Hoops Preview: Louisville 2019
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #10 Michigan (7-0) vs #1 Louisville (7-0) |
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WHERE | The World's Worst-Named Arena Louisville, KY |
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WHEN | 7:30 pm Eastern | |
THE LINE | Louisville -8 (KenPom) Louisville –5.9 (Torvik) |
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TELEVISION | ESPN PBP: Dave O'Brien Color: Dick Vitale |
LFG!
THE US
Seth's graphic:
No rest for the trident-bearers: Michigan returns from two top-ten opponents in the Bahamas and gets the new #1 team in the country, in both the polls and Kenpom, on the road. Louisville did play Friday; they did not also play Wednesday and Thursday. Nor did they leave the country.
The opponent, the venue, and the rest circumstances would normally add up to a Not In The Face game, but Michigan's increasingly comfortable with their new systems and has found out they've got a lot more quality depth than they thought they did entering the season. Could be a thing.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
click for big
Louisville is a bit of an odd duck to be #1 in early December. The Cardinals are coming off a decent 2018-19 in which they went 20-14, 10-8 in the ACC, made the tourney, and got bounced by Minnesota in a 7-10 game. They returned everyone except a couple of eminently replaceable role players, but it seems like a leap to go from Rick Pitino ending your season to #1 when the only power-conference team you've played is Miami (That Miami). Louisville didn't add any game-changing new players, either. Their most important new contributors are a couple of decent bench players.
But the funny thing is that the advanced stats are all about Louisville too. Louisville just ascended to the top spot on Kenpom; they're second on Torvik. They have not been in a semblance of a competitive game this year unless Akron—a fringe top 100 team, not a pushover—being down 10 with 2 minutes left counts. They have annihilated their cupcakes so emphatically that everyone guesses they're the best team in the country. That guess gets its first real test tonight.
PERSONNEL
Jordan Nwora is the star. He's a 6'7" wing with reasonable three-level scoring ability and a quick trigger finger. He's not as ball-dominant as you might expect a 32% usage guy to be, instead preferring to come off screens in situations where he can get downhill and firing any half-decent look at a jumper he gets. Last year his efficiency was mediocre thanks largely to middling production at the rim (62%) and a fairly high TO rate for a guy who's not making plays for his teammates. He did hit 37% from three on high volume, and while he's not firing up a lot of unassisted ones Nwora gets off tons of contested shots resulting from basic perimeter passes on which his defender falls asleep for a fraction of a second. He is a tough shot maker who gets forced into taking tough shots.
Nwora went through the draft process so we've got a lot of detailed scouting reports on him:
The 6’7.5, 220-pound forward was one of the best shooting wings in the class, averaging 1.28 points per possession on 138 shots. He ranked similarly (1.24 points per possession) when contested on his jumpers, a very good sign as he will be facing more length on a consistent basis at the next level. His wingspan measured 6’10.5’ at the combine, which would only help his draft stock, one would think.
Nwora struggled relative to other wings in his class in transition and isolation plays, ranking well in the back half of the expected draft class in both areas. It’s important to keep in mind that he’s still really young at 20 years old, at this stage shooting off of the catch is by far his best attribute.
A knock on Nwora would be that he is, again, not the most athletic of players. He’s sort of slow and methodical in his inside attacks as a collegiate player, and genuinely was more efficient the further away he was from the basket.
Nwora's assist rate was stuck in the single digits last year and remains there this year so it seems obvious that Livers or Wagner should be up in his shirt at all times. This might be a good matchup for Wagner, actually: Nwora would be bothered by his crazy Gumby arms without exposing Wagner to too much driving. With passes included Nwora was a 30th percentile isolation player and an 18th percentile PNR ballhandler last year.
High level teams defended Nwora very well, which helps explain why the NBA didn't seem too interested. Against top 100 foes last year (24 games) Nwora shot 47/34 en route to a 97 ORTG; against top 50 foes (17 games) that was 43/34 and had a 92 ORTG.
The two other guys to get the lion's share of Louisville minutes are their shooting guard and small forward. SG Ryan McMahon is an extreme Just A Shooter who had 5 times as many threes as twos last year. He hit 35% from deep while hitting 95% of a surprisingly hefty number of FTs—I can only assume these were mostly late-game intentional fouls since the guy took a total of 31 twos. This year he's close to exactly the same guy in more minutes per game. He is off to a super-hot start, hitting 54% of his threes against the junior varsity portion of the schedule.
McMahon did have a decent assist rate the last two years; recipe there is to force him off the line and offer zero help unless it's truly dire. He's listed at 6-foot-even, which seems optimistic.
Burlywing Dwayne Sutton is also off to a white-hot start. He currently leads the nation in eFG thanks to 83/53 shooting. Last year he was far more mortal, shooting 52/35 on shots about evenly split between twos and threes. He does a lot of his work on the offensive boards, particularly early this year. So far this year a third of his twos are putbacks; without those his already rock-bottom usage (13%) would be in Vogrich territory. Aside from the putbacks he's got five unassisted buckets this season.
This is a weird step back for a guy who had decent usage a season ago. It also neatly explains his surge in efficiency since he's dunking off assist or dunking off putbacks or going 8/15 from three in the early going. Michigan's main priority will bet to keep him off the offensive boards.
Enoch can go toe to toe with Teske physically
Center will be a platoon of two high-level, veteran defenders. Senior Steven Enoch is the second banana when he's on the court. He's a strapping back-to-the-basket post who gets pushed out to hook range a lot. Despite having close to zero spot-ups on the season, almost half of Enoch's shots were midrange twos last year. He hit them at a 45% clip; he shot 36% on just over one three-pointer per game. While Enoch isn't exactly a stretch 5, Louisville goes five out a ton to clear driving lanes for Nwora.
Enoch's platoon-mate, junior Malik Williams, is working his way back from a broken foot. He got ~18 minutes in Louisville's last two games and will probably split minutes about down the middle with Enoch unless foul trouble intervenes. That doesn't change Michigan's equation much. Williams is a rebounder and shot blocker who is more comfortable on the block than facing up but does have three point range. Barely over half his shots last year were twos. He took 88 threes at a 32% clip. Inside the line he was a hair under 50%.
Like Enoch, Williams is a defensive stalwart unlikely to make much headway against Teske in the post who Louisville will float to the perimeter in the hopes that Teske goes with him. When Teske doesn't these guys are going to shoot, and it'll go in or it won't. FWIW, last year these guys were 11th and 16th percentile on spot-ups, respectively. The only thing that gives pause is decent three-point shooting.
Point guard Darius Perry is one of the few Cardinals not out to a blazing start; he's coming off a year in which he got about 16 MPG and had a turnover rate six points higher than his assist rate while shooting decently. That TO rate is still stuck at 24 but his assist rate has skyrocketed as he moves into a starting role and the players around him knock down everything they put up.
Aside from Williams, UL's bench is still in flux. They brought in five star wing Samuell Williamson, who's shooting 59/13 in the very early stages of his career; he's got a hefty OREB rate so Michigan will likely play him like he's Sutton and evolve from there if that's necessary. The other main reserve is someone Phil Martelli is well-acquainted with, St Joe's grad transfer Lamarr Kimble. Kimble was a high usage guy with dubious efficiency at St Joe's, shooting 49/29. At UL he's taken a back seat, with most of his usage either assists or turnovers—he's getting up about three shots a game.
Freshman David Johnson's gotten just under ten minutes in UL's last two games and Michigan will likely see him some. Data on him is close to nonexistent; he looked like a chucker against Akron, albeit an effective one. Fun with small sample sizes: Johnson's averaging 14 fouls per 40.
THE RELEVANT NUMBERS
UL's factors:
This is a little hard to credit since UL's current strength of schedule is 308th (Michigan is 85th, FWIW), but there's only one substandard factor, a very low TO rate on defense, and outstanding eFG results on both ends. UL is not overly dependent on threes yet but last year with very similar personnel they were pretty heavy on shots from behind the arc; they were reasonably good at preventing launches a year ago.
UL's shooting splits, keeping in mind that when you shoot a lot of midrange jumpers you get ranked low, not high, by Torvik:
- Rim: 31% percent of their shots (286th), hitting at 72% (15th).
- Midrange: a third of their shots (285th), hitting at 46% (11th).
- 3: 37% of their shots (195th), hitting at 40% (19th).
Bad shot distribution and white-hot shooting. I'd pull up the inverse but the teams UL have played are so bad that I don't think it's indicative of anything. Meanwhile here's Michigan's defensive shooting chart:
red = bad shooting, orange baddish, green goodish, blue good
Michigan's been exceptionally good at shutting down corner threes, exceptionally good at defending the rim, and has pushed a lot of usage into the midrange.
THE KEYS
Sag away. UL has a couple of plausibly stretch-ish bigs. They're unlikely to be stretch enough to change the drop coverage equation. In exchange for open shots from the bigs Michigan can vastly overplay the perimeter knowing they've got backup at the rim. Those shots are not likely to be comfortable for the bigs even if they've hit some threes. On spot ups last year Enoch and Williams combined for 34 points on 53 shots. The number of threes the bigs get off indicates that they're probably not guarded on them and they shouldn't expect to hit more than 32-35% even if left completely alone.
If Michigan can shut off threes from the other guys and get UL into taking jumpers off the dribble they'll be in a good spot. UL averaged 0.72 PPP on those last year with largely the same cast.
Crowd Nwora. A corollary to the first point. Nwora's best attribute is a lightning quick trigger from three. It is uncanny how many shots Nwora hits off of no action whatsoever; someone will dump it to him on the perimeter and the ball goes up against a contest. Michigan has to make those a clearly bad idea. If they exchange those for anything else Nwora does, fine. He's not much of an assist guy.
High level opponents did this just fine last year and Isaiah Livers is a quality perimeter defender who should be able to replicate that success.
Take care of the ball. This is an unusual spot to get healthy with your turnovers, but this isn't your weird uncle's Louisville teams. The Cardinals are in the 300s forcing TOs despite a steady diet of teams that dribble it off their own foot. Michigan's seen open-court turnovers spike 50% in the early days. If that continues Louisville is going to have a number of opportunities to get good open looks they're unlikely to generate in their half-court offense.
Franz activation. You saw the good and the bad in the Bahamas. At some point he's going to activate and look like an NBA player. Probably not this game; he can still get a significant amount better game to game as a true freshman coming off an injury with a ton of potential.
Teske fouls. UL has two big bangers who will be net minuses trying to post Teske but might be able to stuff Castleton in a box. Michigan should be pretty resilient to foul trouble everywhere else; losing Teske for a significant chunk of the game would be a problem.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Louisville by 8.
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
You sound rather confident about this game. It's a nice change of pace, Brian.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Predicting an 8 point loss is confident?
were you being sarcastic?
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
Not being sarcastic. He predicts the same thing as Kenpom for every single one of these posts regardless of how he feels personally. From the tone of his post, he sounds like he thinks it will be closer than that.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
He won't say it, but he knows December KenPom is not best KenPom.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
Looking at you too #2 MSU... (¬_¬)
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
My reaction to KenPom predicting a Louisville win by 8 points:
Go Blue. WIN THE GAME!
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Delete
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^
I really do not think it bothers anyone on here if you like men.
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
I really can’t think of a more appropriate metaphor for sports in the 21st century than a team moving out an arena named Freedom Hall into one named KFC Yum! Center.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
I’d argue it transcends sports and is a microcosm of our society in general.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:06 PM ^
How about the fact that prostitutes are getting paid on Louisville's campus, but the players are not?
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^
Aren’t the players getting paid in prostitute currency?
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Or..... we are the next #1 ranked team in the country.
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
FWIW Ohio State beat Louisville in one of those "secret" scrimmages.
Historically this is the kind of game where Michigan teams come out tired, flat, and dig too deep of a hole to get out of. A win tonight would be both a nice surprise and a reason to start checking for flights to Atlanta.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
flights to Atlanta
Make sure you stop by Duluth for some good Korean food.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
I don't think this is one of those games. This team has bought in and become better and better. There is great senior leadership. I think we're giving Louisville a run for their money
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
I live south of Atlanta..BRING EM ON!!! was here for the Final Four games in 2013 the place was PACKED with Wolverines...Love to see that AGAIN!!!
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
I took my oldest son to the Final Four. Hopefully I’ll have reason to take my youngest this year!
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^
Cursed with Vitale again? Phukity.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
This calls for liberal use of the mute button.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
Great, now I have to drill out my ear drums.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
He'll be a lot more complimentary of us this time. As long as we're not playing a Tobacco Road school, he's pretty fair to us.
(Of course you still have to deal with all the AWESOME BABY PTPer SLAM JAM BAM stuff.)
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^
he might be the most annoying motherfucker ever to be given a microphone.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^
Tied with Berman.
It will be mute and blues for me tonight and that's okay.
December 3rd, 2019 at 6:54 PM ^
Dude turned 80 this past June. It's time to hang them up. He and Brent Musberger can go do some two-bit show in Sirius and leave the rest of us the hell alone.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:03 PM ^
I'm pumped. I live in Louisville and have never been to one of their games. I've got my tickets and I'm headed downtown after work. It's nice to see a team I care about here for once. For better or worse I have a good feeling about this one. Go Blue!
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
All the pressure's on Louisville; we're a team unranked a week ago going on the road to face #1.
Hell, I thought beating Iowa State was a nice resume builder that could prove important marching into March. Then we got NC and the Zags. Louisville too? Why not?!
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
Their coach was already making excuses in the presser yesterday. "If we lose, it'll be because Michigan's a good team, not that we are ranked #1" They feel the pressure of being #1 and the pressure of the three #1s that already lost this year.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
That seems the opposite of an excuse. I thought he handled the "#1" questions well. I think he scouted UM and knows they're playing a very good team tonight. No excuses, if they lose, he basically said, they'd be beaten by a damn good team.
EDIT: Listening to JH made me more worried about UL. Then listening to Mack got me back to level. They both were complementary of the other squad in a real way. Two very good teams. UM on the road in a tough place to play. No shame in a loss, but UM might pull it off.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
Same. I was in class and saw that my tickets I purchased months ago had been SOLD on StubHub (I listed them in August at a premium price when I was unsure if I could attend) and I panicked. Then I bought others in the same row one section over. Profit? $50.
Can't go wrong.
GO BLUE!
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
The write-up differs from the prediction in a startling way! Based on the write-up about what UL is and does, and having seen for myself what Michigan did to UNC and Gonzaga, I kinda doubt the prediction.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
The ancient Greeks had a saying: Διαφωνείτε με τον δικό σας κίνδυνο, which loosely translates to: Disagree with KenPom at your own peril.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
I thought that was an ancient Chinese saying.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:24 PM ^
No you’re thinking of “never go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line”
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^
It's a good thought with Franz on Nwora but I wouldn't want him to have to fight through all those screens. Positioning is key for that. Jumping to the ball, being up the line, stepping around screens before they come, it's something Livers almost certainly has to do.
And then just hope Franz can keep Sutton off the boards. If he can't Johns could see significant action at the four.
I wonder if the Louisville fans will get some flashbacks of the elder Wagner schooling them in 2017. I love how many fan bases this year are going to be like, "they have another one of those guys?"
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
Similar note: I was reading a game(s) thread over at RCMB last week (I know, I know...) and saw this comment..... “they have another @&$&@) Wagner?!”
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:59 PM ^
We specialize in European-named white dudes. Stauskas, Moe, Iggy, and now Franz.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:48 PM ^
They survived Haliburton. Nwora don't scare me.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
I guess someone has to be number 1 at this point, but not too worried...who have they played?? They sound like the inverse of UNC...great shooters but not especially athletic. Get up on the shooters turn them into drivers or passers, let Teske clean up. The only thing is the road factor...what if they whistle a couple cheap fouls on Teske...and possibly fatigue.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
I already felt pretty confident going into this game. After reading that preview, I feel even more confident. I feel guard play absolutely favors Michigan. Any hint of turnover problems for opposing PGs and you know Simpson can really disrupt their offense. If we can handle the Bacot/Brooks and Petrusev/Tillie matchups in the bahamas, I don't see us struggling with Enoch/Sutton. As for Nwora, its seems like if you slow him down you really cause problems for the rest of their offense. Given Livers' defensive ability and the length problems Wagner presents, I feel like we can get the job done on Nwora.
If we play anywhere near how well we played in the bahamas, and don't have to deal with terrible officiating, we win this game somewhat comfortably. There could be an emotional let down after last week, but this is an experienced, confident team that gets a shot at the "#1 team in the country," I would be shocked if they came out flat.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
Yeah, I can already see that the home whistle will get Teske on the bench for most of the 1st half, keeping this game closer than it should be.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
Tonight feels like a 'Teske gets into foul trouble' sort of game.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
Anyone wanna give me a tip on the best betting website with the biggest bonus, on Michigan to win national title? I believe it's currently 20-1 odds and I'd like to get a big sign up bonus, and never have bet online. If they win tonight the odds will drop to 11-1, where Louisville sits
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
The only problems I have seen with this team is foul trouble and bad turnovers. Energy sometimes seemed to be a problem with Beilein teams- sometimes they came out flat and had to catch up. This is one thing I have not seen of this Howard team yet.
Still I am very pleasantly surprised by the play of this team- they haven't backed down to anyone yet. Let's see how they respond in a big road game.
Go Blue!
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
The turnover problem seems to be a natural consequence of the players adjusting to a more fast-paced offense. That will likely get cleaned up as the season progresses (as a matter of fact, it's already being cleaned up; we only committed 11 against Gonzaga compared with 17 against Appalachian State).
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:35 PM ^
I think we're going to let the Big Sleep eat..... Teske could have a career night tonight. I won't be surprised if we attack down low until they stop us. Big Sleep and C4 dominating the paint.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:43 PM ^
Strength of schedule 85th? Is that greatly affected by us handing our first 7 teams 7 losses early in the season?
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Michigan's relatively low because there are a lot of teams that do nothing but go on the road for buy games. There are 3 high majors in the top 40 spots.
December 3rd, 2019 at 6:34 PM ^
I know that playing Elon and Houston Baptist is stupid, when Central and Eastern Michigan are just as much auto-win 150 spots higher in KenPom, but do you know why State's SOS is 40 and UM's is 85 when the schedules compare like this?
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