own property along the Canadian border just down the river.
Best way to see a lock up close is to paddle a kayak through the Canadian lock.
sidenote:
I think is 0% chance trucks & railroads could even come close to compensating for a loss of the Poe lock, unless you want the highways and rail lines to do nothing but transport grain & ore 24/7.
We could limp along during a national emergency, but the economic costs would be profound.
So you're basically saying this is a Poe Lock joke?
Absolutely right. Just a separate point in case anyone is wondering about it (I can't resist chiming in because my students ask about it all the time): Chernobyl was not a nuclear explosion in the sense of a nuclear bomb going off. There were explosions, but nothing like the engineered nuclear detonation that you get from a nuclear weapon. Nuclear power plants can't explode like nuclear bombs.
and mostly the fishing in the St. Mary's rapids...
I lived in the Sault for about 6 months (don't ask). If that city contains the lynch pin of our national economy, we're screwed. It amazes me that anyone can find anyone else to mate with up there...
Dude, the list of bars you just sent includes "The Satisfied Frog" and "Back Door Inc." I mean, NTTAWT and all, but it's kind of early...
First strip bar I went to in my life was Studio X (some number I can't remember) in Sault Canada. Sault Canada makes it's Michigan counterpart seem like a one stop light town. Much better...
I LOVE splitting wood, smoking, and boobs. What the hell is not to like there???
and meth addiction would be my guess.
I'm guessing you spent most of your time up there douching.
Nuthin' wrong with the UP.... You just need to adjust expectations a little.
I work in the auto industry. Parts from my plant end up in just about every RWD based vehicle manufactured in North America. There's a machine in my plant that every part goes down/has a manufacturing process with it. If that one machine went down it would potentially shut down the North American (and Korean) Auto Industry(ies). 0 pickup truck production.
It's not the whole economy, but it's billions of dollars upstream from us. I'm sure there are tons of things like that.
You mean the reliability of my RWD Toyota Tacoma is in the hands of a Michigan Man?!?!
I feel better.
My role is split by customer and I don't handle Toyota. And we make a specific type of part only, so the overall reliability isn't up to us (our parts aren't in, say engines, so if your engine blows it's not our fault). But if it makes you feel better, yes, you're in good hands.
The two other significant points of failure in the U.S. supply chain are the Ambassador Bridge and Blue Water Bridge. Twenty-five percent of all daily trade with Canada (representing $500M PER DAY) crosses the former; and about fifteen percent crosses the latter. That's why completion of the New International Trade Crossing is so vital.
You mean the completion of the Gordie Howe International Bridge
and trucks.
not as good, much more expensive, but for a short-term band aid it'll work.
The article addresses that point. The steel mills aren't equipped to accept ore by rail or truck, and even if they were we don't have the capacity to do it. Each freighter carries the equivalent of 7 100 car long trains.
we have robust infrastructure of barges that can accept rail stock.
Disclaimer; I am not at all educated on this topic.
How would the barges be able to move the material sourced in and around Lake Superior if the locks were to close?
They're not talking about ALL the locks, only the Poe which is the only one capable of fitting the 1000 foot ships. Most of the fleets have sold off their smaller boats, but the smaller ones would still pass through the other locks.
Thanks. Weren't they all built at the same time though?
They were all built at different times. The Poe was the largest on earth when it was originally constructed (1895?), but it was enlarged to its current size in the 60's.
7 trains to account for one ship is not very many. there are 25,000 locomotives in the US right now. This is not an insurmountable problem.
But many of those are already running at capacity
As XtraMelanin indicated, this would be a bandaid, and isn't ideal, but there really is no reason to try and sensationalize this.
of pants-shitting about things, so if they're concerned it's something to consider.
I'm not going to be adding any additional rations to the bunker, but the article gave me pause to think about just how interconnected and fragile certain aspects of our economy and society really are.
i can tell you i waited for/watched/raced plenty of freight cars loaded to the gills with ore while in da UP. not optimal by any stretch, but do-able in the short term.
Even the CoE can sound the neccessary alarms when they need the money to fund a legitimate project.
In my region much of what was keeping the rail industry at capacity was shipping oil. Many of the farmers have been pissed the last few years because their crops harvests have sat waiting for available trains. That is not a problem currently. Plenty of rail capacity up my way.
agreed. but how many ships pass through those locks every day?
Don't tell terrorists. You know Buckeyes read this blog too.
Also Canadians, who are not to be trusted. You just know they're sitting up there waiting to stike by releasing a tidal wave of poutine, hockey pucks, and caribou on us.
Bastards.
Given obesity rates in Michigan, a tidal wave of poutine may be much more welcome than you think. And if their back-up plan is back bacon, I think Michigan's answer would be "bring it on". A tidal wave of maple syrup? Ditto. At that point, they're pretty much out of food.
Caribou and hockey pucks are a much bigger threat, though. Might need to have them build a wall to keep that shizz out of the Great Lakes State.
I didn't know I lived in Canada. Shit.
Walk down any street in my neighborhood and you will pass a pub serving poutine, a Caribou Coffee and in both they will be watching hockey.
and hockey.... no real opinion on Caribou. What we need to fear is a deluge of Beibers.
not as good as moose, but enjoyable nevertheless. they eat more lichen in many places and are leaner.
excellent fare.
waffles
PLUNDER THE LOCKS!!!!!!