"If the only way you can descend the mountain is by skidding on your heels, the run is too hard for you. You're not really snowboarding and you're ruining the snow for everyone else."
Dan Enos as OC? Enos hired Moore at CMU. Harbaugh Analyst. Not sure how I feel about this but wouldn’t be terrible to get a guy w some experience on the staff.
Other HC Sherrone is connected to is Charlie Strong who is/was an analyst at Bama. Not sure if he would be up for on field role at this point.
Harbaugh knew a LOT of people in football. Gonna be harder for SM but I’m sure he’ll do ok.
If he ends up needing to apply for a position at UM later this month, I think his entire application file should be a .png of this photo. What more is needed?
I’m sorry but it’s worth mentioning that Chesapeake VA is not in the DMV. Quite different place. Grayling is closer to Metro Detroit than Norfolk is to DC.
Given game time, it seems like much of the game will be under the lights, so don't really need to worry about sun in the eyes. True or false?
If true, is there a best section for sunset views? Another way to put the question, I suppose, might be: is the UCLA/Alabama sideline North of the field or some other orientation?
Love a rum punch style drink but anybody have any guidance on substituting almond extract (I have three teenage daughters who lived through covid -- i'm sure we have some in the pantry) for amaretto, which doesn't make the bar cabinet?
I think Moore is the biggest 'X Factor' on the team this year, in the sense that the span of outcomes could change the team's ability to win a Playoff football game. Floor is a good solid B/B- Big Ten edge with moments, but the ceiling is ... well ... not sure there is a ceiling. If he comes close to that ceiling, it would transform the edge position from just a bit better than solid and frankly somewhat weak for a playoff team to a strength.
Yeah -- this is very sober and smart comment, but I would offer one nuance ...
Totally agree that USA has plenty of resources invested in women's soccer nationally, but those investments are super, super focused on youth and college vs pro. And so we bring many players up to a certain level, but not much higher and the investment is really pretty shallow, I think, at pro level.
NWSL is not, as far as I can tell, the league of choice anymore -- more USWNT-level players have played in Europe in the last 5 years (including our captain!) than I can remember in the ten years previously. Why are they going there? Because NWSL isn't very good soccer. NWSL salary cap is $1.4 million. Arsenal women's team salary is ~$5 million. Which team is likely to have better players? Which team is likely to have better supporting investment?
I think that's the big difference. The Euro teams look more physical and better prepared for the speed of play. Americans are clearly adjusting -- you can see it all over, too many touches, missed chances by Morgan, Rodman and Smith trying to dribble thru double teams, etc. These players are doing stuff that works in NWSL but doesn't in WC.
There probably is a tactical naivety side to this too, but I don't think that's the main problem. Much of the world plays a 4-3-3 ... It seems pretty clear at this point that our team probably just doesn't have enough really, really good players.
I think the key point is that Deion has HUGE variance in terms of outcomes. And when your Colorado, that's exactly who you should hire. Not some guy who might improve you from 2-9 to 5-4. You're risking absolutely nothing, so swing for the fences.
To be honest, this seems pretty easy. One of these decisions is reversible. the other is not to the same extent. If you send him to the private school, you can always change your mind. But if you don't send him now, the enabling scholarship is not likely to reappear. Right?
2 cents, and you get what you pay for ...
good luck - dj
ps - i sent my kid to all boys high school and it was fine although we moved him to neighborhood public school bc the private school recruited from much wider area and his friends were from all over the place, making it hard to be social.
D3 is great. I'm only speculating bc I was never exposed to D1, but I would assume as you select D3 opportunities it is even more important to not fall in love with the athletics situation. Must be committed to the school itself. Also I would not want to play D3 on a losing team. I remember seeing some of the guys I played (tennis) and it baffled my mind that they stuck with it - I'm sure their practices were a joke and team camaraderie could not have been a lot better than iffy.
Hey Matt, based on what you say, Marvel Allen sounds a bit like Johnny Davis. Any comparison there? Obviously JD was awesome this year, and there's no reason to think a guy at MA's recruiting ranking would play like that. But nobody expected JD to be this good either!
Kyle Whittingham from Utah? I know he has coached in Utah forever and he's 62, but that team almost never looks anything other than organized and tough, and he may see more championship equity at Michigan. (maybe not) Certainly we can pay more than $4/year.
Hard to get behind hiring an outside assistant. Mike Hart seems really implausible. Staff continuity would be nice but that's, to repeat myself, a would be nice, not a must have.
Nice job. Pretty weak on DL, especially edge positions (no surprise). Welschof, Jenkins and Benny will be interesting to watch next year. Each have a little burst for their size. Will the 3 down lineup be a little more of a pass rushing look than it was this year? Does the (lack of) depth at NG prevent using these DTs as much as you'd like?
It's not just the question of is Calculus 101 the same at Michigan and Tennessee. That's an issue but probably not the main issue.
The more important issue is Michigan doesn't have a Parks and Recreation major, for example, and so Andy Katzenmoyer (old OSU LB)'s famous basketweaving and football coaching and grass watering classes would not contribute to any UM degree. Michigan has some majors that are less liberal arts than others, but basketweaving doesn't entering anywhere on the curriculum, unless you can argue its a gen ed art credit.
And it doesn't have to be an OSU dummy. It could also be some genius at Texas A&M who has taken 50 hours on mining. Well, Michigan doesn't have a mining degree, so it's gonna be hard -- no matter how excellent those classes were -- for that student to graduate Michigan on time.
NCAA promulgates requirements that athletes have to be on track toward a degree. Michigan can't answer 'yes' in the case of lots of transfers.
these are consistently insightful and well written -- thanks for your time in the salt mines of Northwestern and NIU, AD.
One cautionary note re the MSU defense is that I would think, given plays faced breakdown you show, they have really never bent their defense against the run. They clearly will in this game. While that opens other things up, it complicates a little what you can learn from analysis of run D against teams they just just weren't afraid of. I'm sure we will see a somewhat different plan this week.
I hope Mich takes a couple deep shots early, both because they are exciting to me as a fan but also because I do think those will enforce discipline on the MSU secondary. I imagine UM will be content to settle into game, however.
I like your old fashioned just fine and agree heartily re the muddle. However, IMO the perfect 'old fashioned' is rye, sweet vermouth and Campari. 2 or so:1:1 -- it's very forgiving, so eyeballing it seems fine. I generally splash w/ soda. Simple as can be, very hard to top.
I have a minor suggestion. Would you total the snaps for each position group? eg, TE= 32+41+34-3+3=107=1.5 TE/snap. That would help us get a sense of how the team is lining up. Thanks!
Feel you. I was a real 5.0+ back in the day. Took 10 years off so I entered a 4.0/4.5 league. First match was against a dude who had just finished at Indiana. WTF. (No bagels for him, at least.)
To prove my bona fides, I still play w/ the Pro Staff. Pete's pro staff.
Miami seems like a really nice school, and especially so if you're in-state. I tried to get my son to think about it, but he was small school all the way (and probably right about that).
I think you missed the MLS starlet of the month ... Caleb Cowell (17y.o. San Jose Earthquake). Very skilled, very strong for a 17 year old, excellent head of hair.
the pass here is even better than the fancy-footwork goal, and he added another goal the next week against my woebegone United:
I think you missed the MLS starlet of the month ... Caleb Cowell (17y.o. San Jose Earthquake). Very skilled, very strong for a 17 year old, excellent head of hair.
the pass here is even better than the fancy-footwork goal, and he added another goal the next week against my woebegone United:
Your's is an interesting and good suggestion. Surprised it has not been done.
I actually think the big simple chart up top is a good stab at the question that's being asked: for a given class of recruits, how many go to the NFL? Using class rankings as dependent variable allows for over performing 3 Stars (Kwity!) and under achieving 5 stars (can't think of any!).
I spent many, many Saturday afternoons as a ball boy at Muddy Waters Field, cheering on the Chargers (especially from the home side of the field). It was a great job for a kid. We were well paid in donuts. Probably could have had left over coffee too, but not really of interest when you're 11.
With all respect, I think I get better knee bend on my jump shot at 48. But his knees have probably taken more in 20 years than mine in lo these many years.
Nice to see him shooting it well. I saw HD in HS a handful of times (my son was a year behind at Dematha) and his form has always been great. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't shoot 2.5 a game.
Could you clarify what you mean by Tiers? Are they best team / most likely to make Final 4 (forward looking) or are they most likely to win BIG regular season title or some other resume evaluation (backward looking)?
If latter, I think you could move OSU and Iowa down a tier from Illinois. If forward looking, this is probably right, although I think Minn and Rutgers are better than their neighbors (I understand the desire to have less than 8 tiers).
#1 change needed is to make the program fun and aspirational again. This is narrative shit but I guess I think it matters. Why do UM guys bail at first opportunity? I think the program is no fun. Get wild, get fun, stop shitting on guys, let's get some wins, and who knows? It's not out of the question Harbaugh can turn stuff around, but it's hard to expect. But better and happier players seems like a great starting point. Fuck OSU. They aren't relevant anymore. But let's set our sights on PSU and Wisconsin.
The Athletic guys are hung up on some pretty dumb stuff, quite frankly, which is surprising because I think they are smart observers of college sports. But in the end, who cares if Jim takes media seriously? (Does that impact players, recruits or fans? Not really.) Who cares if Warde Manuel saved $4 million? (Will those savings impact WINNING somehow? Only if it goes directly into recruiting.) Is Warde Manuel Jim Harbaugh's boss all of a sudden? (No, not in any way that practically helps the team achieve its goals.) That said, I do think there is one non-trivial point that they have right, COVID really mattered to outcomes this year, and as the year progressed, teams that still had stuff at stake continued to perform, and teams that had less at stake began to slack off at a much, much greater pace than normal. And the Athletic guys have been signaling Covid as a financial and performance outlier for a long time.
Recent Comments
"If the only way you can descend the mountain is by skidding on your heels, the run is too hard for you. You're not really snowboarding and you're ruining the snow for everyone else."
The world needs more boarders like you, Tom J.
Dan Enos as OC? Enos hired Moore at CMU. Harbaugh Analyst. Not sure how I feel about this but wouldn’t be terrible to get a guy w some experience on the staff.
Other HC Sherrone is connected to is Charlie Strong who is/was an analyst at Bama. Not sure if he would be up for on field role at this point.
Harbaugh knew a LOT of people in football. Gonna be harder for SM but I’m sure he’ll do ok.
If he ends up needing to apply for a position at UM later this month, I think his entire application file should be a .png of this photo. What more is needed?
I’m sorry but it’s worth mentioning that Chesapeake VA is not in the DMV. Quite different place. Grayling is closer to Metro Detroit than Norfolk is to DC.
For hoops team, sophomores are very hard to get in. But hoopers are supposed to have completed four semesters.
maybe it’s a little different after the third semester. Hope so.
Given game time, it seems like much of the game will be under the lights, so don't really need to worry about sun in the eyes. True or false?
If true, is there a best section for sunset views? Another way to put the question, I suppose, might be: is the UCLA/Alabama sideline North of the field or some other orientation?
Love a rum punch style drink but anybody have any guidance on substituting almond extract (I have three teenage daughters who lived through covid -- i'm sure we have some in the pantry) for amaretto, which doesn't make the bar cabinet?
welcome back -- love the series.
I think Moore is the biggest 'X Factor' on the team this year, in the sense that the span of outcomes could change the team's ability to win a Playoff football game. Floor is a good solid B/B- Big Ten edge with moments, but the ceiling is ... well ... not sure there is a ceiling. If he comes close to that ceiling, it would transform the edge position from just a bit better than solid and frankly somewhat weak for a playoff team to a strength.
Yeah -- this is very sober and smart comment, but I would offer one nuance ...
Totally agree that USA has plenty of resources invested in women's soccer nationally, but those investments are super, super focused on youth and college vs pro. And so we bring many players up to a certain level, but not much higher and the investment is really pretty shallow, I think, at pro level.
NWSL is not, as far as I can tell, the league of choice anymore -- more USWNT-level players have played in Europe in the last 5 years (including our captain!) than I can remember in the ten years previously. Why are they going there? Because NWSL isn't very good soccer. NWSL salary cap is $1.4 million. Arsenal women's team salary is ~$5 million. Which team is likely to have better players? Which team is likely to have better supporting investment?
I think that's the big difference. The Euro teams look more physical and better prepared for the speed of play. Americans are clearly adjusting -- you can see it all over, too many touches, missed chances by Morgan, Rodman and Smith trying to dribble thru double teams, etc. These players are doing stuff that works in NWSL but doesn't in WC.
There probably is a tactical naivety side to this too, but I don't think that's the main problem. Much of the world plays a 4-3-3 ... It seems pretty clear at this point that our team probably just doesn't have enough really, really good players.
I think the key point is that Deion has HUGE variance in terms of outcomes. And when your Colorado, that's exactly who you should hire. Not some guy who might improve you from 2-9 to 5-4. You're risking absolutely nothing, so swing for the fences.
To be honest, this seems pretty easy. One of these decisions is reversible. the other is not to the same extent. If you send him to the private school, you can always change your mind. But if you don't send him now, the enabling scholarship is not likely to reappear. Right?
2 cents, and you get what you pay for ...
good luck - dj
ps - i sent my kid to all boys high school and it was fine although we moved him to neighborhood public school bc the private school recruited from much wider area and his friends were from all over the place, making it hard to be social.
D3 is great. I'm only speculating bc I was never exposed to D1, but I would assume as you select D3 opportunities it is even more important to not fall in love with the athletics situation. Must be committed to the school itself. Also I would not want to play D3 on a losing team. I remember seeing some of the guys I played (tennis) and it baffled my mind that they stuck with it - I'm sure their practices were a joke and team camaraderie could not have been a lot better than iffy.
Hey Matt, based on what you say, Marvel Allen sounds a bit like Johnny Davis. Any comparison there? Obviously JD was awesome this year, and there's no reason to think a guy at MA's recruiting ranking would play like that. But nobody expected JD to be this good either!
Thanks. Good article and looks like a great series!
Congrats to your students and enjoy the moment! Keep up the good work at KIPP -- from the outside, they seem like a great organization.
Not following closely, but I believe all upcoming Olympic hockey games are @ China.
dude, today of all days, you may want to take into account that being mentioned as a candidate ain't the same thing as being offered the position.
ah sorry for recycling old news. I was just reading the paper re sham interview and made the connection.
Kyle Whittingham from Utah? I know he has coached in Utah forever and he's 62, but that team almost never looks anything other than organized and tough, and he may see more championship equity at Michigan. (maybe not) Certainly we can pay more than $4/year.
Hard to get behind hiring an outside assistant. Mike Hart seems really implausible. Staff continuity would be nice but that's, to repeat myself, a would be nice, not a must have.
How does this help OSU Football? If it doesn't, it won't happen.
Nice job. Pretty weak on DL, especially edge positions (no surprise). Welschof, Jenkins and Benny will be interesting to watch next year. Each have a little burst for their size. Will the 3 down lineup be a little more of a pass rushing look than it was this year? Does the (lack of) depth at NG prevent using these DTs as much as you'd like?
It's not just the question of is Calculus 101 the same at Michigan and Tennessee. That's an issue but probably not the main issue.
The more important issue is Michigan doesn't have a Parks and Recreation major, for example, and so Andy Katzenmoyer (old OSU LB)'s famous basketweaving and football coaching and grass watering classes would not contribute to any UM degree. Michigan has some majors that are less liberal arts than others, but basketweaving doesn't entering anywhere on the curriculum, unless you can argue its a gen ed art credit.
And it doesn't have to be an OSU dummy. It could also be some genius at Texas A&M who has taken 50 hours on mining. Well, Michigan doesn't have a mining degree, so it's gonna be hard -- no matter how excellent those classes were -- for that student to graduate Michigan on time.
NCAA promulgates requirements that athletes have to be on track toward a degree. Michigan can't answer 'yes' in the case of lots of transfers.
What's the scholarship count situation? How many commits can we take? Seems like we already have a lot of guys who have committed. Sorry, and thanks.
What's the scholarship count situation? How many commits can we take? Seems like we already have a lot of guys who have committed. Sorry, and thanks.
these are consistently insightful and well written -- thanks for your time in the salt mines of Northwestern and NIU, AD.
One cautionary note re the MSU defense is that I would think, given plays faced breakdown you show, they have really never bent their defense against the run. They clearly will in this game. While that opens other things up, it complicates a little what you can learn from analysis of run D against teams they just just weren't afraid of. I'm sure we will see a somewhat different plan this week.
I hope Mich takes a couple deep shots early, both because they are exciting to me as a fan but also because I do think those will enforce discipline on the MSU secondary. I imagine UM will be content to settle into game, however.
I like your old fashioned just fine and agree heartily re the muddle. However, IMO the perfect 'old fashioned' is rye, sweet vermouth and Campari. 2 or so:1:1 -- it's very forgiving, so eyeballing it seems fine. I generally splash w/ soda. Simple as can be, very hard to top.
This is an awesome contribution. Thank you!
I have a minor suggestion. Would you total the snaps for each position group? eg, TE= 32+41+34-3+3=107=1.5 TE/snap. That would help us get a sense of how the team is lining up. Thanks!
**39**-8 ... wow. more points for the good guys that I would guess. 28-10 feels more likely.
Feel you. I was a real 5.0+ back in the day. Took 10 years off so I entered a 4.0/4.5 league. First match was against a dude who had just finished at Indiana. WTF. (No bagels for him, at least.)
To prove my bona fides, I still play w/ the Pro Staff. Pete's pro staff.
I like the spirit, but 50% of Profit <<< 100% of Revenues, which is what is proposed above.
it's a good idea. I would contribute.
As far as the quid pro quo, why not pay him to tweet or IG or whatever a short video on what M football means to him.
Miami seems like a really nice school, and especially so if you're in-state. I tried to get my son to think about it, but he was small school all the way (and probably right about that).
Correct, Michigan needs to recruit at 67% blue chip. Up from ~57%, so improve 10% of 25/year. 2.5 more blue chips per year.
Not a massive, massive jump but hardly trivial.
Bought a Mustang E this weekend. Whew. Nice car. MSRP is a joke right now. We definitely had to pony up (hah hah).
that was really funny. Very stressful game. Did anybody figure out how they call fouls in this game? Oh, and what's the green card!?!
It's possible that there would be some adjustment on the expenditure side, no? Plus this is revenue that currently is not included in the $197.7m.
Honestly, without incorporating those rather obvious potential adjustments, your post is just as extreme as some of those that you're targeting.
I think you missed the MLS starlet of the month ... Caleb Cowell (17y.o. San Jose Earthquake). Very skilled, very strong for a 17 year old, excellent head of hair.
the pass here is even better than the fancy-footwork goal, and he added another goal the next week against my woebegone United:
https://ghanasoccernet.com/17-year-old-phenom-cade-cowell-with-a-must-s…
I think you missed the MLS starlet of the month ... Caleb Cowell (17y.o. San Jose Earthquake). Very skilled, very strong for a 17 year old, excellent head of hair.
the pass here is even better than the fancy-footwork goal, and he added another goal the next week against my woebegone United:
https://ghanasoccernet.com/17-year-old-phenom-cade-cowell-with-a-must-s…
Your's is an interesting and good suggestion. Surprised it has not been done.
I actually think the big simple chart up top is a good stab at the question that's being asked: for a given class of recruits, how many go to the NFL? Using class rankings as dependent variable allows for over performing 3 Stars (Kwity!) and under achieving 5 stars (can't think of any!).
I spent many, many Saturday afternoons as a ball boy at Muddy Waters Field, cheering on the Chargers (especially from the home side of the field). It was a great job for a kid. We were well paid in donuts. Probably could have had left over coffee too, but not really of interest when you're 11.
washington looks heavy and slow to me, but wow, that's a lot of skill. that second clip--two fakes, dribble and shoot--that's amazing from a HS big.
honestly ... ludicrous to pick any Big10 team ahead of UM not year. Just, really ... no!
With all respect, I think I get better knee bend on my jump shot at 48. But his knees have probably taken more in 20 years than mine in lo these many years.
Nice to see him shooting it well. I saw HD in HS a handful of times (my son was a year behind at Dematha) and his form has always been great. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't shoot 2.5 a game.
Could you clarify what you mean by Tiers? Are they best team / most likely to make Final 4 (forward looking) or are they most likely to win BIG regular season title or some other resume evaluation (backward looking)?
If latter, I think you could move OSU and Iowa down a tier from Illinois. If forward looking, this is probably right, although I think Minn and Rutgers are better than their neighbors (I understand the desire to have less than 8 tiers).
#1 change needed is to make the program fun and aspirational again. This is narrative shit but I guess I think it matters. Why do UM guys bail at first opportunity? I think the program is no fun. Get wild, get fun, stop shitting on guys, let's get some wins, and who knows? It's not out of the question Harbaugh can turn stuff around, but it's hard to expect. But better and happier players seems like a great starting point. Fuck OSU. They aren't relevant anymore. But let's set our sights on PSU and Wisconsin.
100%. Let's use that extra $4 million we saved. Invest in some young, talented folks who are future leaders and best.
I was hoping for a hurricane or COVID, but your scenario is acceptable.
how many guys from this famous thread were drafted? https://247sports.com/college/usc/Board/29/Contents/Alabamas-Recruiting…
until we care as much as Bama nation it will be hard to compete.
The Athletic guys are hung up on some pretty dumb stuff, quite frankly, which is surprising because I think they are smart observers of college sports. But in the end, who cares if Jim takes media seriously? (Does that impact players, recruits or fans? Not really.) Who cares if Warde Manuel saved $4 million? (Will those savings impact WINNING somehow? Only if it goes directly into recruiting.) Is Warde Manuel Jim Harbaugh's boss all of a sudden? (No, not in any way that practically helps the team achieve its goals.) That said, I do think there is one non-trivial point that they have right, COVID really mattered to outcomes this year, and as the year progressed, teams that still had stuff at stake continued to perform, and teams that had less at stake began to slack off at a much, much greater pace than normal. And the Athletic guys have been signaling Covid as a financial and performance outlier for a long time.
YOU'RE OK VIC AND your take is not hot.