Big Ten Tourney Preview: Illinois
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#9 Michigan (15-15, 8-10 B1G) vs. #8 Illinois (19-12, 9-9) |
---|---|
WHERE |
United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
WHEN | Noon ET, Thursday |
LINE | Illinois -3 (KenPom) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler Analyst: Jim Jackson |
Right: Nnanna Egwu contests jumper, stares straight into your soul. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE STAKES
In Michigan's case, "win or go home" takes on a greater significance tomorrow. Not only do the Wolverines need to beat Illinois to stay alive in the Big Ten Tournament—and keep any NCAA pipe dream* going—but they'll most likely need two wins this weekend just to qualify for the NIT.
It's been a rough week for Michigan's postseason hopes. The NIT guarantees spots for teams that win their conference regular-season title but lose in their conference tournament; after Robert Morris and North Dakota State knocked off St. Francis (NY) and South Dakota State, respectively, last night, seven such automatic bids have been claimed. That's burst several bubbles in the process, potentially including Michigan's: The Bracket Matrix and DRatings both left Michigan out of the NIT field in their latest updates. NYC Buckets has M as a seven-seed clinging to one of the last at-large bids.
Meanwhile, Illinois is on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble; they've got plenty to play for this weekend.
*And a pipe dream it is: KenPom's log5 analysis gives Michigan an 0.2% chance at winning the BTT, and just a 2.9% chance of making it past Illinois and Wisconsin.
THE US
Ricky Doyle, who missed the Rutgers game due to illness, will be a "full go" tomorrow, according to John Beilein. Doyle could've given it a go last weekend, but with Michigan cruising to victory that wasn't necessary.
Derrick Walton is doubtful to play.
THE LAST TIME
Michigan took on Illinois at Crisler in the Big Ten opener, a game that feels like it took place decades ago. A torrent of threes from Aubrey Dawkins and a surprise changeup to the 2-3 zone led to a comeback, overtime victory on the day Jim Harbaugh was introduced as head coach.
The return trip to Champaign didn't go quite as well. Michigan surprisingly controlled much of the game... and then allowed a 21-2 run to close the game, including a 14-2 margin in the overtime period. Aubrey Dawkins had a really sick dunk, at least.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 3 | Ahmad Starks | Sr. | 5'9, 170 | 60 | 22 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Middling assist:turnover, decent shooter, not a threat inside the arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 25 | Kendrick Nunn | So. | 6'3, 190 | 86 | 22 | No | ||||||||||||
Good outside shooter, less efficient inside arc, solid defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 24 | Rayvonte Rice | Sr. | 6'4, 230 | 40 | 25 | No | ||||||||||||
Stocky, high-usage slasher now hits threes. Solid defensive rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 21 | Malcolm Hill | So. | 6'6, 230 | 85 | 24 | No | ||||||||||||
Cooled off after nearing 50/40/90 status; still a dangerous all-around scorer. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 32 | Nnanna Egwu | Sr. | 6'11, 250 | 78 | 14 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Good shot-blocker, offensive rebounder. Had poor year offensively. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Jaylon Tate | So. | 6'3, 170 | 56 | 14 | Very | ||||||||||||
High assist and turnover rates. Almost never shoots. Gets to line a ton. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 12 | Leron Black | Fr. | 6'7, 220 | 35 | 19 | Very | ||||||||||||
Very good rebounder. Not a great finisher. Foul-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 22 | Maverick Morgan | So. | 6'10, 250 | 22 | 18 | Very | ||||||||||||
Poor finisher, way better on off. glass than defense. Not a big shot-blocker. |
THE RESUME
Illinois is looking to play their way into the NCAA Tournament after finishing an even 9-9 in conference play. Faced with a pretty tough slate, they dropped four of their last six after their second meeting with Michigan.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Illinois has been previewed twice this season already, so I won't go into too much depth here. Malcolm Hill and Rayvonte Rice are the dangermen. Rice did most of his damage off the dribble last season, but this year he's become a major threat shooting the three above the break; he's also a skilled passer who can run the offense. Rice didn't do much against Michigan last time around in his first game back from a wrist injury (and a brief suspension), but he's been on fire since.
Hill had a breakout year, earning all-conference honorable mention; there are many, myself included, who would've rather seen him get third-team honors than unabashed chucker Terran Pettaway. Hill can score from just about anywhere, especially if it's on the left side of the court (via Shot Analytics):
Kendrick Nunn and Ahmad Starks give Illinois two more outside shooting threats in the starting lineup, though neither is particularly efficient inside the arc. Nnanna Egwu provides rebounding and defense; while ostensibly a post-up threat, he's really struggled on offense this year, hitting just 41% of his twos in Big Ten play.
The Illini depth has taken a hit since the injury, suspension, and eventual departure of guard Aaron Cosby, who started 13 games before losing his job to Starks. That leaves Jaylon Tate as the primary backup in the backcourt; he's a low-usage guy who's good at getting to the line and bad at taking care of the ball. Leron Black is an excellent rebounder off the bench, while Maverick Morgan is a below-average backup big.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only numbers:
Illinois posted identical 100.9 efficiency rates on both offense and defense in conference play; that was good for the Big Ten's fourth-worst offense and fifth-best defense.
The offense suffered because the Illini shot a league-worst 41.4% on two-pointers, which their average three-point shooting and league-best free throw percentage couldn't offset. Not helping matters: they don't generate may second-chance opportunites or get to the line that often. With several solid ballhandlers, it shouldn't be surprising that Illinois is one of the best teams in the conference at taking care of the ball.
The defense also struggled inside the arc in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to hit just under 50% of their twos. Illinois protects the glass and forces their fair share of turnovers—Rice and Egwu both posted top-ten steal rates in the B1G.
THE KEYS
Run them off the line. Illinois has a bunch of guys who are above average outside shooters and below average inside the arc: Rice, Hill, and Nunn all shot in the low 40s from two in conference play, while Starks was all the way down at 36%. Michigan needs to keep the intensity up when guarding the three-point line; if they can force Illinois into a bunch of two-point jumpers, that'll be a great sign.
Keep working the high screen. Dylan posted a worthwhile article this week on Michigan's ball screen offense, which has improved in both volume and quality in the absence of Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton. Michigan now has it in three flavors: Zak Irvin (off-dribble jumpers), Spike Albrecht (passes and pull-up threes), and MAAR (drives to the hoop); all have been relatively effective. Against an Illinois team that struggles to defend inside the arc, it's worth drawing Egwu away from the hoop and trying to attack.
Win The Game. Find a way, because if they don't, the season is almost certainly over.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Illinois by 3.
Not only are the Illini the better team with a fully healthy Rayvonte Rice, they've got a whole lot more to play for tomorrow.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. MnB's Drew Hallett takes a closer look at M's chances in the BTT.
Michigan was shut out of All-Big Ten honors; in fact, they were the only team without an honorable mention. In a league that includes Rutgers, I'd take issue with that if I cared more about awards.
MLive's Brendan F. Quinn with a couple solid reads this week: a sitdown with Kam Chatman and a look at win/loss statistical splits:
In wins, Irvin made 43.8 percent of his field-goal attempts and 40.4 percent of his 3-pointers. Both shooting percentage were actually higher than LeVert's in the 11 wins he played in.
In losses, Irvin shot 36.1 percent from the field and 29.7 percent on 3s.
Make shots, Zak.
In recruiting news, Scout's Evan Daniels reports Michigan offered 2015 German forward Moritz Wagner, who visited last weekend. The Wolverine has more details ($):
"He's up in the air on further visits at this point," [Rivals analyst Eric] Bossi said. "He's not likely to decide by early to mid-April (late signing period). There is a push from some around him to sign a contract and play pro ball in Germany, but he wants college as way to try and get to the NBA."
Michigan is the heavy favorite if Wagner, as expected, chooses college ball over signing a contract with Alba Berlin, his German team. Bossi said Wagner would be a "top 20 to 40 type prospect" if he were ranked alongside American preps in the 2015 class.
do not need two wins to make the NIT. That is doom-mongering. If they beat Illinois they will be in the NIT.
Also, I was all ready to rage regarding the lack of All Big Ten thing, but then I looked at it, and I really don't know where I would complain. Spike and Zak should have been Honorable Mention, I guess.
Beat Illinois and lose to Wisconsin and the record is 16-16. Hasn't the NIT never had a .500 team? The rule allows it, but they've never done it.
I think the issue is that the NIT won't consider their win over DII Hillsdale, which means 2 wins are needed to be .500. I could be wrong, but that was my understanding of how it worked. Also, even a .500 team isn't a likely candidate for the NIT.
Michigan shot themselves in the face with that loss to NW. Win there and they are probably in with a win vs. Illinois.
That's gonna really sting. No one to blame but JB for that. I love him and all, but to not even make the NIT is pretty embarrassing.
I guess we can drop that Kentucky '13 comparison. At least they were an NCAA bubble team and made the NIT.
I'll be hoping for a miracle this weekend...
Come on...It was Beilein's fault that Lavert and Walton were out for the season with injuries, that Albrecht is likely facing post-season surgery on his hip and that Doyle was sick for several weeks and was only good for a couple of minutes a game for weeks?
I think Beilein did a masterful job of coaching....how many OT games were played with seven or eight scholarship players? How many games should we have been blown out of only to lose in OT?
But those are really just excuses for some bad coaching this year. The perplexing coaching decisions (i.e. autobench, inbound passing schemed, etc.) have been discussed in length here, so I won't rehash it. These things more or less kept us out of the NIT.
Amaker had no problem making the NIT every year, but one (the sanction year would have made the NIT) with average recruits and middling coaching. JB hasn't made the NIT twice.
As mentioned, I like JB. I'm not advocating that he gets fired. I hope he stays as long as we wants. And I hope he learns from this year. Next year will be interesting to say the least.
And you are maximizing some (relatively) minor coaching issues with very real depth issues that occurred due to factors somewhat outside of his control. Beilein has always had weird foul rules and his inbound plays have always been suspect, but at the same time those seemed to work when he wasn't trotting out walk-ons and true freshmen at multiple positions. The fact this team could finish at .500 with the number of issues they've had is a testament to his coaching. It certainly hasn't been his best year, but few coaches in the country could do better (and a hell of a lot could do worse) with the situation Beilein had this year.
March 12th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
There likely has never been a year like this losing so many players to early entry, transfer and injury (to star players), necessitating big minutes from true freshmen and walk ons. Those aren't excuses it's just reality. It's a bad beat. Multiple bad beats. Lesser coaches wouldn't have grinded out a .500 record with the talent and depth on hand.
that our bad season after lots of turnover is slightly worse than Kentucky's bad season.
If you love John Beilein, and turn on him for this year, I'd hate to see what you would do to someone you don't love.
Good grief. Do you believe he should be fired, since you've said that the bad record is his fault? Has he just totally forgotten about basketball, or what?
Rob
Read my post again. I simply critqued JB's coaching this year, that's all. I made no inference to wanting him fired. I have not turned on him. I hope he stays.
Take five, man.
I thought Beilein coached masterfully this year. His team got consistently better, game plans were frequently outmatching other coaches in spite of talent gaps. He had some bad games at the end, but he had some gems of coaching this year.
March 11th, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^
watch the games? There is no way, IMO, that the team out there now has any chance to lose to some of the crappy competition they struggled with in the pre-big 10 season..And that's not just beating Rutgers/Illinois talking, that's being consistently competitive with good teams over that 10 games stretch you are referring to, and tying them in regulation a few times.
Rob
5 taken.. I hear you -
I will restate without reading stuff in - I'm super-hard-pressed to find anything to criticize about John Beilein's coaching this year. Honestly, I'm not saying we SHOULD NOT criticize, it's just damn hard to do it, IMO.
I have questions (and by "questions, I don't mean "I think he sucks", I mean the actual word "questions") about why we are not having more recruiting success at this point. Not a veiled criticism, because I believe there are excellent reasons (other programs pay top players, we don't, Michigan's profile in bigtime basketball is not established? Bad-ish luck for an off-season), I just don't really get it...
But about development, motivation, in-game coaching, hiring staff, and being awesome? I have no questions, no concerns, and seriously, I think he's a top 3 coach in the NCAA overall. Given how much I admire him personally, I would never trade him for even the other guys I think are around the top 3...
Hence my perhaps over-vehement response. :)
Rob
March 12th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
I will say this. I think that JB has the "feel" of a top 3 coach, but doesn't have the "look". Meaning he needs to like win a championship to cement himself as a top 3 coach. I think he'll do it soon.
Damn Beilein and his intentional injuring of his best players and pending season-long banning of Mitch McGary due to a draconian NCAA rule.
Beilein hasn't been great with a couple elements of his coaching this year, but This team would have been a bubble program had they had Walton and Caris for most of the conference season.
You sound like a fair-weather fan who looks only at the record in determining whether or not a coach did a good job during the season.
They were 6-3 in the B1G at one point, only to go 2-7 down the stretch. How many of those OT games do we win with LeVert OR Walton healthy? How many games do we win with both healthy? I'd say 12-6 is the floor which should get any B1G team into the tournament, NJIT and EMU results be damned.
And that EMU loss doesn't really look that bad - they finished 21-12, an RPI around 87. NJIT around 152 isn't great, but for bubble teams you do see those types of losses pop up. But I agree that 12-6 in this conference should get you in, even though it has been a down year. So yeah, people complaining that injuries shouldn't matter are just being intellectually lazy.
Do you know what that term means? Saying that there is no one to blame for the poor showing but Beilein this year is not constructive criticism. You made an inflamatory statement about a beloved coach and people got upset with you. Don't try to play it off like you are some victim of unfair attacks by claiming constructive criticism.
Maybe next time offer up a few complaints or things to improve on in your initial comments instead up just that there is "no one to blame but JB". He made some bad coaching decisions this year, but to say he bears all the blame when his two best players were injured for large parts of the year is just as bad as all the people you complain about who refuse to criticize him at all.
March 11th, 2015 at 10:07 PM ^
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At minimum they're your best and third best players in a game where you only get to play five at a time.
And we have people around here whining, while calling it constructive criticism, about the year JB is having.
I would say, "Unbelievable!!!!!" Except that, it's not.
Sons and daughters of the morons who were hot to fire Saint Bo the year he went 6 and 6.
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Nailed it, my ass. That was a horrible analogy.
JB just showed what this team can do next year. They just throttled ILL in every facet of the game.
Big Ten Chanmpions next year, you heard it here first.
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