technical flyover

Michigan’s victory over Ohio State was both entirely foreseeable and yet shocking.

As I noted in the preview…

“There really is good reason for Michigan to believe they can hammer away at Ohio State’s inexperienced defensive front and pick up steady gains. Oregon did it with a weaker and less multi-faceted offensive front. The Ohio State defense who lost to Oregon is still there somewhere, buried under the scarlet, grey, and offensive deluges which have shielded them from exposure.”

Michigan out-rushed Ohio State 297 to 64.

They whipped them in both trenches, despite their oft-bemoaned “inferior” recruiting, and won a classic Big 10 snow game.

The season came down to a 4th quarter drive with Michigan up 35-27 and 4:13 remaining on the clock. The Wolverines came out in a spread set, isolating their front six against the Buckeye front six, and ran a counter scheme. Hassan Haskins powered through a massive hole and broke a late arm tackle by the Buckeye Mike linebacker for 17 yards.

Four plays later and the Buckeyes weren’t even trying but instead allowing Michigan to score (as though it would have made a difference) so they could get the ball back for their own offense.

Two minutes of clock used up and seven more points on the scoreboard. Ohio State couldn’t manage anything on their next drive and soon the field was covered with exuberant Michigan fans. Ohio State was beaten. A Big 10 Championship could be next! A National Championship could be next?

[BREAKING DOWN MICHIGAN’S BIG WIN AND POSTSEASON CHANCES AFTER THE JUMP]

Michigan had a few new features to their game against Indiana.

Everyone knows the Wolverines have the main test of their season and Jim Harbaugh's reclamation project coming up on the schedule. The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the four programs who've shown they have the resources and capacity to win a Big 10 East crown, Harbaugh is 3-3 against James Franklin's program. They're up next.

We saw Michigan mix in three approaches against the Indiana Hoosiers which are liable to matter against Penn State and the remaining schedule.

Mike Macdonald played some coverages designed to take Ty Fryfogle out of the game and force Indiana's freshman passer Donaven McCulley to beat them without his top target. The Hoosiers were forced to try and force the ball to tight end Peyton Hendershot (who also received some attention) and lean on the quarterback run game in order to try and move the ball.

J.J. McCarthy got a lot more snaps and passing opportunities in this game than we've seen in previous contests. He was 5-10 on the day for 55 yards at 5.5 ypa with zero touchdowns and an interception.

The offensive line mixed in some new running schemes to an already jam-packed arsenal of play-calls. They ran outside or "stretch" zone for perhaps the first time all season and they ran two different varieties of the scheme.

All of these developments are likely to matter for the Wolverines against Penn State and for this final stretch of the season.

[EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE JUMP]

Which team out-rushes who is not as meaningful a statistic as it's often made out to be. In a rivalry game like Michigan vs Michigan State, when one team out-rushes the other 199-146, it's no more meaningful.

Michigan out-gained the Spartans 406-196 in the passing game, which would seem to seriously outweigh the run game deficit. They also matched the Spartans in the turnover department, each team had two and it appeared Michigan State should have had three.

None of those factors were the problem for Michigan in this game.

The problem was this:

• Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins: 27 carries, 104 rushing yards, 3.9 ypc, ZERO rushing touchdowns
• Kenneth Walker: 23 carries, 197 rushing yards, 8.6 ypc, FIVE rushing touchdowns

"Didn't you just say it doesn't matter so much who out-rushes who?"

What matters is that those three players happened to be the three best offensive players for these two teams. Cade McNamara was able to produce 383 passing yards at 8.7 ypa with two touchdowns and a single interception late when the game was already all but lost. None of this damage was enough, it couldn't stick. Michigan isn't built to beat teams throwing the ball with Cade McNamara to this Ronnie Bell-less cast of receivers and while they did a credible job, they couldn't do quite enough without Corum and Haskins doing the heavy lifting. In particular, they could pile up yards between the 20s but they couldn't find the end zone.

Meanwhile, Sparty routinely got big plays from their star running back Kenneth Walker who repeatedly found the end zone and converted several key downs.

You can out-gain an opponent and beat them up and down the box score but if they make a few key plays that virtually ALWAYS end with the running back in the end zone, you will still lose.

[HOW DID MICHIGAN STATE GAME THE MATCHUPS? MORE AFTER THE JUMP]