jon runyan
I've never been more excited for the NFL Draft.
This has little to do with the players involved, nothing to do with my on-again off-again relationship with the Detroit Lions, and everything to do with the fact that 32 NFL GMs—by and large the aging dads who need their children to log in to Netflix—will be attempting to conduct the entire draft via a remote group-chat setup. By now, many of us have experienced the pitfalls faced by inexperienced Zoom/Hangouts/Skype users. The tension just to see if picks get in on time is going to be incredible.
"We've hired four computer folks and we're completely re-doing the back-end of our college and pro scouting systems" – Dave Gettleman discusses the Giants' advancements in analytics pic.twitter.com/uJKQ9fkpxA
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) December 31, 2019
Godspeed, computer folks.
There are other compelling reasons to tune in besides gawking at technological train derailments. Michigan looks poised to have as many as nine players selected over the next three days, including two who could go in tonight's first round.
The First-Round Candidates
can't teach this bend [Bryan Fuller]
Cesar Ruiz entered the draft a year early after a rock-solid college career at center. Like his play, his draft projections are very consistent. He's the #31 player on The Athletic's consensus top 300 big board and most mocks I've seen have him going in the last ten picks of the first round. ESPN's Mel Kiper expects him to go somewhere in the 20s and his final mock sends Ruiz to the Patriots at #23. As NFL.com's Lance Zuerlein says, his ability to play multiple spots on the interior line could help him get into a starting lineup early in his career:
Athletic and tenacious with the combination of skills and technique to fit into a variety of blocking schemes on the next level. Ruiz wins early with initial quickness and fast hands into first contact. He works to convert early advantages into wins. He's consistent in securing down-blocks and has the athletic traits to become a second-level factor. He'll give some ground to power rushers and needs help against wide-bodies, but the tape checks out. Ruiz has early starting potential and should develop into a good pro with guard/center flexibility.
Ruiz is Michigan's best bet to get his name called tonight. He's projected as the first interior lineman off the board. Since 2000, there's been only one draft (2017) in which the first round passed without an interior OL selected.
On the other hand, Josh Uche is one of the draft's bigger wild cards, which befits his time as a Wolverine. Unfortunately, a lot of Uche's draft uncertainty comes from perceived mis- and under-utilization in Don Brown's defense. Here's a scathing scout take via The Athletic's Bob McGinn:
“He was so underused there,” one scout said. “With his ability to bend the edge it’s ridiculous. He can affect the quarterback from a bunch of different angles. Michigan really did this kid a disservice. For as versatile as this kid is he should never leave the field. He can run. He can cover. I thought he was the best defensive player in Mobile besides (Javon) Kinlaw. He’s super conscientious. He would have run high 4.4s, low 4.5s and jumped close to 40. All that stuff people don’t know.”
The next scout quoted believes Uche is a 3-4 outside linebacker at the next level; I agree. The third scout produces an all-time "did you watch the right guy" quote [emphasis very much mine]:
“Little guy,” said a third scout. “He’s not a very good athlete. Nothing against the run. No burst as a pass rusher.”
That's up there with "Devin Bush lacks sideline-to-sideline speed." I mean...
...what in tarnation?
Anyway, Uche is the #62 player on the consensus top 300, but he sneaks into the back end of a couple first-round mocks—The Athletic's Dan Brugler projects him at #27 to Seattle. He may go tonight if a team with the right system finds his potential too tantalizing to pass up; he may fall into the second round (as he does on The Ringer's mock) or even the third if the lack of film and positional uncertainty scares teams away in a year there isn't a lot to go on.
[Hit THE JUMP for seven more players with a solid chance to be picked plus more roster candidates.]
[Lead image: Bryan Fuller]
REMINDER: Hail to the Victors 2018 is nearly done. Get your orders in! Also of extremely less significance: don’t forget your daily CFB Risk marching orders—daily MVPs still get 200 MGoPoints you can spend everywhere MGoPoints are accepted.
Previously:
This week: Previously we did the five-stars so “Only recruiting rankings matter!” guy can send that to his three-star-loving pal. Now it’s “Recruiting rankings don’t matter!” guy’s turn to forward a link that proves nothing except we’re short on #content in the offseason. Also it’s badly named because I’m including 2-stars. Also also it’s going to be more focused on their recruiting stories since you probably know enough about their Michigan careers.
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Rules: There are two ways to make an all-under-recruited list: a) the best of all those who qualified, or b) performance relative to recruiting rankings. I think b) is more fun, but you end up leaving off too-obvious candidates. I’m going with a combination of both: best eligible player for how I construct my team, but if it’s close the lower-ranked recruit gets in.
Also it’s by college production, not NFL.
Cutoff Point: Had to be less than a 3.9-star based on my composite recruiting database—which goes back to 1990—who earned a scholarship. For reference that means Carlo Kemp is eligible and Jibreel Black is not. To avoid guys that one scouting service just ignored we’re leaving out anyone who made a top-250 list for two or more services or anyone’s top-100 (which means Mike Hart is disqualified because HE WASN’T A THREE-STAR except to the two services that left online databases.) Also not doing special teams because they’re always rated 3-stars.
Preemptive Shut Up, Stars Don’t Matter Guy: There were 278 players who fit the criteria in my database, compared to 93 who got any kind of fifth star, so if you’re comparing this team to the team of blue chips remember you have to sing three times as many players to get this level of quality. For reference here are the fates of Michigan recruits 1990-2018 by recruiting ranking:
| Rating as Recruit | Drafted | UDFA | No NFL | MLB | Still playing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2- or 3-star | 9% | 5% | 66% | 0% | 19% |
| 4-star | 20% | 9% | 51% | 0% | 20% |
| 5-star | 35% | 18% | 25% | 1% | 21% |
Conclusion: Recruiting rankings matter, but they’re just a guideline
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Quarterback: Tom Brady
Yes I did say this is only based on college production. I admit to being a “Put in Henson” guy, right up until a few games into 1999. Michigan that year had OL problems due to injury and Tom Brady was surviving while Henson was constantly getting driven from the pocket. The MSU game—a loss—sealed it as Brady nearly brought Michigan back from a massive deficit.
As a recruit he was on the borderline between three and four stars. His video is out there too if you want to see what the scouts did, which was a crisp passer with a great feel for the game and tiny chicken legs you’re afraid will snap the first time he’s sacked. USC had first pick of Cali QBs, could get five-star Quincy Woods, and over the strong objections of OC Mike Riley, took local boy John Fox as their second dude even though then-USC head coach was, like Brady, a Serra alum. UCLA took Cade McNown so Brady’s second option was out. Stanford was in the area but chose Chad Hutchinson and Tim Smith, whom Lemming rated just behind Brady.
By then however Brady was a senior and Michigan had had him on campus and made him their first target for 1995 QB. Moeller (Excalibur was a few months in the future) and QB coach Kit Cartright already had a stocked QB room between Scot Loeffler, Jay Riemersma, Brian Griese, and Scott Dreisbach, so they were staying out of the crazy battles over Dan Kendra and Bobby Sablehaus, the #1 and 2 overall players, in the class. Michigan’s other real target was Chad Plummer, who went to Cincy.
Honorable Mention: John Navarre, Brian Griese (who technically walked on but only because his dad offered to pay), Wilton Speight, Scott Dreisbach, Jake Rudock
[After THE JUMP: I post the 313 video again, twice]
[Fuller]
Talk about the progress you’re seeing in the first few weeks.
“You know, it’s been really good. The guys have been working hard. Had a great summer. There’s a really good vibe. They’re fighting. It’s been really just a pleasure watching them grow, excel, learn, and then become a team.”
Tim [Drevno] talked a couple weeks ago about the division of responsibilities, [how] you taking the tackles kind of frees him up as an offensive coordinator to do a little bit more that way. How have you seen that division work for you guys?
“When coach Harbaugh and I talked a long time ago and then when I met coach Drevno, whatever helps us win, I’m 100% in. My history obviously leans toward offensive line play, so if I can help coach Drevno and free him up or help coach Hamilton in some way I’m going to do it, but really we’re just a really good, close group of offensive coaches working together. No egos, and it’s been awesome.”
How’s that battle at right tackle so far?
“As far as those things go, we’re just—our focus is on us and developing these kids and correcting things. Everybody’s doing really good things and everybody’s doing some things you want to do better. At this point in camp really legs are tired, guys are fighting, and so it’s a situation where you’re really trying to bring the stress level up and individually correct and develop, and as we get through camp I think separation occurs. It’s a little too early to tell right now.”
Jim was saying that on the offensive line, nobody can block Mo Hurst. I guess Rashan Gary, Rashan’s been pretty good. What—
“Wait, wait, wait. Rashan’s been very good. No ‘pretty.’ Nothing ‘pretty’ about it.”
At that elite level, is it a cause of concern for you and the offensive line or do you look at the level of competition—
“I don’t have to play him this year. I’m on the team with him, so I’m watching him. You know the old saying ‘Iron sharpens iron.’ When you’ve got guys and they’re coming in and you’re trying to prepare them to play, who you practice against plays a big part in that. And while you can’t go every single snap every single day against Rashan or Mo, what does happen is it becomes competitive. And so when it becomes competitive it brings the level of play up for guys.
“Mason Cole may not need that; he’s a four-year starter. We’ve seen him in a lot of game reps, but when you take guys that maybe haven’t, being able to get in there and compete and get some game-level intensity reps helps. And those two guys are unbelievable and coach Mattison and the whole D-line are unbelievable. We love it and going against them, you win some, you lose some, but the biggest thing is we’re stressing ourselves to become a more cohesive unit.”
[After THE JUMP: on Mason Cole, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Jon Runyan, and getting a group (not just a starting five) ready]
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