Will Michigan win the Leaders ( oops I meant Legends) in 2011?
As we get ready to enter BIG play and 1/3 of the season to evaluate do you think M can win the Leaders? I don't think M wins the Leaders this season, but is exceedingly nice to see M exceeding my expectations. The schedule doesn't favor the Wolverines. M, MSU and Minn all have 3/5 games in Legends on the road, while Iowa, Nebraska, and NW play 2/5 on the road.
I have to make Nebraska my fav to win it. If they protect their home turf and can get a win at M or Minn they will win it
Michigan
Legends games
Home: Minn and Nebraska
Away: NW, MSU, and Iowa
Leaders games
Home: Purdue and OSU
Away: Illinois
Minn.
Legends games
Home: Neb and Iowa
Away: Mich, MSU and NW
Leader games
Home: Illinois and Wisconsin
Away: Purdue
MSU
Legends games
Home: Mich and Minn
Away: Neb, Iowa and NW
Leaders games
Home: Wisconsin and Indiana
Away: OSU
Nebraska
Legends games
Home: MSU, NW and Iowa
Away: Minn and Mich
Leader games
Home: OSU
Away: Wisconsin and Penn State
Iowa
Legends games
Home: NW, Mich, and MSU
Away: Minn and Neb
Leader games
Home: Indiana
Away: Penn State and Purdue
NW
Legends games
Home: Mich, Minn and MSU
Away: Neb and Iowa
Leader games
Home: Penn State
Away: Illinois and Indidana
September 30th, 2011 at 12:09 PM ^
No, because they aren't in the leaders...
September 30th, 2011 at 12:09 PM ^
well, the first thing is conference record, not divisional record, so you probably ought to include their full conference slate.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^
Not only that but I should probaly get the correct damn division. Aw shit, this is turning into more time than I want to spend.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
I hate to tell you you are wrong, mostly out of fear you are only to prove me doubly wrong, but I found this at http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092611aab.html Here is the main thing as far as divison games
The Value of a Division Win: With the beginning of divisional play, the Big Ten has instituted a new tiebreaker to determine the Big Ten Football Championship Game participants, if necessary. After head-to-head matchups, the next tiebreaker is records within the division, which makes winning divisional games an important part of the Big Ten title chase. The opening week of conference play features two divisional games, a Legends Division showdown between Michigan and Minnesota and a Leaders Division matchup between Indiana and Penn State.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^
Divisional play is the second tiebreaker, after head-to-head, between teams that have the same conference record, ie are tied.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^
Yes, that sunk in after I posted the tiebreaker rule, I was waiting for someone to point it out.
So it is
1. conference record
2. head to head
3. division record
If nothing else, I am firming up my knowledge of what it takes to win the damn Legends. Hope it helps some other poor schmuck as well
September 30th, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^
And 4th is BCS ranking in case of the nightmare OU-TT-UT situation in the Big 12 South a few years ago. Which... I guess at that point you're out of good options for tiebreaking.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
when they say head to head, don't they mean like if M and Nebraska are both 6-2, the winner of the game between M and Nebraska wins the division, right?
But since they will have to have played each other, the head to head will be the first and only tie breaker as there can be only one winner of that game.
Confused in Columbus...
September 30th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^
It matters if there is a three way tie (the head to head to head can come out all even). Imagine if M, MSU, and Nebraska all finish 9-3. M beat MSU, MSU beat Neb, Neb beat M. You then go to the divisional record.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
thank you kind sirs.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^
The problem comes in when Michigan, Nebraska and MSU all finish 6-2 and go 1-1 head to head
September 30th, 2011 at 3:52 PM ^
That's what happened in the Big 12 South three (?) years ago. Texas Tech, UT, and OU all finished 11-1. Tech beat UT, UT beat OU, OU beat Tech. They went to the BCS standings to determine who went to the Big 12 championship, the problem, of course, being that the BCS being the BCS, weighted the most recent loss the hardest, so OU went despite losing to UT.
UT people were hotly annoyed (imagine that) but there's just not a very good third tiebreaker, I guess you could go the soccer route and use point differential, either in the conference or between the teams that remain tied (the latter might be the best route).
September 30th, 2011 at 4:34 PM ^
September 30th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^
It's too early to even guess, honestly...
I'm going to give the OP the benefit of the doubt and assume they meant the Eastern Division (also known as Legends)
September 30th, 2011 at 1:18 PM ^
I think we need to wait until after we play a decent B1G team before even thinking about this. Minny will not be a proper gauge IMO.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^
Conference re-alignment?
Aside from that...yeah, let's start the conference season tomorrow before we talk about this stuff.
Be supporting the LBJ with U of M Alumni Club Seattle in Belltown tomorrow! Go Blue!
September 30th, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^
We're not in the Leaders. Just remember how "Leaders Division" and the "Leaders and the Best" are perfect synergy. Then remember how bad the B1G is at branding our division structure. Thus we're not in the Leaders.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised at all to hear that the conversation included Delaney telling Brandon that Michigan couldn't be in the Leaders when they came up with those brilliant names because people would think the division was named for us.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:26 AM ^
That's actually exactly how I remember it. I think to myself "we're the Leaders and Best, therefore a logical thinker would put us in the Leaders Division." Then I think to myself "the people in charge of the B1G are not logical thinkers, therefore we are not in the Leaders Division."
September 30th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
do i think we are going to go undefeated thru conference play? No
Do i think we have a chance at finding ourself in indy after losing a couple? Sure
September 30th, 2011 at 12:18 PM ^
I think we have a good shot. The B1G is weak this year. Nebraska, IMO is the only real tough game we have, and I still think they're beatable. Plus they'll lose a few (Wisconsin).
September 30th, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^
I'm kind of in this same boat too. I don't see anyone who is an absolute juggernaut this year. Everyone is beatable and every week is not out of the question. They always say it will be decided during the last week of the season, but for once it probably will be.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^
With no one in the division looking partiularly deadly at this point, I suppose it's possible, but I really don't think it's likely. Look, I really don't want to get my hopes up 4 games into the season; we've been down this road before. I don't want to be set-up for disappointment. I'm pleasently surprised by our team's progess through the season so far, but we still have a long way to go. We cannot win the division without a passing game. We don't have a strong enough D or RBs to be able to do that. I'll wait until after the MSU game to make a judgement if it is possible. Others should do the same.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:41 PM ^
That's the thing: no passing game = no dice. But Denard's performance in the second half of the ND game shows that he clearly has it in him. It's just a matter of getting all the little things down and performing at that level on a reasonably consistent basis. That might happen, it might not. Who knows.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:23 PM ^
Too early to tell, after a few more games might have a better idea. In fact, if you give me 8 more games I will be able to eliminate all thinking.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^
Good, I will give you 8 games. By that time I might even have a grasp of what goes into winning the Legends.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^
We can win, but right now, the odds are against us.
We will probably have to go through with 1 loss, maybe 2 at most.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:33 PM ^
I think Michigan can win any of its remaining games. I also think it can lose several of the remaining games. Until Denard poses a real passing threat, it's hard to imagine the Maize and Blue winning the LEGENDS division.
I am pleasantly surprised by the defense.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^
As mentioned above, overall conference record determines division winners. So including all B1G games, Michigan's schedule is pretty favorable.
The only way Michigan's schedule becomes even more favorable is if they played Indiana instead of Illinois for thier third cross divisional match-up. The schedule can't be any easier, especially with having OSU and Neb at home.
I think in the inaugural season of divisional play that the Legends division will come down to a tie breaker with multiple teams at the top of the division having a 6-2 record. It's a deeper division with 5 teams that can beat anyone in the division and there is no clear cut favorite (Nebraska's schedule is too tough to be a favorite right now) unlike the Leaders division (Wisconsin).
Given the parity in the Legends division and that I am of the opinion that each team will have at least 2 losses, I think Michigan has a chance to be one of those teams tied for first and has a small chance of winning it outright.
Then again it is way too early to tell.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^
I think that the Legends is too close to call at this point. While Nebraska is the favorite, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Michigan, Iowa or State won it. Plus, if Persa is fully healed, I would even throw Northwestern into the mix.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^
Nebraska has the most difficult out of division schedule by far, hosting OSU and going on the road against Wisconsin and Penn State. Nebraska could lose all 3 of those games.
September 30th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^
No one has any idea. I can't remember a season in which we knew so little about a Michigan team after 4 games. Defense has been solid (relative to last year, anyway), but hasn't really been tested by a big, physical offense. Denard's passing has mostly been poor, but the second half of the ND game shows that he has it in him. We're 1/2 on FGs, but there's no indication that Gibbons has actually improved from last year. As with any transition year, there's always the possibility that we could suddenly hit an epiphany at which point everything comes together and starts clicking (a la Notre Dame after the Tulsa game last season), and this team definitely has the ingredients to do some damage. There's also the possibility that point never comes. I could see us tanking like '09, I could see us going 4-4, and I could see us going 8-0. Who knows, really.
September 30th, 2011 at 2:11 PM ^
Agreed about the overall record, but the defense actually looks fairly good independently. It's not '97, but we do have the 13th ranked scoring defense. The yards don't look very good, but the scoreboard this season has been great.
September 30th, 2011 at 2:05 PM ^
I think our schedule is favorable in that we have easier cross-over games than Nebraska and MSU. All 3 teams have OSU but Michigan has Illinois and Purdue while Nebraska has Wisconsin and Penn State and MSU has Wisconsin and Indiana.
We need Wisconsin and OSU to win this week to get us off to a good start.
While we would be an underdog, likely to Wisconsin, in the B1G championship, anything can happen in a single game.
September 30th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
The fact that Nebraska has a much harder B1G schedule than we do is the key here. I don't think, at this point, that we're a better team than Nebraska. However, since the difference between our schedules are that when we play Illinois and Purdue, Nebraska plays Wisconsin and Penn State I think we have a good shot. Plus, Nebraska's toughest divisional game (likely us) is on the road late in the season.
If we beat Nebraska at home, we'd have a hard time not going to the champ game, unless MSU or Iowa really gets on a roll. If we lose to Nebraska, we probably have to win every other game, which is also possible since none of our other opponents are incedibly tough, and our highest ranked (only ranked, actually) opponent is #24 Illinois.
That said, let's beat Minnesota and Northwestern and then see how everything looks. We won't know too much after next week.
September 30th, 2011 at 3:54 PM ^
I generally agree with the above, and that Nebraska's non-division schedule is tougher. Illinois, however, might be better than Penn State, which reduces the differential somewhat. (Purdue is, um, not better than Wisconsin).
September 30th, 2011 at 3:27 PM ^
YES! I mean NO, ahhhh...maybe. Screw it - Hell YES.
(Never mind my uber lame posts, almost to 100...hee hee hee what happens?)
September 30th, 2011 at 3:30 PM ^
I hear at 10,000 you can trade in your points for Jessica Alba. I'm not sure who you would get for 100. Maybe one of the also-rans for the 1994 Miss America pagent?
September 30th, 2011 at 3:32 PM ^
A 10-2 Ohio team that is 3-2 in it's division (6-2 in conference) would win over a 9-3 MSU team that is 5-0 in it's division and a win over Ohio State (5-3 in conference)??
By "win" I mean advance to the B1G Championship Game.
September 30th, 2011 at 3:35 PM ^
OSU and MSU are in different divisions, but if you substitute OSU for M, then yes.
- Overall conference record
- Head to head
- Division record
- BCS ranking
September 30th, 2011 at 4:01 PM ^
The way I see it, Michigan has three make or break games in order to finish in the top seat of the division; Nebraska, Michigan State, and OSU. If they can come up with 2 of 3 wins in these games, they have a very realistic shot at finding themselves in Indy. However, Its too early to make predictions. We're just starting the BIG 10 play.
GO BLUE!!
September 30th, 2011 at 5:04 PM ^
I would say that we have an outside chance because of our schedule, but I want to see what we look like against Minnesota and Northwestern first. The best way to see how we may figure into divisional play is to see us play in our newly re-aligned, beloved conference.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:17 PM ^
After our road games against NW and MSU! If we win them, I think we'll have a great chance for at least a tie for the division lead.