Yes, June.
June, 2021.
People think this is snark, but its probably the most accurate estimate. Your risk of infection won't go away until there is a widespread availabilty of a vaccine or a cure, which experts say is likely 18 months away.
If you listen to public health experts, you quickly realize that there is very little that can be done to reduce the long term infection rate until there is a vaccine. All of the restrictions we have now are simply designed to extend the number of cases over a longer timeframe so that they do not overwhelm our healthcare system all at once (which would create a further wave of deaths due to lack of medical resources).
The current lockdown simply buys us time to increase medical capacity and to hopefully catch up on things like testing that will allow us to more efficiently manage the caseload. Eventually we will start loosen restrictions up to the point where we our health system can manage the uptick in new cases, but your personal risk of getting infected if you leave your bunker wont go away from now until there is a vaccine.
We'll see some loosening of restrictions that will permit some people to go back to work, but will probably continue to see rolling lockdowns as new cases spike toward the level of our medical capacity. Large gathering like concerts, conferences, are completely out until there is vaccine (18 months or more). Bars and restaurants will stay closed for months, and will likely face strict capacity restrictions whenever they reopen.
The most optimistic scenario is that we can ramp up widespread testing quickly enough so that we can quickly isolate infected peope and allow non-infected people to interact semi-normally.
While this is all true in the medical sense, it does not address the economic reality.
51% of Americans experience financial hardship if they miss even one paycheck. Even government stimulus will not be sufficient to keep people afloat and if these "lock down" type scenarios last more than six weeks or so, economic issues could easily become civil unrest.
We will not be able to do the medically correct thing. We will be forced to reopen relatively soon.
@Blue Middle - I completely agree with you. At some point, we will have to open and go back to business "as usual" or there will be no more "usual" when we're ready to go back.
The spread could have been largely stopped in its tracks if Dear Leader had taken this obviously horrific problem seriously when he was warned (and warned and warned) months ago. (See: South Korea.) He could have gotten the ball rolling with testing, more equipments, etc. Now, by every scientific estimation, it's too late. And it's only going to get worse because he's already suggesting his gonna lift restrictions soon, despite the exponential spread of the virus, which is already beginning to overwhelm NY. He doesn't listen to scientists and thinks he knows better. That's the ultimate recipe for disaster, and god knows how many people will die and suffer because of this.
Congress could easily implement a UBI, rent freeze, unemployment insurance etc. Like most other countries are doing, but the lack the political will, so several million will needlessly die.
Both sets of considerations are real.
Like I said, there will be a lessening of some restrictions to bring back economic activity, but certain sectors (concerts, conferences, etc.) wont be back anytime soon. I wouldn't be buying any football tickets for next fall either.
So no, we wont be in continous lockdown for two years, but we won't be returning to "normal" for a long time.
There will be disarmament on all sides. Unfortunately, I don’t think there is right answer. The science and math will have to find common ground, which is the same for our elected officials.
Who will pay for doctors, nurses, civil services for a 12 month shutdown ? States and local government will lose dollars, some have already like the San Diego port is projection over 30MM in losses in the coming months
man-this event will always be remembered and used as a case study for future generations
im weighing all sides of the debate
March 24th, 2020 at 10:47 PM ^
Pinning all of your hopes on a vaccine, eh?
September 28th, 2021 at 10:07 PM ^
Well, maybe by June 2023...
I'm hoping for May.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
President Trump said yesterday, it’s a matter of weeks not months. I had said earlier in the day yesterday that I thought mid April to early May at latest. I still stand by that. Nyc and a few other areas may be longer, but things will start going back to normal sooner, rather than later. The China Virus is bad, but the economy could end up being worse. At some point, you gotta move on. I don’t think schools come back this school year and large events probably on hold until summer.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
If that’s what he said, it must be true! Although if he took this seriously back in January we’d be out of quarantine mode, glad he’s so interested in North Korea’s crisis instead of the old US of A
March 24th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
Taking it seriously, like putting a travel ban in place back in January, that was called racist and now many other countries have followed suit? Grow up and try not to be such an idiot.
Also, he has been spending 1-2 hours in press briefings with Drs to inform everyone. He doesn’t have to do that. The last time we had a bad viral epidemic, neither of those things were done. If you don’t like our president cause you think he’s a dick and he hurts your feelings that’s fair, weak, but fair. Also something your definitely going to be dealing with for the next 5 years. However, saying he’s lying or not doing enough is idiotic.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
It's incredible that you're actually swallowing this much bullshit. I could go through all the reasons he's done jack shit and everything he's attempted to do has been too late or just lies but I'm sure I'd be wasting my time. People are dead because of those press briefings you're so impressed with. Wake the fuck up
March 24th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
Inform me please.
He placed a travel ban before anyone else. Now they are doing the same. So are all the leaders wrong? Are all of the leaders bad for not doing it sooner? What would you prefer our president do, to help? Was there something better that was done by the previous administration during the Swine Flu? Do you not believe the Drs who are working with him and speaking at the press conferences?
March 24th, 2020 at 11:21 AM ^
His first response was that coronavirus was a hoax, started by the Democrats and media. Fox "news" reported this for several days, before changing their tune after his somber press conference. Now, they both claim that they took it seriously from the start. Some of us remember the full story though.
“I like the numbers where they are”, “Soon it will be zero cases”, refusing test kits from the WHO, cutting funding and staff from the CDC every year in office...you’re ignorant
March 24th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
In order to properly be prepared he would have had to:
1. Shut down all worldwide air travel into the US back in January - not a single politician called for this.
2. Have 10,000,000 tests for a new coronavirus that ready and available back in January - not a single country in the world, not even S. Korea who acted swiftly, had this capability.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
Just because there is nothing that anyone could have done to prevent the spread of covid-19 (even if China had been forthcoming earlier, clearly they couldn’t have been aware of a novel new virus before there was some travel out of China so some spread was inevitable.
That does not mean that there are not obvious things he could have done that would pit us in better shape today:
1. He could have done more to have us prepared prior to the outbreak. He had multiple warnings that we were underprepared. Instead of working to get us better prepared (building up a stockpile of masks, improving our ability to ramp up testing) he proposed cuts to CDC.
2. As soon as it became obvious how big this crisis was likely to be, he could have taken the same steps as in #1. He also could have been more forthright with the American public instead if downplaying the risk and he could have been leading the charge for earlier less aggressive social distancing (encouraging federal workers and companies with opportunities to telework to do so, encouraging people to cut back on un-neccessary air travel, face-to-face meetings.
These things wouldn’t have prevented the problem, but they could have further slowed it down and made us much better prepared for when it did get bad.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
I agree with you....definitely failures on this administrations end that could have helped slow this down.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
blue in dc,
I disagree and here’s why. The U.S was ranked #1 in the world in late 2019 to handle a pandemic by many groups/organizations that rank such things. These include Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
Saying he didn’t have us prepared does not make sense.
On that note I appreciate your calm response, but it sounds like we were as prepared as anyone. Also, if it makes you feel better the hardest hit areas are receiving hundreds of thousands of PPE’s and other needed equipment. Likely most of which won’t be needed (hopefully). As of now ZERO hospitals are at capacity or out of equipment. Nyc just got 2k ventilators and another 2k from national stockpile tomorrow. Again, there, if needed.
We are all on the same side ??
I have family connections in NYC hospitals that said they were expecting the worst was yet to come but have so far not been hit too badly - not close to capacity yet and still have excess ventilators. That's as of last night - 3/24
I do as well and they are very worried about what is to come at the end of this week, next and so on. I personally feel bad that I have the means to escape to the North but also feel that it was prudent for me to in terms of easier to distance myself, less risk of being infected or worse, infecting others and putting a strain on resources that are needed for others.
Could we have been better prepared? I think a lot of that is hindsight, the fact is yes we could have been but we probably were more than any other country.
That said the President's leadership in this has been severely lacking. From downplaying how bad it is to saying we would wipe it out in just a matter of days, to its under control to its no worse than the flu. I thought he had finally turned the corner last week when he finally began to take it seriously, but now he's already starting to downplay it and say it'll be over far sooner than the experts have told us or he had just stated last week. He doesn't need to have all the answers or do everything right but he should show solid leadership and have a solid strategy instead of whatever is his whim of the moment or whatever Fox News is saying.
As for hospitals, I know the administrator of a large hospital here in South Carolina. His job is to procure supplies and he tells me they are very low and they will run out of PPE. We are seeing stories all over the media about nurses and doctors telling us that many are using the same mask all day long rather than a new one for every patient. Ventilators are desperately needed and will not be here until its too late.
This is a very serious issue for which I feel our President is not up to the task. He did not take it serious early on, yes he stopped travel from China but it was already too late. He continuously makes miscues and blames everyone else for them or flat out denies them. His only worry is the economy, yes we do need people to be able to work and make money, but OTOH if we take down all safeguards because the "Cure is worse than the problem" we are bound to have it even worse when half the work force is unable to make it to work because they're sick or dying and our hospitals are overwhelmed. The hospitals are often at capacity on a normal day let alone at a time like this. Not to mention that because there are so many of these cases that those with other medical needs are pushed to the side, their care is delayed or they are ignored because they don't have a life threatening issue.
NYC may have just gotten 2K ventilators and thats a great think, but the governor said today that they need another 30,000. Is that even possible in a short amount of time? Doubtful.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:27 PM ^
SK was well prepared since they had a bad outbreak of SARS in 2003. They developed the quick infrastructure to mass produce test kits, so they were one of the most prepared countries for COVID-19. I'm not sure if any US president would have prepared us. We are not like China and cannot just lock everyone in their homes. The grocery stores are probably the point of spread now, since so many people are shopping and hording.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
I wish he'd do less. A lot less.
Like go into the back room and watch reruns of the apprentice while the experts talk.
He's using the press briefings to replace his sycophantic rallies and half of the time the doctors are using is to correct his disinformation.
If this thing is a war, he's a war criminal.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
The Travel ban had nothing to do with the pandemic, he was limiting people's access to America. Essentially, he was deciding who was worthy of being an American. The countries on the list had few if any SARS-Cov-2 victims. Any effect on limiting the virus was coincidental and weak; as we can see, it did little to hamper the spread of disease.
A travel ban from China, whoopdy doo! It’s not the only place that had it...
March 24th, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^
I guess it’s time to go die and kill others so the bankers can keep their yachts. This boils down to money being more important than peoples lives.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
“The China virus”. You racist dumbfuck.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
Huh? It came from China. Look at countless other viruses, they are named after where they come from. I honestly don’t get how that’s racist? All media outlets called it this or the Wuhan Virus until like a week ago.
Facts apparently don’t matter to many of you.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
No major media outlets called this the “wuhan virus” a couple of weeks ago. No major diseases are named after places in the 21st venture because it encourages stigma of those places and people.
Also motherfucker, you pretended to be Shea Patterson for six months to get attention from people you never met on a message board. Forgive the rest of us for laughing at your dumbass views.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
American assholes have a history of blaming other ethnic groups for things such as disease but never seem to look in the mirror themselves.
The Spanish Flu originated in Kansas, but was reported on extensively by Spain since they were neutral during WW1.
But you'll never see H1N1 called the American White Man Farmer's(The Only Reason We Make Money is Because Government "Subsidies" Which Totally Isn't Socialism) Pig Flu
Or Native Americans will never call smallpox "The European Invader's Fuck We Should Have Built a Wall to Keep These Assholes Out Virus.
March 25th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
Can you make those names a little more catchy and less of a mouth full
March 24th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
No major outlets? Not CNN and Anderson Cooper?
https://twitter.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1237054298988711937
March 24th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
Lyme disease, MERS and Ebola say hi
March 24th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
I never pretended to be anyone. It’s not my fault people have mob mentality on here. That was the case for this topic and the latter.
Name calling because you’re upset that I stated facts and because of who the president is and will be until 2025 is a “you” problem.
Is it racist to call Chinese food “Chinese”? How about only if you got sick from it?
Some of you are really wacko.
I bet all of you hating on our President will happily take your check that he’s trying to get for you. Notice which side is trying to sneak political agendas into something that will help all people making under 100k. Delay at the expensive of people’s lives. Cool!
March 24th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
Being useless (your usual shtick) is one thing. Being obnoxious and stupid is another.
Why the fuck would the American people thank Donald Trump for getting a whopping $1000 that they pay for with taxes. Or perhaps you're saying he's paying these out of his own pocket.
Trump just loves dumb motherfuckers like you. Seriously, you are the most ignorant asshole we've ever had on this board. Stop watching Fox News and think for yourself you racist asshat.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
Yeah, like how they named the Swine Flu the USA flu a few years back because thats where it came from...oh wait.
The fact is, the name is COVID-19, since you want to talk about how much facts matter to you.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
Things fucking change. We used to call ethnicities certain names (some of your ilk probably still do) and these are not acceptable.
The World Health Organization (I hear they also make tests for viruses) has issued guidance regarding disease naming in order to avoid fear and stigma. This dates to about 2015 after the other examples but long before COVID 19.
It's deliberate by Trump and all of those who repeat it and you're not fooling anyone.
The Spanish Flu, which is what I'm guessing you're referring to, started in Kansas.
But I doubt you care cus I'm sure you'd rather be racist and "trigger the libs"
Tell us you were calling it the China virus before Trump was. Face it MK, you put Trump before America.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
The "China virus" moniker as RACIST thing is silly and overblown. The Chinese government deserves some daggers for their early handling of this. They could have prevented the pandemic if they took the early warnings seriously and didn't actively try to silence the doctors raising the alarm.
The reason that Trump is calling it the "China Virus" is to try to somehow convince the nation that any fallout caused by the virus is not his fault and shouldn't be held against him in the polls. Anything positive in the economy is his doing; anything negative is the fault of someone else.
Well they started this shit with their bat eating, so yeah, its the fucking China virus.
He said it's a matter of weeks because he's worried the tanking economy is going to ruin his changes of being reelected and he wants to get the economy back up. Even though regardless of loosened restrictions, the economy will suck due to people self quarantining and people getting sick. His overeagerness and desire to get reelected is going to get people killed