247 Talent Composite: How far away is Michigan from competing in the Playoff?
With another year of college football in the books and Michigan still searching for titles, I wanted to look at where the Wolverines stacked up in comparison to the playoff teams we've seen over the years. 247 tracks the talent on the roster and rather conveniently has done so since Harbaugh's first year at Michigan.
What stands out:
Talent matters, but only to the extent of coaching, conference and the state of your rival.
Alabama has made the playoff every year except this one and has been 1 or 2 in talent each year. It took an injury to their star QB to knock them out of this year's edition.
Oklahoma has made the playoff four times with less talent than Michigan, but plays in a weak conference and their main rival has been down for a number of years.
Clemson is in the same boat: Florida State routinely has more highly regarded players than Clemson, but due to the constant coaching turmoil, cannot put it together.
Speaking of FSU, they combine with USC to squander the most talent on a yearly basis. Each team has never finished outside the top 6 in the composite and yet have not made the playoff over that time period.
If you aren't in the top 2/3 in talent in your conference, there is almost no chance you make the playoff. Only two teams have - 2015 MSU and 2016 Washington. Washington was 4th in the Pac-12 and MSU was 4th in the Big Ten. And that's not even taking into consideration the fluke it took to get MSU in the playoff in 2015.
So where does Michigan stand in all of this? Unfortunately, they have everything going against them: They play in probably the 1st or 2nd most difficult division in the sport as well as in the 2nd most difficult conference. Their main rival replaced a legendary coach with probably the only upgrade available and now his protege has taken over and appears to have them firing on all cylinders, so OSU falling off does not look like a solution to the problem. They've yet to recruit or develop a Burrow/Watson type to get them over the hump in the fashion of LSU/Clemson. While the program finally seems to have coaching stability, the inability to win big games has likely put a ceiling on the level of talent that can be brought in in any given recruiting cycle.
You'll note that Michigan's best chance of making the leap occurred in 2016: Ohio State was down relatively speaking, Michigan was near their peak and likely underrated given guys like Glasgow, Stribling, Chesson, etc. + all the experience. Michigan came at the king and damn it all, they missed.
So unfortunately, the answer is what it always is these days: Michigan is toppling (some way, somehow) Ohio State away from making the leap.
https://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
2015
Clemson 13
Alabama 1
Michigan State 23
Oklahoma 16
Michigan 9 (Ohio State 3)
2016
Alabama 1
Clemson 9
Ohio State 5
Washington 24
Michigan 8
2017
Clemson 9
Oklahoma 16
Georgia 4
Alabama 1
Michigan 7 (Ohio State 2)
2018
Alabama 2
Clemson 6
Notre Dame 10
Oklahoma 11
Michigan 8 (Ohio State 1)
2019
LSU 5
Ohio State 2
Clemson 9
Oklahoma 8
Michigan 11
January 14th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
6 bagmen away
January 14th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
Logged in to say the exact same thing. It's pretty obvious now.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
We are elite QB play away. That's pretty obvious. Switch QB's with any playoff team and we are in and they aren't.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
You think with Jalen Hurts Michigan would've gotten in over OSU? I don't.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
....and an elite O-Line, elite running back, elite Defense, and other than Nico, some elite wide receivers away. So close, yet so far...
January 14th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
Far. Really far. Like in a galaxy far, far away far.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
OSU is the roadblock.
Without OSU in the conference, Michigan goes to the playoffs in 2016 and maybe 2018.
But UM isn't going anytime soon until OSU takes a step back or UM plays over their heads and beats OSU. Since UM withers in big games, don't expect UM to be in the Final 4 for quite some time. Maybe they can make an expanded 8 team, if OSU doesn't blow them out every year.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
they could make it like the Alabama team that didn't win the division but still got in the playoffs, but they would need some things to break their way, basically the big-12 and pac 12 to not have a cfp team. But they have to go 11-1 and the 1 loss being close to OSU, which hasn't happened in any season under JH. The other way to get in would be a three way tie with say PSU and OSU, where UM wins the tiebreaker.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
2016 wasn’t close?
January 15th, 2020 at 10:05 PM ^
2016 was close, that's exactly the kind of loss - 2OT on the road, questionable officiating, that could have gotten UM in if they won the Iowa game.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^
OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, and Oklahoma are all in your way. Soon, Miss State and Ole Miss will be too.
January 14th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, and Oklahoma are all in your way. Soon, Miss State and Ole Miss will be too.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
What would happen if Michigan moved to the B1G West?
January 14th, 2020 at 11:24 AM ^
We'd struggle against Wisconsin every year they're good and we play them away.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
That's already happening now.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
Yes but we wouldn't have that guaranteed end of season buttrape waiting for us each season.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^
Exactly!
January 14th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
Probably would have gotten two or three cracks at the conference title game...but would have had to face OSU more than likely so might not have changed much. Maybe in 2016 they beat them on a neutral field.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Two or three cracks against OSU for a conference title on a neutral field might be worth not having to go to the shoe every other year.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
Michigan would win the division half the time and Ohio State would embarrass them one week later than they already do.
January 16th, 2020 at 5:51 PM ^
Unfortunately, you're probably right. People can look at all the different options and scenarios they want but it still comes down to beating OSU. End of story.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
Well, people would still want OSU as a locked in cross-divisional rival, so they'd likely play them back to back most years and get beat 2 times per year by them instead of just 1. Sounds fun!!
January 14th, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^
My suggestion implied they don't face them every year unless they both make the conference championship.
January 16th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
I get that, but it would never ever happen in reality.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
We would still struggle any time we played at Iowa or Wisconsin. And probably Minnesota now.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
This is the real question of the Harbaugh era: Why is Michigan - routinely a bottom half of the top-10 talent composite - trading wins with Wisconsin, a team who has never been ranked higher than 33rd?
Penn State and Notre Dame make sense, they are roughly on par with the those teams. But there's no real reason Michigan shouldn't be at least 3-1 vs. Wisconsin. They shouldn't be 2-2 with two double-digit losses.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
The 2017 loss gets a pass IMO since that whole season was a disaster. Even though 8-5 is a shit record, not losing the team was a good coaching job.
This year was bad though. Wisconsin made Michigan look like they didn't belong on the field against them. There's no way that a disinterested Alabama isn't superior to the Wisconsin team that embarrassed Michigan. The coaches failed against Wisconsin.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
Maybe there's something to the suggestion that motivating players on the road is not as easy as it is at home and the current staff isn't good at it.
There are a lot of things Coach Harbaugh is really good at, but pre-game pep talks is not one of them.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
How is struggling against Iowa and Wisconsin in that scenario different than what they're doing now?
January 14th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
It's not. Some people's argument is that we would play in the big ten title game more often if we were in the West. The counter to that is we would still struggle on the road at those places probably eliminating us from getting there.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Almost certainly we would have played in the Big Ten title game in 2016 and 2018.
I know the schedules would be different but both Michigan and Wisconsin finished 7-2 in 2016 and Michigan won head to head.
In 2018, both Michigan and Northwestern finished 8-1 and Michigan won head to head.
Michigan's schedule was almost certainly more difficult those years as the West is better than the East, so moving to the East probably wouldn't have made a difference.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
You got your compass headings reversed but I got your point. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference but having to play Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska every year instead of OSU, PSU, MSU and IU seems preferable.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
At this point, this has absolutely nothing to do with needing better recruits. Guys, we don't do anything with the talent we DO get! Just look at those composite talent numbers since Harbaugh has been here. We've out-talented every team in the B1G except for OSU and yet we continue to trade games with the likes of MSU, Wisconsi, PSU, Iowa, ND, etc.
At this point, there's a clear coaching and development deficit in the Michigan football program. We constantly "out-talent" our opponents and yet consistently struggle. And when was the last time we saw highly recruited and talented players come to Michigan and just light up the field?? MAYBE Peppers? Devin Bush Jr. was really good. Chase W. was really good....and uh...yeah. We aren't developing and improving our players with any level of significance and it shows because we have never won a game we weren't supposed to win and the only time this team has fought back and won after getting punched in the mouth (that I can think of at the moment) was that Northwestern game a year or two ago....NORTHWESTERN folks, NORTHWESTERN. While I respect the hell out of coach Fitzgerald, that team is so inferior talent-wise that it should never even come to that.
Point being is this: We won't get better recruits on any semblance of a consistent basis until we start proving on the field that we can fully utilize the recruits we already have. I mean my gosh, look at the putrid on-field numbers by our star-studded WR class we took a few years ago. We literally got the best WR in the country that year and the closest he ever got to 1000 yards receiving in a single season was 2018, coming in just over 600 yards. Or Nico Collins, or Tarik Black, or Oliver Martin, etc. Horrible numbers relative to the expectations when they first got here.
And a lot of you will say "That's the QB's fault for not being able to throw the ball". And you'd be partially correct. But who's fault is it that our QBs are so mediocre? Who's fault is it that the best QB on the team can't throw further than 15 yards? Or who's fault is it that our WRs rarely get good separation or constantly drop passes that do hit them in the hands.
After five years, it's abundantly clear that we have an issue when it comes to developing and coaching up the talent we do get and it shows on the football field because we consistently play down to our competition, despite having almost every conceivable advantage on paper, and we never play up to competition better than us.
We don't need to cry about the number of 5 stars we get, or how many guys are in the ESPN top 100....we need to do a better job coaching and developing the players we do have first. If we can demonstrate substantial improvement and development of the players we already have, that will translate to on-field performance and THAT will draw the better players in....that and handing out rolls of cash to players after games, but you know....who's counting
January 14th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
I . . . cannot disagree with anything you wrote
January 14th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
So are we to assume you think we should move on from Harbaugh? That's not going to happen unless he walks.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
I don't believe that. A lot of people around me this year were talking about getting rid of tickets. My uncle gave them up after 40 years. If Harbaugh has another failure of a season you have nothing to sell fans and they won't come back unless they have a new source of hope to sell.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:21 PM ^
You call 9-4 a failure season when we're only 5 seasons removed from 5-7 in Hoke's final year?
I don't think people are going to jettison season ticket rights as fast as you suggest when they're consistently getting 10-3 seasons.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
9-4 is still a failure...sorry. Unless we're completely giving up at winning any sort of championship besides a life championship.
The ticket prices are out of control for a 9-4 and 10-3 team.
January 14th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
Bo went:
8-4 or worse four times in 21 seasons
Lloyd went:
9-4 or worse four times in 13 seasons
Jim went:
9-4 or worse two times in 5 seasons.
If 9-4 is a failure then what does that say about Lloyd and Bo?
I think we need to pump the brakes on the hyperbole. 9-4 is not where anyone in the program or outside it wants to go but it's also not a failure. By that logic anything short of a NC is a failure.
January 14th, 2020 at 6:23 PM ^
They also weren't playing 12+ games back then. You're comparing apples to kumquats
January 14th, 2020 at 8:33 PM ^
Yup.
Rutgers and Maryland are two automatic Ws every year, except that one time.
January 15th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
Bo's last 4 loss season happened in 1987. They had bad conference teams back then too. Prior to Rutgers and Maryland being admitted teams like Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin took turns as conference doormats.
Of UM's 8 wins that year, one was versus Northwestern (29-6). These were the Dennis Green/Francis Peay seasons where Northwestern went 2-9 or 3-8 every year. Another win was against Wisconsin (49-0) that was in the midst of the Don Morton era where they finished at the bottom of the conference almost every year.
January 15th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
4 losses is 4 losses, besides the fact that they played fewer games makes the 4 losses even worse as a percentage.
January 14th, 2020 at 9:41 PM ^
I personally don't think 9-4 is a failure. But being so ill prepared at NT is an issue to me. And I think it belies a deeper problem of preparation. That's the issue I have with Jim Harbaugh.
January 16th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
One of those 8-4 years for Bo, UM actually won the big ten. Lots of Bo's losses were in bowl and NC games, here are the conference records:
Bo - .874 big ten winning percentage
Llloyd - .787
JH - .711
January 14th, 2020 at 9:59 PM ^
We’ve given up our tickets after 30 years and there are 8 other families in our tailgate group doing the same this year. Partly because we’re tired of the ticket prices/fees, difficulty in making travel plans due to not knowing what time kickoff is, and last but not least - the current product on the field. Fully support the effort that is given by the players, but something is lacking and we will support them from our living rooms in the future.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^
Couldn't get any more painfully truthful than this.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
The level in which I disagree with your post is difficult to put into words. Take a poll of all coaches in HS, College and the Pro level and Jim Harbaugh plus Don Brown will show up in the Top 20 for their development skills on every single card. Blaming coaches on player development is the cheap and easy out that does not require an ounce of brain usage. Don't take it from me - take it directly from the coaches mouths - :57 in listen to what Gattis had to say about Shea Patterson's lack of off season work that concerned him - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrQmpXUvPpw&t=58s. In a sport that is now dominated by the Quarterback Position, Michigan's QB choose a summer of playing golf over football. Never once did any coach, any announcer, any side story or in game report ever call Shea Patterson the hardest worker on the team, a guy that put extra time in film study, extra time in the summer putting together workouts with the team - Hell the man wasn't even voted team captain as a Senior returning starter on his team. Blame the coaches if it makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside, but Shea Patterson choose golf over championships and big wins. Read articles about Rudock his only year at Michigan - he put in 8-10 hours per day at Bo hall to get ready for his only season which ended with him in the NFL. Read about Justin Fields who doesn't even know what the campus looks like in Columbus since he spends every moment he can at the football complex, pull up video of Jalen Hurts lifting weights in the most intense session I can recall AFTER playing a full game, read about Joe Burrow's 30 hour film sessions and countless workouts outside of practice with his skilled players then let's do a fair evaluation. I will bet my paycheck, that the QB's that led their teams to championships and especially the 4 that played in the playoffs put in three times the work hours that Shea Patterson did. Coaches are only allowed a certain amount of hours and that is why in today's college football world - the Champions put in the work when no one else is watching which Shea Patterson did not do.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Who decided to give him almost every meaningful snap?
January 14th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
This is what has me scratching my head. Why, with all the "talent" in the QB room, did he stubbornly stick with Patterson all season. There's some key piece of information missing.