Sponsor Note. Annoyed by the fact that approximately 10% of UV links go to the Athletic? Well, tough nuts, buddy, they've got Brendan Quinn, Nick Baumgardner, and Bruce Feldman so that's how life is these days.

The good news is that the Athletic has hired damn near everyone so you can get coverage of all your teams in one place. Speaking as a beleaguered USMNT fan, they are best-in-class there as well.

Also good news: they're running a 40% off special if you use our link right here. No ads, no pop-ups, no clickbait. Even we can only say two of those three things.

Fumble numbers. We had the Mathlete run the numbers on Michigan's fumble rate and ahyup this is an absurd outlier. Here's a graph of fumbles lost on run plays during his D-1 college career (ie, Stanford and Michigan):

Over the years in his database the average teams fumble on 2.2% of plays and lose those 1.1% of the time; Harbaugh has been at 1.8% and 0.9%; this year it's 4.5% and 2.2%. So: Harbaugh teams generally fumble a little less than average and while that's probably just luck it is also luck, of the very bad and hair-pulling variety, that Michigan's losing fumbles at double the rate of an average team out of nowhere.

[After THE JUMP: Onwenu arises.]

Exit Mustapha Muhammad. Muhammad had fallen to fifth on the depth chart at TE, behind both a classmate and a true freshman, so now it's portal time for him. Timing is a little bit odd, so there might be an explanation beyond playing time.

Michigan returns their entire TE corps and currently has Matt Hibner and Nick Patterson in their 2020 class, so Muhammad's departure probably won't have much on-field impact.

I guess there must have been some typos. PFF put out a mid-season All-America team featuring two Michigan players on the first team: Ambry Thomas is first team "flex" and is currently leading the country in passer rating when targeted…

Lowest passer rating when targeted, Power-5 CBs (min 15 targets):

Ambry Thomas, Michigan: 17.2
Trevon Diggs, Alabama: 24.0
Keith Washington, WVU: 26.5
Al Blades Jr., Miami: 27.5
D'Shawn Jamison, Texas: 27.5
Michael Ojemudia, Iowa: 28.0
Jevon Holland, Oregon: 29.2

— Cam Mellor (@PFF_Cam) October 14, 2019

…and Mike Onwenu is first team at guard.

That latter is a bit of a surprise: Rivals has been publishing PFF numbers after games and Onwenu has not been grading out particularly well there. This was in fact a subplot in a UFR when Onwenu checked in with a +9.5 to me and emphatically not that to PFF, where ~64 is average:

Like Onwenu being bad?

uh

PFF gave him a 59.

uh

So when you see this…

Onwenu, meanwhile, has consistently been graded as Michigan's best offensive player throughout the season, checking in with an overall grade of 81.8. …

His 83.1 grade in the run blocking department is the highest on the team, while his 81.8 mark as a pass blocker is second only to senior left guard Ben Bredeson's 93.

…giant question marks erupt from your head. There's got to be a disconnect somewhere; per Rivals Onwenu had a 67 against Illinois, a 59 against Rutgers, a 67 vs Iowa, and a 70 vs Wisconsin. (He did crush Army with a 91.) Either an intern is entering data wrong or there's some normalization step that isn't in the Rivals-published numbers. Supporting evidence: Kwity Paye apparently has an 87 grade and at no point have his game numbers touched that.

In any case, I'm happy to see that PFF is seeing approximately the same thing I am. Onwenu has consistently gotten heat from the crotchety old man segment of the fanbase when his play hasn't warranted it. Will this help? Absolutely not. But I didn't like being at such diametrical odds with the only other major service that charts games.

But the downside. The above All-America team and related tweets have four former Michigan players or commits: BC running back AJ Dillon, WVU CB Keith Washington, Minnesota CB Benjamin St-Juste, and Missouri DT Jordan Elliott. Elliott was probably too much of a flake to stick at Michigan even if he hadn't flipped to Texas—you'll note he didn't stick at Texas—but the other three guys are a wee bit painful.

Two point decisions, explained. Your inevitable Athletic link is Chris Vannini on the outbreak of aggressive two-point attempts:

Here’s the basic math when trailing by two touchdowns: Say you have a 50 percent chance of converting a two-point attempt. Across two potential attempts, you have a 50 percent chance of winning the game in regulation (by converting the first one and making the PAT), a 25 percent chance of going to overtime (missing first, making second) where you have a 50/50 shot and a 25 percent chance of losing in regulation (missing both).

That means you have a 62.5 percent chance of winning if you go for two first, compared to 50 percent if you play for overtime. Those numbers aren’t exact; they change based on team and obviously assume making the extra point, which Miami didn’t, but that’s the gist. The strategy is also backed up by a 2017 FiveThirtyEight study. …

This idea is gaining steam in the NFL. In 2018, the Eagles used the strategy, cutting a deficit to six instead of seven, giving themselves a chance to win on an extra point if they scored another touchdown. The Giants attempted the same thing a few weeks later, but they missed the attempt. It has come up again this season. Now this idea is spreading in the college game, and Miami wasn’t the first one.

I have to admit that I thought this was going to be a bridge too far for coaches. Going for two when you draw within nine is still controversial; I didn't think 2019 was the year that dependent trials broke through into the football mainstream. And I sure as hell didn't think that Pat Fitzgerald—who spent most of the offseason muttering about phones and how the Youth are poisoned by them—would be leading the charge.

Lack of homecoming halftime, explained. Sounds like the MMB got a ton of crap for ditching the traditional homecoming halftime show. They released a document describing what happened:

Reason for the change – the NCAA is examining ways to improve safety for everyone, necessitating changes to be made. Due to the lack of sideline space in Michigan Stadium, these changes pose unique obstacles. Visible changes that you may have noticed include a geographical reduction of dedicated media areas, limited numbers of media personnel on the sidelines, reduction of bench personnel to 60 non-players, elimination of pathways behind the home bench, and reduction in the number of issued field credentials and on-field auxiliary personnel (cheer, dance, visiting bands, and ROTC).

b. When the change occurred – The MMB & UMBAA were notified after the Athletic Directors’ (NCAA) meeting in April that changes were necessary. Unfortunately, due to the timeline, limited options for adapting the 2019 edition of “Blast” were available.

I don't get why the band sitting in the corner is a problem now when it hasn't been a problem for the last 100 years but at least it sounds like the pushback was loud and they'll do what they can to fix the situation.

UTLIV. This was obvious and is now official:

THIS JUST IN: Our game vs. Notre Dame (10/26) will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/JTJUSIuZe8

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 14, 2019

I just like that "UTLIV" sounds like a drummer in a Swedish death metal band.

Yikes. Griffin Luce got ejected from Saturday's Clarkson game for this hit:

The hit in question: pic.twitter.com/lZNNHBKUof

— Bailey Johnson (@BaileyAJohnson_) October 14, 2019

And has been suspended for Friday's game against LSSU. Michigan held Cam York out on Saturday, which was painful as Michigan struggled to get anything going, but he should be able to return this weekend. Michigan had already decided to roll five defensemen late, leaving Jake Gingell on the bench, before the Luce hit—they don't appear to have much faith in anyone past their top six.

Etc.: Minnesota C Eric Curry out for the year with ACL tear. Approaching Poor Damn territory. "I was a scalper" long read is entertaining. A deep dive on the 2001 Northwestern offense. No break for Dantonio on his upcoming deposition. Will Lockwood profiled.