Who Would be Your 4th Playoff Team Today?
With a top 3 well set btw Oregon, Bama, and FSU the big question tonight is slot #4. Last week I thought based on "that week's" action (TCU with a smacking of top 10 KSU more impressive than Bama barely beating top 20 LSU) TCU would take the 4th spot rather than just moving Bama up from 5th to 4th as 99% of AP voters would do. And the playoff committee did indeed do that.
This week is even more tricky. TCU did not look great "this week" vs Kansas while Miss State originally looked bad vs Bama but ended up coming back nicely in the 2nd half to make it a 1 score game. On the road. So my Magic 8 ball has Miss State as the #4 team. What say you?
(And they might move Bama ahead of 0 loss FSU to the #2 spot?)
Sagarin data:
- Miss State - Sagarin rank 8. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 1-1. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 4-1. Only loss by a few to Bama. SOS = 32
- TCU - Sagarin rank 7. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 1-1. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 3-1. Only loss by a few to Baylor. SOS = 38
In a way it might be a moot point because TCU is out of chances for quality wins whereas Miss State has 1 more quality win to be had if they can beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. And without Treadwell Ole Miss looks in trouble. That will push their SOS up and their top 30 record to 5-1. The wildcard being that the committe is supposed to reward "conference champions". (Which could still be Baylor or TCU) But for this specific week it will be interesting what they decide.
Other contender for slot 4 is Baylor but they have less "quality wins" than Miss State or TCU so right now would be in slot #6 I believe.
- Sagarin rank 4. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 2-0. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 2-1. Only loss to West Virginia. SOS = 55.
Before you ask OSU is not a contender due to BIG TEEEEEN scheduling (no crossover with Nebraska or Wisconsin and UM/PSU hot garbage) and their OOC. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 0-0 Record vs Sagarin top 30: 1-0. Plus a bad loss. All they will have at end of year is 2 quality wins if they best Wisconsin in the title game.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:05 AM ^
Oregon, FSU, Alabama, and Mississippi State
November 18th, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^
Alabama
Oregon
FSU
Marshall JK
Miss State
November 18th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
If Marshall ends up undefeated, is there any chance at all they get into the playoff?
srs question
November 18th, 2014 at 9:16 AM ^
No, it's them and Colorado State in contention for the non-power 5 News Years Day bowl game slot. At least that's how I think it works now.
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Miss State
November 18th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^
might not even win their conference, let alone their division. CSU, Boise and Utah St are all tied with one loss in the same division. CSU lost to Boise but beat Utah St. Boise and Utah St play in the last game of the regular season. The division winner very well might come down to the Boise/Utah St game. If Boise wins, Boise goes to play in the conference championship. If Utah St wins, CSU goes to play in the conference championship.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:17 AM ^
No, but they'd be guaranteed in one of the other 4 bowls the playoff committe will set. The top rated non power 5 conf team is guaranteed 1 spot in those 8 slots - i.e. the Boise State effect.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^
Oregon, Alabama, FSU, MISS ST.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 5:38 PM ^
Sounds good. We know he can chuck it 20'9" with accuracy more than twice a game. And he'd be a beast on the QB sneak.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
I'll go with Miss St. for right now, but I think OSU gets in if they beat Wisconsin in the title game. I think Miss St has another loss left in them this year.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
I don't think Ohio beats Wisconsin if they play.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 9:30 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^
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November 18th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
Take a look at MSST's schedule. They get credit for beating a lot of teams that looked good at the time. They beat #8 LSU who is now 7-4, #6 TAMU who is now 7-4, and #2 Auburn who is now 7-3. Auburn is the only ranked team they've beaten and everyone else on their schedule has been terrible.
Compare that to Ohio State, who if they win the Big Ten championship game, will have wins over a ranked Michigan State and Wisconsin team. The committee has said they will take injuries into account and losing to Va Tech in Barrett's second game certainly fits the bill for that.
You may hate Ohio State just because they are Ohio State, but when you really look at the schedules and quality wins they aren't THAT different.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
what all the committee looks at but at least by the Sagarin ratings Auburn is ranked 6th (#1 SOS), LSU ranked 14th (#4 SOS) and A&M is ranked 17th (#8 SOS).
November 18th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
I don't know how updated the Sagarin rankings are, but LSU just got shutout by Arkansas for their first SEC win in two years. So I (and likely the committee) would take that with a fairly large grain of salt.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
the Arkansas team that lost to Alabama by 1 pt and lost to Mississippi St by 7 pts in a game where Arkansas was in the lead or tied for the vast majority of the game?
Arkansas might be 5-5 and only have 1 win in conference play but I'm guessing they'd be contending for a division title in the Big 10. Heck, Arkansas is ranked 23rd in the Sagarin ratings.
November 18th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
Those SEC West teams you listed have 3 and 4 losses because they have to play a full slate of SEC West games. They'd all be 0- or 1-loss teams in the sad sack Big Ten.
Here is a complete list of losses by SEC West teams to other teams outside that division: Georgia over Arkansas, Georgia over Auburn, Missouri over Texas A&M. Yes- the seven teams collectively have three losses to teams outside their division.
A prerequisite for the Big Ten getting a playoff spot needs to be the entire conference not getting embarrassed in non-conference play. What is the best non-conference win by the Big Ten? Indiana over Missouri? Northwestern over a reeling Notre Dame? Any other wins over teams that are anywhere near the top 25? By my estimation, the third best non-con win is MSU's moral victory in a 20-point loss to Oregon.
Also, a win over LSU is still more impressive than a win over Wisconsin when you consider the fact that LSU beat Wisconsin earlier this season.
November 18th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^
I don't think the committee cares or is going to buy in to all of that. At some point it becomes a "we only lose because we play each other and everyone is good" echo chamber effect. And if they have to choose between Mississippi State, Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State for the fourth slot, I think they'll lean towards the team that actually won their conference. I think Baylor and TCU will cancel each other out, Mississippi State loses points because their schedule is kinda weak and they didn't win their division or conference, and that leaves the door open for Ohio State.
For as good as OSU has looked lately, its pretty hard to argue that they don't deserve a shot. And frankly, I'd like to see the committee place some extra signifigance on actually winning your conference. You have four spots for 5 conf champs. It would be kinda shitty to have two champs sitting out in year one. If all things are equal for the fourth spot, give the nod to the team that won their conference.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
I'd argue that OSU played one non-conference game against a team with a pulse and, in that game, lost at home to .500 ACC team. Their best wins are Michigan State and... Minnesota? Who TCU also beat, and by a considerably larger margin. If you look at the other top teams in the Big Ten, they all have non-conference schedules littered with losses to literally every other power 5 team any of them faced. The Big Ten, based on non-conference results, is effectively a mid-major this year.
I guess my point is that there is a large gulf between the top three conferences and the Big Ten/ACC. I feel the playoff needs to have two representatives from the SEC, but I'd also accept two from the Big 12. I'd leave Jimbo Fisher and his band of enabled criminals home just out of my own distaste for them.
Give me Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, and TCU.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
Totally agree is the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and then everyone else.
I'd love to see FSU left out, but unless Florida or someone beats them its not going to happen. I mean, you wanna talk about bad schedules and beating no one...take a look at FSU's schedule. Yeesh. And way to barely beat a three (now four) loss Miami team.
I still like the idea of conf champs facing each other if its a close call between teams. And I think head-to-head should matter. So since I too think FSU isn't even a top 10 team let alone a top 4 team (seriously would you take them against any top 10 team right now?), I'd go with Oregon, Alabama, Baylor, and Ohio State. Those would be some fun semifinal matcups.
November 18th, 2014 at 4:49 PM ^
By declaring the SEC is the best and then citing them beating each other up as evidence is circular logic at its best/worst.
Aabama played one slightly above average team in WV (a team that has lost 3 add'l times since that game including to a bad Texas team).
Auburn had the best OOC win vs. K. State but then lost to an average Texas A&M and an average Georgia team (who themselves have 2 horrible losses).
Miss State played no one. Even their wins have been eh. If you looked at their resumes and blanked out the names, you'd be hard pressed to have them 4th.
November 18th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^
All that says is that there isn't a garbage team in that division. What wins of note does the division have? LSU over Wisconsin, Alabama over West Virginia, Auburn over Kansas State, Ole Miss over an ok Boise State team (three of those four on "neutral fields" in SEC territory). That's really it. After that you're into garbage with the best wins being over Florida, South Carolina or Tennessee.
The SEC West has barely played anyone. Their greatness is based almost entirely on circular logic. I think it's a good division, probably best in football right now, but I don't think any particular team is all that great. Those teams would lose games no matter what conference they played in, even the Big Ten. Maybe subtract a loss for each team, but anything beyond that is probably giving the division more then it is due.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^
that you say those are their only wins. The Bama, LSU and Auburn wins are 3 of the most impressive non-conference wins of the year, especially since the first two were on neutral fields and the 3rd was on the road. The SEC West went undefeated in non-conference play. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, the SEC West could claim victories over 6 conference champions.
Please list all the Big Ten non-conference wins that are impressive?
November 18th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^
Those three wins are better than Oregon over MSU? Or Virginia Tech. over Ohio State? I doubt it. Or how about anyone over Notre Dame or BC over USC? Or Nebraska over Miami? I don't think anyone claims that the Big Ten has done anything this season, but c'mon, that doesn't mean the SEC West's OOC wins are amazing.
The SEC West's three wins are decent, but that you would argue that they're "the most impressive non-conference wins of the year," says more about the fact that nobody plays anyone than about the strength of the SEC West. Kansas State was a legitimately good win, even if they are only the third best team in the Big 12. West Virginia is the fifth best team in the Big 12 and Wisconsin is the third best team in the very bad Big 10 (and that game was without a functioning QB and half without Melvin Gordon). What's comical is that anyone would hang their hat on those three wins as the basis of superiority.
November 18th, 2014 at 7:04 PM ^
"Please list all the Big Ten non-conference wins that are impressive?"
Well, there's always Indiana (alone in last in the Big Ten East at 0-6 in conference) beating Missouri (alone in first in the SEC East at 5-1 in conference) 31-27.
I wouldn't call the LSU win over Wisconsin particularly impressive - assuming you actually watched the game. Wisconsin had to lose their entire interior DL (to injury) and that dude that just jogged for 400+ yards (to coaching stupidity) in the 2nd half to let LSU back in the game.
November 18th, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^
So a win over Virginia Tech is better than a win over Ohio State because Virigina Tech beat OSU? Nice SEC logic.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^
Assuming Miss St. and OSU both win out, I would put Miss St.'s win over Ole Miss as a better quality win than OSU over Wisconsin...at least according to current rankings.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
That's assuming Ole Miss beats Arkansas this weekend. They are only a 3pt favorite, Arkansas has been close to beating a lot of good teams this season, and finally notching a good win over LSU might give them the confidence boost to knock off Ole Miss at home.
A win over a three loss free-falling Ole Miss team wouldn't be as impressive. And winning their conference would probably give Ohio State the edge over Miss St for the fourth spot.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
I think Baylor wins out and their resume improves enough to get by TCU...by this much. I think Miss St loses egg bowl to Miss.
As for Ohio, they win out (Sad face here) but still finish below Baylor and TCU.
As for OHIO....
November 18th, 2014 at 9:08 AM ^
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November 18th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Did you even watch their game against Kansas last weekend? TCU would get smacked on a neutral field against Mississippi State or Ohio State.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^
Today, it would be Mississippi State. A close loss to 'Bama as their only blemish allows them to stay in the playoffs. I don't think they get to retain that 4 spot when it's all said and done though.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
There is a playoff today?
November 18th, 2014 at 5:40 PM ^
The weather sure f-ing feels like it.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
Yes I think for most drama (which I am all for with Michigan not relevant to these discussions) I'd like to see TCU remain at 4 and Miss State 5. Then both win out. Then they'd move Miss State to #4 based on one more quality win vs Ole Miss and TCU not having any more chances for quality wins.
So a week before the final regular season games, only 1 SEC team is in. Then in the second to last playoff seeding they move a SEC team into slot #4 ahead of league title games. Causing nationwide demonstrations!
The wildcard here is I dont think if Baylor and TCU win out that TCU is the Big 12 champ. I dont know their tiebreakers but Baylor beat TCU head to head so I would assume that is tiebreaker #1. So TCU could not even hold the "conference champion" playoff tiebreaker over Miss State if Baylor is the conference champion. Both TCU and MSU would be 1 loss non champions. TCU and Baylor are also hurt by not having a conf championship game which would give 1 of them (or both if they played each other) 1 more chance at a quality win.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:11 AM ^
Your post is why it's stupid for the committee to have weekly rankings. Nothing should constrain the committee at the end of the season from determining who they think deserves a shot in the playoffs. If the committee wanted to have those initial rankings at week 9 or so, just to show what they were currently feeling, fine, but the weekly rankings have the potential to carry over the worst part of the poll-based championship system into the playoff selection committee.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:21 AM ^
I mean it's gotta be Michigan State. They play in the toughest conference and have only been blown out by the two good teams they've played. Go ahead, ask D'Antonio if I'm wrong.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:40 AM ^
They lost their only non-conference game that couldn't be laughed at, at home by 2 touchdowns to a team that is now 5-5.
Plus their two statement wins came against 2 teams who got smoked by Oregon and TCU.
Very impressive resume.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 9:42 AM ^
FSU
Oregon
Bama
TCU/Baylor (depending on your stance on H2H victories vs OOC)
IMO both are well above Ohio State. I am still not convinced Miss St won't end up with at least two more losses.
Edit: I do think FSU will get shellacked by any of the other 3 teams. Living in Florida and watching every Seminole game has me thoroughly underwhelmed by them.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:49 AM ^
to run up as big a victory over us as possible. Obviously he needs a bunch of other teams to lose to have any chance, but even if other dominos fall, a 34-10 victory over Michigan won't move the needle enough. it needs to be something like 62-7 to get the attention of the selection committee, and then needs to follow it up with another big win over Wisconsin in the championship game.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
He may want to run it up over Wisconsin, but he won't be able to.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
To be clear, I under no circumstances want OSU in the playoff. I was just wondering about the possibilities.
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November 18th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^
If UCLA wins out, I think they have a pretty strong resume. I think they would have a shot at keeping OSU and other one-loss teams out. They would have a drubbing of ASU, wins over Texas, Arizona, USC, Stanford and Oregon with their only losses in competitive games vs. Utah and Oregon.
I also think at the end of the day a conference championship is going to carry weight. Everything the committee has said indicates this to be true. I think the committee is going to know that the gathered information only means so much when there are so few data points between conferences. Unfortunately for the Big Ten, all the data points that do exist are negative, so a Big Ten championship probably carries the least weight. OSU isn't going to climb over a one-loss conference champion and would need the committee to put a lot of weight behind the conference championship to overcome a one-loss Mississippi State.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
Hmmm. I don't see it. UCLA would be 2-2 vs Sagarin top 30 teams. OSU would be 2-0 if they beat Wiscy. And both would be conference champions. OSU with only 1 loss. I dont see a 2 loss conference champion in getting this year with FSU at 0 losses, the SEC champion most likely with 1 loss (barring a Georgia win), the Big 10 with a potential 1 loss tea, and the Big 12 with two 1 loss teams.
I think the first 2 loss team in would be Georgia if a lot of other dominoes fell and that would have to include a win over Bama or Miss State in the championship game. Georgia has some weird losses but is 5-1 vs the Sagarin top 30. They'd be 6-1 with a win over Bama/Miss State and other than Bama would be the most wins over top 30 teams in the nation.
Reading between Jeff Long's lines I think when all other things are equal the # of quality wins is the most important factor. Of course the debate can be what constitutes quality.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^
Why are you throwing around W-L v. Sagarin top 30 as some important metric? Is there any indication from the committee that they are using that as a basis at all? One computer ranking in a vacuum is practically worthless. I mean, they have a Georgia team that got destroyed by a very bad Florida team as #3. How in the world does that make sense? Obviously one weird ranking doesn't negate a whole system, but it does show why you shouldn't only consider one computer ranking system when you're working with so few points of comparison between conferences. To my eye, Sagarin is clearly over valuing the SEC (A&M at 17, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee all in the top 30???? This is the ranking system you're using?) while undervaluing the Pac 12. So of course, if you are simply using that as your basis, you're not going to see a two loss Pac 12 team getting in.
I think a two loss Georgia team would make it for the same reason that I think a two loss UCLA team would have a shot. The committee says they are going to value conference championships, and being the champion of one of the two best conferences is going to carry extra weight. If UCLA wins out, they will have played 12 P5 teams, with the 13th game coming against current AAC leader Memphis. That is going to play well no matter what computer poll is used.
I think an 11-2 UCLA has a shot over Ohio State, and I think they have a pretty good shot over a second Big 12 or SEC team. This process is going to be political and the most defensible move is to give four conference champions their shot. Throwing a second team from a conference in only really "works" for the committee if that second team wins the whole thing. If the champion from the conference with two in wins, people can say, yeah, well, what if conference X was better and their champion didn't get a shot. If neither conference team wins it looks really bad for the committee. I think the committee is going to look to avoid that until the selection committee has built up the reputation of the playoffs as crowning a true champion.