Saturday Best Bets
Please post your bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games. I'll start:
(Last week record: 5-2, Overall season record: 32-24-1)
Bets:
Memphis at East Carolina, Noon Over 65
Southern Miss at Marshall: 3pm, Southern Miss +3
Penn St at Michigan: 3:45pm Michigan -10.5*
Missouri at Florida 4pm, Florida -6
Duke at Miami, 7pm , Duke +9.5
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State 7:30pm, Louisiana Tech +23.5
Utah St at Hawaii Midnight, Utah St -19.5
Breeders' Cup Bonus Play:
#6 (McKensie)- Win (6-1 odds)
Exacta Box #6, #11 (McKensie, Mind Your Buscuits)
Noteable spreads of discussion:
*Michigan currently sits as -12 point favorite in a majority of the books
Alabama currently sits as a -14 favorite over LSU (at LSU)
Notre Dame currently sits as a -10 favorite over Northwestern (at Northwestern)
Ohio St currently sits as a -19.5 point favorite over Nebraska (at Ohio St)
Michigan St currently sits as a -3 point favorite over Maryland (at Maryland)
All spreads:
November 2nd, 2018 at 10:48 PM ^
I'm really looking forward to Hotel Putingrad's "Smooth Jimmy Lock of the Week" play!
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
It was touch and go a few days ago, but with the right thing finally being done, Maryland is most definitely Smooth Jimmy's "Lock of the Week "
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
My Master Lock Pick of the Week
Oregon -10
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:01 PM ^
FWIW, it's Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State (not Ole Miss), with MSU favored by 23.5.
I'd La Tech against that - they played LSU fairly well in Baton Rouge and they're really not too bad. Just hope they don't find themselves with any 3rd down and 93 like last year vs. MSU.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
Thanks for the correction on Miss St. Mods , please edit the OP to that if you see this. LSA.. I know you usually pop in on these threads :)
Edit: thanks for the edit
Yea La Tech played them very well last year. Hoping they can do the same.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
Maryland beats Sparty straight up
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^
I'm not usually a big fan of feelings ball takes but right now for that program it seems like those players are ready to make a statement.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
That game really has some high variance to it , it would seem. I am interested to see if MSU;s offense starts to gel just a tad with Lombardi in there.
November 3rd, 2018 at 12:34 AM ^
Eh idk. That'd be great for the players and everything but they've had a lot to deal with this week and I can't imagine everybody involved (coaches and players) has been able to focus on just football.
November 3rd, 2018 at 8:17 AM ^
I've actually mulled over this game since the Durkin Debacle - this one seems like it is hard to read. On one hand, I do think Maryland is bringing incredible emotion to this game, but on the other hand, this is the sort of matchup that MSU typically wins, and "it is Maryland" qualifiers apply too.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
I'm in a CFP pickem pool and these are my 10 games.
Nebraska +20.5 @ OSU
Texas State +6.5 @GaSt
South Alabama +16.5 @ArkSt
NcSt -6.5 v FSU
WVU +1.5 @ Texas
TCU -7.5 v KSU
UK +9.5 v UGA (all had to pick game or I'd have avoided)
Charlotte +20.5 @ Tennessee
Alabama -14.5 @ LSU (Also a must pick or I'd avoid)
FAU +3.5 @ FIU
November 3rd, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
Take Alabama. They're gonna win by 30.
November 3rd, 2018 at 8:44 AM ^
Nah...I’m taking the 14 points and LSU*...I’ll go with Bill Simmon’s advice and take the home dog only if I believe they can win outright...and since an LSU win is bad for UM (despite what Brian or anyone else believes), I’d say it’s almost guaranteed to happen.
*i don’t actually have any $$ on this
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^
Florida is a loser. Mizzu is the play there. Nebraska looks also to be a solid bet. Like Maryland too but more so because it’s a noon road game for MSU. Have to see what line does tomorrow for Michigan still.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^
For a late game, I like UCLA. Yes I know Speight but extra time to prepare plus the whole line movement thing.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:21 PM ^
I will say that Florida has been one of the most publicly bet teams, percentage-wise, this week and the line has basically stayed about the same. And so that bodes will for Missouri if you go by that factor, which has been a big factor in favor of the bookmakers in recent weeks especially. I bet Florida early in the week btw... :/
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:49 PM ^
Not recently, always. NFL is the exception because of fewer games but you won’t win money betting heavy public favorites. I’d say that it’s likely 3 of those 4 games are good. If first 3 come in, stay away from UCLA.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
True on NFL in recent weeks, especially last week. New England covering Monday night capped off a real shitty NFL weekend for Sportsbooks/Bookmakers.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:15 PM ^
Ohio State at home +19.5 over Nebraska feels like easy money.
I’ll take the points with Northwestern. That game will be closer than 10.
Laying the points with Bama. They are a steamroller and LSU being without White for the first half will help put that to bed early.
Florida -6 over Mizzou all day. That is a confusing line.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
I definitely lean Northwestern as well. Stadium will be about half ND fans but I'm sure NW is used of it. It's one of those odd games I'd feel a bit more confident in NW at home vs ND if it was a noon game compared to a night game.
Meyer traditionally does very well off a bye against the spread, so I'd lean OSU even though there was some early week sharp money on Nebraska.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:35 PM ^
So my buddy who graduated from penn state and is constantly giving me crap about harbaugh and under achieving just angered me into a bet that we go 100 of the line 30 minutes before the game. This pissed me off because the last three years we never have gone off the line just straight up. After 20 texts of harbaugh bashing I said that’s fine but if Michigan wins but doesn’t cover I am going to send you something of the equivalent value of 100.00 dollars, and you have to wear it all weekend when Michigan is in the big ten championship game. He agreed. So I will be sending him a harbaugh jersey if that happens. Bottom line is I like Michigan to win but not cover, but they proved me wrong with Wisconsin and state so I am hoping they prove me wrong again.
msu cover 2.5
lsu 6 point teaser over
georgia 6 point teaser over
northwesterb 6 point teaser and the over
4 team parley
msu
ok state
Iowa
Georgia
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
If you lose the bet send him a shredded $100.00 bill…..or 10,000 pennies (although funny, it might not be funny enough to justify the expense).
November 3rd, 2018 at 7:49 AM ^
Take NW with the points and pour the martinis!
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
Not sure why so many people like Notthwestern. I think ND wins fairly easily.
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
Here's what I have. I got Michigan and NW the day they were posted.
Michigan -10
Iowa +2.5
Oregon -10
Kentucky +9
Utah - ASU under 56
Georgia Tech -5
Wisconsin -28
Northwestern +10
Ohio St -21
And it's me against the rest of the betting world -- LSU +14.5
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
I like Michigan line too which is not usual for me.
Michigan (-12) vs Penn State
Ohio State(-18.5) vs Nebraska ***Lock***
Duke (+9.5) vs Miami
West Virginia (+2) vs Texas
Iowa (+2.5) vs Purdue
Northwestern(+10) vs Notre Dame
November 3rd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Memphis at East Carolina, Noon under 65
Southern Miss at Marshall: 3pm, Southern Miss +3
Penn St at Michigan: 3:45pm Penn State +12.5
Missouri at Florida 4pm, Mizzou +6 Duke at Miami, 7pm , Duke +9.5 Louisiana Tech at Mississippi 7:30pm, Mississippi -3
Utah St at Hawaii Midnight, Hawaii +19.5
November 3rd, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
Money line:
Akron
Pittsburgh
navy
byu
Nebraska
Louisiana Monroe
Baylor
Cal
ASU
Florida Atlantic
UCLA
Iowa
North Carolina
FSU
wake Forest
northwestern
illinois
MSU -3.5
South Florida -7
LSU +13
Hawaii +17.5
UNLV +24.5
U Conn +17