Michigan up to No. 7 in ESPN's FPI, favored in all games but OSU
Don't think I saw this posted, but Michigan is now ranked No. 7 in ESPN's FPI rankings. They were at No. 9 last week.
The other notable change is that FPI has Michigan favored in all games except Ohio State now. Last week, they had them losing to Michigan State. Notable games:
@ Northwestern: 76.7%
Wisconsin: 68.6% (UW is No. 11 in FPI)
@ Michigan State: 55.1% (No. 13 in FPI)
Penn State: 56.4% (No. 12 in FPI)
Ohio State: 24% (No.3 in FPI)
September 10th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
I think maybe they need to tweak their Left Tackle Coefficient a little bit. Not sure we're #7 at this point.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
These %’s mean little. I think we could go on a nice run though.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Still favored in all games except OSU as of now.
Lose the game against Wisky and the MSU & PSU games will change in a hurry. Win all three of the gauntlet games and watch the OSU prediction needle move to the middle.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Did you get laid today? You still lead with the negative but you let a little bit of sunshine sneak thru the clouds. This is down right optimistic.
Made my day.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
I'll pick up the slack then.
In my mind there's 0 way we win @MSU. As we just saw against ND, we can't beat good teams on the road. And even if MSU isn't as good as their record was last year (which they probably aren't), they're still probably an 8-4/9-3 which is top 25.
Relatedly early returns on our DTs aren't great. I have little faith that group holds up all game long vs Wisconsin. And I have 0 faith in our OL(OTs) against any half decent team. So I'm struggling to see a win there as well.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Only way we lose is if Lewerke runs all over our hyper aggressive and over committed defense. It can happen but I'm not betting on it.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
Harbaugh wants that game so much you might see Rashan Gary at tackle. They will beat MSU, if they don't win any of those other games.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
Pretty sure the Harbaugh wants it so much vs a rival line has been used before every rivalry game since he got here. The only team we beat was 3-9 MSU. I'll believe it when I see it, that line is played out.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
Well, the two games we lost to MSU went down to the very last play (and in the first, we were ahead when that play started). We haven't had trouble playing with them or OSU. Just finishing the deal.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
Well luckily in football you don't need to finish the game.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Sick burn!
But to say we have 0 chance based on how the last three went doesn't really make sense.
September 10th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
I think UM beats MSU, splits Wisconsin/PSU and loses by 21+ to OSU in Columbus (they finally have an actual qb who looks scary good).
9-3 regular season. That's not bad considering the schedule.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Or our OL self destructs and we can't move the ball at all. We turn the ball over a bunch/keep putting our D in terribke situations. Which at this point to me is likely.
When we're on D, Lewerke can break runs. Our DTs can continue to struggle giving MSU easy running lanes. Lewerke can continue moving the ball in the air. We can continue to be overly aggressive and give a bunch of free penalty yards.
People said the same stuff about ND and Wimbush. They put up 21 in the first half and it wasn't because of Wimbush scrambles. It was part of the reason, but not the big issue.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
If we run power all game with Shea rollouts to crossing routes sprinkled in, I don’t see us losing to anyone but OSU.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
I don't know about that. Going to have to hit some deep shots against Sparty and Wiscy to win those. We'll see if the OT's can hold up long enough to do that.
September 10th, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^
Tell us more Uncle Rico.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^
0 chance huh? You're not good with percentages.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
You obviously didn't stay up late on Saturday if you think MSU is good.
September 10th, 2018 at 9:32 PM ^
MSU is not good between 1AM and 2AM ~2000 miles from home in 90 degree heat. I am glad they lost, but extrapolating from that game is a fool’s errand.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
I don't understand this obsession with focusing on the one or two positions where we may not be an "A." This is college football. Other than maybe a few exceptions, every team has at least a few spots where the level of play is less than optimal.
At this point, it's safe to say that we are probably better at 18 of the 22 starting positions than we were last year. We brought back starters at RB, WR, TE, C, RG, LG, DE, LB, S and CB. We brought in a relatively proven commodity at QB.
I'd have to guess that most teams are not better or more experienced at 18 of the 22 starting positions than they were last year. I think it's also a safe guess that RT will be at least equal to last year....and that at least one of the DT positions could also be equal to last year.
That leaves us with two spots that might take a step back from the level of play that we had last year. Not to mention that the punting game looks good so far...and kicking is bound to be about equal to last year.
Sounds like a pretty good position to be in.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
Not an A is a nice way to describe the F--- that are our tackles. Not being an A is one thing, being flat out awful is another. Bragging about the RT being equal to last year when it was pathetic last year isn't a good thing.
I'm not focusing on the two spots that "may not be A's". I'm focusing on the major reason why we just lost another rivalry game on the road where we put up 10 offensive points and 58 rushing yards with god awful pass protection.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
At worst, our tackles are equal with MSU's right now, but their tackles will face Gary and Winovich and ours will face whatever Wilekes and Panasiuk. They have better DT's than us but that is the strength of our line, their center is complete trash to go along with their tackles. My point is you really don't know what youre talking about.
September 10th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
Bambi is a sad little deer. :(
Good thing we don’t have weak asses like you playing on the team.
September 10th, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
I put the number higher than 0, but I still think our win percentage @MSU is significantly less than 50%. If Hudson and Mayfield start SMU and are showing us lights out work all the way up to MSU, then Ill start to believe. But as it is, unfortunately I'm more to Bambi's side than not. I don't see us favored in that game.
I will say that the 21 points vs. ND in the first half is a bit misleading because of that semi-Hail Mary TD - I think there was some luck in that - and missing Metellus, etc. Second half seems more indicative, even though ND played more conservatively.
September 10th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
The only reason msu is likely to be an 8-4 team is that their schedule is pretty favorable (read: crap). Their remaining games against ranked opponents include:
- @psu
- vs Michigan
- vs osu
Their toughest games otherwise are:
- vs Northwestern
- @ Nebraska
- @ Maryland
- Maybe vs Purdue
And then they play Rutgers, Indiana, and CMU.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
Most likely it's because his Browns are undefeated going into NFL Week 2
September 10th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
This is the latest the Browns have been undefeated in 14 years. They have not managed to go without a loss in their first two games since they came back, so they have a chance to have their best start in the history of this incarnation of the franchise.
As a Cleveland-area resident who really doesn't care about the Browns (other than Peppers), I find this hilarious.
September 10th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
So hilarious I posted it twice.
September 10th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
The browns look to be in decent shape. They actually drafted a good corner as opposed to drafting over rated guys like Gibson.
September 10th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
Well thanks I guess but I do think my current reputation as a pessimist isnt really fair. I pride myself on being a realist, not overly up or down on the program as a rule but merely a reporter of what I'm seeing and my predictions are based on fact, not emotions or feelings.
I'm the guy that we're supposed to go golfing and the weather forecast calls for massive thunderstorms says "let's reschedule" not "fuck it, let's go. Maybe it wont rain and besides i REALLY want to go golfing." Decisions based on fact (crappy weather forecast) not emotion (I really want to go golfing). Does that make me a pessimist?
Want I want to happen (Michigan winning) has zero bearing on what I think will happen. So if what I see makes me think we're gonna lose I predict that (and I did with Notre Dame) and for that I'm labeled a pessimist. If I think we're gonna win I predict that (like i did incorrectly last year against OSU) and then I'm labeled an optimist. But I really dont think I'm either one - just a coldly rational old dude whose seen a LOT of football over the years.
September 10th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^
. . . old dude whose seen a LOT of football over the years
That's the salient point. When you've seen a ton of Michigan games over many years, it keeps you from being just a blind homer.
Other schools have D1 athletes on scholarship too. Other schools have insider practice hype too. Other schools improve from last year too.
Wimbush hits dimes, at home, at night, that he did not hit last year. Then he reverts back to his normal self a week later.
Shit happens.
September 11th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
Exactly, mgrowold. While these statistics are nice and all, I take them a lot like early polls. No one knew if we were #14 in the country or whatever we were preseason. No one knows if we should be favored going into the tough games. These predictions are very much based on what we do moving forward. And just as mgrowold said, if we win in our tough stretch, these numbers will obviously hugely change, and mean very little now.
That being said, it was a good talking point and distraction midweek for football fans.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
If we get improvement everywhere across the board and especially OL the skys the limit. I for one am not going to get too down about our OL just because of the ND game, yea they looked bad but ND has a huge DL, I would bet ND wouldve made Wisconsins OL look bad in that game. Not saying that we are great on OL but just saying.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
Its all about how much the tackles can improve and/or how much the coaches can scheme around them. The rest of the team is as good as anyone in the Big Ten. Talent-wise, probably only second to Ohio State (and really not that far off).
September 10th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
In all honesty, there is as large of a talent gap between UM and osu and there is between UM and a team like Rutgers or illinois. M is in fine shape but OSU is in a postition that only a handful of programs can realistically say that they have as much talent.
September 10th, 2018 at 8:26 PM ^
This is demonstrably not true. Michigan has played OSU competitively the past 2 seasons. Rutgers lost 52-3 to OSU this week.
September 11th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
Remember 1969 - a 7-2 UM team beat undefeated #1 OSU. Anything can happen in this game. I was there.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
#9 in the S&P+. This could be a team the computers love because they will hammer lesser opponents and lose close to good teams.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
That Wisconsin number seems like a trap, but otherwise I don't see Michigan not being really good against anyone else on their schedule save, sigh, OSU.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
Agree. And my bold prediction is that we beat the piss out of PSU.
That wasn't nice what they did to us last year. Let's see how they do without their OC and once in a generation RB.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
And still projected to go appx 8-4. Sigh.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
We will get rewarded like every year in the Harbaugh reign because we destroy lesser opponents and our defense grades out extremely well against bad teams.
Wisconsin will show us what we are.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
We didn't destroy anyone last year (or really 2015 for that matter).
September 10th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
We had 3 shutouts in a row in 2015, that's pretty destructive.
September 10th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
Alas, the ol' "no one else plays bad teams" arguement that makes no sense whatsoever.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
We'll beat Wisconsin because it's at home. If it was away, I'd probably have us losing.
But we will win that game, and be undefeated at home for the year.
September 10th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
I'm having trouble seeing that... I think UM likely beats PSU and msu but loses to wiscy.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
didn't think this was worth another thread, but Michigan is at #9 in S&P rankings, #3 on Defense. Bama #1, Wiscy #6.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
I would feel more comfortable about those statistics were ND ranked higher than #17.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
If I remember right, they say those stats need 5-6 game' worth of data s to work themselves out.