five stars

Previously: Last year’s profiles. P Tommy Doman Jr. S Rod Moore. CB Ja’Den McBurrows. LB Jaydon Hood. LB Junior Colson. LB Tyler McLaurin. DE Kechaun Bennett. DE TJ Guy. DE/DT Dominick Giudice. DT George Rooks. DT Rayshaun Benny. NG Ikechukwu Iwunnah. C Greg Crippen. C/G Raheem Anderson. T Giovanni El-Hadi. T Tristan Bounds. TE Louis Hansen. WR Cristian Dixon. WR Xavier Worthy. WR Andrel Anthony Jr. RB Tavierre Dunlap. RB Donovan Edwards. QB JJ McCarthy.

The final recruit we need to talk about barely needs an introduction. He is the architect of his own class, a composite five-star quarterback, though he finished a super-high four-star to all the sites. He is the national recruit who bought in early, committing to Michigan the spring after the program’s dismantling at the hands of Ohio State’s crossing routes, and the *same day* John Beilein bolted for the NBA. Even the hockey didn’t look great back then, and McCarthy would have known, because he’s enough of a skater to have appeared on the Chris Heisenberg google sheet all the hockey nerds keep bookmarked.

But this is what McCarthy does. When Michigan’s at its lowest, he pops up to say “It’s fine. We’re great. We’re going to be greater.” This is the guy who organized that visit for all the 2021 and 2022 recruits for last year’s Wisconsin game, watched *THAT*, and then had several five-stars close to committing here in the aftermath. He singlehandedly turned Chicago into a pipeline as productive as Don Brown made Massachusetts. The most negative thing he’s said in the two years and change since his commitment was he wants the fans to be more supportive of the guys.

Positive rah-rah guys are uncommon, but of limited use. What sets McCarthy apart from others who set ludicrous expectations is McCarthy has an extraordinary track record of meeting them. He also plays quarterback.

[After THE JUMP: Michigan is a hockey school.]

Previously: Last year’s profiles. P Tommy Doman Jr. S Rod Moore. CB Ja’Den McBurrows. LB Jaydon Hood. LB Junior Colson. LB Tyler McLaurin. DE Kechaun Bennett. DE TJ Guy. DE/DT Dominick Giudice. DT George Rooks. DT Rayshaun Benny. NG Ikechukwu Iwunnah. C Greg Crippen. C/G Raheem Anderson. T Giovanni El-Hadi. T Tristan Bounds. TE Louis Hansen. WR Cristian Dixon. WR Xavier Worthy. WR Andrel Anthony Jr. RB Tavierre Dunlap.

We did it! Somehow, despite producing the most perfect running back for college football in 2021 at the most perfect school for Michigan recruiting, we managed to get Donovan Edwards to come in just under five stars in the composite, thus rescuing him from the fate of every 5-star Michigan RB since Tyrone Wheatley. It was a near run thing:

Five-stars start at 0.9831. If one tiny site realizes Ohio State’s own scouts liked Edwards more than the TreVeyon Henderson they got, does a comparison of NFL production to recruiting rankings and notices there’s a flaw in underrating Midwest players, or watches a football game that took place after 2007, there’s your .0025 points, and the jig is up.

Keeping Michigan’s #1 target in the 4-star zone was almost as challenging as keeping him home. Edwards was no help, popping to the top of his class as a freshman, and finishing his career as Mr. Football in Michigan while leading West Bloomfield—WEST BLOOMFIELD(!)—to its first-ever state championship in the state’s highest division. He left no flaws in his game: speed, strength, vision, body type, acceleration, agility, academics, PERSONALITY. He lined up at quarterback, running back, slot receiver, and WIDE receiver, where he ran real post, zig, slant, and corner routes, and connected. Oklahoma, Georgia, and Ohio State all had Edwards the #1 back on their boards, and were telling this to their recruiting people. Thank Denard for deaf ears.

We could not have done this without the help of ESPN, who ranked SEC-bound Damon Payne and Garrett Dellinger, as well as ND signee Rocco Spindler, ahead of the guy all of those guys’ coaches voted the best player in the state. ESPN also had to shoehorn 27 players committed to SEC schools, and 30 from the Southeast ahead of their 7th-best player in the Midwest. Rivals wasn’t so blatantly propping up a business venture, but they too ignored the pleas of people who bothered to watch the best football team in the best of states, and we are forever grateful.

It could have been a consensus, but Steve Lorenz betrayed us again, allowing the 247 people he has no control over—the same people who look most closely at their re-ranks and commissioned a study a few years back to uncover their own blind spots—to push Edwards all the way up to a “98” in their final re-rank. That’s higher even than they put Zach Charbonnet, as if that wasn’t what ultimately doomed every Fargas, Baraka, Grady, Green, Walker, and Isaac to get a fifth star. Midwest analyst Allen Trieu, speaking directly to us I am sure, tried to spin this while explaining they moved Edwards up because they could find no reason not to:

“I am sure the nay-sayers will point to the recent history of five-star backs who have signed with Michigan. The results have not been favorable. We cannot punish Edwards, a prospect with no real glaring weaknesses at this point, for the results of other recruits who he has no connection with though.”

That’s not how curses work. The Angry Michigan Five-Star Running Back-Hating God is wroth; if the recruiting services were to find a way to visit the future and report back exactly which RBs are going to be crazy sick awesome, AMFSRBHG will just have to find a more creative way to make us wish we never dreamed. In this case, all they have to do is banish the forward pass, or at least vanquish the idea of throwing to a running back from our coaches’ minds. See? There’s always a way.

[After THE JUMP: Immutable god meets adaptable force.]

Pads on.

Time to hit. #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/gFtvGl9RGL

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) March 30, 2017

You gotta love how they’re so used to Gary wrecking things by now that only one person whoops. Also Carlo Kemp looks ready. We have mixed feelings on Mason Cole murderating Winovich. More discussion is in the thread.

CHOPPING LIVERS

[Bryan Fuller]

A couple of all-star diaries were posted this week from user matt D on 2017 hoops recruit Isaiah Livers. We front-paged the offensive one on Monday. Here’s the defense one, and a taste:

Helpside Defense/Rotations

Inconsistent. Shows ability to make proper rotations at times, but too often is caught stagnant and doesn't rotate at all. Needs to improve reaction time on helpside rotations, has ability with athleticism and size.

The posts include films cut up by the OP where you can see what he’s seeing. The ability is there but there’s still a lot of defensive development.

While we’re on the subject of basketball’s near future, AC1997 made us a diary trying to project who will play next year. AC’s not expecting a 10-man bench—and thoroughly demonstrates why—and challenges the reader to find two regulars off the bench from Brooks, Poole, Livers, Teske, and Davis. I’m guessing Brooks comes into minutes later in the year like Simpson did, and that we don’t see a lot of Poole or Livers. Teske and Davis will be normal backup centers, with one getting 30% of minutes and the other 10% or so.

SO ABOUT FOOTBALL: WE GON’ BE GOOD?

Well…

…Ecky Pting did some S&P+ analysis versus things we know about our opponents and it still looks like 3rd in the Big Ten East, and that or 4th in the conference. Michigan at Penn State will be the difference between an excellent season and, like, a Citrus-y one. Ohio State is on another level.

WHAT’S A 5-STAR RECEIVER?

Bones032 stole my thunder a bit since I have an article coming up on DPJ comps. But he also made my job way easier by finding every 5-star receiver since 2000 and tracking their freshman production. Conclusions:

That means 59 players played their freshman years.

21 had over 500 yds receiving

19 had at least 5 receiving TDs

21 did some return duties

Also just 1 in 5 was a freshman All-American. This seems consistent with the 5-star-to-NFL rate, which is about 50% will be pros, 20% will be 1st rounders, and that’s more than double the rate of 4-stars.

The Mathlete is working on something similar right now by % of total position starts taken by year in program. Everyone shoots up as juniors, but it does seem the larger the human, the more slowly you develop.

[After THE JUMP: everything you need to know about parenting a child to 18 hours]