projections for 2022 Michigan Football
Guess with the season freshly finished I'd like some, hopefully objective, opinions on how Michigan fairs in 2022.
Would like to see overall record projection, B10 finish and also how you expect Michigan to do vs rivals.
The schedule seems favorable except the 3 toughest games are on the road. I have 10-2 2nd in the B10 East behind Ohio State. They start 4-0 but drop at Iowa. I do believe they take down MSU on the road but can't quite beat Ohio State to finish 10-2 (7-2).
Offense- JJ is day 1 starter and we all see why already. Edwards and Corum are going to be problems for everyone. Wr's are will be as deep as I've ever seen it at M. TEs will be very good as well. Oline will be the biggest thing. If we can plug and play this could be Michigan's best offense under Harbaugh.
Defense- (Assuming Hill/Ojabo go pro) Defense has some young building blocks but losing Hutch, Hawkins, Ross, Hill, and Ojabo is a tall order. Especially from a leadership standpoint. We've seen what losing strong leadership can do to even a talented team example (M Basketball this season). However a lot of guys got playing time this season so the gap might be smaller than some expect. They will struggle against great offenses but the good thing is Michigan doesn't play many great offensive teams next season.
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:42 AM ^
It’s hard to take you serious when you don’t even know MSU is a home game.
(Yes, I know the “schedule says” but this has been addressed dozens of times here and elsewhere.)
January 3rd, 2022 at 5:03 AM ^
Dick Face approved??
January 3rd, 2022 at 6:59 AM ^
Dude, just take your L.
January 3rd, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
Seriously. Not to mention there have been too many “2022 Projections” Hawt Take posts already, and those were also negged to oblivion.
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
the schedule on mgoblue doesn't even list the game what's the deal Is it for sure at the big house I live in Florida and need to make hotel reservations early . I must have missed the early discussions on this issue
January 3rd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
It is 100% at the Big House. The B1G has to completely rework the schedule for every team to accommodate the UM/MSU/Indiana switches, which is causing the delay.
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
I am probably missing something very obvious, but aren’t the games already on the schedule? Isn’t this just a question of switching the location of the games?
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:32 PM ^
To avoid having too many consecutive home or away games, the conference is going to redo the schedules entirely. Switching dates for everyone to accommodate that. Still play the same teams, but the dates those teams are played will likely change.
For example, If they just flipped the IU and MSU locations, Michigan would play 8 of its first 9 games at home and then have zero home games in November.
January 4th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
For me it was the loss to Iowa. Would have been nice to get a single piece of justification around why we're getting so much worse and they're getting so much better between now and then. The OP might have missed the btcg I guess.
Don't blame him, it wasn't close.
Cheers.
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:43 AM ^
4-8. Fire Harbaugh!
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:44 AM ^
I wish people would slow down with these 2022 threads, it's too early to project as accurately as we'd like to right now.
Another signing day is coming, transfer portal factors in, guys leaving early or staying, potential coaching changes. Nobody knows right now. Let's wait till after spring ball.
MSU is at home next season and with that weak nonconference schedule, 10-2 should be doable but hoping for way better...of course.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:47 AM ^
It's just early thoughts and being excited for next season. Projections are sure to change. I'm sure everyone was already doing their own at least a little already.
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:55 AM ^
Your OP is just fine-even reasonable. Clearly BPONE for Michigan football fans is currently in full bloom. The Michigan players and coaches are surely disappointed but, just as surely, they have mostly moved on-they certainly are not cowering/sobbing in a corner.
Next year's team has great potential-I think they have a higher ceiling than this year's team. Surely there are holes to fill-even sizable ones. However, the next-men-up have better reason to be better prepared than those who stepped up this year. I hope next year's joy will be equal to or greater than this year's.
We should all be celebrating the wonder of this year's season success.
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:58 AM ^
I defer to Yogi Berra for predictions on the 2022 season.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
Each 'predictions' thread is déjà vu all over again!
January 3rd, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
Thank you.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
The 2022 projections are as relevant as the bowl projections and seed projections in the middle of the season that are posted all the time
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
It is never too early to project 15-0 national champs baby!
January 3rd, 2022 at 2:46 AM ^
The expectation should be for about a 10-2 season with a NY6 bowl at the end with a chance at 11-1 with a win at OSU and another Big Ten Championship.
I predict a high end down field throw game will be needed for that to actually happen. They have the tools, so hopefully they can get the Ferrari built and revved up in time. If they go into next season without the passing game, a clunker or two are likely and 3-4 losses would be possible.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:50 AM ^
So I assume you think JJ will be the driver of that Ferrari?
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Not sure why you're getting so heavily downvoted every comment. What a bunch of petty folks.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^
Same, I didn't think the post was that bad. Though I'll admit this one was a little late to the game.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Brad, take it from a relative; this is 2022 and electric runs the show. Tesla plaid blows the doors off a Rari. We’re moving onward & upward.
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:50 AM ^
It would be nice to validate 2021 with another great 2022 and another spot in the playoffs, but most likely that won't happen. College football other than like 2 or 3 teams is a big pool of teams that can go between 11-1 and 7-5 on the weight of 2 or 3 plays. Michigan was pretty literally two plays going differently from being 8-3 going into the Ohio State game.
We have huge holes to fill on defense. I'd love to see us go to Columbus with another shot at winning the East Division again. Less than that will feel pretty disappointing but equally understandable, college football is hard man. Maintain the momentum, have a great recruiting year and sky's the limit in 2023.
Must. Beat. Sparty. For. Real.
January 3rd, 2022 at 6:53 AM ^
They were also a ref shit show away from being 13-0 and playing Cincinnati in the semifinals.
Still pissed the committee avoided the SEC rematch in the semis to allow it to happen in the championship game.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
This x 1000. The 2-3 plays mentioned above were ones that the players did in fact make. The ref shenanigans were 100% outside of the players' and the team's control.
The committee got cold feet and was afraid of upsetting the mighty SEC. So instead of a semi-finals rematch, we get the finals rematch. Such cowards.
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
In 7 seasons, Harbaugh has had one season with less than 8 wins. He has won 9+ games five out of seven seasons. 9+ wins next year is really not going out on a limb.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
Also, in seven seasons, Harbaugh has had one season with FEWER than 8 wins.
s/ Stannis Baratheon
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
“College football other than like 2 or 3 teams is a big pool of teams that can go between 11-1 and 7-5 on the weight of 2 or 3 plays.”
This right here. There is a small margin of error. Michigan’s floor should be 10-3 every year. Our ceiling is 11-2, 12-2, or 13-1 with a lot of luck. Despite last year (2017 & 2019 too) Harbaugh generally has us in the right direction. Three loses is ok. More than 3 loses is a bad season.
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
While a long shot, why is 13-1 our ceiling?
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
Well...CFB today is wildly unbalanced in talent distribution, much more so than at any time in history.
We all know this in a vague way. But when you look at the numbers...you can see that the schools in Michigan's talent cohort have almost no chance of winning a national championship.
As discussed elsewhere just yesterday.... This year four teams (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, OSU) are signing 50% of the top 50 recruits.
If you go back 20 years, the top 50 were scattered among 23 schools, with no school having more than 2. This year Georgia (no. 3 ranked class) will sign 8 top 50 players. Michigan (no. 9 class) has 1 top 50 player.
The very top talent was much more evenly distributed a generation ago. Top 50/100 players were much more likely to stay in their region, etc. It was not possible to assemble the talent concentrations that we now see at Alabama, Georgia, OSU, and soon Texas A&M.
Michigan has the no. 9 class this year, which is an excellent result. Michigan under Harbaugh is perhaps top 8-12 range in roster talent, judged on average over the last 5-year cycle (7th, 8th, 11tth, 17th, 15th). So the no. 9 class this year fits in the range that Harbaugh has gotten.
20 years ago, the gap between the no. 8-12 roster and the no. 1-2 roster was close enough that coaching, development, certain guys overperforming their recruiting rankings, etc., etc., could mean that the no. 10-12 roster talent school could win a national championship.
That is not possible anymore, given that the top 3 or 4 have really distanced themselves by a huge margin from the no. 8-12 cohort (where Michigan has been under Harbaugh).
The '21 Michigan team was incredible. Coaches did a tremendous job overall. We had a Heisman finalist, We had the most steady QB play of the Harbaugh era. We had a wildly entertaining set of RBs. We had excellent leadership from several seniors. We had a team that seemed to really pull together and do super fun stuff (jump around at Wisconsin etc.).
This is the sort of team that could have won a national CC in an earlier era where talent was not so concentrated in the top 3 or 4 schools.
Yeah, I know that Michigan just beat OSU--one of the roster talent top 3--by a comfortable margin. But...the reality of CFB now is that a team like the '21 Michigan team has an impossible path--beat the no. 3 (OSU), then no. 2 (Georgia), and then no. 1 (Alabama) most talented rosters in an era when those schools have three/four times as many top 50 or top 100 players...
So...it is not even fair to call a national CC a longshot... It is more 'shoot the moon' territory. Maybe it could become a longshot if Michigan could move from the 8-12 to the 5-8 recruiting range (and have a Heisman finalist QB--maybe JJ?)... That is how Clemson and LSU won their national championships...
January 3rd, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
I think that unbalance has already started to change. The past 10 years 4-5 looked all the talent, you already see that changing. Hell the #1 player in highschool went to Jacksonville state or some shit. It will take probably 2 more years but you should see a wildly different college football than the past 10 years. That ain't good news for Clemson, OSU and Bama they are going to start seeing the playing field level off a bit
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^
Half of the top 50 players going to just four schools does not look like a shift back to a more balanced distribution of top 50/100 players. Seem like even more concentration of talent than ever.
You may be correct in predicting that the next 10 years will be different than the last 10 (I hope so).
But at least over the last 10 years, top 50/100 talent is way more concentrated today than it was 10 years ago.
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
While a longshot, we could have an elite offense next year. McCarthy has the tools to be one of the best qbs in college football (not saying he will be, but he definitely has the tools). If All is really coming back, we could have one of the best tight ends in college football. Corum and Edwards should be one of the best tandems of backs in college football. A healthy Bell and Anthony are the nucleus of a very good receiving core. We just brought in a Rimington finalist to fix the biggest unknown on offense.
Defense is going to have more challenges, but I think another year with Macdonald could continue to see him fix some holes in his game planning/playcalling/philosophy that could have big payoff. Further, by January of next year, a playsr like Will Johnson may not be playing like a true freshman anymore.
I am not saying that winning a game in the CFP next year is likely, I don’t think it is “shoot the moon”. I acknowledging that being undefeated going into Ohio State, beating Ohio State, winning the big ten championship game, winning a semi-final game and then winning the championship is shooting the moon, but falling one win short of that and going 14-1 is not totally farfetched.
Imagine a slightly different this year:
MSU - any of the following happen
- Corum catches early pass from McNamara and has significant gain
- Fumble recovery in end zone ruled correctly
- Corum/McCarthy don’t mishandle snap
National Championship seeding:
- Georgia doesn’t shit the bed against Alabama and we have a two/three game with Cincinati
That is a non-shoot the moon scenario to 14-1.
If you believe this team can go into the CFB undefeated, a favorable 2-3 seeding is not a shoot the moon scenario. Longshot - yes. Shoot the moon - I don’t think so.
There are onlya small number of teams every year with a realistic path to the CFP - given what we know now, we are one of those teams next year,
January 3rd, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Like you, I am very optimistic that the '22 Michigan team can be every bit as good as the '21 team (more versatile on offense but the D has some big shoes to fill)...
Michigan should be considered as one of the handful that have a decent shot at making the playoff in '22.
But...making the playoff versus winning it all... The overall roster talent gap between where Michigan is at and the top 3 most talented rosters is just so much bigger than in prior eras...
January 3rd, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I would like to know which "one or two plays" because I assume you mean the Hawkins strip and recovery when the game was tied and the Erick All touchdown. At Nebraska I don't think it's wild to think that they force a field goal kick from a kid who went 50% on the year and was 3-8 from 30+. At Penn State, Michigan was across the 50 and moving the ball down three with 3+ minutes to play. They needed another 20-25 or so yards and you'd be looking at 39-44 yard field goal to tie. Nebraska is not guaranteed a score if Hawkins doesn't strip it, and Penn State is not guaranteed a stop if All doesn't make that play. I liked that they made those plays and we didn't have to find out though.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:27 AM ^
Don't compare football to basketball. Football has made a January 1/NY6 bowl every full season. Meanwhile basketball is getting blown out by UCF with back to back Top 3 recruiting classes.
We play msu at home and at indiana.
With the 2022 schedule, 10-2 would be a failure.
Also msu is a MUST WIN.
We already let a 6th option dipshit head coach be the only coach in their history to start 2-0. Fucking ridiculous.
11-0 headed into The Game.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:37 AM ^
Jesus settle down
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:40 AM ^
Comparison was meant to show what an exodus of veteran leadership can do to even a seemingly talented roster. I think if the D can find new leaders or say Hill/Ojabo comes back then the sky is the limit.
Hinton/Smith are primed to be those leaders.
January 3rd, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Franz, I disagree about the esteemed Sparty coach being a dipshit. I have nothing but the highest regard and respect for Mr. Personality, Coach Melvin Mothertucker.
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:36 AM ^
15-0
National Champions
January 3rd, 2022 at 4:41 AM ^
Objective?
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
TBF, Darker Blue had one of the most accurate preseason outlooks of anyone on this blog coming in to this year.
If the man says 15-0 then 15-0 it is.
January 3rd, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Math checks out
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:20 AM ^
What is the likelihood that we are 'in Ohio's head' and will dominate the rivalry for the next decade or so? This year showed we can stand up to a high-powered offense and take it to a non-Georgia defense. Maybe this is the turning point where Ohio's confidence begins to crumble.
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:39 AM ^
All of that is true and people are who they are until they prove otherwise. I don't yet by the Ohio State doesn't have a problem on defense that may very well continue next season. Their defense also has another problem named j j McCarthy. The talent with he, donovan Edwards and Andrel Anthony is obvious.
January 3rd, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
Don’t forget All and Bell.
January 3rd, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
OSU went and hired the best available DC they could find. I can't imagine they aren't taking The Game seriously now.
That doesn't mean we can't win. We fondly remember John Cooper for a reason.