So you have a basketball program again, what can we expect?
May's work has been incredible so far. Absolutely incredible.
- It seems he has the donors on board because you can't build a team through the portal without NIL money
- It appears he's in-step with admissions on who to recruit out of the portal
- He has built what looks like a very good diverse coaching staff of experience, recruiting, and development backgrounds
- He built a roster which should be competitive in year one, by targeting and getting his primary options
- The roster is also built for next year without requiring significant turnover
- He added two Freshman guards to start building the longer term roster
The guy has easily earned an A++++++++++++++++++++++++++ in his early efforts.
As far as expectations, here's a little context for the roster.
Here are the 247 transfer portal rankings:
- Wolf (19)
- *Goldin (33)
- Gayle Jr (48)
- Donaldson (73)
- Walters (152)
- Jones (237)
This ranks Michigan as the #5 portal class, which probably moves up 1 or 2 more spots once Goldin is official.
Per position rankings, the guards are good but not the top available. Gayle Jr is the 24th ranked guard one spot behind Dug McDaniel. Donaldson is the #34 ranked guard. Jones was significantly below that.
The two centers are #5 & #7. AWESOME!
Walters is the 51st ranked forward.
The majority of schools use the portal to build on an existing roster. May had to use it to build a roster. Michigan's starting floor is lower than most teams.
That said, I think May has done an excellent job getting players who make a team better than their individual parts. Guys like Jones and Wolf have not benefited from playing with other good players. While they are up transferring, the key skills I think they will contribute easily transfer across all levels of competition. Wolf's passing and floor spacing. Jones' shooting, decision making, and defense.
Guys like Gayle Jr., Donaldson, and Walters already know what P5 basketball is like and should be able to reach or exceed their previous performance as none of them were the key leaders for their previous teams and all are young enough to improve from development.
Looking at their previous stats the team looks like this:
- Donaldson: 6.7 pts, 3.2 ast, 2.4 reb, 1.4 stl
- Gayle Jr: 13.5 pts, 3.1 ast, 4.6 reb, 0.7 stl
- Jones: 12.1 pts, 3.7 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.5 stl
- Walters: 5.4 pts, 0.4 ast, 2.4 reb, 0.2 stl, 0.2 blk
- Wolf: 14.1 pts, 2.4 ast, 9.7 reb, 1.0 stl, 1.3 blk
- Goldin: 15.7 pts, 0.7 ast, 6.0 reb, 0.5 stl, 1.6 blk
- Tschetter: 4.7 pts, 0.6 ast, 2.4 reb, 0.2 stl, 0.1 blk
- Burnett: 9.6 pts, 2.4 ast, 4.1 rbs, 0.9 stl
- GWIII: 1.2 pts, 0.3 ast, 0.3 reb, 0.1 stl,
That adds up to per game averages of:
83 pts, 16.8 ast, 35.5 reb, 6.5 stl, 3.2 blk (blocks are front court only)
For reference, here's what the Final Four team stats were:
UConn: 81.4 pts, 18.7 ast, 38.8 reb, 6.2 stl, 5.4 blk
Purdue: 82.3 pts, 18.5 ast, 40.4 reb, 5.4 stl, 3.6 blk
Alabama: 90.8 pts, 16.1 ast, 39.6 reb, 7.3 stl, 4.2 blk
NC State: 75.6 pts, 13.1 ast, 35.3 reb, 7.2 stl, 3.6 blk
And for comparison sake alone, Michigan's stats for this past season:
72.9 pts, 12.5 ast, 35.4 reb, 4.2 stl, 3.6 blk
On paper...
Michigan has a team which should score more consistently. This team will have more scoring options with fewer weaknesses to exploit across various lineups.
Have a better flowing offense due to improved passing. I'm not worried about the turnover issues at previous schools. I trust May to clean that up plus all of the guys will be more experienced.
Michigan will probably have issues rebounding against some teams. A huge caveat needs to be said here. I loved Coach Howard, but what his teams did the past 2.5 years when it came to boxing out and rebounding was absolutely atrocious. Any coach and group of players was going to improve in this area over last year. So, the rebounding will be better than what we have seen, but rebounding is one of the areas where transferring up in competition is very hard. Wolf & Goldin will not be able to rebound on size alone. Jones, Goldin, and Wolf will find it more difficult to box out bigger guys on teams like MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin where they emphasize the importance of rebounding and have the athletes to do it.
Play better defense. I really like the length and flexibility of this team. May will have options for defensive sets and rotations. There should be fewer weaknesses to exploit with regards to athleticism and I trust the players and coaches will hold themselves accountable on exerting effort. Side note, in the Wolf Hello write up, there is a video clip against Kansas where Hunter Dickinson is closing out on Wolf for a three and he doesn't even raise a hand and stops his run through short. Anyone can shoot over a 7 foot card board cut out. That's the kind of shit I don't expect to see anymore.
What is realistic to expect?
Donaldson will probably improve his numbers across the board due to increased playing time and being the primary PG.
Gayle Jr will probably improve slightly due to development and being on a better team.
Jones will probably be about the same or he may take a slight regression. There is a good chance his assists go up.
Burnett's stats will probably go down due to fewer minutes.
Hopefully GWIII's stats go up as a back up instant offense guard for 5-8 consistent minutes a game. Much of that will depend on how good Pippen is. Regardless, a fifth guard will be needed.
Walters probably improves due to development and the need for his minutes and floor spacing.
Tschetter's stats probably go down due to decrease in minutes. I expect an increase in offensive fouls and fights as he will not constantly be winded and will probably run more people over.
Wolf's scoring and rebounding stats will probably go down due to reduced minutes and an increase in competition. His assists & blocks may go up as he will not need to conserve energy being the back up center with spot minutes at the four in a big lineup.
Goldin's stats probably go down a little due to the increase in competition level and probably slightly reduced minutes.
Mix that all together and I think a reasonable conference outlook is 9-11, 10-10, maybe 11-9 if May is as good as we think. Not enough is known about the non-conference to posit any guesses. While I think Brian's thoughts of a 6 seed are a little optimistic, I do think this team should be in solid position for a bid going into the Big Tournament.
TL, but I still read. Good stuff.
Let me say this. I was definitely in the camp that Dusty May was an over-rated hire. I equated him to Archie Miller: good coach who made his mark at a smaller school, but didn't have the chops to handle the big stage.
With that, I'm super impressed in how he's put together the roster. I'm thinking we make the tournament this coming year.
I don't understand how you could have compared him to Archie Miller. Miller coached at Dayton, which is consistently a good mid-major program. Many coaches have succeeded there. May took over one of the worst programs in the country, with almost no history of success at all before he got there. And he took them to the Final Four.
My guess is they end up a 7-9 seed depending on the length of the gelling process, that peaks as the season goes along, and no one wants to see in March.
Still setting my sights on a low win total, but I will up it to 13 wins - with gradual improvement that sets the team up for a 2008-09-style season where they get into the tournament as a lower seed. If everything goes right, I think 18 wins.
Small steps - even if the portal speeds things up way more than it used to in terms of program building.
Nah, this is just absurdly pessimistic barring injury. Zero chance this team only wins 3 more games than Beilein's first team that was pretty much devoid of any talent and size. I feel like people are either underestimating May as a coach significantly or the talent that he has miraculously managed to put together with predictions that pessimistic. With Goldin you have a roster with more talent than multiple teams that made the field last year.
if this team wins 13 games they will have massively underperformed
They will be better than Michigan BBall 2024. That’s all I care about.
I hate to bag on Juwan with everything he had going on health wise but this past years team would have won 13 games with better coaching.
They may have won 13 games if Dug wasn’t suspended for 6 games and if Nkamhoua didn’t get hurt. When those two things happened, the defensive effort went out the window and the season started circling the drain. But it’s hard to compare last season’s roster to this season’s because it’s entirely turned over. I mean, some people might have thought that Tray Jackson was a good addition, until he got here and had to play a big 10 schedule. I’m very excited to see how the pieces fit together, but I don’t have any expectations. This team is a complete unknown. Ceiling is high. Floor is low due to year 0, transfers jelling issues. I’d guess anywhere from 10 to 25 wins.
"I’d guess anywhere from 10 to 25 wins."
You have firmly drawn your line at Sleepy Bear Dunes...
Not knocking GW but he has to be thinking he made a bad choice. If he doesn’t show some immediate improvement , he will get buried on the depth chart
He seemed to have a pretty honest assessment of himself after year 1. Hopefully he is a guy who can show some signs as a sophomore for a breakout as a junior. I didn't get the impression that he expected more than that.
It may be 2024 and the NCAA may be dissolving like a mound of sugar in the rain ... but it's still legal for guys to stay in school and get better over the course of their four years. Let's applaud him for betting on himself here.
Other than potential NIL impacts, staying at Michigan is basically no different than transferring this year for GWIII. New coach, new teammates, new system to learn. It was worth sticking around to see how it goes. If it doesn’t work out, he can always transfer next season and this coaching staff has the connections to help him do that if that’s how it turns out. Staying really was a good choice for him.
If “bad choice” is “get paid to get a MICHIGAN degree,” then we should all be so lucky to have the opportunity to make that kind of a bad choice.
It should be more fun than the last couple seasons, so there's that.
realistic? final four of course.
probably a title.
IT'S TIME
Walters will be far better than his portal ranking . He will be a good one
I also think people are under selling Tschetter. He shot 50% from 3 on decent volume. Given that both of our 4's have good size with limited quickness that makes them iffy defenders but are ELITE 3 point shooters, it seems like May should be able to game plan around that to maximize their effectiveness.
Minimally, happy to have some excitement back. Last season was unwatchable.
That said, coach May's been impressive thus far - love his hustle and energy. And if the team is any reflection of the coach, we're in great shape. A few weeks ago, fielding a competent team was a legitimate concern; but now, competing for the tourney is definitely a realistic expectation.
Nice post, OP.
Do you have data to support this assertion?
"... rebounding is one of the areas where transferring up in competition is very hard."
It's not that I'd expect someone's rebounding numbers to improve when leveling up, but I've read that rebounding generally is something that translates well with a step up in competition.
Personal experience playing against a broad range of guys from DIII to DI.
It’s harder when the athletic skill set gets better and there are more of them on the court. A guy like Wolf will not have played the same level of athletes night in, night out like he will in the B1G. Same for a guy like Jones and Goldin. Fundamentals and effort are important but can not overcome a better athlete who also excels in those areas. That is what those guys will be adjusting to.
Not that your data doesn't matter (thanks), but here's larger set that's focused on college >>> NBA (rather than a step up in college):
"Rebounding is indeed the stat that translates best from one level to the other ..."
That is a hard comparison to make for many reasons. Every one drafted into the NBA is an elite athlete with natural gifts. Rebounds are still going to happen so the stats will be there regardless. Roster construction and style of play is also different. Just like there are 3 and D guys. There are more roles for D and rebounder in the NBA because they have designated scorers. So far, that strategy hasn’t been adopted into college as much. Thank goodness.
That article only looks at rookies and it is extrapolating to full game statistics. The majority of NBA rookies are not going to step in and be the team’s featured scorer so they have to do the other things. I would expect their rebounding and assist numbers to be higher on a full game average because that is what the team needs them to do for the minutes they are on the floor.
April 24th, 2024 at 12:26 AM ^
Ben Wallace went from a small school to the NBA and turned out to be a pretty good rebounder. Rebounding is one of the easiest skill to predict on all levels. Jaren Jackson is athletic and block shots yet he is a shitty rebounder.
He’s put together a roster that, on paper, can compete to make the tournament. But those pieces all have to come together and learn how to play together in a (relatively) short amount of time. That’s not a given.
If this team hits its ceiling, makes a best case scenario, they can absolutely be a protected seed in the tournament next year. But I still expect to see growing pains next year. These are a bunch of guys who’ve never played together. I think being a bubble team is a reasonable expectation, but if they make the tournament next year, that’s a freaking awesome coaching job by May.
All I really expect to see is just getting better week to week. This is still Year 1 of an entirely new regime.
Success:
- Getting the team to the tourney
Turning Jace into a legit contributor to the team (assuming he stays with the team). *
*what a storyline that would be
Someone has to explain the love affair Michigan fans have with Jace Howard? Do people love how often he falls?
May shouldn’t attempt to turn him into anything.
I mean, if he's on the team, then the coach should probably try to make him better. I'm not sure why you'd have an issue with that.
I have ZERO love or hate for Jace other than it would be something if it turns out that it is Dusty and his staff who end up making him a contributor in his final year on the team...something his own father was incapable of doing. That's it. Nothing more.
I think he has done a great job, given the circumstances. The team he has now sets a pretty good floor. The next step is either proving he can find hidden gems like Beilein did, or proving he can recruit legitimate NBA talent (or both, I suppose). It will take several years of recruiting to get an answer on that
I wonder if Devin Funchess has any eligibility left!
April 24th, 2024 at 12:34 AM ^
Would have been interesting to have seen Funchess on Beilein's teams...
In very limited situations, we could go with a line up that is 7'2, 7'0, 6'10, 6'4, 6'5. That could be fun.
Until we have to defend quick wings...
If they’re .500 and play watchable ball I’ll be satisfied with year 0. I think their likely outcome is better than that, in the 6-9 seed range, but honestly just be competent and fun is all I ask for this year. Would be very nice to get a tourney bid though, as this is the kind of roster that could be playing way above their seed line come March once everyone has gelled.
As long as we don’t play with our heads up our asses in the 2nd half of games, I would be thrilled. Can’t count how many half time leads we had and just completely fell apart every 2nd half. It was so frustrating. I’m sure May’s teams will not shit the bed the 2nd half of games. That in itself would be a huge improvement.
The 2nd half woes reflect a lack of depth, compound by the suspension of Dug and the injury to Nkamhoua.
April 24th, 2024 at 12:19 AM ^
Thumbs up great comment some others just dont seem to understand the game of Bball
So coaching had nothing to do at all with the constant pattern of giving up 2nd half leads?
They gave up second half leads before Dug's suspension and the injury to Nkamhoua.
That's the kind of shit I don't expect to see anymore.
But I thought "this shit works"?
Seriously, great stuff.
Final Four or bust.
Welcome to Michigan, Dusty. Howard made the Elite 8 so he better, right!?! /s
It's funny now but it won't take long for expectations to go through the roof if he wins a few games. I'm really looking forward to this season. Should be fun and anything they accomplish will be all gravy.
Keep expectations low and get a surprise vs being let down.
Good diary
Tournament team and best front court in the Big Ten if Goldin commits
Probably National Champs.
April 23rd, 2024 at 11:13 PM ^
username checks out
I have serious concerns that the kid from Yale is too big of an academic risk.
/s