Washington Defense vs Michigan's Other Opponents
I was pretty surprised to see it, but (according to NCAA stats), Washington's Total Defense is rated #94 in the nation. That's worse than 13 of our 14 opponents so far this season. The only defense worse was UNLV (#103). I know Penix is a fantastic QB and I've got lots of respect for what UW has done this season, and still, I'm shocked by that stat.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
As Bo schemheckler points out, they are #44 in SP+. According to Fremeau, they are #27.
Total Defense at NCAA stats is a crude measure.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
their defense is 44th in SP+ (our offense is 12th in SP+)
their offense is 4th in SP+ (our defense is 1st in SP+)
I'm more worried about their ability to put up points than their ability to prevent scoring.
Actually, my biggest concern is that the Harbaugh Lizard Brain will make an appearance, whispering "a 7 point lead is safe" in his ear.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:07 PM ^
They are 2021 Ohio State (but not quite as elite statistically). Pretty sure this Michigan team has a great blueprint for how to beat a team with that profile.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^
Pound the ball down their throats and keep Penix off the field, it's pretty simple
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:51 PM ^
But pay those long drives off with points. Michigan did not punt a single time in the second half against OSU in 2021.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:50 PM ^
First downs. Lots and lots of first downs.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:08 PM ^
2021 OSU game, Michigan stiffened in the red zone. OSU moved the ball. Stroud was 34-49, 394 TDs and 2 TDs. Michigan forced OSU to kick a couple field goals, and that was the difference in the game.
Washington is going to move the ball. Like the OSU games in '21 and '22, UM needs to stiffen in the red zone and/or get some turnovers.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:51 PM ^
Trade Michigan TDs for Washington FGs.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:52 PM ^
People still give themselves the Tucker treatment over those passing yards even on this blog.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:09 PM ^
Should be able to force them to commit more bodies to stopping the run. Pretty sure they haven't seen the level of physicality Michigan will bring to this game.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
Oregon is a pretty physical team and Washington beat them twice. I like Michigan but it will still be a tough matchup and Michigan's secondary needs to play well.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
I like Dan Lanning lot and the mentality he's bringing to that program, but I think Michigan's play on each side of the line of scrimmage will be an adjustment for Washington. Either team can win this game obviously, but they have to be a little nervous about Michigan's ability to limit thier offense's possessions. This is a true clash of styles and should be great to watch.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
Washington also defeated Utah, which is a legitimately physical opponent.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:53 PM ^
Physical enough to handle Northwestern?
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:14 PM ^
Yep. Styles make fights, and this is going to be a really fun one to watch.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:16 PM ^
Take the over. Gonna be a lot of points, they have 3 NFL WRs and a hell of a QB and a hell of a line. Going to be like OSU 2021 and that worked out for us! JJ can't play like he did last game but he won't be facing NFL CBs or DEs either!
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
They didn't score a single offensive TD on a 3-9 ASU team and needed a pick 6 to win. Washington is very hit or miss and one dimensional(no run game to speak of). They're honestly extremely lucky to be undefeated, almost every 50/50 situation went their way this season.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
Until 1/8.... then the 50/50 situation is going to go against them.... just like the 25/75 situations, the 60/40 situations and all the other situations.
Onward, Go Blue!
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:54 PM ^
Some Washington blogger is talking about the Maryland game right now.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^
Well, actually Washington has an edge projected to the first round (Bralen Trice) and their best corner, Jabbar Muhammad, is currently projected as a late-round draft pick.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
They make plays when it counts. That was the key in both Oregon games. It was key yesterday, when they were able to turn Texas over in the second half. Even during their swoon after the first Oregon game, the defense made the play that turned around the ASU game. The numbers aren't good, obviously, but there's a reason, despite being the worst unit int he playoff by the numbers, that UW is here. After the Fiesta Bowl, I can't imagine the staff will just assume they'll be able to control the game offensively, they're going to need to score.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^
We win by 15. Both teams travelled to EL and won by a combined 100-7 margin. Washington winning 41-7 and Michigan, 49-0. We were +8 on offense and +7 on D, therefore +15. M 39-24.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:21 PM ^
We have a common opponent in MSU(we both played in EL) they beat MSU 41-7 vs our 49-0.
3 teams with worse defense than ours have held them to under 30 points. They scored 15 points on ASU, 22 on Oregon State and 21 on Washington State.
I am feeling cautiously optimistic.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^
Utah probably the most Michigan like team in P12 (used to be Stanford) and lost by a TD at home
Offense is excellent but we play an excellent offense the last game of the year every year! Defense nowhere OSU level.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^
OSU offense is scarier IMO because OSU has an actual running game that you have to respect. With Washington you don't have to worry about it.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:31 PM ^
Michael Penix is a different level than Kyle McCord.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
Somehow a 3-9 ASU team managed to keep their offense from scoring a single TD.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:43 PM ^
And Michigan farted around, gained under 300 yards total, and only beat a defensively mediocre Maryland team by 7 with a defensive td and 2 safeties. I think, at this point, you can basically ignore iffy mid-season results by undefeated teams.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^
That game was sandwiched between the Penn State and OSU games with a ton of distractions.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
And Washington's game against ASU was a weak after they beat Oregon, their biggest program win since they won the Pac 12/went to the playoff in 2016. The point is that neither game is a particularly helpful point of comparison.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:07 PM ^
The ASU game was the week after the first Oregon game. It was also several games ago and probably should be discounted beyond simply being a data point
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:25 PM ^
Washington State and Oregon State also held them to under 25 points. They're not 2019 LSU putting up 40+ on everyone.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:50 PM ^
Surprisingly, Maryland has the #13 ranked defense in SP+. I was shocked too.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:54 PM ^
Auburn's not.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:32 PM ^
I dont know if the entire world missed this like I did but Northwestern beat Utah.
Wow. Take Michigan out of the equation and I think its:
Georgia, Bama, Washington, FSU, Texas, OSU
Georgia and OSU are punished for WHEN they lost.
You lose to Oklahoma you shouldnt be leap frogging any undefeated team. Texas had the worst loss and a shitty conference. They spent the season beating the Big Ten if they didnt have OSU, Um, and Penn st.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:29 PM ^
Just a reminder that Washington is undefeated for a reason....Penix is a more scary/seasoned individual talent/passer than Milroe - can we all please respect the shit out of them otherwise I have got three letters for everyone...TCU.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
The people in this forum aren't playing, who cares if we respect Washington or not.
The TCU game isn't comparable, TCU had a balanced offense and killed us with their run game, Washington isn't going to do that. Plus we should have won that TCU game, we gifted them a ton of points off turnovers.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:42 PM ^
I think UWs lead back is going to be out.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:43 PM ^
If you say so my man....if you say so
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:35 PM ^
I think we all think Penix is a beast. It the other parts were not so sure about. C J Stroud without the 5 star backs, 5 star d line, 5 star secondary. Yep that does sound a lot like TCU.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
Yeah but we didn't have Corum and JJ wasn;t experienced like he is now.
Michigan will be fine.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
I'm really afraid the refs are going to have an outsized effect on the game. Penix is going to chuck the ball downfield a bunch, and whether or not they get PI calls will decide the game, I think.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
Am I alone here thinking if Milroe was a pass first QB yesterday things may have been worse for them? His running ability saved their asses several times. Maybe the Washington O line is better but you drop back 40 times against this d line and shit could go sideways real quick. Hell throw in 3 amazing touchdowns and you are at 21 points. Now what?
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:43 PM ^
Bama literally could not throw deep passes because we didn't give them time for those routes to develop. We really have to hope to get the same kind of pressure on Penix. And early so he can't get into a rhythm. Washington's OTs are projected to play in the NFL, but the middle of their line is meh. We should be able to get penetration.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:41 PM ^
They should have trouble stopping our offense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^
Per SP+, in our last 5 games, we have played the #8, #3, #2, #13, and #4 defenses while scoring 27, 26, 30, 31, and 41 points. You probably can't average that statistically, but if you could, it would be scoring 31 points on the #6 defense.
Incidentally, the #6 defense is Nebraska who we scored 45 on earlier this year. We put up 52 on Minnesota who has the #31 defense.
Plus, it's worth noting that for the most part, we were not really trying to score for large portions of some of these games.
Washington is the #44 defense which is 10 points worse than Nebraska, so something like 42 points doesn't seem unreasonable is you believe the fancy stats.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:10 PM ^
I think there are some HUGE asterisks on some of the Big Ten West defensive rankings because they all played each other and their offense are all uniformly asstastic who struggle to successfully eat paste on passing downs. That asterisk also extends to us to a lesser extent since we also played four B1G West teams.
That said, we are the best defense in the country and if anyone can keep U Dubs offense from going ape shit, it's us
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:26 PM ^
Pretty sure sp+ adjusts for strength of opponent.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:56 PM ^
As well as it can, but there was very little crossover between the Big Ten and good non-conference teams this year.
January 3rd, 2024 at 5:19 AM ^
We scored 25 on Penn St. why do you show 41?