Spent last Sunday with a cold and ended up watching last year’s Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Nebraska games. One worrying bit that stood out was the number of times Haskins was able to shed a shoukd-be tackle at the LOS and churn out a 3rd & 2-4….and the times where Corum gets the same chance and can’t fall forward.
Great Wall of China - Christmas morning at about 9:00 with a clear blue sky, and had done my research to visit the right spots at the right times so there were only a few ant-sized people visible for about a mile-long stretch.
Hiked along the Wall for about an hour, seeing only a handful of people, then saw a 60s-something Chinese gentleman coming the opposite direction with the block ‘M’ on his cap, and his huge grin was apparently fixed on my maize and blue sweatshirt.
Had a great chat. Dude went to M in the early 80s, which was very interesting. Have his email saved but haven’t been back to Beijing for a visit.
Good call. There’s a reference to Coach K being ~’Don Corleone when he needs to be’ and, yeah, Fredo had to be passed over. (not completely fair comparison for Amaker but you get the drift).
I’m much more interested to see what the book might reveal about the CoachK/Bobby Knight relationship and how it “ended” at a 2015 West Point reunion.
First thought whenever Inge comes up is still that Home Run Derby.
I don’t think he would have ended up as a perennial all-star but there had been some noted improvement, hence his All-Star selection. Too lazy to go back and check his WAR over time, but that Derby seemed to be a turning point in his quest to be a plus-hitter in addition to being a decent utility fielder and great clubhouse guy.
Glad he’s in a good place in AA. Always was a fan despite some (deserved) criticism.
Apologies for not going back to find their usernames, but the posts in the previews that went along the lines of “this is hard to follow for those of us who don’t follow M hockey as close as we should” resonated with me and I wonder if Alex took note.
Whether you did or not, Alex, I think this helps the guilty rest of us who aren’t as plugged in. Many thanks for a great recap.
Tung Po Fish Market in the North Point district of Hong Kong.
Bottom floor is where they bring in the daily catch, second floor are shipping offices, third floor is cafeteria seating with dozens of different restaurants and stalls. Each shop spends the day finding the best product for the night’s specials.
It’s easy to spend 3-4 hours ordering different dishes (whether you know what you’re eating or not) from various shops and downing bowls (yes, bowls) of cold beer to beat the heat.
You got the Penn State part right, but the year wrong.
Judgment Day. 1997. Despite being undefeated and making it into the top-5, there was some skepticism around the country, around the Big-10, and even around some in the fan base about whether Michigan was elite.
It only took a few possessions for everyone to realize that, ohhh yeah, Michigan was.
1. Alabama
2/3. OSU - CFPC has already shown they hold them highly.
2/3. Clemson - Based on H2H over Looville
4. Wisconsin - CFPC can't leave out B1G champ with 2 solid losses.
5/6. Washington - P12 Champ means something...just not as much as B1G champ. Although, I think Washington drops another one.
5/6. Louisville - CFPC has shown they don't respect them and they have no chance to make a case from here out.
Michigan vs. Washington in the Rose Bowl?
Penn St. vs. Louisville in the Orange?
WMU vs. LSU in the Sugar?
But lezzzbehonest, a lot will be revealed when CFPC rankings come out this week and the rest of us still aren't 100% about which criteria outweighs which.
Will be very interesting to see who gets WMU in their NY6 Bowl. I've seen projections for LSU, Oklahoma, PSU, and Nebraska.
Would love to see Western and Fleck get a crack at one of those and go Boise State on them...
Major rugby tournaments integrate a margin-of-victory aspect into pool play. 4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, and 0 for a loss. However, a team can earn an extra point by scoring 4 tries (my Aussie/Kiwi friends still laugh at me when I say touchdown because they LITERALLY have to touch the ball down to the ground) and teams losing by less than 8 points get somewhat of a consolation point.
This wouldn't necessarily work for your hypothetical system because teams aren't attempting to hit these "bonus point thresholds," but this system seems to have worked in rugby. Yes, it was a change, but teams adjusted. You'll see a team up by 25 points working to score a try in the waning minutes or a team down 9 trying desperately to score a kick to get the extra point.
Biggest detraction to this is that it's in pool play where all teams play each other within the same pool, which isn't the case for NCAAF. Only works if everyone is playing the same slate of games.
This would be more fun if you could choose more than just how the next game goes for each team, but if you click "Win Out" for Ohio State, this projection shows M at a 16% chance to make the playoff.
Surely there is more than a 16% chance that either Washington or Clemson lose, so the 538 model is indicating that there's a good/decent chance that either Louisville or a B12 Champion Oklahoma can jump a 1-loss M.
If M loses a dandy in Columbus, there are no other shakeups and all else is chalk...
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Louisville (For those who suggested a media bias toward Lamar Jackson. LOLZ. The media would kill for M and Harbaugh to be in the CFP and I think the CFPC showed their lack of love for Louisville in their first rankings)
7. Oklahoma (Would jump up based on Auburn's loss to Alabama and Wiscy's loss to OSU in the B1G).
8. WMU (Okay, maybe not, but let an alumnus dream...)
M needs a Clemson OR Washington loss. OSU losing to Wiscy in the B1G might hurt us
Michigan ran the ball 39 times and only 3 of those attempts failed to gain 3 yards or more (-1, 1, 2). That's a 92% clip at which the run offense is, at bare minimum, making adequate progress to move the chains.
MANBALL. But it's not...big credit for this goes to the diversification of the offense. But what an advantage for Harbaugh/Drevno going forward to be able to dial up a simple dive or counter and count on 3-5 yards.
I'm living overseas and a friend has taken to waking up at Midnight or 3:30 with me on Sunday mornings to watch M. I've shown him your YouTube collection and it's been his tutorial on "American Football" and the tradition/history of Michigan.
Our best chance of winning the title is being able to plan for them. 2014 OSU and this Michigan team have enough size and talent that we want game planning as an x factor that could possible go our way. Saban is King but Urbz and JH are two guys that could out-prepare Saban for one game.
It really looks like #5 is going to be representing M as a Heisman finalist in December. Can't deny the bump in exposure or recruiting. You can be sure that JH/Don Brown will be pushing this hard with every LB/DB prospect in the near future.
Seems that among M fans and the media alike, Jabrill is going to be compared with Woodson. Whether this is fair or not is another debate, but M will need to be undefeated with Jabrill having some major highlights in the OSU & B1G Championship games if he's going to make a serious push.
I didn't know that anybody could ever top Desmond's punt return, but Woodson matched it. Let's see what JB5 can do...
...we understand that any game (especially a confernce road game or rivalry game) can jump up and bite you at any time. Look at NC St. @ Clemson or OSU @ PSU or so many games from past seasons. I'll be waking up at midnight to watch the Staee game and be as nervous and anxioius as any game........but can still talk potential/theoretical situations. That's the beauty of the sport.
That said. Jabril, Wilton, Jourdain, Mr. Butt....if you're reading this and Coach hasn't drilled this into your heads from Day 1, Saturday is your championship. Beat State.
...I think there's a possibility Michigan could lose The Game and still make the B1G Championship because OSU drops another game.
Wisconsin's was able to go toe-to-toe with OSU yardage-wise (and then some), and their green roster was exposed via some not-so-special special teams moments. The Buckeyes don't seem to have the focus that M has right now and there's some legitimate concerns on all 3 sides of the ball. Nebraska and Northwestern each have momentum, and I'm personally glad that OSU is playing in College Park rather than M. Definitely could see OSU limping into The Game at 9-2.
Then again. M could drop a game, too, so let's just make it all moot and get that win in The Shoe.
After years of being nagged by the pesky Carthaginians, Scipio instructed his Romans to leave no stone standing and to plow salt in the fields (more anecdotal than actually true, I think is the general academic assumption these days).
I'm thinking we see The Train used a few more times this season as a way to set up an opponent in a future game. Harbs runs the same play 2-3-4 times out of The Train and then something completely different in a big spot against OSU, B1G West Champ, or CFP opponent.
...none of us are privvy to exactly what is said and considered by the CFPC. I think the scenario you brought up with Washington and Clemson are interesting and I tend to disagree based on who those teams' losses would come against. Here's a best case scenario for each of those two teams to have 2 losses...
Michigan (11-1): Loss @ #2 Ohio State.
Washington (11-2): Losses @ #21 Utah and unranked team (@WSU? Home vs. USC or UCLA?).
Clemson (11-2): Losses @ #14 FSU and home loss to unranked team.
Granted, those two teams would have better wins than Michigan, but I think the clout and reputation of the B1G helps M if they only lose a close one in the Horseshoe. Again, I don't know that any of us know how that would play out within the CFPC.
But, in the name of Harbaugh, let's just book our CFP ticket on Thanksgiving weekend (oops, B1G Champ game, too).
...none of us are privvy to exactly what is said and considered by the CFPC. I think the scenario you brought up with Washington and Clemson are interesting and I tend to disagree based on who those teams' losses would come against. Here's a best case scenario for each of those two teams to have 2 losses...
Michigan (11-1): Loss @ #2 Ohio State.
Washington (11-2): Losses @ #21 Utah and unranked team (@WSU? Home vs. USC or UCLA?).
Clemson (11-2): Losses @ #14 FSU and home loss to unranked team.
Granted, those two teams would have better wins than Michigan, but I think the clout and reputation of the B1G helps M if they only lose a close one in the Horseshoe. Again, I don't know that any of us know how that would play out within the CFPC.
But, in the name of Harbaugh, let's just book our CFP ticket on Thanksgiving weekend (oops, B1G Champ game, too).
"I agree this game against Michigan is the most important game we may have ever played."
This is not only sadly true about how Rutgers fans are feeling about this game, but sadly accurate to show how idiotic and unaware of themselves they are. Not to throw Rutgers love, but how does anyone put that above "Pademonium in Piscataway?" Beating a #3 team and putting yourself in the top-10 is (for Rutgers) a pretty huge moment.
That being said, I sense an MSU mentality of taking more pleasure in M's failure than in their own success.
if that scenario holds true, these teams are ahead of us I think..
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson (I think they jump 1-loss M even if they drop a game and can win the ACC)
3. 1-loss or undefeated SEC Champion
4. Undefeated Washington
5. Houston/Louisville winner (Houston undefeated or 1-loss Louisville)
This means we need two of the above to not happen. I think those first 3 will hold, meaning we need Washington to lose and hope that Houston/Louisville isn't the national quarterfinal game that I'm thinking it is. Baylor could run the table, but I think the CFPC puts 1-loss M over Baylor because of Baylor's possibility to have ZERO wins over top-25 teams.
Obviously, this is not something we want to see happen, but if M loses The Game and finds itself in 2006 all over again, what are we looking at as far as making it into the top four?
Just off the top of my head, I'm thinking this is where we stand with the other contenders...
1. Undefeated Ohio State
2. Undefeated Clemson
3. 1-loss SEC Champion
4. Undefeated Washington
5. Louisville/Houston winner
6. 1-loss Michigan
7. Undefeated Baylor
Note: Undefeated Bama would definitely be #1, but that schedule...
And different voters cast their ballots using both of these methods. My guess is that the Coaches would tend to lean more toward the "Who is Best" method and the AP leans toward "Most Deserving," but I have no way of proving that.
Most Deserving - you hit it on the head.
Who is Best???
1a. Death Star Tuscaloosa
1b. Death Star Columbus
3. Loovull
4. M
5. Stanford/Clemson are interchangeable to me right now. Clemson with a high upside.
I picture Harbaugh as a combination of both Hannibals. Part general who brought an empire to its knees, and part genius psychopath that wins in the end and eats his opponent's flesh.
You root for Ole Miss in this one because of how unlikely it is that they're a 1-loss SEC champion even if they win tonight.
FSU is more dangerous to me because they've got their two toughest games (Clemson, Florida) at home and only have true road threats at Loovull and Miami (YTM).
While the argument of M getting its rematch with O$U is a harder sell than the 1997 debate, Gary Danielson did the same thing for Florida on the CBS broadcast of the 2006 SEC Championship against Arkansas. I remember the 2nd half featuring an array of graphics and telestrations about how a 1-loss team who beat an unranked South Carolina team at home (on a last-second blocked field goal) should get in over the team who lost on the road by 3 to the unanimous #1 (on an iffy late hit penalty).
Currently have a group of 4 of us watching the bigger M games in Guangzhou. Anyone interested in helping me teach an Aussie, a German, and a Syrian the intricacies of football, the awesomeness of M, and why that #5 guy is so good, get at me. BYOCoffee.
Recent Comments
Spent last Sunday with a cold and ended up watching last year’s Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Nebraska games. One worrying bit that stood out was the number of times Haskins was able to shed a shoukd-be tackle at the LOS and churn out a 3rd & 2-4….and the times where Corum gets the same chance and can’t fall forward.
Amazing part of the world. Stop making me miss it!
Great Wall of China - Christmas morning at about 9:00 with a clear blue sky, and had done my research to visit the right spots at the right times so there were only a few ant-sized people visible for about a mile-long stretch.
Hiked along the Wall for about an hour, seeing only a handful of people, then saw a 60s-something Chinese gentleman coming the opposite direction with the block ‘M’ on his cap, and his huge grin was apparently fixed on my maize and blue sweatshirt.
Had a great chat. Dude went to M in the early 80s, which was very interesting. Have his email saved but haven’t been back to Beijing for a visit.
Good call. There’s a reference to Coach K being ~’Don Corleone when he needs to be’ and, yeah, Fredo had to be passed over. (not completely fair comparison for Amaker but you get the drift).
I’m much more interested to see what the book might reveal about the CoachK/Bobby Knight relationship and how it “ended” at a 2015 West Point reunion.
First thought whenever Inge comes up is still that Home Run Derby.
I don’t think he would have ended up as a perennial all-star but there had been some noted improvement, hence his All-Star selection. Too lazy to go back and check his WAR over time, but that Derby seemed to be a turning point in his quest to be a plus-hitter in addition to being a decent utility fielder and great clubhouse guy.
Glad he’s in a good place in AA. Always was a fan despite some (deserved) criticism.
0-6, 6-0, 0-6, 6-0, 7-6 (31-29)
The traditional conventions of poll voters compel them to keep Penn State at #7 with a win lolz
Apologies for not going back to find their usernames, but the posts in the previews that went along the lines of “this is hard to follow for those of us who don’t follow M hockey as close as we should” resonated with me and I wonder if Alex took note.
Whether you did or not, Alex, I think this helps the guilty rest of us who aren’t as plugged in. Many thanks for a great recap.
After 103 years, Montreal finally picks up their first Western Conference trophy.
Well, this didn't age well....
Tung Po Fish Market in the North Point district of Hong Kong.
Bottom floor is where they bring in the daily catch, second floor are shipping offices, third floor is cafeteria seating with dozens of different restaurants and stalls. Each shop spends the day finding the best product for the night’s specials.
It’s easy to spend 3-4 hours ordering different dishes (whether you know what you’re eating or not) from various shops and downing bowls (yes, bowls) of cold beer to beat the heat.
You got the Penn State part right, but the year wrong.
Judgment Day. 1997. Despite being undefeated and making it into the top-5, there was some skepticism around the country, around the Big-10, and even around some in the fan base about whether Michigan was elite.
It only took a few possessions for everyone to realize that, ohhh yeah, Michigan was.
Major rugby tournaments integrate a margin-of-victory aspect into pool play. 4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, and 0 for a loss. However, a team can earn an extra point by scoring 4 tries (my Aussie/Kiwi friends still laugh at me when I say touchdown because they LITERALLY have to touch the ball down to the ground) and teams losing by less than 8 points get somewhat of a consolation point.
This wouldn't necessarily work for your hypothetical system because teams aren't attempting to hit these "bonus point thresholds," but this system seems to have worked in rugby. Yes, it was a change, but teams adjusted. You'll see a team up by 25 points working to score a try in the waning minutes or a team down 9 trying desperately to score a kick to get the extra point.
Biggest detraction to this is that it's in pool play where all teams play each other within the same pool, which isn't the case for NCAAF. Only works if everyone is playing the same slate of games.
...that "upvote for your wife" has been written in an entirely-appropriate context.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/
This would be more fun if you could choose more than just how the next game goes for each team, but if you click "Win Out" for Ohio State, this projection shows M at a 16% chance to make the playoff.
Surely there is more than a 16% chance that either Washington or Clemson lose, so the 538 model is indicating that there's a good/decent chance that either Louisville or a B12 Champion Oklahoma can jump a 1-loss M.
If M loses a dandy in Columbus, there are no other shakeups and all else is chalk...
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Louisville (For those who suggested a media bias toward Lamar Jackson. LOLZ. The media would kill for M and Harbaugh to be in the CFP and I think the CFPC showed their lack of love for Louisville in their first rankings)
7. Oklahoma (Would jump up based on Auburn's loss to Alabama and Wiscy's loss to OSU in the B1G).
8. WMU (Okay, maybe not, but let an alumnus dream...)
M needs a Clemson OR Washington loss. OSU losing to Wiscy in the B1G might hurt us
Michigan ran the ball 39 times and only 3 of those attempts failed to gain 3 yards or more (-1, 1, 2). That's a 92% clip at which the run offense is, at bare minimum, making adequate progress to move the chains.
MANBALL. But it's not...big credit for this goes to the diversification of the offense. But what an advantage for Harbaugh/Drevno going forward to be able to dial up a simple dive or counter and count on 3-5 yards.
I'm living overseas and a friend has taken to waking up at Midnight or 3:30 with me on Sunday mornings to watch M. I've shown him your YouTube collection and it's been his tutorial on "American Football" and the tradition/history of Michigan.
...Michigan players that will receive Heisman votes.
Our best chance of winning the title is being able to plan for them. 2014 OSU and this Michigan team have enough size and talent that we want game planning as an x factor that could possible go our way. Saban is King but Urbz and JH are two guys that could out-prepare Saban for one game.
It really looks like #5 is going to be representing M as a Heisman finalist in December. Can't deny the bump in exposure or recruiting. You can be sure that JH/Don Brown will be pushing this hard with every LB/DB prospect in the near future.
Seems that among M fans and the media alike, Jabrill is going to be compared with Woodson. Whether this is fair or not is another debate, but M will need to be undefeated with Jabrill having some major highlights in the OSU & B1G Championship games if he's going to make a serious push.
I didn't know that anybody could ever top Desmond's punt return, but Woodson matched it. Let's see what JB5 can do...
...just like a good University representative should. He's got bigger fish to fry.
...we understand that any game (especially a confernce road game or rivalry game) can jump up and bite you at any time. Look at NC St. @ Clemson or OSU @ PSU or so many games from past seasons. I'll be waking up at midnight to watch the Staee game and be as nervous and anxioius as any game........but can still talk potential/theoretical situations. That's the beauty of the sport.
That said. Jabril, Wilton, Jourdain, Mr. Butt....if you're reading this and Coach hasn't drilled this into your heads from Day 1, Saturday is your championship. Beat State.
We have the pleasure, as fans, to postulate and predict as much as we want. Keep that talk out of the locker room and M will be fine.
...I think there's a possibility Michigan could lose The Game and still make the B1G Championship because OSU drops another game.
Wisconsin's was able to go toe-to-toe with OSU yardage-wise (and then some), and their green roster was exposed via some not-so-special special teams moments. The Buckeyes don't seem to have the focus that M has right now and there's some legitimate concerns on all 3 sides of the ball. Nebraska and Northwestern each have momentum, and I'm personally glad that OSU is playing in College Park rather than M. Definitely could see OSU limping into The Game at 9-2.
Then again. M could drop a game, too, so let's just make it all moot and get that win in The Shoe.
After years of being nagged by the pesky Carthaginians, Scipio instructed his Romans to leave no stone standing and to plow salt in the fields (more anecdotal than actually true, I think is the general academic assumption these days).
Go for two.
I'm thinking we see The Train used a few more times this season as a way to set up an opponent in a future game. Harbs runs the same play 2-3-4 times out of The Train and then something completely different in a big spot against OSU, B1G West Champ, or CFP opponent.
...can Michigan Stadium ever match May Day Stadium's 104% spectator approval rating?
...none of us are privvy to exactly what is said and considered by the CFPC. I think the scenario you brought up with Washington and Clemson are interesting and I tend to disagree based on who those teams' losses would come against. Here's a best case scenario for each of those two teams to have 2 losses...
Michigan (11-1): Loss @ #2 Ohio State.
Washington (11-2): Losses @ #21 Utah and unranked team (@WSU? Home vs. USC or UCLA?).
Clemson (11-2): Losses @ #14 FSU and home loss to unranked team.
Granted, those two teams would have better wins than Michigan, but I think the clout and reputation of the B1G helps M if they only lose a close one in the Horseshoe. Again, I don't know that any of us know how that would play out within the CFPC.
But, in the name of Harbaugh, let's just book our CFP ticket on Thanksgiving weekend (oops, B1G Champ game, too).
...none of us are privvy to exactly what is said and considered by the CFPC. I think the scenario you brought up with Washington and Clemson are interesting and I tend to disagree based on who those teams' losses would come against. Here's a best case scenario for each of those two teams to have 2 losses...
Michigan (11-1): Loss @ #2 Ohio State.
Washington (11-2): Losses @ #21 Utah and unranked team (@WSU? Home vs. USC or UCLA?).
Clemson (11-2): Losses @ #14 FSU and home loss to unranked team.
Granted, those two teams would have better wins than Michigan, but I think the clout and reputation of the B1G helps M if they only lose a close one in the Horseshoe. Again, I don't know that any of us know how that would play out within the CFPC.
But, in the name of Harbaugh, let's just book our CFP ticket on Thanksgiving weekend (oops, B1G Champ game, too).
"I agree this game against Michigan is the most important game we may have ever played."
This is not only sadly true about how Rutgers fans are feeling about this game, but sadly accurate to show how idiotic and unaware of themselves they are. Not to throw Rutgers love, but how does anyone put that above "Pademonium in Piscataway?" Beating a #3 team and putting yourself in the top-10 is (for Rutgers) a pretty huge moment.
That being said, I sense an MSU mentality of taking more pleasure in M's failure than in their own success.
Logging in just to show my appreciation, good sir.
if that scenario holds true, these teams are ahead of us I think..
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson (I think they jump 1-loss M even if they drop a game and can win the ACC)
3. 1-loss or undefeated SEC Champion
4. Undefeated Washington
5. Houston/Louisville winner (Houston undefeated or 1-loss Louisville)
This means we need two of the above to not happen. I think those first 3 will hold, meaning we need Washington to lose and hope that Houston/Louisville isn't the national quarterfinal game that I'm thinking it is. Baylor could run the table, but I think the CFPC puts 1-loss M over Baylor because of Baylor's possibility to have ZERO wins over top-25 teams.
Obviously, this is not something we want to see happen, but if M loses The Game and finds itself in 2006 all over again, what are we looking at as far as making it into the top four?
Just off the top of my head, I'm thinking this is where we stand with the other contenders...
1. Undefeated Ohio State
2. Undefeated Clemson
3. 1-loss SEC Champion
4. Undefeated Washington
5. Louisville/Houston winner
6. 1-loss Michigan
7. Undefeated Baylor
Note: Undefeated Bama would definitely be #1, but that schedule...
And different voters cast their ballots using both of these methods. My guess is that the Coaches would tend to lean more toward the "Who is Best" method and the AP leans toward "Most Deserving," but I have no way of proving that.
Most Deserving - you hit it on the head.
Who is Best???
1a. Death Star Tuscaloosa
1b. Death Star Columbus
3. Loovull
4. M
5. Stanford/Clemson are interchangeable to me right now. Clemson with a high upside.
I picture Harbaugh as a combination of both Hannibals. Part general who brought an empire to its knees, and part genius psychopath that wins in the end and eats his opponent's flesh.
...but not as miserable as Ole Miss' schedule.
You root for Ole Miss in this one because of how unlikely it is that they're a 1-loss SEC champion even if they win tonight.
FSU is more dangerous to me because they've got their two toughest games (Clemson, Florida) at home and only have true road threats at Loovull and Miami (YTM).