2020 preview
Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense. 5Q5A: Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
| Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
| 2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
| 2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
| 2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
| 2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
| 2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
| 2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
| 2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
| 2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
| 2016 | +0.54 (24th) | 13 | 6 | 3.54(5th) | 7 | 5 | 1.69 (39th) |
| 2017 | -0.31 (90th) | 10 | 7 | 3.23(8th) | 10 | 11 | 2.77 (111th) |
| 2018 | +0.38 (35th) | 11 | 6 | 10.5% (3rd) | 9 | 3 | 5.4% (43rd) |
| 2019 | +0 | 9 | 11 | 9.0% (16th) | 9 | 11 | 6.1% (61st) |
Michigan was dead even a year ago and shouldn't be expecting a major swing to the good or bad. You would expect QB turnovers to increase with a new starter who's just a sophomore. One point in Michigan's favor: despite having outstanding pass protection their sack rate allowed was middling, which goes back to QB play. They probably won't be facing a big spike in QB pressure events that are the most frequent source of TOs.
[After the JUMP: one ominous switch]
Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense.
1. What's the point of anything if OSU is just going to put up 60 on us?
Well… you see… I mean… you know?
Your author has to admit that every time he gets even slightly intrigued about football happening he quickly remembers that OSU has put Michigan in a blender the last two years, and there's no real reason to expect it will stop. I am still not over two years ago, when Michigan entered the OSU game with the #1 pass defense in the country, by both regular and fancy stats, and was systematically dismembered because their third cornerback was suddenly a giant liability.
The idea that might be a fluke went out the window last year. And now we're looking at a season where the corners are Vincent Gray, who might be okay, and the vague hope someone out of the hodge-podge of other guys breaks through. And then they need a nickelback.
I don't mean to be a downer, but what's the mechanism via which Michigan gets from gives up a zillion to anything else? To my eye the best argument you can muster is that hiring Bob Shoop gives Michigan a crafty zone expert who can anticipate and defeat OSU's approach. That feels extremely thin, because he's not the defensive coordinator.
The other way Michigan could turn around the last two years is to have a defense that's on par with OSU, talent-wise. This is not that year.
[After the JUMP: good news! we got the depressing stuff out of the way]
Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.
1. Can we have some speed in space this time?
give it to the atom [Patrick Barron]
Probably. Last year's edition of this post went to a lot of trouble projecting what Josh Gattis's offense would look like based on the scraps Michigan provided in spring:
Michigan did mix in a number of plays that hinted at an evolution of last year's arc read system and a new frontier in misdirection and wide plays. … [this looks like] what Michigan's going to try to do on the ground:
Reads. Two of these plays are genuine post-snap reads, and many more were sprinkled throughout.
Edges. Michigan threatens the edge on all these plays. The split zone that kicks it off freezes the playside DE because McCaffrey is a threat to keep and the arc is a threat to have that keep go a long way. A stretch naturally tests your edge. Then a speed option and the capper: threatening one edge and attacking the other one.
Tight ends. Gattis has the offense but he's not sticking his fingers in his ears and shouting "na na na." Warinner and Harbaugh have their influence and you can see it in this package. Michigan's 2TE packages gave them an absolute ton of stuff they could do with arc games last year—more even than you may remember, because there were a number of plays that were there tactically but weren't executed because of a lack of familiarity. It looks like Michigan is building on last year's arc game.
Very little of this actually happened in the first half of the season. The quarterback refused to keep the ball on zone reads. Tight ends were extant but their involvement was muted compared to the 2018 offense, in which Sean McKeon may have been Michigan's most critical run blocker. Michigan threatened some edges in the opener by adding a pitchman to their arc package, but then that went away with nary an actual pitch.
[After THE JUMP: Gattis as Jalen Mayfield]
In practice they have been able to run the football really well.
Michigan has put another center in the NFL, and braces for impact
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