MBB 2015/2016 Preview...The Caris Effect.
This season has been the perfect storm of bad. An untimely transfer, MASSIVE draft attrition and crippling injuries to Walton, Levert and Wilson. It's certainly not a fair swing but the B!G doesn't give a s*** and we are going to have to fight for our lives to finish this year .500. 2015-2016 may be a completely different story. Much of this depends on what Caris Levert does. He has slid from the lottery to the back half of the first round. Making the jump given his foot injury is risky as hell but possible and realistic. Latest Mock Drafts have Caris at #18 http://www.si.com/nba/2015/02/17/nba-draft-big-board-rankings-dangelo-russell-jahlil-okafor or further back.http://www.nbadraft.net/2015mock_draft
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/ (Levert at #29 per ESPN
Here is how I see it.....
Caris will stay because:
1. He will be the B1G POY/ Naismith Candidate and a likely top 10 pick in 2016.
2. Legendary status and true stardom awaits him as a Senior in Ann Arbor.
3. He can finish his degree which is important to his family.
4. He will still only be 21 by next year's draft which is still very young.
5. Added weight/strength in 2016 will help him be a contributor and not just a drafted guy..
6. He has a foot injury that may force his stock down leaving injury concerns. Risky jump.
Caris will go because:
1. Michigan basketball players simply don't stay in school lately.
2. Injury concerns may entice him to strike while the money is there.
3. $1-2 Million dollars a year is a lot of money.
4. He is a truly versatile player that is one of the 20 best available IF HEALTHY.
5. Michigan is not allowed to have nice things.....for very long.
That leaves us with a pair of scenarios......Caris leaves.....or the preferred...Caris Stays.
Here is what Caris does for us: 15ppg 5(rpg) 4(apg) 2(spg) 42%(fg 40%(3s) 81%(ft)
Caris Stays: HOLY DEPTH and VERSATILITY. Thank you Basketball Gods.
Walton(jr) - SPike (sr)
Irvin(jr) - MAAR (so)
Levert (Sr) - Dawkins (so) / Robinson (Rso)
Wilson (Rso) - Chatman (so)
Doyle (so) - Donnal (so) or Beifeldt (5th yr)
*hard to put Robinson in the 2 deep because he is virtually an unknown.
***This scenario gives us 6 versatile wings including Dawkins who may end up being REALLY good. Robinson finds a role likely as a spot up shooter and improves our 3pt%. The bigs get a major talent boost in DJ Wilson and Doyle will be improved. Chatman has a nice skillset along with Donnal but both need MAJOR off-season development to bring it out effectively. Beifeldt is a grinder that is better than we give him credit for. He could add really nice leadership and will get solid minutes in certain matchups. He'd be huge if we had another B1G go down with an injury. This team would be a MAJOR threat to win the B1G if not the favorite. They would also be a shoe-in for the second weekend of the NCAA tourney and likely an ELite 8 team with a Championship ceiling. This team would have a terrific blend of upper and under classmen. This is the lineup we've been waiting for honestly and Caris would be the star to lead us to the promised land. DJ Wilson would be absolutlely huge as well. This team would be OUTSTANDING athletically with 4 great athletes at the wing spots. (MAAR/Dawkins/Walton/Levert) Irvin and Robinson would provide outside scoring and maybe more...hopefully more from Irvin at least. Spike is a very serviceable backup pg. We would have depth at the 4 and 5 spot and DJ Wilson has freakish athletic ability. We haven't had that in a while and Doyle's experience this year is super valuable. Caris would also push the timetable back for Irvin and make a Senior Irvin in 2017 very possible. Donnal shoud be improved and its just hard not to honestly love the thought of this TEAM.
Reasonable predicitons for 2016: 27-5 Overall 14-4 B!G record Top 2 seed in Dance with floor of Sweet 16 and ceiling of National Title.
- Levert wins B1G POY and contends for Naismith. Becomes top 10 draft pick.
- Walton and Irvin flourish in "Batman" roles and this gives us the best "Big 3" in the B1G.
- Our "Big 3" allows Dawkins much freedom and releases his athleticism. Yes please!
- MAAR and Spike are solid backcourt subs and Spike provides savvy veteran play.
- Wilson and Doyle flourish with no double teams and become a top 4/5 tandem in B1G.
- Donnal and Beifeldt are the subs in the paint and each bring versatility. Donnal improves.
- Duncan is somewhat shelved but flashes shooting prowess on occasion.
- The SWAG is brought back to Ann Arbor and we experience major uptick in recruiting.
Caris Leaves: Much drinking ensues and Michigan makes their annual NBA sacrifice.
Walton (jr) - Spike (sr)
Irvin (jr) - MAAR (so)
Dawkins (so) - Robinson (Rso)
Wilson (Rfr) - Donnal (Rso)
Doyle (So)- Befeldt (5th)
This is still a very good team honestly. Just not elite. There is a lot of scoring here and the 2 deep in the backcourt is very solid. Dawkins seems like a guy who could blow up in year two and Robinson is a wild card. Wilson and Doyle give us a really nice front line with size and length. Donnal and Beifeldt are good backups. This team simply lacks a star despite the overall balance and chemistry that would hopefully carry over from this rough campaign in 2015. They would likely be in the top 5 of the B!G race and be a tourney team. Seems like team with a Sweet 16 ceiling. Cassius Winston and an ELITE scoring wing will be vital for the 2016 class.
Possible year 2 jump that may change our trajectory:
Aubrey Dawkins 2015 stats: 5ppg 46% (fg) 40% (3pt) 88%(ft)
*i think its a safe bet to see Aubrey get more touches next year and a Camp Sanderson year might turn him into a 12 or 13 ppg guy with that type of shooting %. He has flashed elite athleticism and great shooting ability both off of down screens and wide open. Can he creat his own shot? That will be what sets him free.
With Caris gone in this scenario, we need Walton and Irvin to improve their effeciency and consistency. If they can improve and lead effectively, this team could be very dangerous. With Caris, either Walton or Irvin would have to emerge as a star for this team to reach their ceiling.
Reasonable predictions for 2016...... without Caris. (21-10 overall and 11-7 in the B1G)
*5-7 seed in the tourney with a floor of round of 32 and ceiling of SWEET 16.
- Doyle and Wilson blossom into a very promising front line together
-Donnal and Chatman become contributors as versatile 4/5 men and 3/4 men respectively.
-Walton becomes the leader and blossoms into top 3 point guard in the conference.
- irvin develops ability to put the ball on the floor and improves shooting %s.
-MAAR devlops as a solid 6th man and builds on a surpising 2015 campaign.
- Spike grows into a savvy veteran that helps us win down the stretch/builds on consistency.
-Dawkins becomes GR3 2.0 with his athletic ability. He will likely be a top 3 scoring option.
-Duncan Robinson surprises us with his game and gives us +40% 3pt shooting off bench.
Some statistical points and areas of improvement regarding 2015:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines
-We only average 31 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. That seems low. DJ helps here.
- We only average 12 assists per game as a team. That is not good. Derrick helps here.
- We shoot 41% from the field and 35% from 3. That is low for a skilled shooting team.
- Our point guards shoot 36% from the floor and 34% from 3. Needs to be way better.
- Zak Irvin needs to shoot the ball a lot better. 39% from floor and 35% from 3
- Kam Chatman shoots 29% from the floor and 21% from 3. That has to change in 2016.
- Donnal needs to become an inside/outside threat. His shooting % is solid. 50%(fg) 37%(3)
* My last point will be regarding athleticism. There is no way around being athletic. The MSU game was a prime example as was the OSU game. MAAR, Wilson, Dawkins are high level athletes that can help us. All can defend, run and jump which is something we need. We need to develop them further along with Walton and Irvin and this will give us a good core of "athletes". We nearly won a National Title because of our ELITE athleticism. There is no way around it. The addition of Levert next year along with the afformentioned gives us HORSES that we can compete with anybody with. This year weve been run out of the gym several times and looked inferior athletically on several occasions. That needs to change because that is NOT Michigan Basketball. We need to recruit high level athletes. There just flat out is no way around it. Winston and either Lang or Battle will be vital to the 2016 class and settling for less is unacceptable honestly. I think that next year will ease the pain of this year with or without Levert and as long as we clean up on the recruiting trail, Michigan Basketball has a very bright future!
February 20th, 2015 at 5:38 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 7:35 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 8:44 AM ^
This...is very specific. Going 19, 6 and 6 every night is incredibly tough.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
To average that, you'd have to be an all-time great. I mean, Jason Kidd (one of the best triple double threats in the last several decades of basketball) is the only one I could find that's averaged 19/6/6 or better. His last year at Cal, he went for 19/7.9/10, added 3 steals per game, but only 0.3 blocks per game.
Grant Hill (your other triple double threat from the last few decades) came closest to what OP thinks Caris will do when he averaged 17.4ppg / 7.7rpg / 5.8apg /1.9 spg / 1.2 bpg as a senior.
So our guy here is basically saying Caris would be a slightly better version of senior year Grant Hill. OK.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
You're right. I copied the wrong stats down. He played 35min a game so they are pretty close, but the actual averages are 16.7p/6.9r/9.1a/3.1s/0.3b
February 20th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
Evan Turner averaged 20.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 6.0 apg, 1.7 spg, and 1 bpg his junior year (last year in college). Maybe a bit better of a comparison.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^
I would venture a guess that only 1-2 people in the last decade or two have averaged anywhere close to that, and wouldn't be surprised if no one has done it. That's a ridiculous level of production for a player in college.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
Before season ending injury, he was averaged about 15 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg, and .5 bpg. He's not gonna average a block a game. He doesn't defend inside enough to do so. 19 points would be a huge ask, especially with the depth we would have if he returns. I can see getting to 6 and 6 in rebounds and assists though. But it's still a big ask, particularly in assists.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 5:55 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 6:59 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 7:27 AM ^
The good news is that he isn't going to be drafted very high so the $$$ she's going to be seeing are going to be small. He's going to be a second round pick. If he left after this year.
February 20th, 2015 at 7:42 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
Players and their parents always believe they are going to be drafted as highly as the highest person projects them to be drafted. I don't see Caris being drafted in the first round this year. There are too many question marks his worst-case secnario is to come out early, only to be surpassed by twenty of the other fifty guys who do the same thing.
If Caris is a lock for a first round contract and his family needs the money, I can't see him staying. I just think he and his family need to take a long, hard look at where he will actually end up. It has worked out well financially for most of Michigan's early entries. I can't see it working out well for Caris if he leaves. Unfortunately, someone is going to rank him as a mid first-rounder, providing a temptation that is too much to resist.
Luckily, this team should still be really good next year, regardless of whether or not Caris comes back.
February 20th, 2015 at 6:23 AM ^
and many of you will..BUT Im sorry I dont see Levert as POY and all that..Hes good not great..he wasnt all that this year b4 the injury..leaving early would be the worst possible decision he could make,..it would be the last we hear about him...Hes is No Burke, No GRJr no THJ...seriously what has he done? If anyone neaded another year its him
February 20th, 2015 at 7:29 AM ^
I agree Caris is probably not a POY candidate, but to say it is the last we would hear of him, or say he is no GR3 or THJ is ridiculous. You are right, he is no Burke, he will not be hte NPOY, but what exactly did GR3 or THJ do in their college career to elevate them over Caris in your mind? Not to denegrate either of those two players, I wish nothing but the best for them, but you can't say Caris hasn't done anything in college and then imply GR3 and THJ did so much more.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
He's a better shooter and passer than THJ ever was. Caris has shot 40%+ from 3 the past two seasons, and it's not like he's only taking one or two per game. Way better defender too. GR3 provided decent defense and points around the bucket. Not the shooter or creator Caris was though.
He's no Burke, but he's already a better college player than THJ or GR3 ever were.
February 20th, 2015 at 1:44 PM ^
Kids leave early based on where they'd be drafted, not if they are ready. If he's still slotted as a first rounder when the season is over, he should go. I don't see him improving his draft stock greatly next year. Not many seniors get drafted in the lottery these days and the longer he plays, the more scouts will find the holes in his game.
I would like to see him come back, but I don't think he's so valuable that we can't be a tourney team without him. With him healthy we lost to EMU and NJIT and we very easily could've lost to Detroit. He can come back, but if the team around him does not improve, we're in the same spot next January living on the bubble.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:09 PM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 6:23 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 7:45 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
He said before the season he told Max he would not be offered a 5th year.
February 20th, 2015 at 6:45 AM ^
Kids seem to take the money and run more and more often these days and though it sucks for fans, I can't really blame them.
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February 20th, 2015 at 7:04 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 7:40 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
Kids don't want to hear that, but I think he would've been better served on the scout team this year.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^
Great post MichiganMan14. I agree with most of what you are saying but there are a few players I think you are undervaluing and overvaluing. While I hope LeVert stays, after our recent history with early entrants I just don't see it happening. Here is what I see as the lineup assuming he goes:
1 - Walton (6'0")
2 - Irvin (6'6")
3 - Robinson (6'8")
4 - Wilson (6'9")
5 - Doyle (6'9")
If LeVert stays, Irvin goes to the bench and Caris starts at the 2 guard. I think you, and many other UM fans do not realize how good of a player Duncan Robinson is right now. Many assume because he came from DIII he will be "just a guy". His progression reminds me an awful lot of a local Indianapolis player, Gordon Hayward. Both were small point guards entering their SO. year in high school (Robinson was 5'9" and Hayward was 6'0"). As a JR. Hayward had grown to 6'4" and then grew 5" the summer going into his SR. year. Still, only IUPUI and Butler had offered and he committed to Butler. Purdue came in with a very late offer his SR. year, but he stuck with Butler. Robinson grew 9" from his SO. to SR. year, then grew another 2" while at Williams (currently 6'8"). While they are not the same type of player, they do have similar traits. Robinson is a much better shooter than Haward, while Hayward is the better athlete. They both have very good handles for a player of their size and are able to attack the basket with either hand. So to sum things up, I am very excited for Duncan. I still think Wilson is going to be a star. He needs to get stronger and improve his handle, but the sky is limit for him.
If LeVery comes back I think this is a top 10 team. If he doesn't, as I suspect, I think this is a top 20 team.
February 20th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^
I think this is a little different. Beilein was the one that said Donnal (and Beilfeldt) were "unguardable" at times in practice. Every single player at media day said that Duncan was by far the best shooter on the team and that it is nearly impossible to keep him from getting his shot off because of his size and quick release. I put more stock in what the players say as coaches will always talk their players up as much as possible.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
I could be wrong but I don't recall McLimans receiving much hype from his teammates. Who would be the others?
I didn't neg you, by the way. You have a differing opinion than me, and that is perfectly fine.
February 20th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^
I distinctly remember at least one article hyping McLimans during his redshirt year. Not surprising I guess as fans will always want to hear something positive about a player they have not seen anything from. Which leads writers to go seek out positive quotes and players and coaches offering something positive.
February 20th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
I'm betting Wilson is at least another year (2016-17 season) away from being a major contributor. Plus I can't really see beilein playing Irvin and Duncan together at the 2 and 3, as that would not provide much in the way of a secondary ball handler. If, in fact, duncan robinson is as good as you suggest, I would think the lineup would look like this:
Walton (15) / Spike (20) / MAAR (5)
MAAR (15) / Walton (15) / Irvin (10)
Irvin (20) / Dawkins (20)
Duncan (15) / Chatman (10) / Wilson (5)
Doyle (20) / Donnal (15) /Wilson (5)
February 20th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
I think MAAR will definitely play more than 20 minutes a game next year. Unless Caris comes back.
February 20th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
I think you are probably right. Not sure where those extra minutes will come from though. Hard to see Spike getting fewer than 20 or Walton fewer than 30. Irvin will most likely get some time at the 4, which means that Duncan, Chatman, and Wilson will probably get even less than I've projected.
February 20th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
what Jaylon Brown does. He's the additional wild card in this too.
February 20th, 2015 at 8:51 AM ^
They are great in college but not physically ready for the NBA. I posted the same about Stauskas when he was deciding. It was obvious his success would diminish greatly if one looked at his numbers against quality BiG teams (physical defense) and the rest of the his games.
He gone.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:04 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 9:18 AM ^
LeVert is likely to, and probably should, head to the pros while he can. Chatman is looking like a bust and this team needs a Morris-Burke-Stauskas caliber alpha dog that may not be on the roster next year.
We may bounce back strongly with more injury luck, player development, and experience next year but this roster is not the stacked outfit of 2012-2014 right now.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
I think he has more reasons to return than any of our early entry candidates the past 5 years. And I'm sure he sees or talks to Glenn and Nik who despite playing pro hoops cannot possibly be having as much fun as they did in college.
Frank Kaminsky is best case scenario if he comes back (winning, fun, degree, first round stock). Jordan Morgan is the worst case scenario (NBA camp invites, degree, winning, fun, pro future).
Mitch McGary is best scenario if he leaves (first round pick despite injury concerns, playing well (caveat injuries continue...not exactly best case). Spencer Dinwiddie is worst case scenario (2nd round pick, proLonged NBADL stints)
If I'm him, objectively I think it's better to back. But I will not hold it against him if he leaves.