2014-15 illinois #3

Big Ten tourney time is always weird for content what with games on at noon.

This was off an Irvin assist [Patrick Barron]

The light is on. Midseason complaining that Zak Irvin hadn't added very much to his game between his freshman and sophomore years was justified. Irvin was a bit more willing to get to the basket but he was a black hole that generated shots only for himself and the predictability of his game—Beilein once mentioned that he really needed to shot fake like, ever—was beginning to catch up to him now that the league had a scouting report on him.

Then Irvin had the light go on. Alex tweeted this out yesterday and it amply demonstrates Irvin's expanding game:

He's developed pick and roll options other than meh pullup jumpers. (He's good at them; they're still way less efficient than, say, asking Aubrey Dawkins to do his best GRIII impression on an alley-oop.) He's generating shots for his teammates, which will eventually make the shots he does take better.

This is necessary if Michigan's going to return to the outrageous offensive efficiency that drove their Final Four/Big Ten Champions outfits. I've grumbled about Michigan's unusually low assist numbers for big chunks of the year. Led by Irvin, Michigan acquired 15 against the Illini.

I mean.

Via Ace

The king of yesterday's assists. I cocked an eyebrow with about 11 minutes left when Michigan executed a beautiful team sequence that got Doyle a bunny. All five Michigan players touched it after Spike dumped it to Irvin in the corner:

• Irvin drove baseline, drawing help D and kicking to
• MAAR, who passed it to
• Chatman standing in the short corner, who drew recovering attention. At this point
• Spike, who had zero players looking at him or checking him because of the ball movement, cut to the elbow, again drawing a double team from an unprepared on-ball defender and Egwu; Spike drove, whereupon
• Doyle was the recipient of an easy bucket at the rim.

It was a brief flashback to the last couple years, when Michigan would regularly delight with gorgeous basketball. It's coming back you guys.

Next year man. Caris offered some quotes about his upcoming NBA decision that sounded genuinely torn. Judge for yourself:

"It will probably be right up to the last day," LeVert said Thursday, following U-M's 73-55 win over Illinois in the Big Ten tournament.

As for his thoughts on returning to school or entering the draft, LeVert remains undecided.

"Coming back next year would be very fun for me and very beneficial for me and the team as well," LeVert said. "Going to the NBA would also be fun. That's a lifetime dream. It's definitely going to be a tough decision."

That sounds different than the Robinson/Stauskas decisions. As of a couple weeks ago, Sam Webb thought that LeVert was leaning towards returning. So that would be nice.

With or without him, though, Michigan should be very deep and reasonably experienced. An approximate depth chart:

PG: Walton, Albrecht
SG: LeVert, MAAR
SF: Dawkins, Robinson
PF: Irvin, Chatman, Wagner(?)
C: Doyle, Donnal, Wilson

Swap the 2-4 spots to your desire. It's hard to find enough minutes for everyone if LeVert comes back: if Walton, Irvin, and LeVert all get 30 minutes and Spike gets 20—estimates that seem conservative—then MAAR, Dawkins, Robinson, and Chatman are all fighting over 50 minutes a game. Even the scenario with LeVert gone those guys can comfortably split 80.

If Michigan stays healthy, I predict autobench complaining plummets.

MAAR will go at you. Nanna Egwu is not exactly a complete basketball player—I'll miss him getting outrebounded by his entire team—but he is very long and contests shots well. Abdur-Rahkman doesn't care about that. He will drive on anyone and get a reasonable shot up; if it doesn't go in he's set the team up for a Kobe assist. Another year of development and he's definitely a guy who can fill in the point guard minutes Spike will evacuate.

FWIW. Michigan did offer Wagner, as you would expect for a guy who flew in from Germany. Rivals's Eric Bossi gives a ballpark estimate of where he'd be if he was ranked:

His shot looks good and he's very good in pick and pop situations between 12 and 17 feet, he has good skill level, though he's perhaps a bit mechanical in his movements at this time, and he's a good high post passer who competes on both ends but needs strength.

"He's on the NBA radar but not as an early entry guy just yet," Bossi said. "He's more on radar as somebody to monitor when he makes it to a college program."

If he were a part of the 2015 class (and he would come in this fall), he'd be a top 20 to 40 type prospect as an American prep.

Not bad.

The Bielfeldt shot is more representative of today's game. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

The first two games between Michigan and Illinois this season featured a pair of improbable comeback victories, one by each team.

It looked to be heading in that direction again in the first half of today's Big Ten Tournament matchup; Michigan had an early 12-0 run erased by a subsequent 13-0 charge by the Illini. Even after the Wolverines closed the half with a 23-4 run, carrying a 17-point lead into the break, you'd be excused if you were waiting for the other shoe to drop—Michigan had, after all, blown an 18-point second-half lead against Illinois exactly four weeks ago.

Instead, Michigan pushed the lead higher, and the Illini might as well have absconded for the locker room when Spike Albrecht made his bid for an And1 Mixtape appearance:

Aside from an all-too-familiar scoring drought in the first half, Michigan couldn't have played much better. The team moved the ball beautifully, tallying assists on nine of their 15 first-half buckets. Albrecht had five on the game, playing as Spike does—moving the ball around and hitting a couple deep bombs.

More eye-opening was the all-around effort from Zak Irvin, who posted a 14-6-6 line, working within—and driving—the offense better than ever. Irvin's anticipation on a first-half lob to Aubrey Dawkins, cutting in from the corner, was only the most highlight-worthy sign of his progress. Today made it clear that he's broken through to another level, especially in creating offense off the high screen.

Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman both put their season-long progress on display, as well. Dawkins continued his hot shooting, hitting 9/12 from the field on his way to a team-high 18 points. Rahk hit his lone three-point attempt and had several successful forays to the hoop to net his 15 points, and he also posted a career-high eight rebounds. Max Bielfeldt, starting for the second straight game, became the fourth Wolverine to hit double-figures with ten points.

Whether in zone or man, Michigan proved more than up to the task of shutting down the Illini's three main scoring threats. Malcolm Hill, Rayvonte Rice, and Kendrick Nunn combined to shoot 11/37 from the field; those three accounted for well over half of the team's shot attempts. Secondary scoring was limited to backup forward Leron Black's ten points, but Black also turned the ball over four times—he compounded an obvious first-half charge with a subsequent technical, which Albrecht turned into a five-point trip that extended Michigan's lead to 13.

With the win, Michigan's NIT hopes are now very much alive, though they won't feel secure in locking down a bid unless they upend top-seeded Wisconsin tomorrow at noon. Michigan pushed the Badgers to overtime in their lone regular-season matchup. Given how the Wolverines looked today, they look ready to give the Big Ten's best another fight tomorrow.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Nnanna Egwu contests jumper, stares straight into your soul. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

In Michigan's case, "win or go home" takes on a greater significance tomorrow. Not only do the Wolverines need to beat Illinois to stay alive in the Big Ten Tournament—and keep any NCAA pipe dream* going—but they'll most likely need two wins this weekend just to qualify for the NIT.

It's been a rough week for Michigan's postseason hopes. The NIT guarantees spots for teams that win their conference regular-season title but lose in their conference tournament; after Robert Morris and North Dakota State knocked off St. Francis (NY) and South Dakota State, respectively, last night, seven such automatic bids have been claimed. That's burst several bubbles in the process, potentially including Michigan's: The Bracket Matrix and DRatings both left Michigan out of the NIT field in their latest updates. NYC Buckets has M as a seven-seed clinging to one of the last at-large bids.

Meanwhile, Illinois is on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble; they've got plenty to play for this weekend.

*And a pipe dream it is: KenPom's log5 analysis gives Michigan an 0.2% chance at winning the BTT, and just a 2.9% chance of making it past Illinois and Wisconsin.

THE US

Ricky Doyle, who missed the Rutgers game due to illness, will be a "full go" tomorrow, according to John Beilein. Doyle could've given it a go last weekend, but with Michigan cruising to victory that wasn't necessary.

Derrick Walton is doubtful to play.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan took on Illinois at Crisler in the Big Ten opener, a game that feels like it took place decades ago. A torrent of threes from Aubrey Dawkins and a surprise changeup to the 2-3 zone led to a comeback, overtime victory on the day Jim Harbaugh was introduced as head coach.

The return trip to Champaign didn't go quite as well. Michigan surprisingly controlled much of the game... and then allowed a 21-2 run to close the game, including a 14-2 margin in the overtime period. Aubrey Dawkins had a really sick dunk, at least.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	SIBMIHHAT
G	3	Ahmad Starks	Sr.	5'9, 170	60	22	Not really
Middling assist:turnover, decent shooter, not a threat inside the arc.
G	25	Kendrick Nunn	So.	6'3, 190	86	22	No
Good outside shooter, less efficient inside arc, solid defender.
G	24	Rayvonte Rice	Sr.	6'4, 230	40	25	No
Stocky, high-usage slasher now hits threes. Solid defensive rebounder.
G	21	Malcolm Hill	So.	6'6, 230	85	24	No
Cooled off after nearing 50/40/90 status; still a dangerous all-around scorer.
C	32	Nnanna Egwu	Sr.	6'11, 250	78	14	Yes
Good shot-blocker, offensive rebounder. Had poor year offensively.
G	1	Jaylon Tate	So.	6'3, 170	56	14	Very
High assist and turnover rates. Almost never shoots. Gets to line a ton.
F	12	Leron Black	Fr.	6'7, 220	35	19	Very
Very good rebounder. Not a great finisher. Foul-prone.
C	22	Maverick Morgan	So.	6'10, 250	22	18	Very
Poor finisher, way better on off. glass than defense. Not a big shot-blocker.

THE RESUME

Illinois is looking to play their way into the NCAA Tournament after finishing an even 9-9 in conference play. Faced with a pretty tough slate, they dropped four of their last six after their second meeting with Michigan.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]